[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|银行 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 跨境流动性跟踪 20251214 出口韧性累积蓄水池，联储鸽派降息助推资金回流 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [联系人： Table_Contacts] 李文洁 021-38003644 gfliwenjie@gf.com.cn 972918116公共联系人2025-12-14 21:42:46 1 / 24 [分析师： Table_Author]倪军 -10% -3% 4% 10% 17% 24% 12/24 02/25 05/25 07/25 09/25 12/25 银行 沪深300 | | SAC 执证号：S0260518020004 | | --- | --- | | | 021-38003646 | | | nijun@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 林虎 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260525040004 | | | SFC CE No. BWK411 | | | 021-38003643 | | | gflinhu@gf.com.cn | 请注意，倪军并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight (Maintain)" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the total social financing (社融) in November increased by 2.49 trillion yuan, which is 159.7 billion yuan more than the same period last year, exceeding the consensus expectation of 2.02 trillion yuan [5][8] - The cumulative social financing for the first eleven months shows a year-on-year growth of 8.5%, maintaining the same growth rate as in October [5][8] - The report highlights a structural differentiation in financing, with trust loans, bond financing, and unendorsed bank acceptance bills showing significant year-on-year increases, while credit and government bonds experienced declines [5][9] Summary by Sections Social Financing Situation - In November, social financing increased by 2.49 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 159.7 billion yuan, surpassing expectations [5][8] - The cumulative social financing for the first eleven months shows an 8.5% year-on-year increase, consistent with October's growth rate [5][8] Credit Situation - The report notes that the credit supply is lower than in previous years, with November's new RMB loans amounting to 405.3 billion yuan, which is 116.3 billion yuan less than the same month last year [5][12] - The credit balance grew by 6.4% year-on-year, with a slight decline in growth rate compared to the previous month [12] Liquidity and Deposit Situation - The report indicates that M1 growth has slowed, while M2 and M1's differential has slightly expanded [19] - In November, RMB deposits increased by 1.4 trillion yuan, which is 760 billion yuan less than the same period last year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.7% [21] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a shift in the investment logic for bank stocks from "pro-cyclical" to "weak-cyclical," indicating that during periods of economic stagnation, high dividend yields from bank stocks will remain attractive [24] - Two main investment lines are recommended: regional banks with strong certainty and large banks with high dividend yields [24]

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector is expected to present new investment opportunities as market styles shift, with a high probability of a resurgence in bank stocks in Q4 2025, particularly favoring quality regional banks and high-dividend large banks [1][2][5] Market Style Shift - The current market exhibits a "technology strong, weight weak" seesaw effect, with the technology sector showing significant volatility and growth, while the banking sector has lagged behind, indicating a potential for recovery [8][10] - The banking sector's price-to-book (PB) ratio remains at historical lows of 0.6-0.8, contrasting with the high valuations of the technology sector [1][8] Policy Environment - The banking sector benefits from favorable policies, including a significant reduction in deposit rates, which lowers banks' funding costs and supports their interest margins [2][24] - As of September 30, 2025, the dividend yield for bank stocks reached 4.40%, significantly higher than the 2.79% yield of the CSI 300 index, indicating a strong income advantage for investors [2][24] Funding Environment - There is a structural shift in funding flows, with increased allocation of risk-averse and long-term funds towards bank stocks, enhancing their funding advantages [2][26] - The asset quality of banks is steadily improving, with non-performing loan ratios decreasing from 1.59% to 1.49% between Q1 2024 and Q2 2025, and the provision coverage ratio increasing from 204.54% to 211.97% [2][29] Performance Analysis - The banking sector has shown strong performance from the end of 2024 to mid-2025, with the Shenwan Banking Index rising by 13.10% in the first half of 2025, outperforming the broader market [16][19] - Quality regional banks like Jiangsu Bank have demonstrated significant profit growth, with a 8.84% increase in net profit year-on-year in Q3 2025, highlighting their operational resilience [5][59] Investment Strategy - The fourth quarter is expected to see a "performance differentiation and valuation rebalancing" pattern, with banks positioned as core investment targets due to their low valuations, improving fundamentals, and attractive dividend yields [74] - Large state-owned banks such as ICBC and CCB are recommended for conservative investors due to their stable high dividends and strong financial positions [63][74] - Regional banks like Chengdu Bank and Suzhou Bank are also highlighted for their growth potential and solid asset quality, benefiting from regional economic advantages [70][74]

转自：新华财经 12月12日，工行四川省分行受邀参加成渝地区国家先进制造业集群"强链融圈"暨成渝地区产业合作园区高质量发展推进活动。活动中，该行作"工银惠群"服 务先进制造业集群的专题推介，并发布支持集群发展的创新服务措施及产品。 此外，工行四川省分行还参加了成渝地区电子信息先进制造业集群和成渝地区生物医药先进制造业集群的活动，并作服务方案宣讲和产品推介。 编辑：张震 图为工行四川省分行作重点产品推介 近年来，四川将先进制造业集群培育作为推动产业向中高端迈进、提升产业链供应链韧性、培育经济发展新动能的重要抓手。全省5大国家先进制造业集群 具有技术含量高、配套产业多、资本聚集密、发展前景好等特点，但也存在客群分布广、需求多样化的特征，对银行服务适配性提出更高要求。 经过持续稳健发展，中国工商银行已经建立了"贷+债+股+代+租+顾"的投融资体系，不仅可以做表内贷款，还可以联动海内外分支机构，以及工银理财、工 银金租、工银国际、工银投资、工银安盛等集团子公司为企业提供综合服务。工行四川省分行整合表内外融资资源，充分发挥综合化服务优势，不断帮助企 业提高资金使用效能，截至今年9月末，该行制造业贷款余额已超1200亿元 ...

Group 1 - Six major state-owned banks in China have initiated the distribution of mid-term dividends for 2025, with total dividends exceeding 200 billion yuan [1] - The dividend distribution dates for A-shares and H-shares have been announced, with specific dates set for each bank [1][2] - The dividend payout ratios for all six banks are maintained at 30% or above of their net profit attributable to shareholders [2] Group 2 - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) will distribute a cash dividend of 0.1414 yuan per share, totaling approximately 503.96 billion yuan [2] - Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) will distribute a cash dividend of 0.1195 yuan per share, totaling approximately 418.23 billion yuan [2] - Bank of China (BOC) will distribute a cash dividend of 0.1094 yuan per share, totaling approximately 352.50 billion yuan [2] - China Construction Bank (CCB) will distribute a cash dividend of 0.1858 yuan per share, totaling approximately 486.05 billion yuan [2] - Bank of Communications (BoCom) will distribute a cash dividend of 0.1563 yuan per share, totaling approximately 138.11 billion yuan [3] - Postal Savings Bank of China (PSBC) will distribute a cash dividend of 0.1230 yuan per share, totaling approximately 147.72 billion yuan [3] Group 3 - The encouragement from financial regulatory authorities has led to an increase in mid-term dividends among listed banks, reflecting a policy direction aimed at enhancing cash dividends [3] - Experts believe that mid-term dividends can boost investor confidence in bank stocks and foster long-term value investment concepts [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that as of December 13, 26 A-share listed banks have disclosed their mid-term or quarterly dividend plans for 2025, surpassing the 24 banks that did so in the same period of 2024, with total dividends expected to exceed 260 billion yuan [1][3] - The banks disclosing dividend plans include 6 large state-owned banks, 6 joint-stock banks, and 14 small and medium-sized banks, with the six major state-owned banks expected to contribute over 200 billion yuan in cash dividends [3] - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China leads with an estimated dividend of approximately 50.4 billion yuan, followed by China Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, Postal Savings Bank of China, and Bank of Communications [3] Group 2 - Joint-stock banks such as Industrial Bank and CITIC Bank are expected to have mid-term dividends exceeding 10 billion yuan, while China Everbright Bank and Minsheng Bank are projected to exceed 5 billion yuan [3] - Some small and medium-sized banks, like Shanghai Bank and Nanjing Bank, also show significant dividend amounts, with several banks like Industrial Bank and Ningbo Bank introducing mid-term dividend plans for the first time [3] - The increase in dividend frequency among commercial banks is a response to the new "National Nine Articles" aimed at promoting multiple dividends per year for listed companies, enhancing the connection between company profits and investor returns [3] Group 3 - More frequent dividends can directly enhance shareholder satisfaction, allowing investors to share in the banks' operational success in a timely manner [4] - Stable cash returns align well with the investment needs of long-term funds such as social security funds, pension funds, and insurance capital, helping to attract these funds for long-term holding [4] - The positioning of banks as dividend-oriented can create a virtuous cycle of attracting long-term capital, enhancing stock price stability, and reducing abnormal price fluctuations caused by short-term speculation [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the banking sector in 2026, indicating a return to fundamental narratives supported by policy financial tools and asset expansion resilience [6][23]. Core Viewpoints - The banking sector is expected to stabilize net interest margins due to a concentrated repricing cycle of deposits, with structural risks anticipated to receive policy support [3][23]. - The report highlights two main investment themes: focusing on quality small and medium-sized banks and state-owned banks with defensive value [24]. Summary by Sections Financial Data Analysis - In November 2025, social financing (社融) grew by 8.5% year-on-year, with a monthly increment of 2.49 trillion yuan, exceeding market expectations [10][9]. - The structure of social financing showed a decrease in RMB loans by 116.3 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating weak demand for credit [10][9]. - Government bonds decreased by 104.8 billion yuan year-on-year, while corporate direct financing increased by 170.2 billion yuan, with bond financing up by 178.8 billion yuan [10][9]. Loan Trends - Total RMB loans grew by 6.4% year-on-year in November, with a total of 390 billion yuan in new loans, reflecting a decline in both household and corporate loans [13][14]. - Household loans saw a significant drop, with short-term loans down by 178.8 billion yuan and medium to long-term loans down by 290 billion yuan [13][14]. - Corporate loans increased by 281.9 billion yuan, primarily driven by bill discounting [14][13]. Monetary Supply - M1 growth fell to 4.9% year-on-year, while M2 grew by 8.0%, with the gap between M2 and M1 increasing to 3.1% [20][21]. - New RMB deposits totaled 1.41 trillion yuan in November, a decrease of 760 billion yuan year-on-year, with declines across all categories including household and non-bank deposits [20][22]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on quality small and medium-sized banks such as Nanjing Bank, Hangzhou Bank, and Ningbo Bank, while also considering state-owned banks like Bank of Communications and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China for their defensive value [24][23].

浙江大学金融研究所所长王维安在主题演讲中就中国宏观经济金融形势与政策展开深度分析，解读中国 经济基本面、政策导向及核心挑战。他表示，2026年，中国将实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货 币政策，以科技创新引领新质生产力发展，推进产业结构升级与数字化转型。 中国工商银行金边分行总经理林士强分享柬埔寨经济金融态势及相关热点问题，为中企出海与跨境合作 提供参考。他表示，柬国经济持续温和增长，人口红利显著，投资活跃度创新高，跨境人民币应用成效 显著。该分行将不断优化产品，为助力中柬共建"一带一路"、推动两国经贸合作贡献金融力量。(完) 钟洁在致辞中指出，中柬经贸合作面临广阔发展前景，双方在数字经济、绿色经济、农产品深加工等领 域加强投资对接，进一步深化金融等新兴领域合作，持续为中柬经贸合作注入新动能。坚信在中柬双方 的携手努力下，双边经贸合作一定能够穿越任何周期，显示出更强的韧性与活力。 中新网金边12月13日电 (杨强 强宝仪)中国驻柬埔寨大使馆公使衔参赞钟洁13日在金边表示，当前全球 经济增长动能不足，各国经济发展和国际经贸合作面临诸多挑战，中柬两国持续推进"一带一路"建 设，"钻石六边"合作框架更加充实，给两 ...

中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。会议提出，明年经济工作在政策取向上，要坚持"稳中 求进、提质增效"，并用"八个坚持"划出了明年经济工作的重点任务。 会后，多家金融机构集体表态对标对表明年经济工作"八个坚持"重点任务，并结合自身实际谋划好2026 年和"十五五"期间工作。 《每日经济新闻》记者注意到，多家金融机构强调，要突出主责主业，持续优化重点领域金融供给，包 括支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业、民生保障等方面。此外，多家机构表态坚持守牢底线，积极 稳妥化解重点领域风险。 聚焦主责主业，推动金融资源向重点领域和薄弱环节集聚 多家机构表态，要聚焦主责主业，做好金融"五篇大文章"，推动金融资源向经济社会发展的重大战略、 重点领域和薄弱环节集聚，提升服务实体经济质效。记者注意到，多家机构在科技创新领域重点着墨。 工商银行表示，要发挥主力军作用，持续发力促进高质量发展。围绕服务"四稳"，突出主责主业，提供 全面金融解决方案。积极融入强大国内市场，加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域， 精准服务"两重一薄"、制造业、区域协调、"双碳"引领、民生保障等，努力为人民群众多办实事。 农业银行提及 ...

记者丨张欣 编辑丨曾芳 12月12日，全国金融系统工作会议在京召开，中共中央政治局委员、中央金融委员会办公室主 任何立峰出席会议并讲话，为2026年金融系统工作划定核心方向。 同日，工行、建行、农行、中行等国有大行召开党委会议，传达学习中央经济工作会议精神， 结合全国金融系统工作会议要求，研究部署贯彻落实措施，明确2026年及 "十五五" 时期工作 重点，为助力经济高质量发展、服务金融强国建设提供金融支撑。 四家国有大行在贯彻落实会议精神过程中形成明确共识，均紧扣"防风险、强监管、促高质量 发展"工作主线，锚定三大核心方向推进2026年工作： 一是坚持党中央对金融工作的集中统一领导。 工行、农行、建行、中行均强调要深刻领悟 "两个确立" 的决定性意义，坚决做到"两个维 护"。其中，工行和农行还强调要增强 "四个意识"、坚定 "四个自信"。 工行和中行提出要牢固树立和践行正确政绩观、业绩观，持之以恒推进全面从严治党，抓好中 央巡视整改常态化长效化。农行、建行也明确要加强党的建设，树立正确业绩观，确保中央决 策部署落地见效。 二是聚焦主责主业，做深做实金融"五篇大文章"。 四家银行均提出要全面做好金融 "五篇大文 ...