| | | | | | 發開手落在國君話 | 卖出营业部 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 2025-12-12 | 证券高标 國泰海通 | 证券代码 601211 | 成交价(元) 成交金额(万元) 成交量( *) 买入营业部 机构专用 | 91.12 | 20.33 1852.47 | | 是否为专场 KO | 12月12日，国泰海通大宗交易成交91.12万股，成交额1852.47万元，占当日总成交额的0.55%，成交价 20.33元，较市场收盘价20.33元持平。 ...

每经记者｜王海慜 每经编辑｜叶峰 日前，深交所在《关于对中节能铁汉生态环境股份有限公司及相关当事人的监管函》中披露，2023年12 月8日，深交所受理节能铁汉发行股份购买资产并募集配套资金申请，标的公司为大地修复。根据当时 披露的交易报告书草案，大地修复对环境修复项目按履约进度确认收入，履约进度按照各项目实际累计 发生成本占合同预计总成本的比例确定，且有供应商产值确认表、客户或监理确认单双重佐证。节能铁 汉在回复深交所审核问询时，声称大地修复收入确认相关内控制度健全且有效执行。 然而，深交所核查结果却与节能铁汉披露内容存在显著偏差。经查，大地修复部分项目存在提前确认收 入的情况，对其2022年、2023年财务数据产生直接影响：2022年、2023年营业收入的影响金额分别为 6638.64万元、-473.77万元，占其当期营业收入的比例分别为11.35%、-0.81%，对其当期利润总额的影 响金额分别为1695.41万元、-63.49万元，占其当期利润总额的比例分别为46.98%、-1.13%。与此同时， 大地修复2022年和2023年前十大项目之一曾于2022年12月调整了项目预算，2022年全年及之后的履约 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guotai Junan Securities (601211) has entered into a strategic cooperation agreement with Anhui Investment Group, focusing on tailored service solutions throughout the corporate lifecycle [1] Group 1: Strategic Cooperation - The partnership aims to enhance collaboration in various areas including industrial funds, mergers and acquisitions, bond financing, REITs issuance, and the construction of industrial ecosystems [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan indicates significant changes in bank liabilities by 2025, with a shortening of deposit maturities and an accelerated repricing rhythm, which will support future interest margins. The expected decline in bank interest margins for 2026 is around 5 basis points, with downward pressure continuing to ease marginally, and some banks may see their margins stabilize [1]. Liability Side - The cost of liabilities is expected to improve significantly in 2025, with a 28 basis point decrease in the first half of the year compared to only a 4 basis point decrease in the same period last year. This improvement is primarily driven by a 19 basis point reduction in deposit costs and a 7 basis point reduction in interbank liabilities [1]. - The proportion of deposits maturing within 1-5 years has shown a downward turning point since 2024, decreasing by 1.5 percentage points to 22.6% by the end of Q2 2025. Banks in Ningbo, Chongqing, and Changshu have seen declines exceeding 10 percentage points [2]. - The high growth trend of time deposits has moderated, with the proportion of time deposits increasing by less than 1% in the first ten months of this year, significantly lower than in previous years. This trend is expected to lead to a more liquid deposit structure due to the ongoing diversification of residents' asset allocation needs [2]. Price Factors - Regulatory focus on maintaining reasonable levels of bank interest margins has increased, with monetary policy reports prioritizing the reduction of bank liability costs. The interest rate cuts in May saw a greater reduction in long-term deposit rates compared to loans, and this trend is expected to continue [3]. - The cost-saving effects of repricing long-term deposits after multiple rate cuts are anticipated to be significant, with potential maximum reductions of over 100 basis points for three-year deposits. Banks such as Chongqing, Bank of Communications, Jiangsu, and Nanjing may have substantial room for cost improvement [3]. Asset Side - The pressure on loan repricing is expected to ease, with a 10 basis point reduction in the five-year LPR in 2025, which is less than the 50 basis point reduction from the previous year. The narrowing gap between stock and new loan rates suggests limited future declines in loan rates [4]. - Following debt replacement, the statutory debt rates will be significantly lower than implicit debt rates, leading to a projected decline in asset yields, estimated to drag down net interest margins by about 4 basis points for listed banks [4]. - The rapid decline in interest rates for newly issued bonds has widened the gap with the yields on existing bank bonds. As banks reconfigure their bond holdings and sell existing bonds to realize gains, the investment yields on bank bonds are expected to face downward pressure, with an estimated drag of about 6 basis points on interest margins from bonds maturing within one year [4]. Net Interest Margin Outlook - The expected decline in net interest margins for 2026 is projected to be around 5 basis points, with asset yield declines estimated at 17 basis points. The contributions to this decline include 4 basis points from loan repricing, 4 basis points from debt replacement, and 6 basis points from bond maturity reconfiguration. On the liability side, the cost rate improvement is expected to be around 13 basis points, with deposit cost improvements contributing 17 basis points [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 outlines the economic work for 2025 and sets the direction for 2026, emphasizing the importance of expanding domestic demand in the short term and strengthening internal capabilities in the medium to long term [1] Group 1: Macroeconomic Policy - The macroeconomic policy maintains a "more proactive and effective" tone, focusing on internal conditions and medium to long-term issues, with a shift in external environment assessment from "adverse" in 2024 to neutral in 2025 [1] - It is expected that the macroeconomic policy will continue the positive tone established in 2025 into 2026 [1] Group 2: Domestic Demand and Investment - The emphasis is on domestic demand, with clear strategies for investment and service consumption, aiming to "stop the decline and stabilize investment," while maintaining a stable narrow deficit ratio [1] - The use of new policy financial tools will continue to support investment, and reforms will be implemented to promote service consumption, stimulating demand through supply [1] Group 3: Social Stability - Ensuring stable livelihoods remains a priority, with measures in healthcare, education, employment, and medical care, indicating a focus on both the quantity and quality of supply to stabilize livelihoods [1] - The economic growth target for 2026 is expected to remain relatively stable, balancing growth stability and expectations [1] Group 4: Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy will continue to be more proactive, maintaining necessary fiscal deficits, total debt scale, and expenditure levels, with the deficit ratio expected to remain stable in 2026 [2] - There will be a focus on standardizing tax incentives and fiscal subsidy policies, aiming to address local protectionism and "involution" competition [2] Group 5: Monetary Policy - The monetary policy will continue to adopt an "appropriately loose" stance, emphasizing the flexible and efficient use of various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [2] - The shift from "timely" to "flexible and efficient" indicates a greater focus on the effectiveness of monetary policy, with an emphasis on both short-term and long-term adjustments to address structural and deep-seated economic issues [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that British American Tobacco (BTI.US) is expected to see accelerated growth in its new tobacco business in the second half of 2025, benefiting from a favorable industry environment and product lifecycle expansion [1] - The HNB (Heated Not Burned) segment is showing positive feedback for new products, with a goal for global expansion in 2026, despite a slight decline in market share for the Glo brand in 2025 due to competition [1] - The Glo Hilo product has achieved a 1% market share in Japan and is gaining traction in Poland and Italy, with expectations for stabilization and recovery in market share by 2026 [1] Group 2 - The vaping segment continues to benefit from an improved market environment, with a projected revenue increase in the second half of 2025, following a 13% year-on-year decline in the first half [2] - The Vuse brand has seen a 0.1 percentage point increase in market share, particularly in the U.S. where it rose by 0.7 percentage points, despite some growth being impacted by illegal vaping products in Canada [2] - The new oral tobacco product Velo Plus is expected to drive significant growth in the U.S. market, with a projected increase in market share by 9.2 percentage points to 15.6% and a global market share increase of 5.9 percentage points to 31.8% [2] Group 3 - Traditional cigarette operations remain stable, with a slight decline in market share of 0.1 percentage points, but a positive outlook for the second half of 2025 driven by improved conditions in the U.S. market [3] - The company anticipates a revenue and adjusted operating profit growth of approximately 2% for the fiscal year 2025, with accelerated growth in new tobacco revenue expected to achieve double-digit growth in the second half [3] - The company plans to increase its share buyback program to £1.3 billion in 2026, up from £1.1 billion in 2025 [3]

12月10日至11日召开的中央经济工作会议总结2025年经济工作，分析当前经济形势，部署2026年经济工 作。国泰海通策略首席分析师方奕在接受证券时报记者采访时指出，继2024年中央经济工作会议首次提 出资本市场改革后，此次会议再度明确提及资本市场，提出"持续深化资本市场投融资综合改革"，资本 市场改革目标和方向没有变，提高资本市场制度包容性、适应性，健全投资和融资相协调的资本市场功 能是资本市场改革的重要方向。 方奕认为，后续政策核心将在于强化企业创新主体地位，推动科技创新和产业创新深度融合，完善科技 金融体系，推动财政、金融资源向科技创新项目集中，以及优化人才生态，制定一体推进教育科技人才 发展方案。 方奕认为，新一轮资本市场改革将主要聚焦围绕推动双创改革优化上市公司结构、深化并购重组改革、 加强投资者回报、营造"长钱长投"制度环境与提高中长期资金投资A股的规模和比重，扩大资本市场制 度型开放以及提升外资参与便利度等方面进一步展开。 在科技创新方面，"坚持创新驱动，加紧培育壮大新动能"这一理念体现了我国在新发展阶段对科技自立 自强和高质量发展的战略决心。方奕表示，当前科技创新正成为提升全要素生产率、优化供 ...

本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： ● 担保对象及基本情况 ■ 1（本公告所述担保金额、担保余额及担保总额在计算时未包含浮动利率票据、债券、贷款等利息，浮 动利率利息需根据实际情况确定。本公告所载金额涉及汇率的，按2025年11月末美元兑换人民币中间 价、欧元兑换人民币中间价、港元兑换人民币中间价（1美元=7.0789元人民币、1欧元=8.2078元人民 币、1港元=0.90990元人民币）折算。） ● 累计担保情况 （一）基本情况 ■ ■ 一、担保情况概述 （一）担保的基本情况 国泰海通证券股份有限公司（以下简称公司或本公司）境外全资子公司国泰海通金融控股有限公司（以 下简称国泰海通金融控股）的全资附属公司GUOTAI JUNAN HOLDINGS LIMITED（以下简称发行人或 被担保人）于2025年12月11日发行金额为5亿元的债券，此债券由国泰海通金融控股提供担保。 国泰海通金融控股作为担保人，为发行人本次发行项下的偿付义务提供无条件及不可撤销的保证担保， 担保范围包括债券本金、利息及交易 ...

东兴证券指出，当下时点，险资的资本市场"稳定器"作用显得尤为重要。本次监管层降低险资部分投资 品种的风险因子，在推动资本市场平稳健康发展的同时，亦有望提升险企资金运用效率和投资收益，进 而提升险企经营业绩。此外，资本市场运行环境的改善亦将直接推动券商业绩释放。从投资标的看，当 前非银行业的马太效应不断增强，行业头部机构更有能力和机会参与政策创新，把握政策红利窗口期， 提升自身经营业绩，故建议持续重点关注行业头部公司的投资价值。此外，在ETF蓬勃发展的大背景 下，出于投资需求的差异化，证券、保险ETF的投资价值也应继续重点关注。 保险证券ETF紧密跟踪中证800证券保险指数，中证800证券保险指数是在中证800指数的基础上，选择 证券保险行业内对应的证券作为指数样本，为投资者提供更多样化的投资标的。 数据显示，截至2025年11月28日，中证800证券保险指数(399966)前十大权重股分别为中国平安 (601318)、东方财富(300059)、中信证券(600030)、国泰海通(601211)、中国太保(601601)、华泰证券 (601688)、中国人寿(601628)、广发证券(000776)、招商证券( ...

Core Viewpoint - Lithium carbonate prices continue to rise, with the main contract increasing by 3.97%, approaching the 100,000 yuan mark, indicating strong market interest and trading activity [1] Group 1: Long Position Analysis - The top 20 long positions increased by 26,037 contracts to a total of 405,696 contracts, with Yong'an Futures leading by adding 6,551 contracts, bringing its total long position to 34,479 contracts [3] - Guotai Junan and Yide Futures also increased their positions by 4,097 contracts and 4,115 contracts, respectively, with total long positions reaching 96,472 contracts and 9,058 contracts [3] - Other firms like Zhongcai Futures, Nanhua Futures, Donghai Futures, and Shenyin Wanguo Futures also added to their long positions, indicating a strong consensus among long positions [3] Group 2: Short Position Analysis - The top 20 short positions increased by 23,012 contracts to a total of 503,438 contracts, with Dongzheng Futures and Citic Futures being the main contributors, adding 4,856 contracts and 3,597 contracts, respectively [4] - Other firms like Guotai Futures and Xinhai Futures also increased their short positions, indicating a defensive stance against the long positions [4] - Galaxy Futures increased both long and short positions, resulting in a net increase in short positions by 1,594 contracts, while Guangfa Futures reduced its net short position by 1,636 contracts [4] Group 3: Market Fundamentals - The current market focus is on the recovery pace of major manufacturers and the sustainability of off-season demand, with lithium ore recovery lagging behind expectations [5] - Despite a slight decline in passenger vehicle orders, strong performance in the energy storage and commercial vehicle sectors is supporting overall demand stability [5] - Domestic lithium carbonate production is expected to continue growing in December, although the overall increase will be limited, maintaining a tight supply-demand balance in the short term [5]