印尼禁止煤炭出口，国内煤炭市场或将紧张，国内煤价将提前止跌企稳。 投资建议。当前煤炭价格已经处于预期底部，估值明显偏低，伴随动力煤长协基准提升、焦煤长协价预 计维持高位，资源优质企业具备长期价值，转型企业具备成长空间，板块估值提升开启，1）当前首 推：中国神华、靖远煤电、电投能源、兖矿能源、中国旭阳集团；2）推荐：陕西煤业、淮北矿业、中 煤能源、山西焦煤、潞安环能、兰花科创、盘江股份、平煤股份。 1）事件：根据12月31日印尼政府新规，2022年1月禁止煤炭出口。 2）本次印尼限制煤炭出口，我们认为核心原因在于印尼煤炭产量不及预期，且国内消费量增加，导致 煤炭供不应求。印尼矿产能源部公布最新统计数据显示，截至12月17日印尼煤炭开采量达5.81亿吨，完 成年度产量目标的93%，全年产量预计略低于6.25亿吨目标， 2022 年煤炭产量目标提高到 6.37 ~6.64 亿 吨，但由于国内需求提升，出口潜力将有下降。 3）中国2020年/2021年1-11月进口煤及褐煤30399/29232万吨，其中来自印尼13783/17822万吨，占进口 45%/61%、占国内产量3.6%/4.9%，印尼煤供应对国内影响巨大 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that coal companies are expected to report strong earnings growth for 2021, with profit growth rates of 514%, -125% (turning profitable), 475%, and 62% for various companies, indicating a significant improvement in profitability despite a drop in coal prices due to regulatory measures [1] - The coal price has rebounded significantly, with Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal prices exceeding 1000 yuan/ton, reflecting a 30% increase from the bottom, driven by export restrictions from Indonesia and mandatory inventory replenishment by power plants [1] - The overall economic growth is expected to stabilize, enhancing demand support, which will benefit coal as a primary energy source, alongside a recovery in the coal-coke-steel industry chain [1] Group 2 - High dividends are anticipated to continue, leading to a long-term increase in coal sector valuations, as companies are expected to disclose new shareholder return plans after March 2022 [2] - The capital expenditure in the coal industry has peaked, and with the trend towards "carbon neutrality," capital spending is expected to decline, optimizing the relationship between capital expenditure, cash flow, financials, profits, and dividends [2] - The coal sector is currently at a valuation bottom, with undervalued stocks, and companies with high dividends and those transitioning to green energy are expected to see valuation increases [2]

Core Viewpoint - The coal prices have significantly increased since the beginning of the year, and the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has intervened to stabilize supply and prices, indicating that coal prices will operate at the upper limit of a reasonable range. The focus for coal stock investments should shift towards high dividends and transformation opportunities throughout the year [1]. Investment Highlights - Since the beginning of the year, coal prices have continued to rise, supported by fundamentals. The spot price of Qinhuangdao (Q5500) coal increased from 790 RMB/ton at the beginning of January to 1070 RMB/ton by the end of January. The rise is attributed to the rapid decline in port coal prices and the inversion of pit coal prices, leading to decreased enthusiasm among traders to pull coal to ports and low port inventories. The sentiment was further catalyzed by Indonesia's announcement to restrict coal exports. Demand has exceeded expectations due to strong electricity consumption and power plant restocking, with economic growth policies expected to further strengthen demand, providing effective support for coal prices [2]. - The NDRC has taken measures to consolidate supply and price stability, indicating that coal prices will operate at the upper limit of a reasonable range. A meeting held on February 9 emphasized that coal companies should resume normal production and supply, strictly implement supply and price stabilization policies, and regulate pricing behavior. It is believed that the rise in coal prices may pause, but there is no risk of a rapid short-term decline due to factors such as increased demand for coal and electricity from a cold spring and economic growth, as well as the increase in Indonesia's benchmark coal price to 188.4 USD/ton, which translates to a domestic cost of over 1237 RMB/ton, exceeding domestic coal prices, limiting the increase in imported coal supply [2]. Investment Strategy - In 2022, investments in coal stocks should not overly focus on coal prices but rather seek alpha opportunities, as high dividends and transformation present greater potential for increases. Following the volatility in the coal market in 2021, the government has sufficient means to maintain price stability. The significant rise in prices leading to high earnings elasticity is unlikely to occur in 2022. However, the government shows tolerance for relatively high coal prices, which are expected to fluctuate at high levels. The long-term contract prices have significantly increased year-on-year, leading to an elevation in corporate profit levels. Value discovery will be the main theme for coal stock investments in 2022. The long-term contract price for Qinhuangdao Q5500 coal in February 2022 was 725 RMB/ton, and under the new mechanism, high long-term contract prices are expected to be maintained, leading to sustainable optimization in capital expenditure, cash flow, finance, profit, and dividends. New dividend plans are anticipated following the disclosure of annual reports by coal companies in March 2022. Additionally, the government encourages the construction of photovoltaic projects to address mining subsidence, suggesting that some coal companies may leverage local resources to acquire green energy projects, accelerating transformation [3]. Investment Recommendations - The coal sector is currently at a projected bottom, with valuations significantly low. With the increase in benchmark long-term contract prices for thermal coal and expected high prices for coking coal, high-quality resource companies possess long-term value, while transformation companies have growth potential. The sector is set to see valuation increases. The main investment themes for the year include high dividends, green energy transformation, and growth-oriented coal chemical projects. Recommended companies include China Shenhua, Jingyuan Coal Electricity, Energy Investment, Yanzhou Coal, China Xuyang Group, and Baofeng Energy. Additionally, high-quality resource companies recommended are Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, Huaibei Mining, China Coal Energy, Shanxi Coking Coal, Lu'an Environmental Energy, Lanhua Sci-Tech, Panjiang Coal and Electricity, and Pingdingshan Coal [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4][7]. Core Insights - The coal price adjustment has been ongoing for nearly four years since the historical peak in Q4 2021, with prices generally returning to levels before the recent uptrend. The market is now aware of the price decline, indicating that the bottom may be near. It is essential to understand the industry's fundamental attributes and maintain confidence and determination [3]. - As of April 2025, Australian coal exports totaled 104 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.1%. In April alone, exports were 26.53 million tons, down 3.7% year-on-year and 12.3% month-on-month [2][6]. - Domestic coal companies are increasingly facing losses, with over half (54.8%) reporting losses as of March 2025. This trend may lead to both passive and active production cuts as prices continue to decline [3]. Summary by Sections Coal Mining Exports - In the first four months of 2025, Australian coal exports decreased by 8.1% year-on-year, totaling 104 million tons. April's exports were 26.53 million tons, reflecting a 3.7% year-on-year decline and a 12.3% month-on-month decline [2][6]. Price Trends - As of May 16, 2025, coal prices showed mixed trends: Newcastle port coal (6000K) was priced at $99.0 per ton (up 0.1), while European ARA port coal was at $94.5 per ton (down 2.6) [35]. The IPE South African Richards Bay coal futures settled at $87.60 per ton (down 1.4) [35]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends several coal companies, including: - China Shenhua (601088.SH) - Buy - Shaanxi Coal (601225.SH) - Buy - China Qinfa (00866.HK) - Buy - China Coal Energy (601898.SH) - Buy - Electric Power Energy (002128.SZ) - Buy - Jinneng Holding (601001.SH) - Buy - Yancoal (600188.SH) - Buy - New Hope Energy (601918.SH) - Buy [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal price expectations are beginning to improve as port inventory decreases and power plant replenishment demand becomes evident [1][7] - The supply side is tightening due to safety and environmental inspections leading to temporary mine closures, while demand remains supported by non-electric sectors [5][15] - The report highlights the investment value of coal companies, particularly those with high dividends and strong cash flows, amidst market volatility [7][81] Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal - The port coal price decline has narrowed to 16 CNY/ton this week, down from 22 CNY/ton the previous week, indicating a potential stabilization [15][79] - The production capacity utilization in the main producing areas has decreased by 0.99 percentage points due to inspections and maintenance [15][79] - Coastal and inland power plant coal inventories are relatively low compared to last year, with a total of 11,478 million tons as of May 14, 2025, which is 146 million tons lower than the same period last year [15][79] 2. Coking Coal - The production of coking coal remains stable, with the capacity utilization rate unchanged, while imports have increased slightly [5][80] - Coking coal prices have remained stable at ports, with the average price at 1,320 CNY/ton as of May 16, 2025 [47][80] - The inventory of coking coal production enterprises has increased by 23.22 million tons, indicating a slight oversupply [46][80] 3. Coke - The utilization rate of coking enterprises has increased to 76.02%, reflecting high production levels despite a slight decrease in iron output [6][59] - Coke prices have decreased slightly, with the price at 1,400 CNY/ton as of May 16, 2025 [59][60] - The overall profitability in the coke industry has improved, with an average profit of 7 CNY/ton, up by 6 CNY/ton from the previous week [62][66] 4. Anthracite Coal - The price of anthracite coal has remained stable, with the price at 850 CNY/ton as of May 16, 2025 [76][78] - The demand from non-electric sectors, particularly the chemical industry, continues to support the anthracite market [76][78] 5. Key Companies and Investment Logic - The report emphasizes the investment potential in coal companies with strong fundamentals, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yancoal [7][81] - The focus is on companies that exhibit characteristics of high profitability, cash flow, and dividend yields, which are attractive in the current market environment [7][81]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry [2][5]. Core Views - The coal demand is expected to rebound, with a potential for price stabilization as summer approaches and power plants increase their coal inventory [7][8]. - The report highlights the importance of strategic positioning in leading companies with strong fundamentals and low valuations, suggesting a focus on high-dividend stocks [7][8]. - The anticipated recovery in coal prices is supported by a decrease in coal imports and a gradual release of coal storage demand as temperatures rise [7][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The coal industry consists of 37 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 1,745.915 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 1,706.950 billion yuan [2]. 2. Price Tracking - As of May 16, 2025, the average daily production of thermal coal from 462 sample mines was 5.786 million tons, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.28% but a year-on-year increase of 4.97% [8]. - The price of thermal coal at the Qinhuangdao port was 619 yuan per ton, down 16 yuan from the previous week, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 28.44% [8]. 3. Inventory Tracking - The coal inventory at Qinhuangdao port was 7.6 million tons as of May 16, 2025, with a week-on-week increase of 0.93% and a year-on-year increase of 48.15% [7][8]. 4. Company Performance - Key companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yancoal are highlighted for their strong dividend policies and growth prospects, with expected dividends of 75%, 60%, and 57% respectively for 2023 [13]. - The report emphasizes the operational stability and growth potential of integrated coal and power companies, particularly those with ongoing projects and acquisitions [13][14]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies with strong earnings resilience and low valuations, such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal, as well as integrated coal-power companies like Xinji Energy and Huaihe Energy [7][8]. - It also suggests buying coking coal stocks due to expected improvements in downstream demand driven by fiscal policies and infrastructure investments [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The current coal price adjustment has been ongoing for nearly four years since the historical peak in Q4 2021, with prices generally returning to pre-increase levels. The market is well aware of the price decline, indicating that the bottom may be near. It is essential to understand the industry's fundamental attributes and maintain confidence and determination [3]. - As of April 2025, Australian coal exports totaled 104 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.1%. The decline in exports is attributed to the shutdown of Australian coking coal production, which has led to rising prices [2][6]. - Domestic coal companies are increasingly facing losses, with over half (54.8%) reporting losses as of March 2025. This trend may lead to both passive and active production cuts as prices continue to decline [3]. Summary by Sections Coal Mining Exports - In the first four months of 2025, Australian coal exports decreased by 8.1% year-on-year, totaling 104 million tons. In April alone, exports were 26.53 million tons, down 3.7% year-on-year and 12.3% month-on-month [2]. Price Trends - As of May 16, 2025, coal prices showed mixed trends: Newcastle coal (6000K) was priced at $99.0 per ton (up 0.1%), while European ARA coal was at $94.5 per ton (down 2.6%) [3][35]. The report indicates that the coal price adjustment is nearing its end, with potential for recovery as production cuts may occur due to high overseas mining costs [3]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends several coal companies, including China Shenhua (601088.SH), Shaanxi Coal (601225.SH), and China Qinfa (00866.HK), all rated as "Buy." Other recommended stocks include China Coal Energy (601898.SH) and Xinjie Energy (601918.SH) [7]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the coal industry is at a critical stage of price exploration, with the potential for a rebound as the market adjusts to production cuts and changing demand dynamics [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for key companies in the coal industry, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy [2][10]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that port inventory is decreasing, and the demand for coal in preparation for the summer peak is starting, suggesting that coal prices may rebound from their lows. Despite weak demand, the marginal improvement in demand could support prices [1][6]. - The report highlights that the coking coal market is under pressure due to strong supply and weak demand, with expectations of continued price weakness in the short term [2][8]. - The report emphasizes the investment value of stable high-dividend coal companies amid increasing uncertainty in international markets, suggesting that leading companies with strong cash flow and low debt are well-positioned for growth [7][10]. Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - The report notes that coal prices are expected to touch bottom and rebound due to seasonal demand and decreasing port inventories, despite ongoing weak demand [6]. Market Performance - As of May 16, the coal sector saw a weekly increase of 1.6%, outperforming the broader market indices [11][13]. Company Dynamics - The report recommends focusing on industry leaders with stable performance, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, as well as companies with strong cash flow growth like Jinkong Coal [2][10]. - It also mentions that companies like Shanxi Coal International and Huayang Co. are expected to see year-on-year production growth [2][10]. Price Trends - The report provides data on coal prices, indicating a decline in prices across various regions, with Qinhuangdao port's Q5500 thermal coal price reported at 618 RMB/ton, down 17 RMB/ton week-on-week [7][8].

证券代码：601225 证券简称：陕西煤业 公告编号：2025-022 陕西煤业股份有限公司 关于召开2024年年度股东大会的通知 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 召开的日期时间：2025 年 6 月 10 日 9 点 30 分 召开地点：陕西省西安市高新区锦业一路 2 号陕煤化大厦 2310 室 (五)网络投票的系统、起止日期和投票时间。 网络投票系统：上海证券交易所股东大会网络投票系统 二、 会议审议事项 本次股东大会审议议案及投票股东类型 投票股东类型 序号 议案名称 A 股股东 | 非累积投票议案 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 2024 关于陕西煤业股份有限公司 | 年度董事会工 | √ | | 作报告的议案 | | | | 关于陕西煤业股份有限公司 2024 | 年度监事会工 | √ | | 作报告的议案 | | | | 关于陕西煤业股份有限公司 2024 | 年度财务决算 | √ | | 报告的议案 | | | | 关于陕西煤业股份有限公司 2024 | 年 ...

证券代码：601225 证券简称：陕西煤业 公告编号：2025-022 陕西煤业股份有限公司 关于召开2024年年度股东大会的通知 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 一、 召开会议的基本情况 (一)股东大会类型和届次 2024年年度股东大会 (四)现场会议召开的日期、时间和地点 召开的日期时间：2025 年 6 月 10 日 9 点 30 分 召开地点：陕西省西安市高新区锦业一路 2 号陕煤化大厦 2310 室 股东大会召开日期：2025年6月10日 本次股东大会采用的网络投票系统：上海证券交易所股东大会网络投票 系统 (二)股东大会召集人：董事会 (三)投票方式：本次股东大会所采用的表决方式是现场投票和网络投票相结合的 方式 (五)网络投票的系统、起止日期和投票时间。 网络投票系统：上海证券交易所股东大会网络投票系统 网络投票起止时间：自2025 年 6 月 10 日 至2025 年 6 月 10 日 采用上海证券交易所网络投票系统，通过交易系统投票平台的投票时间为股 东大会召开当日的交易时间段 ...