Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony industries [14][15]. Core Views - The report indicates that the gold market will continue to rise due to the Federal Reserve's ongoing interest rate cuts [14]. - Short-term demand for copper and aluminum may weaken, but the long-term supply-demand balance is expected to tighten [15]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate due to a tight supply situation, while antimony prices are projected to remain weak in the short term but supported by long-term supply constraints [15]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector (Shenwan) saw a weekly increase of 3.75%, outperforming other sectors [23]. - The top-performing sub-sectors included rare earths (+18.65%), magnetic materials (+11.28%), and silver (+8.35%) [23]. 2. Precious Metals - London gold price was $3352.10 per ounce, up $20.20 from July 4, with a 0.61% increase [34]. - London silver price reached $37.5 per ounce, increasing by 0.62% from July 4 [34]. - The report notes that the Federal Reserve's differing views on inflation may impact precious metals, but a bullish trend is anticipated [6][34]. 3. Copper and Aluminum - LME copper closed at $9640 per ton, down $240 from July 4, a decrease of 2.43% [41]. - Domestic aluminum price was 20760 RMB per ton, with a slight increase of 0.05% [42]. - The report highlights that short-term copper and aluminum prices may face downward pressure due to weak demand [15][41]. 4. Tin and Antimony - Domestic refined tin price was 266820 RMB per ton, down 0.37% from July 4 [43]. - Antimony price was 185500 RMB per ton, reflecting a decrease of 1.80% [15][43]. - The report suggests that while demand is weak, supply constraints may support tin prices in the future [15]. 5. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends specific stocks in the gold sector, including Zhongjin Gold and Shandong Gold, and in the copper sector, including Zijin Mining and Western Mining [15][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The macroeconomic environment remains favorable domestically, with China's economic growth projected to exceed 35 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan, and the total economic output expected to reach around 140 trillion yuan this year [6] - The aluminum industry is experiencing a seasonal decline in demand, leading to a potential accumulation of inventory in July, although low inventory levels and reduced aluminum supply may provide some support for aluminum prices [11] - The report highlights the impact of overseas tariff disturbances, particularly from the U.S., which may affect the aluminum market dynamics [6] Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of July 11, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was $2,602.0 per ton, up $4.5 from the previous week, reflecting a 0.2% increase week-on-week and a 124.0 increase year-on-year [15] - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price was 20,695.0 yuan per ton, up 60.0 yuan from the previous week, marking a 0.3% increase week-on-week and a 595.0 increase year-on-year [22] 2. Production - In June 2025, the production of electrolytic aluminum was 3.609 million tons, a decrease of 120,000 tons month-on-month and a decrease of 28,000 tons year-on-year [48] - The production of alumina in June 2025 was 7.258 million tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons month-on-month, but an increase of 269,000 tons year-on-year [48] 3. Inventory - As of July 10, domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 466,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons from the previous week, indicating a shift from accumulation to destocking [7] 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - Key companies in the aluminum sector include China Hongqiao, Tianshan Aluminum, Shenhuo Co., China Aluminum, and Yun Aluminum, all rated as "Buy" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth for 2025 [5] 5. Demand - The downstream sectors are experiencing a pronounced off-season atmosphere, with aluminum processing rates remaining low, and the demand for aluminum rods is under pressure due to high temperatures and seasonal factors [7]

Core Insights - The rare earth industry is experiencing a significant price increase for related transactions, with two leading companies announcing a price hike for Q3 2025, leading to a bullish market sentiment and increased trading activity in the rare earth sector [1] - The rare earth ETF (516780) saw a record daily trading volume of 207 million yuan on July 10, 2025, indicating strong investor interest [1] - A recent report from Guotou Securities highlights the rigid supply of rare earths and increasing demand, particularly from sectors like electric vehicles and wind power, which is expected to drive prices higher [1][2] Industry Performance - The price of rare earth concentrates has been on a rising trend for four consecutive quarters since Q4 2024, reflecting improved industry conditions [1] - The report notes that the export restrictions on certain rare earth elements have caused significant price surges in Europe, with price differentials exceeding three times between domestic and international markets [1] - The rare earth ETF tracks the performance of companies involved in mining, processing, trading, and application of rare earths, with top constituents including Northern Rare Earth, China Rare Earth, and China Aluminum [1] Market Outlook - The rare earth sector is poised for multiple catalysts due to the recovery in industry conditions and potential supply chain optimizations [2] - Investors are encouraged to consider the rare earth ETF (516780) and its associated funds as a way to capitalize on the opportunities presented by this strategic resource [2]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3546.50 points, above the annual line, with a gain of 1.05% [1] - The total trading volume of A-shares reached 10310.63 billion yuan [1] Stocks Breaking Annual Line - A total of 55 A-shares have broken above the annual line today, with notable stocks including XWANDA, Fuxing Co., and Guolian Minsheng, showing divergence rates of 5.64%, 3.70%, and 3.15% respectively [1] - Stocks with smaller divergence rates that just crossed the annual line include Wangfujing, Tonghe Pharmaceutical, and Sanxia Water Conservancy [1] Top Stocks by Divergence Rate - The top three stocks with the highest divergence rates are: - XWANDA (9.13% increase, 5.12% turnover rate, latest price 21.16 yuan, divergence rate 5.64%) [1] - Fuxing Co. (4.31% increase, 5.52% turnover rate, latest price 2.42 yuan, divergence rate 3.70%) [1] - Guolian Minsheng (6.66% increase, 3.68% turnover rate, latest price 11.21 yuan, divergence rate 3.15%) [1] Additional Stocks with Notable Performance - Other stocks with significant performance include: - Tuoer Si (3.05% increase, 3.72% turnover rate, latest price 18.56 yuan, divergence rate 2.82%) [1] - ST Huaming (4.83% increase, 10.28% turnover rate, latest price 10.21 yuan, divergence rate 2.73%) [1] - Green Beauty (3.01% increase, 2.26% turnover rate, latest price 6.50 yuan, divergence rate 2.32%) [1]

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Index for the subdivided non-ferrous metal industry has shown significant growth, with a 3.10% increase over the past month and a 13.89% increase year-to-date, indicating a strong performance in this sector [1][2]. Group 1: Index Performance - The China Securities Index for subdivided non-ferrous metals rose by 1.28% to 6711.19 points, with a trading volume of 39.135 billion yuan [1]. - The index has increased by 13.83% over the past three months [1]. - The index is composed of seven sub-indices, reflecting the overall performance of larger, more liquid listed companies in related industries [1]. Group 2: Index Composition - The top ten holdings in the index include Zijin Mining (15.24%), Northern Rare Earth (5.39%), and Luoyang Molybdenum (4.48%) [1]. - The index's holdings are primarily concentrated in the Shanghai Stock Exchange (64.67%) and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (35.33%) [1]. Group 3: Industry Breakdown - The index's sample holdings are predominantly in the raw materials sector (99.39%), with a small representation in the industrial sector (0.61%) [2]. - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with changes implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December [2]. Group 4: Related Funds - Public funds tracking the subdivided non-ferrous metal index include several products from Huaxia and Huitianfu, indicating investor interest in this sector [2].

Core Viewpoint - The significant increase in Northern Rare Earth's semi-annual performance by 1882.54% to 2014.71% has stimulated a strong rally in the entire rare earth permanent magnet sector, leading to active trading in related ETFs [1] ETF Market Summary - Four rare earth-related ETFs saw a half-day increase of over 3%, with the rare earth ETF (516780) and the rare earth ETF by Harvest (516150) both exceeding a transaction amount of 100 million yuan [1] - The rare earth ETF (159713) recorded a 3.57% increase, with a scale of 4.42 million shares and a half-day transaction amount of 56.03 million yuan [3] - The rare earth ETF by Harvest (516150) has a larger scale of 20.88 million shares and a half-day increase of 3.4%, with a transaction amount of 172 million yuan [3] ETF Scale Changes - The rare earth ETF by Harvest (516150) and the rare earth ETF (516780) have seen significant increases in shares this year, with the former increasing by 495 million shares, resulting in a year-to-date change rate of 31.07% [2] Investment Logic - The marginal improvement in supply and demand for upstream rare earth resource companies is driven by strengthened expectations of supply contraction and increased demand from relaxed export controls, suggesting potential benefits from rising rare earth prices [2] - In the medium to long term, as rare earth prices steadily recover, the profitability of downstream magnetic material companies is expected to continue to improve [2] Key Weight Stocks in the Index - The major weight stocks in the China Securities Rare Earth Industry Index include Northern Rare Earth (13.25%), China Rare Earth (5.54%), and Lingyi Technology (5.11%), among others, indicating a high concentration of companies deeply involved in the rare earth supply chain [4]

Group 1: Liquidity and Performance of Rare Earth ETF - The liquidity of the Rare Earth ETF managed by Jiashi has a turnover rate of 6.85%, with a half-day trading volume of 172 million yuan [3] - Over the past week, the average daily trading volume of the Rare Earth ETF reached 182 million yuan, ranking first among comparable funds [3] - The fund's scale increased by 43.99 million yuan in the past two weeks, also ranking first among comparable funds [3] - The fund's shares increased by 21.7 million units in the past month, achieving significant growth and ranking first among comparable funds [3] - The latest net inflow of funds into the Rare Earth ETF is 35.42 million yuan, with a total of 64.51 million yuan net inflow over the last five trading days [3] - As of July 9, the net value of the Rare Earth ETF has risen by 39.87% over the past year, ranking 503 out of 2907 index equity funds, placing it in the top 17.30% [3] - The fund has recorded a maximum monthly return of 41.25% since its inception, with the longest consecutive monthly increase being four months and the longest increase percentage being 83.89% [3] Group 2: Industry Outlook and Company Performance - Northern Rare Earth announced a semi-annual performance forecast, expecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of 900 million to 960 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 1882.54% to 2014.71% [4] - The Ministry of Commerce of China emphasized the importance of maintaining global supply chain stability and has approved a certain number of compliant applications for rare earth exports, indicating a recovery in export demand [4] - Emerging fields such as humanoid robots are expected to open up growth opportunities for the rare earth industry, with a positive outlook for the industry's recovery in the short to medium term [4] - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Rare Earth Industry Index include Northern Rare Earth, China Rare Earth, and China Aluminum, collectively accounting for 55.58% of the index [4]

晨会纪要（2025/07/09） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 晨会纪要（2025/07/09） 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.07.09） 固定收益研究 收益率下行，评级利差普遍处于历史低位——信用债周报 行业研究 中央财经委会议释放"反内卷"新信号——金属行业 7 月投资策略展望 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 5 城投债方面，稳增长和防系统性风险的背景下，城投违约的可能性很低，城投债仍可作为信用债重点配置 品种。城投债大势将由化债与发展的合力决定，短期信用风险无虞，现阶段城投债策略依然可以积极。; 2、风险提示 固定收益研究 收益率下行，评级利差普遍处于历史低位——信用债周报 李济安（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150522060001） 王哲语（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150524070001） 1、核心观点 本期（6 月 30 日至 7 月 6 日）交易商协会公布的发行指导利率多数下行，整体变化幅度为-14 BP ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the performance of the CSI 800 Materials Theme Index, which has shown significant growth over various time frames, indicating a positive trend in the materials sector [1][2] - The CSI 800 Materials Theme Index reported a value of 2899.41 points, with a 3.48% increase over the past month, a 12.06% increase over the past three months, and an 8.07% increase year-to-date [1] - The index is composed of listed companies in the materials sector selected from the CSI 800 Index, reflecting the overall performance of these companies [1] Group 2 - The top ten weighted companies in the CSI 800 Materials Theme Index include Zijin Mining (12.74%), Wanhua Chemical (4.0%), and Yilong Co. (2.48%), among others [1] - The market share of the index's holdings is predominantly from the Shanghai Stock Exchange (65.19%) and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (34.81%) [1] - In terms of industry composition, non-ferrous metals account for 50.67%, chemicals for 32.62%, steel for 8.63%, non-metallic materials for 6.87%, and paper and packaging for 1.22% [2] Group 3 - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [2] - Weight factors are generally fixed until the next scheduled adjustment, with special circumstances allowing for temporary adjustments [2] - Companies that are delisted or undergo mergers, acquisitions, or splits are handled according to specific calculation and maintenance guidelines [2]

Industry Performance in 2024 - In 2024, 34 listed mining and metal companies achieved sales revenue of 284.47 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, while net profit was 31.92 billion RMB, a decrease of 2.3% [1] - Different mineral products showed varied performance: gold, aluminum, and copper saw increases in revenue and profit, while coal, lithium, and rare earth products experienced declines, with lithium sales revenue dropping by 57.9% and net profit decreasing by 109.9% [1] Assets and Financials - Total assets reached 3,792.44 billion RMB, a year-on-year growth of 5.9%, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 43.5%, indicating stability [2] - Operating cash flow increased by 4.49%, but accounts receivable turnover days rose, with lithium product companies having the longest turnover days at 73 days [2] Resources and Production - Domestic mineral reserves are steadily increasing, with accelerated overseas expansion. Coal, bauxite, and gold reserves grew, while lithium and rare earth production increased. Overseas investments are concentrated in copper, lithium, and gold, with Congo, Argentina, and Ghana becoming popular destinations [3] Capital Market and International Benchmarking - Market capitalization increased for all mineral companies except lithium product companies, with coal companies having the highest market value at 1,415.5 billion RMB. The highest dividend yield was for coal companies at 4.72%, while lithium companies had the lowest at 0.24% [4] - Compared to the top six global mining companies, Chinese listed mining and metal companies lag in ROA, working capital turnover days, and revenue cash ratio, but have a lower effective tax rate. Future tax burdens may rise with the implementation of the "Pillar Two" global minimum tax rules [4] Global Mergers and Tax Challenges - From 2021 to Q1 2025, Chinese enterprises engaged in overseas mining transactions totaling 15.43 billion USD, with gold transactions leading. Mergers and acquisitions were primarily focused in Canada, Australia, and Argentina, with active trading in gold, copper, and lithium [5] - The domestic green tax system is improving, with resource taxes primarily based on value. The EU carbon border adjustment mechanism significantly impacts steel and aluminum exporters, while U.S. tariff policies increase export costs [6] ESG and Future Outlook - Domestic and international ESG policies are tightening, with dual importance analysis becoming a key disclosure focus. Companies like Zijin Mining and Nanshan Aluminum have established ESG governance systems, but domestic companies still lag behind international peers in ESG ratings [7] - The industry faces challenges related to ESG, capital, and operational permits, while opportunities exist in digitalization, green transformation, and new business models. Companies need to enhance technological innovation, optimize resource allocation, and improve global competitiveness [8] Summary - In 2024, Chinese listed mining and metal companies demonstrated resilience in a complex environment, with revenue growth and stable asset structures, but significant profit differentiation. The industry must address global tax reforms and heightened ESG requirements while seizing opportunities in green transformation and digitalization for high-quality development [9]