Group 1 - The establishment of Hainan Free Trade Port is a significant strategic decision by the Chinese government to respond to global trade changes and enhance domestic consumption, especially in light of the U.S. imposing "reciprocal tariffs" [2][35] - The year 2025 marks a critical milestone for Hainan Free Trade Port as it aims to achieve "closure," allowing for a unique operational model where goods can flow freely between Hainan and international markets while being regulated for entry into mainland China [2][14] - Hainan is expected to become a "tax haven" due to four key policies: 1) Exemption from tariffs for products with over 30% value-added processing; 2) Zero tariffs on non-negative list goods post-closure; 3) A reduced corporate income tax rate of 15% for qualifying businesses; 4) A progressive personal income tax structure capped at 15% [2][28][30] Group 2 - Hainan is positioned as a dual circulation hub, leveraging its geographical advantages to attract global capital, particularly from foreign enterprises seeking access to the Chinese market [12][31] - The tourism sector is being developed to attract international visitors and promote high-end consumption, with initiatives like duty-free shopping and international medical tourism [41][46] - The report highlights the rapid growth of new enterprises in Hainan, with over 150,000 new companies established annually from 2020 to 2024, indicating a robust investment environment [33]

Group 1 - The recent policy changes regarding the departure tax refund system have positively impacted the stock prices of related companies, with notable increases in A-share and Hong Kong-listed companies [2][3] - The new policy, issued by multiple government departments, aims to enhance the departure tax refund experience by lowering the minimum refund threshold and increasing the cash refund limit, among other measures [4][5] - The policy changes are expected to significantly boost inbound tourism and consumption, with a projected 1.3 billion inbound tourists in 2024, reflecting a growth of over 60% year-on-year [5][6] Group 2 - Companies involved in the departure tax refund business have diversified, including direct operators like China Duty Free Group and Wangfujing, as well as logistics and technology providers like Lakala and SF Express [6] - The optimization of the departure tax refund policy is anticipated to drive growth in various sectors, including retail, tourism, and dining, benefiting companies that cater to inbound tourists [6][7] - Research indicates that the optimized departure tax refund policy will favor the retail sector, particularly department stores, and related industries such as hotels and restaurants, enhancing the overall consumer market [7]

Group 1 - The tourism market is experiencing a significant increase in activity as the "May Day" holiday approaches, with online hotel and flight searches rising sharply, indicating a peak in bookings [1][2] - Domestic travel bookings for the "May Day" holiday have more than doubled compared to the same period last year, with self-driving tours, free travel, and group tours showing particularly high growth [1] - The "May Day" holiday is characterized by three main trends: rapid growth in long-distance travel, a two-way increase in cross-border travel, and a resurgence in county-level tourism, contributing to structural growth in the tourism market [1][3] Group 2 - Ctrip's report indicates that the holiday travel consumption is marked by explosive growth in long-distance travel and a significant increase in inbound travel orders, which surged by 173% year-on-year [1][3] - The proportion of cross-city accommodation orders has exceeded 80%, with deep travel users planning to stay for two days or more expected to reach 20% [3] - Popular domestic destinations include traditional cities like Beijing and Shanghai, while emerging destinations such as Taiyuan and Yining are also seeing significant growth in hotel bookings [3][4] Group 3 - The overall transaction volume (GMV) for travel services has increased by approximately 65% year-on-year, with product diversity growing by 55.25% [3] - The "May Day" holiday is expected to reach a historical peak in travel heat, with the travel peak anticipated to occur in the first two days of the holiday [4] - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments have announced policies to optimize the outbound tax refund system, which is expected to boost inbound tourism and shopping [4][5] Group 4 - Companies like Ctrip are expected to benefit from the growing demand for travel, as high-level consumption continues to expand [6] - Huazhu Group's adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2024 is projected to grow by 10%, with an upward revision of EBITDA forecasts for 2025-2026 [6] - China Duty Free Group is expected to see revenue growth driven by the recovery of port traffic and operational optimizations, with new store policies creating growth opportunities [6]

We are also watchful about Hainan's free-trade-zone policy and impact to duty-free operators. The Hainan government has not yet released any details, but we expect it to do so later this year as Central government targets opening the FTZ in 2025. Recap of March-2025 Hainan offline DF trends: Avg daily sales Rmb94mn (-5% YoY vs -13% YoY in 2M25); Daily shoppers 17.7K (-26% YoY) and spending per shopper Rmb6.5K (+28%). The ASP growth could be helped by more electronic product sales which might not translate t ...

证券研究报告 | 年报点评报告 gszqdatemark 2025 04 24 年 月 日 中国中免（601888.SH） 口岸免税受益政策优化，期待市内免税增量 事件：1）3 月 28 日，公司发布 2024 年年报，2024 年实现营业收入 564.74 亿元/同比 -16.38%，归母净利润 42.67 亿元/同比-36.44%，扣非归母净利润 41.44 亿元/同比- 37.7%；其中 2024Q4 实现营业收入 134.53 亿元/同比-19.46%，归母净利润 3.48 亿 元/同比-76.93%，扣非归母净利润 2.71 亿元/同比-81.42%。2）发布 2024 年度利润 分配方案，拟每 10 股派发现金红利 10.5 元，共计 21.7 亿元，占据归母净利润 50.91%。 消费意愿阶段趋缓，离岛免税显著承压，口岸免税利润有所优化。2024 年海南接待游 客总人数 9721 万人次/同比+8.0%，全年离岛免税购物金额 309.4 亿元/同比-29.3%。 其中实际购物人次 568.3 万人次/同比-15.9%，据计算人均消费为 5444 元/同比- 15.9%。2024 全年公司实现营业 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from optimized duty-free policies at ports and anticipates growth in city duty-free sales [1][4] - The company's revenue for 2024 is reported at 56.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.38%, with a net profit of 4.27 billion yuan, down 36.44% [1] - The company is focusing on enhancing its online, store, and supply chain capabilities, which are expected to contribute to long-term growth [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 56.47 billion yuan, with a significant decline in net profit to 4.27 billion yuan [1] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 13.45 billion yuan, down 19.46% year-on-year, and a net profit of 348 million yuan, down 76.93% [1] - The gross margin for Q4 2024 decreased by 3.50 percentage points to 28.54%, attributed to declining sales and increased promotional efforts [2] Market Dynamics - The company has seen a steady increase in its share of the duty-free market in Hainan, with a 2 percentage point increase in 2024 [3] - The company successfully won bids for duty-free operations at 10 airports, benefiting from the expansion of visa-free policies and increased international flight volumes [3] - The city duty-free stores are expected to contribute to growth, with new store openings planned in major cities [3] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 58.03 billion yuan, 63.55 billion yuan, and 68.73 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to reach 4.50 billion yuan, 4.93 billion yuan, and 5.28 billion yuan [4][5] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 2.18 yuan, 2.38 yuan, and 2.55 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5]

| 排名 | 板块名称 | 主力资金净流入（亿元） | 主力资金净流入率(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 机械设备 | 32.58 | 4.88 | | 2 | 交运设备 | 30.48 | 6.42 | | 3 | 通用设备 | 18.83 | 5.64 | | ব | 家用电器 | 4.98 | 4.71 | | 5 | 工业务属 | 3.68 | 3.16 | | 排名 | 板块名称 | 主力资金净流出（亿元） | 主力资金净流出率(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 商贸零售 | -21.94 | -8.74 | | 2 | 未曾体 | -17.52 | -5.78 | | 3 | 非银金融 | -14.15 | -7.40 | | ব | 交通运输 | -14.10 | -6.90 | | 5 | 农林牧渔 | -13.13 | -9.80 | 主力资金监控：中油资本净卖出超8亿 智通财经4月23日电，智通财经星矿数据显示，今日早盘主力资金净流入机械设备、交运设备、通用设备等板块，净流出商贸零售、 半导体、非银金融等板块，其中机 ...

截至4月22日收盘，自由贸易港概念上涨3.05%，位居概念板块涨幅第5，板块内，33股上涨，东方创 业、长江投资、嘉诚国际等涨停，北部湾港、外高桥、中创物流等涨幅居前，分别上涨6.31%、 6.24%、5.47%。跌幅居前的有中国中免、中远海科等，分别下跌0.51%、0.47%。 今日涨跌幅居前的概念板块 | 概念 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 概念 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 供销社 | 3.93 | 中国AI 50 | -2.09 | | 跨境支付(CIPS) | 3.65 | 人形机器人 | -1.59 | | 草甘膦 | 3.57 | 英伟达概念 | -1.48 | | 中韩自贸区 | 3.16 | 同花顺果指数 | -1.38 | | 自由贸易港 | 3.05 | 算力租赁 | -1.32 | | 统一大市场 | 2.74 | 液冷服务器 | -1.28 | | 数字货币 | 2.63 | 华为手机 | -1.22 | | 转基因 | 2.62 | AI手机 | -1.21 | | 信托概念 | 2.33 | MLOps概念 | -1.21 | | ...

Group 1 - The core index, the China Securities Hong Kong-Shenzhen New Generation Consumption Theme Index, opened at 1719.01 points and has seen a decline of 16.03% over the past month, an increase of 9.98% over the past three months, and a year-to-date increase of 5.99% [1][2] - The index consists of 50 listed companies from the food and beverage, apparel, leisure, and other consumer goods and services sectors that meet the characteristics of new generation consumption, reflecting the overall performance of these companies in the mainland and Hong Kong markets [1][2] - The index's top ten holdings include Xiaomi Group-W (13.43%), Tencent Holdings (10.83%), Meituan-W (7.87%), Kuaishou-W (7.48%), Pop Mart (6.56%), Yum China (6.43%), Anta Sports (6.29%), China Duty Free Group (3.33%), GoerTek (2.64%), and Shenzhou International (2.23%) [1][2] Group 2 - The market segment distribution of the index shows that the Hong Kong Stock Exchange accounts for 71.66%, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange for 18.41%, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange for 9.93% [1][2] - In terms of industry composition, discretionary consumption accounts for 41.55%, communication services for 33.35%, information technology for 19.59%, staple consumption for 3.85%, and healthcare for 1.64% [2] - The index samples are adjusted semi-annually, with adjustments implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December each year, and special adjustments may occur under certain circumstances [2]

• 海南省政府通过举办演唱会和发放消费券等措施，刺激文旅产业发展，3 月份免税销售额降幅收窄至-5%，较一二月份的-13%有所改善，表明政府措 施对消费有积极影响。 • 今年赴岛游客数量与去年同期基本持平，但购买人次同比下降约 20%，导 致渗透率下降，不过客单价从 1 月的 6,700 元增长至 3 月的 6,500 元，表 明消费者购买力稳定，精品供给优化和消费券拉动是主要因素。 • 自贸港封关政策明确"一线放开，二线管住"，主要针对原材料和设备， 利好 ToB 企业，免税商仍享受现有税收减免，消除了市场对政策不确定性 的担忧，2026 年前不会开放岛民免税。 • 今年 1-3 月离岛免税连带率约为 6 件，与去年同期持平，但件均价显著提 高，约为 1,000 元，高于去年同期的 800-1,000 元，精品占比增加是主要 驱动因素。 • 4 月份离岛免税终端出货价较去年 7 月提升约 10%，综合政府补贴、文旅引 流和免税商折扣等因素，离岛免税销售额趋于稳定。 • 美国来源商品加关税对大集团影响较小，但依赖美国工厂的品牌如倩碧和 修丽可在天猫旗舰店出现涨价和下架现象，美产商品逐步退出中国市场趋 势明显， ...