Core Insights - The Chinese duty-free industry is experiencing a turning point due to improved policies, rising consumer confidence, and reduced external competition pressures, marking the establishment of a bottoming out phase for the industry [1][10]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The decline in the duty-free sector post-2020 was influenced by multiple factors, including increased competition from high commission models in Japan and South Korea, reduced consumer spending due to fluctuating income expectations, and limited supply from existing duty-free stores [1]. - Since 2023, government policies aimed at stimulating consumption have been effective, leading to a gradual recovery in consumer sentiment, particularly among middle to high-income households [3]. - The expansion of China's visa-free travel and cultural influence is enhancing the attractiveness of "China Travel" among international tourists, contributing to the recovery of passenger flow in port and city duty-free shops [6]. Group 2: Market Expansion - The duty-free market is set for rapid expansion with the introduction of 41 new port duty-free stores, as announced by the Ministry of Finance and other departments, aimed at increasing market scale through reasonable competition [6][10]. - The core duty-free market in Hainan is benefiting from favorable policies, with significant increases in sales figures, such as a 34.86% year-on-year growth in shopping amounts during the first week of new regulations [8]. Group 3: Company Insights - China Duty Free Group (601888) holds over 85% market share in Hainan's duty-free market, benefiting from zero tariffs and low corporate tax rates, with projected revenue growth from 45 billion to 60-65 billion yuan by 2026 [12]. - Hainan Airlines (600515) controls over 90% of air passenger flow in Hainan, with an increase in international routes expected to drive growth in air passenger and cargo transport [13]. - Hainan Haoyao (000566), while not a traditional duty-free operator, benefits from favorable policies in the biopharmaceutical sector, with a projected peak revenue contribution of 15 billion yuan from innovative drugs by 2026 [13].

增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [本Table_Summary] 周行业观点（注：文中"本周"指 1 月 26 日至 2 月 1 日） 证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·商贸零售 商贸零售行业跟踪周报 2026 年消费-商贸零售&社会服务业的八大 预测 2026 年 02 月 01 日 证券分析师 吴劲草 相关研究 《陕西旅游主板 IPO 过会，招股书详 细拆解》 执业证书：S0600520090006 wujc@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 石旖瑄 执业证书：S0600522040001 shiyx@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 张家璇 执业证书：S0600520120002 zhangjx@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 阳靖 执业证书：S0600523020005 yangjing@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 郗越 执业证书：S0600524080008 xiy@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 王琳婧 执业证书：S0600525070003 wanglj@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -8% -5% -2% 1% 4% 7% 10% 13% 16% 19% 22% 25% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the retail and consumer services industry for 2026 [1] Core Insights - The report anticipates a significant number of consumption-promoting policies in 2026, focusing on "supply-side" initiatives rather than traditional methods like vouchers, leading to structural investment opportunities [4][9] - Service consumption is expected to be a key area in 2026, with a focus on "quality supply" and "reform," particularly in tourism, department stores, tea drinks, and chain stores [4][9] - The gold and jewelry sector is projected to see profits reflect gold price fluctuations, with direct retail brands likely to benefit first as gold prices stabilize [10] - The bulk trade sector is expected to recover from its lowest point, with both valuation and profitability anticipated to rise in 2026 [10] - The report emphasizes the importance of "consumption going abroad" as a long-term investment direction, with opportunities arising from sustained performance growth rather than policy stimulus [10] - New consumption brands are expected to show a clear resurgence after the Lunar New Year, with low valuations and anticipated positive performance data [11] - State-owned enterprise reform is highlighted as a core driver for promoting consumption, particularly in scenario-based consumption areas like tourism and retail [12] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Outlook - The report predicts numerous consumption policies aimed at encouraging new business models, leading to rich structural investment opportunities in the consumer sector [4][9] - Service consumption will focus on quality supply and reforms, with recommendations for specific companies in tourism and retail sectors [4][9] 2. Market Review - The report notes that from January 26 to February 1, the retail index rose by 2.16%, while the overall market indices showed varied performance [13][14] - Year-to-date performance indicates a 4.92% increase in the retail index, reflecting positive market sentiment [16] 3. Company Valuation Table - The report includes a detailed valuation table for various companies, highlighting their market capitalization, closing prices, and projected earnings for 2024 to 2026, with specific buy and hold recommendations [18][19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The retail sector is expected to show varied performance in Q4 2025, with significant growth in certain segments like gold and jewelry, while others like supermarkets and department stores are projected to decline [1][2][4] - The report highlights the importance of the upcoming Spring Festival season, suggesting that sectors with performance elasticity, such as duty-free shops and certain tourist attractions, should be closely monitored [9] - The report emphasizes the potential of AI applications in enhancing e-commerce marketing, indicating a shift towards new retail strategies [9] Summary by Relevant Sections Retail Sector Outlook - Gold and Jewelry: - Lao Feng Xiang: Expected net profit growth of -15% to 5% in Q4 2025 - Zhou Da Sheng: Expected net profit growth of 15% to 30% in Q4 2025 - Chao Hong Ji: Forecasted net profit of 1.2 to 2.2 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 125% to 175% - Cai Bai Co.: Expected net profit growth of 150% to 254% in Q4 2025 - Yu Garden Co.: Forecasted loss of 4.312 billion in Q4 2025, compared to a loss of 1.03 billion in the same period last year [1] - Trendy Toys: - Miniso: Expected revenue growth of 25% to 30% in Q4 2025, with adjusted net profit growth of 10% to 20% [1] Supermarkets and Department Stores - Chongqing Department Store: Expected net profit of 1.021 billion, a decline of 22.4% year-on-year, with a projected drop of 92.5% in Q4 2025 - Wangfujing: Expected net profit loss of 0.45 to 0.23 billion, with a growth rate of -6.6% to 7.3% in Q4 2025 - Yonghui Supermarket: Expected loss of 2.14 billion, with a net profit growth rate of -3.1% in Q4 2025 - Home Home Joy: Expected net profit of 198 to 228 million, with a growth rate of 50.1% to 72.8% in Q4 2025 [2] Cross-Border and E-commerce - Small Commodity City: Expected net profit growth of 5% to 15% in Q4 2025 - Anker Innovation: Expected net profit growth of 10% to 20% in Q4 2025 - Su Mei Da: Expected net profit of 1.355 billion, with a growth rate of 70.8% in Q4 2025 [3] Social Services Sector Outlook - Duty-Free: China Duty-Free Group: Expected net profit growth of 29% to 173% in Q4 2025 - Tourism: - Songcheng Performance: Expected net profit growth of -204% to 294% in Q4 2025 - Jiuhua Tourism: Expected net profit growth of 0% to 15% in Q4 2025 [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors with performance elasticity during the Spring Festival, including duty-free, certain tourist attractions, and gold and jewelry [9] - For 2026, the report suggests looking at service consumption and product consumption, particularly in duty-free and travel chains, as well as undervalued segments with improving fundamentals [9]

证券研究报告 2月十大金股推荐 1 ※ 核心观点 我们认为当前仍处于市场流动性偏宽的环境中，叠加高频景气跟踪与上市公司业绩预告均显示基本面有结构性亮点， 因此继续看好权益市场延续震荡向上趋势。方向上，建议重点关注：一是内外需共振景气向上、成长预期较好的科技 制造板块（AI/半导体/存储/风电等）；二是受益于产品涨价预期的周期板块（有色金属/化工等）；三是业绩有望筑 底改善的行业（建材/免税等）；四是部分绩优红利资产（保险等）。 资料来源：Wind，平安证券研究所 备注：本篇报告数据统计截至2026/1/29 平安证券研究所 2026年1月30日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 2 证券代码 证券名称 申万一级行业 总市值 PE PB 推荐逻辑 （亿元人民币） (TTM) (MRQ) 300223.SZ 北京君正 电子 662 208.6 5.3 存储周期上行，L3智能驾驶催化汽车电子 603005.SH 晶方科技 电子 201 58.9 4.4 WLCSP先进封装领先企业，受益车规CIS需求扩张 688041.SH 海光信息 电子 6,073 256.6 27.7 国产算力领先企业，业绩持续增长可期 688615. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [5] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on sub-sectors with performance elasticity during the upcoming Spring Festival peak season, including duty-free, certain scenic spots, supermarkets, and gold jewelry [9] - It suggests that the recent fundamentals of duty-free and travel chains have improved, warranting ongoing observation and validation [9] - For 2026, the report recommends focusing on service consumption and product consumption, particularly in the duty-free and travel chain sectors, as well as the gold jewelry sector and Miniso, which have high valuation attractiveness [9] Summary by Relevant Sections Retail Sector Outlook for Q4 2025 - Gold Jewelry: - Lao Feng Xiang: Expected net profit growth of -15% to 5% - Zhou Da Sheng: Expected net profit growth of 15% to 30% - Chao Hong Ji: Forecasted net profit of 436 million to 533 million, a year-on-year increase of 125% to 175% - Cai Bai Co.: Expected net profit of 1.06 billion to 1.23 billion, corresponding to a growth of 150% to 254% - Yu Garden Co.: Forecasted loss of 4.312 billion, primarily due to asset impairment provisions [1] - Trendy Toys: - Miniso: Expected revenue growth of 25% to 30%, with adjusted operating profit and net profit growth of 10% to 20% [1] Supermarket and Department Store Outlook for Q4 2025 - Chongqing Department Store: Expected net profit of 1.021 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 22.4% - Wangfujing: Expected net profit of -45 million to -23 million, with a growth rate of -6.6% to 7.3% - Yonghui Supermarket: Expected loss of 2.14 billion, with a growth rate of -3.1% - Jiajiayue: Expected net profit of 198 million to 228 million, growth of 50.1% to 72.8% - Hongqi Chain: Expected net profit growth of -10% to 0% [2] Cross-Border and E-commerce Outlook for Q4 2025 - Small Commodity City: Expected net profit growth of 5% to 15% - Anker Innovation: Expected net profit growth of 10% to 20% - Saiwei Times: Expected net profit of 90 million to 130 million - Huakai Yibai: Expected net profit of 80 million to 110 million, driven by improved operational efficiency [3] Social Services Sector Outlook for Q4 2025 - Duty-Free: China Duty-Free Group: Expected net profit growth of 29% to 173% - Tourism: - Songcheng Performance: Expected net profit growth of -204% to 294% - Tianmu Lake: Expected net profit growth of -10% to 5% [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Small Commodity City, China Duty-Free, Huazhu Group, Shoulu Hotel, Jinjiang Hotel, Chao Hong Ji, Jiuhua Tourism, Ruoyu Chen, Qingmu Technology, and Miniso, while also keeping an eye on other companies with potential [10]

机构：信达国际 研究员：陈乐怡 第三季收入跌幅收窄，第四季旅遊旺季收入料重拾動能公司首三季收入為398.62 億元人民幣，按年跌 7.3%，純利為30.52億元人民幣，按年跌22.1%，單計第三季收入117.11 億元人民幣，按年微跌0.4%，跌 幅較上半年的10%收窄。海南離島免稅7 至9 月銷售額合計54.02 億元人民幣，按年跌2.6%，按年降幅較 4 至6 月收窄1.6 個百分點，其中9 月海南離島免稅月度銷售額按年增長3.4%，在同期低基數下錄得18 個月以來首次增長 ，公司第三季收入表現優於海南全島。海南旅遊旺季推動下，10 月至11 月離島免稅 銷售均錄雙位數按年增長，新增城市市內免稅店下半年集中開業，加上免稅政策利好，第四季收入料重 拾增長。 海南封關首月數據強勁，春節假期數據料成潛化劑海南自由貿易港自2025 年12 月18 日正式啟動全島封 關運作，免稅優惠對象擴大至所有自海南島離境的旅客，早期「離島免稅」主要面向從海南飛往內地其 他地區的旅客，重點是境內旅客，最新安排則可覆蓋國內外旅客。而每名海南居民在一年內有離島紀 錄，不限次數購買離島免稅商品，額度10 萬元人民幣，變相代購重臨，消費 ...

证券之星消息，1月30日旅游零售板块较上一交易日下跌3.17%，中国中免领跌。当日上证指数报收于 4117.95，下跌0.96%。深证成指报收于14205.89，下跌0.66%。旅游零售板块个股涨跌见下表： 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成投资建议。 | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601888 | 中国中免 | | 89.37 | -3.17% | | 46.44万 | | 41.82亿 | 从资金流向上来看，当日旅游零售板块主力资金净流出5.66亿元，游资资金净流入2.47亿元，散户资金净 流入3.2亿元。旅游零售板块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 名称 主力净流入 (元) 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) 游资净占比 散户净占比 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 6 ...

個股推介 中國中免(1880.HK) 2026 年 1 月 30 日星期五 第三季收入跌幅收窄，第四季旅遊旺季收入料重拾動能 公司首三季收入為 398.62 億元人民幣，按年跌 7.3%，純利為 30.52 億元人民幣，按年跌 22.1%，單計第三季收入 117.11 億元人民幣，按 年微跌 0.4%，跌幅較上半年的 10%收窄。海南離島免稅 7 至 9 月銷 售額合計 54.02 億元人民幣，按年跌 2.6%，按年降幅較 4 至 6 月收窄 1.6 個百分點，其中 9 月海南離島免稅月度銷售額按年增長 3.4%，在 同期低基數下錄得 18 個月以來首次增長 ，公司第三季收入表現優於 海南全島。海南旅遊旺季推動下，10 月至 11 月離島免稅銷售均錄雙 位數按年增長，新增城市市內免稅店下半年集中開業，加上免稅政策 利好，第四季收入料重拾增長。 海南封關首月數據強勁，春節假期數據料成潛化劑 海南自由貿易港自 2025 年 12 月 18 日正式啟動全島封關運作，免稅 優惠對象擴大至所有自海南島離境的旅客，早期「離島免稅」主要面 向從海南飛往內地其他地區的旅客，重點是境內旅客，最新安排則可 覆蓋國內外旅客。而每名 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the consumer discretionary sector [7] Core Insights - The "Work Plan" issued by the State Council aims to stimulate domestic demand by fostering new growth points in service consumption, focusing on six key areas including transportation, housekeeping, and online audiovisual services, as well as three potential areas: performance services, sports events, and emotional experience services [1][2] - The report emphasizes that service consumption is a natural direction for consumption upgrading and the pursuit of a better life by residents, with significant long-term potential in China as service consumption typically increases with GDP growth [1] - The report suggests that the recovery of service consumption will help shift traffic from online to offline, benefiting related industries such as dining, tourism, and retail [1] Summary by Sections Service Consumption Growth - The "Work Plan" includes twelve specific measures to enhance service consumption, with a focus on optimizing supply and encouraging innovative consumption scenarios [2][4] - The report highlights the importance of developing high-quality supply and encourages proactive exploration of new business models in the service sector [4] Transportation and Tourism Integration - The "Work Plan" proposes initiatives such as developing senior tourism trains and enhancing the quality of cruise and night tour services, which are expected to benefit related sectors [3] - The report notes that the integration of transportation and tourism, along with the emergence of quality tourism supply, will lead to an upturn in specific tourism segments [3] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the consumer sector, including: - Travel Chain: Recommended companies include Atour, Huazhu Group, Shoulv Hotel, and China Duty Free [5] - Ready-to-Drink Beverages and Dining: Recommended companies include Guming, Yum China, Yihai International, Dashihua, Chabaidao, Xiaocaiyuan, and Haidilao [5] - Emotional Consumption: Recommended companies include Pop Mart, Laopu Gold, Blukoo, Miniso, Shangmei, Maogeping, and Juzibio [5] - Scenario Chains: Recommended companies include Guoquan, Wancheng Group, Wanwu Xingsheng, and Shengbeila [5] - Sports Apparel: Recommended companies include Anta, Amer Sports, and Li Ning [5] Key Company Insights - Pop Mart has initiated share buybacks, reflecting confidence in growth prospects, and is expected to accelerate the diversification of its IP structure [12] - Laopu Gold is anticipated to perform well during the upcoming Spring Festival, with expectations of exceeding sales forecasts due to ongoing brand expansion and strong market demand [12] - Miniso's recent performance has exceeded guidance, driven by a successful large store strategy and improved operational efficiency [12]