2026 年 02 月 25 日 公司研究●证券研究报告 | | | 拓普集团（601689.SH） 公司快报 2025 年业绩预告点评：全年业绩符合预期，机 器人、液冷蓄势待发 投资要点 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 19,701 | 26,600 | 29,735 | 36,521 | 44,111 | | YoY(%) | 23.2 | 35.0 | 11.8 | 22.8 | 20.8 | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 2,151 | 3,001 | 2,768 | 3,467 | 4,347 | | YoY(%) | 26.5 | 39.5 | -7.8 | 25.3 | 25.4 | | 毛利率(%) | 23.0 | 20.8 | 19.3 | 19.7 | 20.2 | | EPS(摊薄/元) | 1.24 | 1.73 | 1.59 | 2.00 | 2.50 | | ROE(%) | 15.6 | 15. ...

2026 年 2 月 23 日│中国内地 动态点评 汽车 增持 (维持) | 宋亭亭 | 研究员 | | --- | --- | | SAC No. S0570522110001 | songtingting021619@htsc.com | | SFC No. BTK945 | +(86) 21 2897 2228 | | 张硕* | 研究员 | | SAC No. S0570524110001 zhangshuo023124@htsc.com | | | | +(86) 21 2897 2228 | 郭春麟* 联系人 SAC No. S0570124110001 guochunlin@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 证券研究报告 汽车 国产机器人亮相春晚有望点燃市场热情 ——智驾&机器人双周报 2 华泰研究 行业走势图 (15) (6) 3 12 21 Feb-25 Jun-25 Oct-25 Feb-26 (%) 汽车 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华泰研究 重点推荐 | | | 目标价 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股票名称 | 股票代码 | ...

Group 1: Weichuang Electric / Automation Equipment - The company is strengthening collaborations to promote technological innovation and market expansion in the robot-driven component business [4] - Plans to establish a joint venture in Thailand with Zhejiang Rongtai to expand the smart robot electromechanical integration market, with both parties holding 50% shares [4] - The company aims to deepen industry demand and continue global expansion, focusing on regions like Asia, Africa, and Latin America while enhancing product offerings [5] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 1.977 billion, 2.444 billion, and 3.108 billion yuan, with net profits of 288 million, 346 million, and 419 million yuan respectively [6] Group 2: Lenovo Group / Computer Equipment - Lenovo reported FY2026Q3 revenue of approximately 22.204 billion USD, an 18% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 546 million USD, down 21% year-on-year [7][8] - The adjusted net profit increased by 36% year-on-year, driven by efficiency optimization and a high-end product mix [8] - The Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) is undergoing strategic restructuring, expected to accelerate the return to profitability in FY2027 [9] Group 3: Shipping and Ports Industry - National import and export total reached 45.47 trillion yuan in 2025, with a 3.8% year-on-year growth [13] - Container throughput at major coastal ports reached 31.198 million TEUs, a 7% year-on-year increase [15] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rose by 135.95% year-on-year, indicating a significant increase in dry bulk shipping rates [19] Group 4: Google-A / Overseas - Google reported Q4 2025 revenue of 113.828 billion USD, an 18% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 33.455 billion USD, up 30% year-on-year [25] - Search advertising revenue grew by 17% year-on-year, driven by AI innovations enhancing user experience and monetization efficiency [26] - Google Cloud revenue surged by 48% year-on-year, reaching 17.7 billion USD, with a significant increase in annual recurring revenue [27] Group 5: Yutong Technology / Packaging Printing - The company plans to acquire 51% of Huayan Technology for 449 million yuan, aiming to enhance its capabilities in precision manufacturing [32][34] - The acquisition is expected to leverage industry synergies and empower the second growth curve, focusing on high-profile clients like Google and Samsung [34] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 19.069 billion, 21.001 billion, and 23.077 billion yuan, with net profits of 1.608 billion, 1.798 billion, and 1.980 billion yuan respectively [34] Group 6: NetEase-S / Gaming - NetEase reported Q4 2025 revenue of 27.5 billion yuan, a 3% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 6.2 billion yuan, down 28.8% year-on-year [36][37] - The gaming segment showed resilience with a revenue of 22 billion yuan, driven by strong performance from popular IPs and new game launches [38] - The company is focusing on AI-driven strategies to enhance operational efficiency and optimize its business structure [39] Group 7: Aidi Pharmaceutical / Biopharmaceuticals - The company is advancing its international product launch and received GMP certification from Tanzania, facilitating entry into the African market [43] - Revenue for 2025 is projected at 721 million yuan, a 72.57% year-on-year increase, with a focus on HIV innovative drug sales [43] - Multiple new drug pipelines are actively progressing, with significant clinical trial approvals received [44] Group 8: Meituan-W / Local Life Services - Meituan is projected to achieve total revenue of 916 billion yuan in Q4 2025, with a core local business revenue of 648 billion yuan, reflecting a competitive landscape [45][46] - The company is strategically increasing investments in marketing and rider incentives to enhance operational efficiency amid fierce competition [46] - Long-term growth potential is anticipated through refined operations in instant delivery and overseas expansion [49] Group 9: Huahong Semiconductor / Semiconductors - Huahong Semiconductor reported Q4 2025 revenue of 660 million USD, a 22.4% year-on-year increase, with a wafer shipment of 1.45 million pieces [50]

（1）近期全球 AI 产业在算力、模型与应用三端协同推进下，正为 AI 视 频生成技术规模化扩张与人形机器人现实落地夯实基础。算力端，AI 龙头 企业提出长期巨额算力支出规划并启动超大规模融资，加速新兴市场基础 设施布局，国内企业亦获得巨额融资与互联网巨头协同支持，显示算力资 源正向资本与生态优势主体集中。模型端，多模态统一建模与高性价比智 能体模型并行演进，推动视频生成能力提升与成本下降，同时强化复杂任 务规划与端侧推理能力，为机器人自主决策与内容工业化生产提供技术支 撑。应用端，AI 视频生成在春晚完成高规格实战检验，人形机器人走向真 实任务验证。整体来看，算力集中与模型效率优化正加速推动 AI 视频内 容工业化与人形机器人场景化落地。 （2）算力与基础设施方面，近期全球 AI 产业出现超大规模资本开支，算 力全球化布局显著提速。海外方面，OpenAI 向投资者更新长期规划，提出 到 2030 年实现约 6000 亿美元算力支出，并启动规模或超 1000 亿美元融 资，且支出目标与未来营收预期直接挂钩，显示模型公司正通过股权融资 与上游芯片及云厂商形成深度绑定，提前锁定算力供给；在印度 AI 影响 峰会上 ...

中新社曼谷2月23日电 (李映民 刘宇博)泰国投资委员会秘书长那里·特斯迪拉素迪23日表示，该委员会已 批准5家中国企业在泰投资设厂，生产人形机器人结构框架及关节、手臂和手指控制系统。 这5家公司首期投资总额超过100亿泰铢，计划聘用逾1000名泰国高技能人才。项目投产后，预计每年在 泰采购原材料及零部件金额将超过450亿泰铢。 那里·特斯迪拉素迪表示，当前正值泰国培育未来经济新增长引擎的关键阶段。在电动汽车、半导体与 高端电子、数字产业及生物产业等领域已有全球企业加快布局的基础上，人形机器人核心零部件制造正 成为新的投资热点。这不仅有助于扩大泰国既有工业零部件制造优势，也将为未来机器人及自动化产业 集群奠定基础。(完) 这5家企业分别为杭州新剑机电传动股份有限公司、东莞贝特科技股份有限公司、浙江三花智控股份有 限公司、宁波拓普集团股份有限公司和宁波旭升集团股份有限公司。 据介绍，上述企业将生产高精度金属部件、运动系统及高效传动组件，主要客户为特斯拉，同时还将为 苹果、三星、华为等企业供货。 ...

2月23日，港股市场迎来马年第二个交易日，机器人概念板块（887755.WI）表现亮眼，截至午盘大涨 1.76%。成分股中，ASMPT（05522.HK）大涨5.27%，华虹半导体（1347.HK）大涨4.83%，耐世特、金 力永磁、天工国际等个股跟涨。 | < W | [HK]人形机器人指数(887755) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1743.45 30.20 +1.76% | | | | 済設 | 成分 | 资讯 | 相关基金 | | 名称 | 现价 | | 涨跌幅÷ | | ASMPT | 110.900 | | 5.72% | | 0522.HK | | | | | 农虹未营体 | 98.700 | | 4.83% | | 1347.HK | | | | | 中芯国际 | 70.750 | | 4.51% | | 0981.HK | | | | | 耐世特 | 8.020 | | 3.75% | | 1316.HK | | | | | 比亚迪电子 | 33.500 | | 3.46% | | 0285.HK | | | | | 三一国际 | 15.410 ...

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between Yushu Technology and Tagou Martial Arts School for the Spring Festival Gala showcased significant advancements in humanoid robotics, leading to a surge in interest and investment in the robotics sector, particularly in related ETFs [1]. Investment Opportunities - The market has seen a more than 300% increase in robot-related searches on JD.com within two hours of the gala, indicating heightened investor interest in the robotics industry [1]. - Two main robotics indices are highlighted: the Guozhen Robotics Industry Index and the Zhongzheng Robotics Index, each with different focuses and compositions [1][2]. Index Characteristics - The Guozhen Robotics Industry Index focuses on humanoid robots and core components, with nearly 80% of its weight in humanoid robot-related companies, suggesting higher sensitivity to market movements in this segment [3]. - The Zhongzheng Robotics Index has a broader coverage, including software and hardware providers for robotics, with approximately 65% weight in humanoid robots [3]. - The Guozhen index has 50 constituent stocks with a more balanced weight distribution, while the Zhongzheng index has 66 stocks with a higher concentration in its top holdings [3][4]. Performance Metrics - The Guozhen Robotics Industry Index has shown a return of +23.52% over the past year, while the Zhongzheng Robotics Index has returned +21.09% [2]. - The top ten holdings in both indices include companies like Greentec, iFlytek, and Top Group, with the Guozhen index featuring unique companies like Sanhua Intelligent Control [3][4]. Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to choose between the two indices based on their investment goals and risk tolerance, with the Guozhen Robotics Industry Index being a preferable option for those targeting humanoid robotics specifically [5].

Investment Highlights - The SW Auto Parts Index increased by 1.69% this week, ranking 3rd among SW Auto sectors, with a year-to-date increase of 4.94% [3][12] - The latest PE (TTM) for SW Auto Parts is at the 85.68% historical percentile, while the PB (LF) is at the 79.62% historical percentile [3][35] - The trading activity in the auto parts sector has shown a gradual increase since February [3][30] Robotics Sector Review - The Wande Robotics Index rose by 2.27% this week, with a year-to-date increase of 2.54%, outperforming the SW Auto Parts sector by 0.58% [4][12] - The latest PE (TTM) for the robotics sector is at the 73.90% percentile for the past year, and the PB (LF) is at the 78.31% percentile [4][46] - The trading heat in the robotics sector is at a low point since 2025 [4][40] Key Company Developments - Sensible Group will establish a joint venture in North America with Green Harmony for robotic joint modules [5] - Top Group forecasts 2025 revenue between 28.75 billion to 30.35 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.6 billion to 2.9 billion yuan [5] - Feilong Co. increased its investment in Longtai Company by 732 million yuan [5] - New Spring established a wholly-owned subsidiary in Shanghai [5] Top Performers of the Week - The top five gainers this week include: - Precision Forging Technology +28.98% - Sensible Group +17.05% - Naisite +16.22% - Yinlun Co. +7.73% - Changhua Group +7.34% [6][54] Major Events - The release of the world's first warehouse robot Gino 1 by Jizhi Jia [8] - Xiaomi open-sourced its first-generation robot VLA large model [8] - UBTECH and the humanoid robot innovation center launched the full-size research humanoid robot "Tiangong Walker DEX" [8] Investment Recommendations - For auto parts, focus on structural opportunities by selecting product-oriented companies and those entering high-value sectors to increase ASP, with a priority on companies expanding capacity in Europe, North America, and Southeast Asia [9] - For robotics, look for certainty in opportunities, especially with the anticipated release of Optimus V3 in Q1 2026, and monitor the order timeline and application deployment by domestic companies like Xiaopeng, Yuzhu, and Zhiyuan [9] - Recommended stocks based on EPS include: Fuyao Glass, Xingyu Co., Sensible Group, Junsheng Electronics, and Xingyuan Zhuomei, with New Spring as a focus [9] - Recommended stocks based on PE include: Top Group, Junsheng Electronics, Shuanghuan Transmission, Sensible Group, Yinlun Co., and Feilong Co., with a focus on Yapu Co. and Daimai Co. [9]

Core Viewpoint - The company forecasts a revenue of 28.75 to 30.35 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.08% to 14.10%, while net profit is expected to decline by 3.35% to 13.35% [3]. Revenue Forecast - For Q4 2025, the company anticipates revenue between 7.822 to 9.422 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.91% to 29.99% [4]. - The revenue forecast is supported by the Tier 0.5 collaboration model and a diverse product lineup [5]. Profit Analysis - The company expects a decline in net profit for 2025 due to rising raw material costs and depreciation of overseas production capacity, leading to a lower-than-expected profit growth [5]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is between 2.6 to 2.9 billion yuan, with a decrease in the non-recurring net profit forecast as well [3]. Customer Performance - Key customer performance in Q4 includes: - U.S. Customer A: 418,200 units sold, down 15.61% year-on-year and 15.87% quarter-on-quarter - Geely: 854,400 units sold, up 24.39% year-on-year and 12.27% quarter-on-quarter - BYD: 1,342,300 units sold, down 11.94% year-on-year but up 20.47% quarter-on-quarter - Seres New Energy: 154,200 units sold, up 59.85% year-on-year and 24.39% quarter-on-quarter - Li Auto: 109,200 units sold, down 31.19% year-on-year but up 17.15% quarter-on-quarter [6]. International Expansion - The company plans to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to accelerate its international strategy and enhance overseas production capacity [7]. Order Acquisition - In H1 2025, the company secured initial orders worth 1.5 billion yuan for its thermal management business, including sectors like liquid cooling and energy storage [8]. Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company maintains a net profit forecast of 2.813 billion yuan for 2025, with adjustments to the 2026-2027 profit expectations due to raw material price impacts [9]. - The current market valuation corresponds to a PE ratio of 44/37/29 for 2025-2027, and the company is rated as a "buy" due to ongoing growth potential from thermal management orders and new product developments [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth in 2025, driven by the synergistic development of "robotics + vehicles + liquid cooling" [1] - The revenue forecast for 2025 is projected to be between 287.50 billion and 303.50 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.08% to 14.10% [8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline by 3.35% to 13.35%, with estimates ranging from 26.00 billion to 29.00 billion yuan [8] - The company plans to issue H shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to accelerate its international strategy and enhance overseas capacity [8] - The company has secured a 1.5 billion yuan order in its thermal management business, indicating strong demand in international markets [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is reported at 19.701 billion yuan, with a projected increase to 29.939 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 12.55% [1] - The net profit for 2023 is 2.151 billion yuan, with a forecasted decline to 2.813 billion yuan in 2025, indicating a decrease of 6.25% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 1.62 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 44.48 [1] - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 37.544 billion yuan in 2024 to 60.648 billion yuan in 2027 [9] - The company’s debt-to-equity ratio is expected to decrease from 47.84% in 2024 to 45.49% in 2027, indicating improved financial stability [9]