联合研究丨组合推荐 [Table_Title] 大消费行业 2026 年 1 月金股推荐 %% %% %% %% 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 11 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 长江大消费九大优势行业（农业、零售、社服、汽车、纺服、轻工、食品、家电、医药）2026 年 1 月重点推荐金股。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 陈佳 李锦 赵刚 SAC：S0490513080003 SAC：S0490514080004 SAC：S0490517020001 SFC：BQT624 SFC：BUV258 SFC：BUX176 高伊楠 于旭辉 蔡方羿 SAC：S0490517060001 SAC：S0490518020002 SAC：S0490516060001 SFC：BUW101 SFC：BUU942 SFC：BUV463 董思远 陈亮 彭英骐 SAC：S0490517070016 SAC：S0490517070017 SAC：S0490524030005 SFC：BQK487 SFC：BUW408 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Recommended" for the automotive industry [2]. Core Insights - Baidu's collaboration with Uber and Lyft to launch a Robotaxi pilot project in the UK in 2026 is a significant development, indicating a global expansion strategy for domestic Robotaxi operators [3][4]. - The report highlights that leading domestic Robotaxi operators are achieving positive unit economics (UE) per vehicle, driven by fleet expansion and reduced vehicle costs, with expectations for rapid growth in fleet size in 2026 [4]. - The report emphasizes the potential for improved operational performance and market expansion for Robotaxi operators, particularly in regions where traditional ride-hailing costs are significantly higher than in China [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the strategic importance of partnerships with international ride-hailing platforms for domestic Robotaxi operators, facilitating their global market expansion [4]. - It notes that the first L3 level vehicles have received approval for mass production, marking a significant step towards the widespread application of autonomous driving technology [2]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that leading players in the Robotaxi sector are achieving profitability on a per-vehicle basis, with companies like Luobo Kuaipao and Xiaoma Zhixing reporting positive unit economics in specific cities [4]. - The cost of autonomous driving kits has decreased significantly, with Xiaoma Zhixing reporting a reduction of over 70% compared to previous generations, further supporting profitability [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on key companies such as XPeng Motors, Desay SV, Huayang Group, Bertel, Junsheng Electronics, Xiaoma Zhixing, Horizon Robotics, Nexperia, and Top Group, as they are expected to perform well in the growing Robotaxi market [4][6].

Core Insights - The actuator industry in China has established a complete industrial chain, with upstream focusing on raw materials and core technology components, midstream accelerating towards intelligent development, and downstream driven by traditional industries and emerging fields like robotics and renewable energy [1][5][9]. Industry Overview - Actuators are critical components in automation control systems, converting controller signals into mechanical actions to regulate production parameters [2][3]. - The actuator market is projected to reach 33 billion yuan in 2024 and 82 billion yuan by 2030, driven by technological upgrades and domestic replacements [1][13]. Upstream Development - The upstream sector includes key components like motors, reducers, and sensors, with domestic breakthroughs in motors and reducers, but a notable gap in high-end precision components like encoders [7][9]. - Domestic companies have made significant progress in servo motors and harmonic reducers, but high-end encoder markets remain dominated by international firms [7][9]. Downstream Demand - The demand for actuators is characterized by a dual structure of traditional and emerging markets, with industrial automation as the foundation and new energy and robotics as growth drivers [9][10]. - The humanoid robot sector is expected to see explosive growth, with the market projected to increase from approximately 2.4 billion yuan in 2025 to 25.4 billion yuan by 2030, highlighting the actuator's role as a core component [11][12]. Market Segmentation - The actuator market is segmented into electric, pneumatic, hydraulic, and special actuators, with electric actuators leading growth due to their advantages in smart applications [14][15]. - The electric actuator market is expected to reach 17.8 billion yuan by 2025, while pneumatic and hydraulic actuators maintain stable growth in their respective applications [14][15]. Competitive Landscape - The actuator industry features a diverse competitive landscape with foreign brands dominating high-end markets and domestic leaders making significant inroads through innovation and localization [15][16]. - Domestic brands are expected to capture 58% of the market share by 2024, with projections to exceed 70% by 2030, driven by technological advancements and market responsiveness [15][16]. Future Trends - The industry is set to evolve with a focus on technological innovation, market optimization, and industrial upgrades, emphasizing the integration of IoT and AI into actuator products [16][17]. - The market will see a shift towards high-end applications and a collaborative development model among core and supporting enterprises, enhancing overall competitiveness [18].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on companies such as BYD, Geely Automobile, and others in the automotive sector, as well as companies like Li Auto-W, Xpeng Motors-W, and others in the smart technology and robotics sectors [2]. Core Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference has outlined six key tasks related to the automotive industry, emphasizing domestic demand, innovation, reform, openness, coordinated development, and green transformation, which are expected to stabilize and boost automotive demand [12][13]. - The report highlights that passenger car exports have maintained a year-on-year growth rate of over 20% for six consecutive months, with expectations for double-digit growth in wholesale exports by 2026 due to recovering demand in markets like Russia and the increasing export of new energy vehicles [14]. - The report notes that the smart driving experience is expected to improve significantly with advancements in new architectures and high-performance chips, leading to increased consumer acceptance and sales for leading companies in smart driving technology [17][20]. Industry Data Tracking Market and Sector Performance - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index increased by 1.95%, while the Shenwan Automotive Index rose by 2.74% [21]. - The top five stocks with the highest gains this week included Chaojie Co. (+41.6%), Longji Machinery (+33.7%), and others, while the top five stocks with the largest declines included Meidong Automotive (-6.5%) and others [28]. Passenger Car Sales Data - In December 2025, the wholesale sales of passenger cars reached 568,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 9%, while the retail sales were 536,000 units, also down 11% year-on-year [4][32]. - For November 2025, wholesale sales were 2.991 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%, with new energy vehicle wholesale sales at 1.694 million units, up 17.6% year-on-year [5][35]. - The report indicates that the export of passenger cars in November was 594,000 units, reflecting a 50% year-on-year increase, with new energy vehicle exports reaching 273,000 units, up 244.1% year-on-year [51][57]. Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the rapid development of smart technology and robotics, with significant advancements in autonomous driving and AI integration in vehicles, indicating a shift towards a more intelligent automotive market [17][19]. - The report also mentions the increasing focus on new energy vehicles and the expansion of charging infrastructure, which has reached 19.322 million charging points, marking a 52% year-on-year growth [73].

Core Conclusions - The overall beta of the automotive parts sector is expected to weaken in 2026, with structural opportunities being more favorable than total opportunities. The focus should be on "smart driving (L2++/L3/L4) + liquid cooling (AIDC) + humanoid robots" as the three main technology lines, along with the long-term certainty of "going overseas" [2][34] - EPS perspective: 1) Seek alpha that can traverse cycles in the existing market, prioritizing product companies with high competitiveness that can increase market share and companies that can enhance ASP by entering high-value tracks through internal and external expansion. 2) Globalization opens up growth space for automotive parts, with a significant increase in growth potential and risk resistance by prioritizing capacity layout in Europe, North America, and Southeast Asia [2][34] - Recommended companies include Fuyao Glass, Xingyu Co., Minth Group, Joyson Electronics, and Xingyuan Zhuomag, with New Spring Co. as a focus [2] EPS Dimension Outlook - The automotive parts sector's beta is expected to be weak due to domestic total factors in 2026, with structural opportunities preferred over total opportunities. The focus should be on high-competitiveness product companies that can increase market share and those that can enhance ASP by entering high-value tracks through internal and external expansion [34] - Globalization is expected to open up growth space for automotive parts, with incremental orders mainly coming from Southeast Asia and European new energy markets [34] Market Review - The automotive parts sector's overall performance in 2025 was significantly influenced by AI and robotics, with the sector index outperforming the market in the first half of the year. However, it faced challenges in the second half due to U.S. tariffs and price wars [11][19] - The sector's valuation fluctuated, starting from approximately 21 times earnings at the beginning of 2025, peaking at 32 times by September, and then adjusting back down due to tariff impacts and slower-than-expected robotics progress [11][19] Globalization and Market Expansion - The global light vehicle production is projected to reach 78.82 million units in 2024, with overseas markets, particularly in Europe and North America, being significant contributors [52][57] - Chinese automotive parts companies are increasingly following domestic car manufacturers in their overseas expansion, leveraging cost control and response efficiency advantages [60][61] Recommended Companies and Focus Areas - Companies recommended for investment include Fuyao Glass, Xingyu Co., Minth Group, and others that are positioned to benefit from high competitiveness and market share growth [2][34] - Focus areas include smart driving technologies, liquid cooling systems, and humanoid robotics, which are expected to drive growth in the automotive parts sector [2][34]

Market Strategy - The Shanghai Composite Index has experienced seven consecutive days of gains, indicating a market that is entering a period of oscillation and upward movement, although the overall increase remains limited [2][7] - The report suggests a focus on structural investments rather than index-heavy strategies, recommending broad-based ETFs that reflect mid-cap blue-chip characteristics [7] - Key sectors identified for investment include advanced manufacturing, non-bank financials, technology, and cyclical industries, which are expected to attract incremental capital and serve as the backbone of the market during this upward trend [7] Industry Strategy - The coal industry is highlighted, with coking coal prices expected to rebound due to seasonal inventory replenishment by downstream steel and coking plants, which is anticipated to support prices in the short term [4][7] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the coking coal sector for investment opportunities, particularly as downstream purchasing behavior shifts from a wait-and-see approach to active procurement [7] - Recommended stocks in the coal sector include Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225) and Jincheng Anthracite Mining Group (601001), both rated for increased holdings [7] Thematic Strategy - The humanoid robot sector is noted for significant advancements in motion control technology, with mass production expected to accelerate in 2026 [5][7] - Recent demonstrations by Tesla and Yush Robot showcase rapid progress in humanoid robot capabilities, indicating a shift in market focus towards actual production rather than just technological advancements [7] - Companies with strong manufacturing and management capabilities in the components sector are expected to benefit from this trend, with Top Group (601689) recommended for purchase [7]

群益证券(香港)研报指出，2026年人形机器人量产提速，拓普集团执行器业务有望受益。展望2026年， 特斯拉计划Q1发布第三代Optimus，并于年内实现产能建设；国内人形机器人企业将拓展更多商业化场 景，行业整体有望迎来爆发增长。而公司2023年便已成立电驱事业部，产品涵盖直线执行器、旋转执行 器、灵巧手等环节，单机价值高达数万元人民币。公司在技术水平、产能建设等方面均处于国内领先地 位，项目进展迅速，目前已经与国内外头部人形机器人深度合作，有望成为首批Tier1厂商。此外，公 司液冷业务已取得首批订单15亿元，预计2026年将产生收入，并且公司积极与华为、A客户、 NVIDIA、META等公司对接，我们看好液冷将和机器人执行器业务成为公司成长新动能。看好公司执 行器、液冷等新业务的发展潜力，对此给予公司"买进"的投资建议。 ...

| | | | 12月25日目标价涨幅排名 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券代码 | 证券名称 | 机构 | 最新评级 | 플날目牺牲 | 目标涨幅 | | | | | | (元) | (%) | | 300384 | 三联虹普 | 中信证券 | 买人 | 20.00 | 24.53 | | 600859 | 王府井 | 中信证券 | 买人 | 18.00 | 19.05 | | 601990 | 南京证券 | 华创证券 | 推荐 | 9.45 | 18.13 | | 600346 | 恒力石化 | 中信证券 | 买人 | 24.00 | 15.72 | | 601689 | 拓普集团 | 群益证券(香港) | 买进 | 81.00 | 12.77 | 从券商推荐家数来看，12月25日有20家上市公司得到券商推荐，其中领益智造获得2家推荐，国机重装、南京证 券等获得1家推荐。 | | 12月25日券商推荐家数排名 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 券代码 | 证券名称 | 收盘价 (元) | 评级 ...

南财投研通数据显示，12月25日，券商给予上市公司目标价共5次，按最新收盘价计算，目标价涨幅排名居前的 公司有三联虹普、王府井、南京证券，目标价涨幅分别为24.53%、19.05%、18.13%，分别属于专业工程、一般 零售、证券行业。 | | | | 12月25日目标价涨幅排名 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券代码 | 证券名称 | 机构 | 最新评级 | 플날目标伙 | 目标涨幅 (%) | | | | | | (元) | | | 300384 | 三联虹普 | 中信证券 | 买人 | 20.00 | 24.53 | | 600859 | 王府井 | 中信证券 | 买人 | 18.00 | 19.05 | | 601990 | 南京证券 | 华创证券 | 推荐 | 9.45 | 18.13 | | 600346 | 恒力石化 | 中信证券 | 买入 | 24.00 | 15.72 | | 601689 | 拓普集团 | 群益证券(香港) | 买进 | 81.00 | 12.77 | | ■ 12月20日 | | | 2011/2013 201 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating a potential upside of 15% to 35% [4][8]. Core Insights - The humanoid robot industry is expected to accelerate production in 2026, benefiting the company's actuator business, with global production projected to reach nearly 20,000 units in 2025. The company has established a leading position in technology and capacity, collaborating with top domestic and international humanoid robot manufacturers [5]. - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 is reported at RMB 20.93 billion, reflecting an 8.1% year-over-year increase, while net profit decreased by 12.0% to RMB 1.97 billion due to lower sales from overseas automotive clients and increased management and R&D expenses [5]. - The company is transitioning towards a platform-based enterprise, with stable fundamentals in interior components, chassis, and thermal management, while its automotive electronics business is experiencing rapid growth, achieving RMB 1.07 billion in revenue in the first half of 2025, a 52.1% year-over-year increase [5]. Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve net profits of RMB 2.74 billion, RMB 3.23 billion, and RMB 4.16 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of -8.7%, +18.0%, and +28.6% [7]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be RMB 1.58, RMB 1.86, and RMB 2.39 for the same years, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 43.87, 37.19, and 28.92 [7]. - The company has secured initial orders worth RMB 1.5 billion for its liquid cooling business, which is anticipated to generate revenue in 2026 [5].