Investment Rating - The investment rating for Aluminum Corporation of China (Chalco) is "Buy" with a target price of Rmb9.62 per share based on a 2.22x 2025E P/B [18] - The investment rating for Baoshan Iron & Steel is "Buy" with a target price of Rmb8.2 per share based on a 0.85x 2025E P/B [22] - The investment rating for Tianqi Lithium is "Hold" with a target price of HK$23.0 for H-shares and Rmb26.26 for A-shares [24][27] Core Insights - The report indicates cautious market expectations regarding demand recovery in the aluminum sector in China, with a near-term pecking order of steel > aluminum > lithium > copper > gold > battery > thermal coal > cement [1] - Total aluminum production in China for the week of June 12-18, 2025, was 845kt, flat week-over-week (WoW), and up 3% year-over-year (YoY) [2] - Total aluminum inventory in China stood at 722kt on June 19, 2025, reflecting a 1% increase WoW but a significant 38% decrease YoY [3] - Apparent aluminum consumption in China was 849kt during the same week, down 6% WoW but up 5.8% YoY for the year-to-date [4] Production Summary - China's total aluminum production year-to-date reached 20.9 million tonnes (mnt), representing a 3.2% increase YoY, while aluminum billet production was 8.4mnt, up 6.2% YoY [2] - Aluminum billet production for the week was 365kt, flat WoW, and up 9% YoY [2] Inventory Summary - The total inventory of aluminum ingots was 493kt, down 3% WoW and 40% YoY, while aluminum billet inventory was 229kt, up 9% WoW but down 30% YoY [3] - The inventory levels are lower than the same period in 2021-2024 on a lunar calendar basis [7] Consumption Summary - Apparent consumption of aluminum ingots was 885kt, down 3% WoW but up 1% YoY, while aluminum billet apparent consumption was 329kt, down 7% WoW but up 3% YoY [4] - Year-to-date apparent consumption of aluminum in China reached 21.6mnt, reflecting a 5.8% increase YoY [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of policies in China's aluminum profile industry, emphasizing the shift towards high-quality development, green technology, and international competitiveness in the sector [1][3][7]. Policy Evolution - The aluminum profile industry's policy development has followed the macro policies of the aluminum processing industry, transitioning from capacity restrictions to promoting new materials and enhancing recycling technology [1]. - Key milestones include the 2011 "12th Five-Year Plan" which aimed to control the blind expansion of electrolytic aluminum capacity and the 2024 announcement to cancel export tax rebates for aluminum products to guide domestic enterprises towards high-quality development [1][3]. National Policy Summary - The Chinese government has made comprehensive plans for the aluminum profile industry, focusing on green and low-carbon development, particularly in the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3]. - Recent policies include the cancellation of export tax rebates to encourage high-quality development and the promotion of standards for aluminum alloys and composite materials [3][7]. Key Policy Documents - A summary of key policies includes: - "High-Quality Development Implementation Plan (2025-2027)" aiming for a significant increase in aluminum resource security and recycling capacity by 2027 [4]. - "Action Plan for Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction in the Electrolytic Aluminum Industry" targeting a 30% share of benchmark energy efficiency capacity by 2025 and a recycling aluminum output of 11.5 million tons [11][12]. Provincial Policy Initiatives - Various provinces have introduced policies to enhance the aluminum processing industry, focusing on safety, technological advancement, and environmental sustainability [13][14]. - For instance, Guangdong aims to improve energy efficiency levels of aluminum products by 5% by 2025, while Jiangsu plans to update significant equipment in aluminum processing facilities by 2027 [18]. Future Outlook - The demand for aluminum alloy new materials is expected to grow significantly, driving technological reforms and development in the aluminum profile industry [17].

Core Viewpoint - China Aluminum Corporation's board of directors has approved participation in public bidding for mining rights in Shanxi Province, indicating a strategic move to expand its resource base and enhance its investment plans for 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Bidding for Exploration Rights - The board has unanimously agreed to allow a subsidiary to participate in the public bidding for exploration rights of the bauxite mine in the Lijia Mountain area of Jiaokou County, Shanxi Province, with a bidding price not lower than the starting price [1]. - If successful, this project will be added to the company's 2025 investment plan, leading to an increase in capital expenditure for that year [1]. - The board has authorized the chairman or designated individuals to handle all matters related to the bidding and sign necessary documents [1]. Group 2: Bidding for Mining Rights - The board has also approved participation in the public bidding for mining rights in the Huazhai area of Jiaokou County, Shanxi Province, with a similar stipulation regarding the bidding price [2]. - Successful acquisition of this mining right will also be included in the company's 2025 investment plan, resulting in an increase in capital expenditure [2]. - The chairman or authorized individuals are similarly empowered to manage all related affairs and documentation for this bidding process [2].

股票代码：601600 股票简称：中国铝业 公告编号：临2025-042 中国铝业股份有限公司 第八届董事会第三十五次会议决议公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或 者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 2025年6月20日，中国铝业股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）召开第八届董事 会第三十五次会议。本次会议应出席董事8人，实际出席董事8人，有效表决人数8人。 本次会议的召集、召开和表决程序符合《中华人民共和国公司法》等有关法律、法 规及《中国铝业股份有限公司章程》的规定。会议审议并一致通过了以下2项议案： 议案表决情况：有权表决票数8票，同意8票，反对0票，弃权0票。 特此公告。 中国铝业股份有限公司董事会 2025年6月20日 经审议，董事会同意公司所属企业参与山西省交口县李家山区块铝土矿探矿权 的公开竞买，竞拍价格不低于该探矿权的挂牌起始价。如竞买成功，董事会同意将 该项目补充列入公司2025年投资计划并相应增加公司2025年资本性支出计划。 同时，董事会同意授权公司董事长或董事长授权的其他人士具体负责办理与上 述竞买探矿权相关的一切事宜及 ...

Group 1: Liquidity and Performance of Rare Earth ETF - The liquidity of the Rare Earth ETF managed by Jiashi has a turnover rate of 2.74%, with a transaction volume of 66.81 million yuan [2] - Over the past week, the average daily transaction volume of the Rare Earth ETF reached 122 million yuan, ranking first among comparable funds [2] - In the last two weeks, the Rare Earth ETF's scale increased by 568 million yuan, achieving significant growth and ranking first in new scale among comparable funds [2] - The ETF's shares increased by 39.5 million in the past week, indicating substantial growth [2] - In the last five trading days, there were net inflows on three days, totaling 115 million yuan [2] - As of June 18, the net value of the Rare Earth ETF has risen by 30.55% over the past year, ranking 376 out of 2857 in the index stock fund category, placing it in the top 13.16% [2] - Since its inception, the ETF has recorded a highest monthly return of 41.25%, with the longest consecutive monthly gains being four months and a maximum cumulative increase of 83.89% [2] Group 2: Key Holdings and Market Dynamics - As of May 30, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Rare Earth Industry Index account for 57.28% of the index, including Northern Rare Earth, China Rare Earth, Wolong Electric Drive, and others [2] - The Ministry of Commerce announced on June 19 that it will expedite the review of rare earth export license applications, emphasizing the importance of maintaining global supply chain stability [4] - Recent reports suggest that domestic export licenses are being gradually issued, and rising prices abroad are expected to be transmitted to the domestic market [5] - The domestic rare earth prices are currently at a cyclical low, with expectations for a continued upward adjustment in price levels [5] - Investors can consider the Rare Earth ETF Jiashi linked fund (011036) to capitalize on investment opportunities in the rare earth sector [5]

Core Viewpoint - The rare earth industry is experiencing fluctuations, with the China Rare Earth Industry Index down by 1.59% as of June 19, 2025, while specific stocks show mixed performance, indicating a volatile market environment [1][3]. Industry Summary - The rare earth sector is crucial for various industries, including electric vehicles and wind power, with China producing nearly 70% of the world's rare earth materials as of 2024, highlighting its significant role in the global supply chain [5][6]. - The overall attention on the rare earth sector is expected to increase due to its pricing power and extensive downstream applications, alongside policy catalysts that may lead to a revaluation of the sector [6]. Company Summary - The rare earth ETF managed by Harvest (516150) has shown a trading volume of 2.75% and a transaction value of 67.89 million yuan, ranking first among comparable funds in terms of average daily trading volume over the past week [3]. - The Harvest rare earth ETF has seen a net inflow of 9.1964 million yuan recently, with a total of 26.9 million yuan in net inflows over the past five trading days, indicating strong investor interest [3]. - As of June 18, 2025, the Harvest rare earth ETF's net asset value has increased by 30.55% over the past year, placing it in the top 13.16% among equity index funds [3].

Overview - The aluminum industry is a crucial foundational industry in the country, serving as a primary industrial metal raw material for manufacturing and supporting high-tech development and national defense [1][11] - In 2024, China's aluminum production is projected to reach 67.83 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.61%, with demand expected to reach 61.93 million tons, up 6.52% [1][11] Market Policies - A series of policies have been implemented to promote the aluminum industry's sustainable development, including the "Implementation Plan for High-Quality Development of the Aluminum Industry (2025-2027)" and various guidelines aimed at enhancing recycling and green manufacturing [4][6] Industry Chain - The upstream of the aluminum industry includes bauxite, recycled aluminum, and production equipment, while the midstream involves aluminum processing and manufacturing, and the downstream encompasses applications in construction, transportation, packaging, and electronics [7][9] Development Status - The aluminum industry has seen continuous optimization of its structure and improvement in equipment technology, forming a comprehensive industrial system [1][11] - The market size of China's aluminum industry is expected to reach 1.523 trillion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.43% [13] Competitive Landscape - The aluminum industry in China is characterized by intense competition with numerous participants, including major companies like China Aluminum, Innovation New Materials, and Yun Aluminum [15][18] - In 2024, China Aluminum's total revenue is projected to reach 237.1 billion yuan, significantly leading the market [15][18] Development Trends - Due to insufficient domestic bauxite resources and high dependence on imports, Chinese aluminum processing companies are expected to engage more in international cooperation to secure raw material supplies [24]

Group 1 - The rare earth permanent magnet sector experienced a decline of 2.57%, ranking among the top losers in the concept sector, with companies like Ningbo Yunsheng and Huayang New Materials hitting the daily limit down [1][2] - Among the stocks in the rare earth permanent magnet sector, five stocks saw price increases, with Huawu Co., Ltd. rising by 5.92%, Fangbang Co., Ltd. by 4.30%, and Lingyi Intelligent Manufacturing by 3.78% [1][2] - The sector faced a net outflow of 2.44 billion yuan from major funds, with 49 stocks experiencing outflows, and nine stocks seeing outflows exceeding 100 million yuan, led by Ningbo Yunsheng with a net outflow of 274.4 million yuan [2][3] Group 2 - The top net outflow stocks in the rare earth permanent magnet sector included Ningbo Yunsheng, Northern Rare Earth, and China Rare Earth, with net outflows of 274.4 million yuan, 232 million yuan, and 191.2 million yuan respectively [2][3] - The stocks with the highest net inflows included Lingyi Intelligent Manufacturing, Huawu Co., Ltd., and China Aluminum, with net inflows of 159 million yuan, 52.78 million yuan, and 44.94 million yuan respectively [4]

Group 1: Liquidity and Performance of Rare Earth ETF - The liquidity of the Rare Earth ETF managed by Jiashi has a turnover rate of 2.9% with a transaction volume of 71.903 million yuan [2] - Over the past week, the average daily transaction volume of the Rare Earth ETF reached 174 million yuan, ranking first among comparable funds [2] - The fund's scale increased by 244 million yuan in the past week, also ranking first among comparable funds [2] - The number of shares increased by 22.2 million in the past week, achieving significant growth and ranking first among comparable funds [2] - In the last five trading days, there were net inflows on four days, totaling 338 million yuan [2] - As of June 17, the net value of the Rare Earth ETF has risen by 34.53% over the past year, ranking 284 out of 2854 in the index stock fund category, placing it in the top 9.95% [2] - The highest monthly return since inception was 41.25%, with the longest consecutive monthly increase being four months and the longest increase percentage being 83.89% [2] Group 2: Key Holdings and Market Dynamics - As of May 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Rare Earth Industry Index accounted for 57.28% of the index, including Northern Rare Earth, China Rare Earth, and others [2] - Recent reports indicate a phased relaxation of rare earth export controls, allowing some rare earth magnetic material companies to obtain export licenses, although controls are not fully lifted [4] - The demand for rare earth materials is expected to remain strong due to sectors like new energy vehicles, home appliances, and wind power, with potential upward pressure from humanoid robots [5] - The market anticipates a reversal in supply and demand dynamics, with rare earths expected to benefit from both profit and valuation increases due to tariff policies exceeding market expectations [5]

Macro and Strategy Research - The economic data for May 2025 shows that the industrial added value increased by 5.8% year-on-year, which is lower than the expected 6.0% and the previous value of 6.1% [3] - The retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 4.9% and the previous value of 5.1% [3] - Fixed asset investment accumulated a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, below the expected 4.1% and the previous value of 4.0% [3] - The decline in industrial added value is attributed to fewer working days and a lag in production due to tariff adjustments, particularly affecting labor-intensive industries like textiles [3] - The service sector's production index grew by 6.2%, indicating a slight improvement from April [3] Consumption Growth Challenges - The significant rise in retail sales is driven by holiday consumption and promotional activities, reaching a new high in nearly a year [4] - Automotive sales increased by 11.2% year-on-year, but overall sales revenue growth is limited due to pricing factors [4] - Future consumption may struggle to maintain current levels due to policy adjustments and potential overconsumption [4] Investment Needs Policy Support - Fixed asset investment growth has declined for two consecutive months, with manufacturing investment decreasing by 0.4 percentage points to 7.8% year-on-year [4] - Ten out of twelve sub-sectors in manufacturing saw a slowdown in investment growth, particularly in transportation equipment and non-ferrous metal smelting [4] - Infrastructure investment growth decreased to 9.3%, with local debt pressures limiting project funding [5] - Real estate investment saw a significant decline, with sales in major cities dropping and funding sources for real estate companies decreasing by 10.5% year-on-year [5] Fixed Income Research - The overall issuance rates for credit bonds have mostly decreased, with a range of -7 basis points to 6 basis points [7] - The net financing amount for credit bonds has decreased, with corporate bonds and short-term financing bonds seeing an increase in net financing [7] - The secondary market for credit bonds has seen a significant increase in transaction volume, with most varieties experiencing growth [7] - The credit spreads for medium and short-term notes, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds have generally narrowed [7] Industry Research - The metal industry is experiencing traditional seasonal characteristics, with demand expected to decline as summer approaches [15] - Steel prices are expected to remain weak due to increasing inventory pressures [15] - Copper prices are supported by tight supply and low inventory, but lack upward momentum in the short term [15] - Gold prices are bolstered by international trade tensions and geopolitical factors, with a need to monitor macroeconomic data and interest rate expectations [15] - The lithium market faces oversupply issues, leading to expected price weakness [15]