Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview: Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals sector is benefiting from the global macro cycle, with U.S. interest rate cuts and Trump-era policies releasing liquidity, driving resource prices into an upward cycle [1][2] - The anticipated interest rate cuts in Q4 2025 and the increase in the U.S. debt ceiling are expected to have significant impacts on the sector [1][2] Key Insights on Gold Stocks - Gold stocks have shown high certainty in the current market, experiencing a 20% pullback despite gold price fluctuations [4] - Historical data indicates that prior to price increases, gold stocks typically see a rise in both EPS and PE [4] - The average gold price in 2025 is projected to be significantly higher than in 2024, suggesting strong performance for companies like Shandong Gold, Chifeng Jilong Gold, and Zhongjin Gold [4] Electrolytic Aluminum Sector - The supply of electrolytic aluminum is constrained, with actual new capacity in early 2025 expected to be around 500,000 to 600,000 tons, lower than the anticipated 1 million tons [5] - Global PMI recovery is expected to gradually restore demand for electrolytic aluminum, with price expectations increasing [5] - The sector's valuation is at historical lows, with mainstream stocks valued at less than 10 times earnings, indicating significant room for recovery [6] Copper Sector Outlook - The copper sector presents investment opportunities driven by financial and industrial attributes, with expectations of price increases due to U.S. interest rate cuts and improved demand from China [7][8] - Supply disruptions from global mining events are contributing to a tightening supply situation, while demand is expected to grow due to macroeconomic factors [7][8] Tungsten Market Dynamics - The rise in tungsten prices is driven by supply contraction, export controls, and its strategic importance [3][9] - China's tungsten product exports have significantly decreased, leading to shortages in overseas markets [10] - The impact of export quotas on prices is critical, with expectations of a potential price increase if the second batch of quotas is reduced [12] Companies to Watch - Recommended companies include Shandong Gold, Chifeng Jilong Gold, Zhongjin Gold, Xiamen Tungsten, China Tungsten High-Tech, and Anyuan Coal Industry, which are seen as having investment potential in the current market environment [4][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The demand for aluminum continues to rise during the peak season, with signs of a turning point in aluminum ingot inventory [1] - The macroeconomic environment is favorable, with expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which may further support aluminum prices [6][11] - The aluminum processing sector is experiencing a recovery in operating rates, indicating a potential increase in demand [11] Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of September 12, 2025, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was $2701.0 per ton, up $98.5 from the previous week, a 3.8% increase [23] - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price was 21120.0 CNY per ton, up 425.0 CNY from the previous week, a 2.1% increase [23] - The average price of A00 aluminum in Changjiang was 21050.0 CNY per ton, up 370.0 CNY from the previous week, a 1.8% increase [23] 2. Production - In August 2025, the production of electrolytic aluminum was 373.3 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.1 million tons, and a year-on-year increase of 5.0 million tons [56] - The production of alumina in August 2025 was 773.8 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 8.8 million tons, and a year-on-year increase of 56.5 million tons [56] 3. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - China Hongqiao (1378.HK) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 2.35 CNY for 2024, increasing to 2.89 CNY by 2026 [5] - Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 0.96 CNY for 2024, increasing to 1.27 CNY by 2026 [5] - Shenhuo Co. (000933.SZ) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 1.91 CNY for 2024, increasing to 2.56 CNY by 2026 [5] - China Aluminum (601600.SH) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 0.72 CNY for 2024, increasing to 0.99 CNY by 2026 [5] - Yunnan Aluminum (000807.SZ) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 1.27 CNY for 2024, increasing to 2.07 CNY by 2026 [5] 4. Inventory - As of September 11, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory was recorded at 625,000 tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 1,000 tons [7] - The aluminum rod inventory in major domestic consumption areas was 132,500 tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 750 tons [7] 5. Demand - The arrival of the traditional peak season has led to improved order conditions for most profile enterprises, with various downstream sectors showing varying degrees of recovery [7] - The operating rate of aluminum processing leading enterprises increased by 0.4 percentage points to 62.1% [7]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.12% on September 12, with 9 out of the 28 sectors rising, led by the non-ferrous metals and real estate sectors, which increased by 1.96% and 1.51% respectively [2] - The non-ferrous metals sector topped the gainers list for the day [2] - A total of 536.40 billion yuan in net outflow of funds was observed across the two markets, with 6 sectors experiencing net inflows [2] Fund Flow Analysis - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a net inflow of 21.68 billion yuan, contributing to its 1.96% increase [3] - The construction and decoration sector followed with a 0.96% increase and a net inflow of 7.21 billion yuan [2] - In contrast, 25 sectors experienced net outflows, with the non-bank financial sector leading at 81.38 billion yuan, followed by the electronics sector with 75.17 billion yuan [2] Non-Ferrous Metals Sector Performance - Within the non-ferrous metals sector, 137 stocks were tracked, with 104 stocks rising and 33 stocks declining [3] - The top three stocks with the highest net inflow were Northern Copper Industry (5.90 billion yuan), Hunan Silver (5.59 billion yuan), and Northern Rare Earth (4.34 billion yuan) [3] - Conversely, the stocks with the highest net outflow included Zijin Mining (11.76 billion yuan), China Aluminum (3.00 billion yuan), and Huayou Cobalt (2.02 billion yuan) [3][5] Top Gainers in Non-Ferrous Metals - Northern Copper Industry: 10.01, 5.77% increase, 58980.51 million yuan net inflow [4] - Hunan Silver: 9.98, 14.11% increase, 55922.64 million yuan net inflow [4] - Northern Rare Earth: 5.99, 9.40% increase, 43377.69 million yuan net inflow [4] Top Losers in Non-Ferrous Metals - Zijin Mining: -0.23% change, -117614.21 million yuan net outflow [5] - China Aluminum: 2.68% increase, -29952.36 million yuan net outflow [5] - Huayou Cobalt: 1.26% increase, -20224.97 million yuan net outflow [5]

Group 1 - China Aluminum (02600.HK) experienced a significant increase in stock price, rising over 5% and reaching a peak increase of 7.18% to 7.61 HKD per share [2] - The trading volume for China Aluminum was reported at 893 million HKD [2]

Core Viewpoint - China Aluminum (601600) shares rose over 5%, reaching a peak increase of 7.18% at HKD 7.61, with a trading volume of HKD 893 million [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Goldman Sachs reported that China Aluminum's net profit for the first half of the year was RMB 7.1 billion, or earnings per share of RMB 0.412, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1% [1] - Goldman Sachs raised its profit forecast for China Aluminum for 2025-2026 by 11% to 15%, expecting regular net profits to remain strong at RMB 13.3 billion in 2025 and RMB 14 billion in 2026, supported by projected aluminum price spreads of RMB 4,820 per ton in 2025 and RMB 4,700 per ton in 2026 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [1] - Goldman Sachs maintained a "Buy" rating on China Aluminum's H-shares, increasing the target price from HKD 6.3 to HKD 7.6 [1] - UBS also assigned a "Buy" rating to China Aluminum, raising the target price from HKD 6.2 to HKD 7.9 [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - The Ministry of Commerce recently released the "2024 Annual Statistical Bulletin on China's Foreign Direct Investment," indicating that the mining sector remains highly active in foreign direct investment, ranking among the top five concentrated areas for such investments [1] - The bulletin's data shows that China's mining sector continues to attract strong investment interest and confidence from enterprises [1]

Group 1 - China Aluminum (02600) saw a stock price increase of over 5%, reaching a rise of 7.18% to HKD 7.61, with a trading volume of HKD 893 million [1] - Goldman Sachs reported that China Aluminum's net profit for the first half of the year was RMB 7.1 billion, or earnings per share of RMB 0.412, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1% [1] - Goldman Sachs raised its profit forecast for China Aluminum for 2025-2026 by 11% to 15%, predicting recurring net profits of RMB 13.3 billion in 2025 and RMB 14 billion in 2026, supported by aluminum price differentials of RMB 4,820 per ton in 2025 and RMB 4,700 per ton in 2026 [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs maintained a "Buy" rating on China Aluminum's H-shares, increasing the target price from HKD 6.3 to HKD 7.6 [1] - UBS also assigned a "Buy" rating to China Aluminum, raising the target price from HKD 6.2 to HKD 7.9 [1] - The Ministry of Commerce's 2024 report indicated that China's mining sector remains highly active in foreign direct investment, being one of the five key areas for such investments, with strong investment willingness and confidence among enterprises [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the positive impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut on the prices of precious and industrial metals, leading to a significant rise in the non-ferrous metal index by 2.93% [3] - The non-ferrous metal ETF fund (516650) saw an increase of 3.06%, with major holdings like Yunnan Copper and Northern Copper reaching their daily limit up, indicating strong market performance [3] - The non-ferrous metal ETF fund has experienced continuous net inflows over the past 15 days, totaling 346 million yuan, with its latest share count reaching 389 million and total assets hitting 575 million yuan, both marking new highs in the past year [3] Group 2 - According to Minsheng Securities, the expectation of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, combined with seasonal demand improvements in September and October, provides strong upward momentum for industrial metal prices [3] - Concerns have arisen regarding a month-on-month decline in electrolytic copper production in September, which is expected to impact October's supply, while the demand fundamentals remain robust due to the consumption peak in September [3] - In the aluminum sector, supply-side adjustments and a resurgence of holding merchants' price support sentiment, along with downstream replenishment activities, indicate sustained demand [3] Group 3 - The non-ferrous metal ETF fund closely tracks the CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Industry Theme Index, with the top ten weighted stocks as of August 29, 2025, including Zijin Mining, Northern Rare Earth, and Luoyang Molybdenum, collectively accounting for 51.86% of the index [4] - The top ten stocks by weight in the non-ferrous metal ETF fund include Zijin Mining (15.80%), Northern Rare Earth (4.98%), and Luoyang Molybdenum (4.68%), among others, reflecting a diverse portfolio [6]

Group 1 - Non-ferrous stocks continue their recent upward trend, with China Aluminum (601600) rising by 5.77% to HKD 7.51, China Hongqiao (01378) up by 4.78% to HKD 26.28, Jiangxi Copper (600362) increasing by 3.97% to HKD 26.18, and Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) gaining 3.39% to HKD 13.12 [1] - The U.S. August CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year, while the core CPI rose by 3.1%, aligning with expectations and strengthening market bets on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [1] - Citic Securities predicts that the U.S. overall CPI growth rate may hover around 3% in the coming months, maintaining the forecast of three consecutive 25 basis point rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [1] Group 2 - Galaxy Securities reports that expectations for a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve are rising, which could lead to marginal liquidity easing and pressure on the U.S. dollar index, benefiting industrial metal prices [1] - In terms of fundamentals, China's manufacturing PMI slightly improved by 0.1 percentage points to 49.49% in August, indicating marginal recovery in economic activity [1] - As the traditional peak and off-peak seasons transition, downstream processing enterprises are seeing a recovery in operating rates, while the supply side faces challenges from concentrated maintenance at smelting plants and policy adjustments, potentially leading to a decrease in production and accelerated destocking of industrial metal inventories [1]

Core Viewpoint - The successful full-capacity grid connection of the 1.2 million kilowatt renewable energy project by Baotou Aluminum Industry marks a significant step for China Aluminum Group in its green and low-carbon transformation journey [1][2]. Group 1: Project Overview - The project involves a comprehensive "source-network-load-storage integration" system, which includes self-supplied thermal power, off-site renewable energy, direct supply of green electricity to the park, distributed photovoltaics, the grid, energy storage, and electrolytic aluminum load [1]. - The total investment in the project exceeds 5 billion yuan, comprising 1 million kilowatts of wind power and 200,000 kilowatts of solar power, along with smart energy control systems and related storage facilities [1]. Group 2: Environmental Impact - The project is expected to generate an average annual electricity output of approximately 3.5 billion kilowatt-hours, saving 1.249 million tons of standard coal and reducing carbon dioxide emissions by about 3 million tons each year [2]. - By adopting a "self-generated and self-used" model, the project provides stable and clean green electricity to Baotou Aluminum, significantly lowering electricity costs and enhancing the company's market competitiveness [2]. Group 3: Future Plans - China Aluminum Group plans to leverage the full-capacity grid connection of the renewable energy project as an opportunity to advance its green initiatives, focusing on low-carbon, low-cost operations, and digital transformation [2]. - The company aims to continuously optimize its industrial layout and structure, promoting the deep integration of green energy with the smelting industry [2].

Group 1 - The industrial metal sector increased by 2.21% on September 11, with Huayu Mining leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3875.31, up 1.65%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12979.89, up 3.36% [1] - Huayu Mining's closing price was 26.99, reflecting a rise of 6.26%, with a trading volume of 579,800 shares and a transaction value of 1.516 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The industrial metal sector saw a net inflow of 765 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 193 million yuan [2] - The top gainers in the industrial metal sector included Pengxin Resources, Tianshan Aluminum, and Haomei New Materials, with respective increases of 6.02%, 5.28%, and 4.73% [1][2] - The main funds' net inflow for China Aluminum was 138 million yuan, while retail investors had a net outflow of 892,480 yuan [3]