炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：一观大势 核心观点：政策预期有望上修，市场交投有望活跃，在较长时间的横盘震荡后，中国"转型牛"将重振旗 鼓，拾级而上并站上新高度。跨年攻势已经开始，看好科技/券商保险/消费。 摘要 ▶在较长时间的横盘震荡后，中国"转型牛"将重振旗鼓，拾级而上。11月24日上证指数跌至3800点悲观 之际，国泰海通策略团队判断"关键位置：进入击球区，布出先手棋"，近两周以来创业板指已基本收复 失地。对于后市，国泰海通比市场共识更乐观：部分投资者以"跨周期"解读政策不积极存在谬误，2025 年超常规是相较以2024年尾部风险暴露。面向2026年，中央经济工作会议明确"巩固拓展经济稳中向好 势头"，并要求财政政策"更加积极"与"内需主导"，首次提出"推动投资止跌回稳"（2025年负增长）， 并时隔十年重提房地产"去库存"；中财办副主任韩文秀表示将根据形势变化出台实施增量政策，继续实 施"国补"与靠前实施"十五五"重点项目，隐含了实现"十五五"良好开局的开门红重要性。考虑近期经济 活动转淡与房地产销售面积下滑加快，政策预期有望上修。在人民币稳定的前提下， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-banking financial sector, indicating an "Overweight" rating for the industry, suggesting it is expected to outperform the overall market in the coming months [66]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the central government's economic meetings have emphasized the need for structural reforms in the financial sector, aiming for a more efficient capital market and improved financial supply-side reforms [2][21]. - The insurance sector is expected to undergo a systematic revaluation, driven by the asset side's influence on company valuations, with a focus on sustainable business models and risk management [2][10]. - The brokerage sector is currently experiencing a mismatch between fundamentals and valuations, with potential catalysts including mergers and acquisitions and upcoming performance reports [2][5]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,580.95 with a slight decline of -0.08%, while the non-banking index rose by 0.81% to 1,991.97. The brokerage, insurance, and diversified financial sectors reported respective changes of +0.31%, +2.36%, and -1.62% [5][6]. Non-Banking Industry Data - As of December 12, 2025, the average daily trading volume in the stock market was 18,247.40 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 14.23% from the previous month [15][44]. - The financing balance in the margin trading market reached 25,079.82 billion yuan, an increase of 34.5% compared to the end of 2024 [15][48]. Non-Banking Industry News - The central bank reported that in the first eleven months of 2025, RMB loans increased by 15.36 trillion yuan, and the total social financing scale reached 33.39 trillion yuan, exceeding last year's total [16]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is set to introduce new regulations on public fund sales to address long-standing issues in the industry [17]. Individual Stock Highlights - China Life Insurance reported total premiums exceeding 700 billion yuan as of November 30, 2025 [29]. - The brokerage sector saw significant stock performance, with Guotai Junan and CITIC Securities leading in gains [7][12].

行 业 及 产 业 非银金融 头部非银机构监管红利有望释放 2025 年 12 月 14 日 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 孙冀齐 A0230523110001 sunjq@swsresearch.com 金黎丹 A0230525060004 jinld@swsresearch.com 联系人 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 看好 ——非银金融行业周报（2025/12/8-2025/12/12） 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 - ⚫ 券商：本周申万券商 II 指数收涨 0.31%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.39pct。1）中央政治局会议： 2025/12/8，中央政治局会议召开，分析研究 2026 年经济工作。会议指出明年经济工作要坚持 "稳中求进、提质增效"（2025 年表述为"稳中求进、以进促稳，守正创新、先立后破，系统集 成、协同配合"）。就证 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The non-bank financial index increased by 0.81%, outperforming the CSI 300 index which decreased by 0.08%. The brokerage and insurance sectors continue to show good trends, with valuations at low levels and relatively stagnant performance throughout the year. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are beneficial for the equity market, directly favoring the profitability of securities firms' overseas businesses due to lower liability costs and asset expansion [4][5] - The average daily trading volume of stock funds reached 2.39 trillion, a 15.1% increase month-on-month, indicating a recovery in trading activity. The cumulative average daily trading volume for the year is 2.05 trillion, a 69.5% year-on-year increase [5] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission's recent positive stance signals a potential "policy easing period" for the industry, which may lead to an increase in leverage limits and support for the profitability of the securities industry. The report recommends focusing on strategic opportunities in undervalued leading companies in the brokerage and insurance sectors [5][6] Summary by Sections Brokerage Sector - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are favorable for the overseas business of brokerages, and new regulations are set to standardize fund sales practices. The report highlights three main lines of recommended stocks: Huatai Securities, Guotai Junan, and CICC for their advantages in overseas and institutional business; GF Securities and Dongfang Securities for their wealth management strengths; and Guosen Securities for its retail advantages [5][6][7] Insurance Sector - The liability side is expected to achieve a "good start," with the transformation of dividend insurance continuing to progress. The demand for "savings" from residents is likely to persist, and the insurance distribution channel is expected to maintain high growth. On the asset side, stable long-term interest rates and a favorable equity market are expected to boost investment returns in the medium to long term [6][7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant changes at Dongfang Securities under the leadership of Gong Dexiong, who implemented a complete overhaul of the executive team and leadership in asset management and fund companies, resulting in increased revenue and profit by 2025 [1][20] - The company experienced a nearly 40% reduction in asset management scale, raising concerns, but by the third quarter, asset management income began to recover, indicating that the reform measures were starting to take effect [3][20] - Gong Dexiong's sudden departure from Dongfang Securities has raised questions about the sustainability of the company's performance and the future direction of its reforms [3][20] Group 2 - Gong Dexiong has taken on a new role as Deputy Secretary and President of Shanghai International Group, which oversees major banks and insurance companies, indicating a shift to a higher level of responsibility [5][22] - Shanghai International Group is focused on financial state-owned asset integration, emphasizing collaboration among its subsidiaries in securities, banking, insurance, and financial markets, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency [7][24] - The merger of Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities, supported by a significant financial investment from Shanghai International Group, illustrates Gong's capability to manage not only his own company but also to participate in broader financial resource integration [9][26] Group 3 - Industry experts speculate that Gong's appointment may accelerate the integration of Shanghai's financial system, leveraging his experience with local core brokerages to navigate the complexities of the sector [11][28] - The changes in leadership are expected to impact not only the industry landscape but also the services available to ordinary investors, enhancing the professionalism and personalization of financial services [14][30] - The departure of a decisive leader like Gong may lead to short-term adjustments within Dongfang Securities, but the reforms implemented over the past two years have already transformed the company's structure and culture [16][32] Group 4 - Gong Dexiong's transition is seen as a critical move in Shanghai's financial landscape, with expectations for new developments in state-owned asset integration and collaborative services that could lead to significant changes in the market [18][34]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that new regulations in fund sales are reshaping the fund ecosystem, creating opportunities for investment as the spring market approaches [1][2] - The insurance sector is expected to see high growth in performance, supported by the introduction of a new commercial health insurance drug directory, which encourages product innovation [2][16] - The report suggests focusing on specific stocks within the insurance sector, including Xinhua Insurance, China Life, Ping An, and others, as they are likely to benefit from these developments [2][16] Weekly Performance - As of December 13, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index reported a decrease of 0.34%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.84% [11] - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.95 trillion yuan, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 15.14% [6] Industry Dynamics and Weekly Commentary Insurance Sector - The performance of listed insurance companies is expected to continue high growth, with long-term interest rate spreads showing marginal improvement [13][16] - The 10-year government bond yield was 1.84%, down 1 basis point from the previous week, providing a supportive environment for insurance stock valuations [13][16] Securities Sector - The issuance of the "Publicly Raised Securities Investment Fund Sales Behavior Norms (Draft for Comments)" aims to systematically regulate sales behavior and protect investor rights [17][18] - The new regulations mark a shift from a scale-driven approach to one focused on investor interests, promoting a fundamental transformation in the industry [18][23] Key Company Valuation and Financial Analysis - The report provides detailed valuation metrics for key companies in the insurance and securities sectors, indicating a "Buy" rating for several firms based on their projected earnings and price-to-earnings ratios [7][8] - For instance, Ping An is rated with a target price of 76.65 yuan per share, while Xinhua Insurance has a target price of 94.21 yuan per share, reflecting strong expected performance [7] Regulatory and Policy Environment - The national financial system work conference emphasized the need for risk prevention, strong regulation, and promotion of high-quality development in the financial sector [25][26] - The focus will be on stabilizing the market, enhancing financial governance, and addressing local government debt risks, which will shape the future landscape of the financial industry [25][29]

Group 1 - Since 2025, a total of 1,468 A-share listed companies have implemented share buybacks, with a cumulative buyback amount of 137.5 billion yuan [1] - Among these companies, 14 have repurchased more than 1 billion yuan, including Midea Group, Kweichow Moutai, CATL, XCMG, Muyuan Foods, COSCO Shipping Holdings, WuXi AppTec, Hikvision, BOE Technology Group, SF Holding, Sanan Optoelectronics, Sany Heavy Industry, Guotai Junan, and Haier Smart Home [1] - Midea Group leads in buyback amount, with a total of 11.545 billion yuan [1]

（原标题：国泰海通大宗交易成交1852.47万元，买方为机构专用席位） 国泰海通12月12日大宗交易平台出现一笔成交，成交量91.12万股，成交金额1852.47万元，大宗交易成 交价为20.33元。该笔交易的买方营业部为机构专用，卖方营业部为瑞银证券有限责任公司上海花园石 桥路证券营业部。 进一步统计，近3个月内该股累计发生2笔大宗交易，合计成交金额为2080.97万元。 证券时报•数据宝统计显示，国泰海通今日收盘价为20.33元，上涨0.79%，日换手率为1.22%，成交额为 33.46亿元，全天主力资金净流入3.28亿元，近5日该股累计上涨3.04%，近5日资金合计净流出6114.83万 元。 两融数据显示，该股最新融资余额为72.55亿元，近5日减少1.45亿元，降幅为1.95%。 据天眼查APP显示，国泰海通证券股份有限公司成立于1999年08月18日，注册资本1762892.5829万人民 币。（数据宝） 注：本文系新闻报道，不构成投资建议，股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 12月12日国泰海通大宗交易一览 | 成交量 | 成交金 | 成交价 | 相对当日 | | | | --- | --- | --- ...

《国泰海通证券股份有限公司关于间接全资子公司发行债券并由全资子公司提供担保的公告》 截至2025年12月12日收盘，国泰海通（601211）报收于20.33元，较前一交易日上涨0.79%，最新总市值 为3583.96亿元。该股当日开盘20.11元，最高20.47元，最低19.85元，成交额达33.46亿元，换手率为 1.22%。 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成 投资建议。 最新公告列表 公司近日发布公告称，其间接全资子公司GUOTAI JUNAN HOLDINGS LIMITED于2025年12月11日发行 5亿元债券，由全资子公司国泰海通金融控股提供担保，担保金额为5.13亿元人民币。本次担保为无条 件及不可撤销的保证担保，担保范围包括债券本金、利息及其他付款义务。被担保人资产负债率超过 70%，但公司对其拥有100%控股权，担保风险可控。截至公告日，公司及其控股子公司对外担保总额 为373.70亿元人民币，占最近一期经审计净资产的21.88%，无逾期担保。 ...

| | | | | | 發開手落在國君話 | 卖出营业部 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 2025-12-12 | 证券高标 國泰海通 | 证券代码 601211 | 成交价(元) 成交金额(万元) 成交量( *) 买入营业部 机构专用 | 91.12 | 20.33 1852.47 | | 是否为专场 KO | 12月12日，国泰海通大宗交易成交91.12万股，成交额1852.47万元，占当日总成交额的0.55%，成交价 20.33元，较市场收盘价20.33元持平。 ...