Core Viewpoint - The introduction of the "immediate purchase and refund" policy is expected to enhance the convenience for foreign tourists and stimulate local consumption, particularly benefiting companies like China Duty Free Group, which holds an 81.74% market share in the domestic duty-free market [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Impact - The "immediate purchase and refund" policy allows foreign tourists to claim VAT refunds on purchases made in designated stores, enhancing the shopping experience and potentially increasing the willingness to make repeat purchases [2]. - The policy is being expanded from pilot regions to nationwide implementation, which is anticipated to boost consumption among inbound tourists [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The duty-free channel is expected to maintain its price advantage due to the exemption from import tariffs, consumption taxes, and VAT, making it an attractive option for consumers [3]. - The sales figures for offshore duty-free shopping in Hainan showed a decline in early 2025, but there are signs of stabilization in per capita spending, indicating a potential recovery in the market [3]. Group 3: Company Outlook - The company maintains its earnings forecast, projecting EPS of 2.26, 2.56, and 2.91 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, and has raised its target prices for A and H shares to 79.1 yuan and 73.08 HKD, reflecting confidence in the company's leading position and growth potential in the duty-free sector [4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1][30][35] Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of the escalating US-China "tariff war" on the market, with China responding with equivalent measures [3][6] - Recent policies aimed at promoting consumption, such as the "Special Action Plan for Promoting Healthy Consumption," are expected to boost domestic demand [7][8] - The retail sector is actively assisting foreign trade enterprises in expanding domestic sales channels, with major players like JD.com and Alibaba launching initiatives to support this transition [11][13] Summary by Sections Macro and Industry Dynamics - The US has increased tariffs on Chinese imports, with rates reaching up to 145% [6] - China has implemented measures to promote healthy consumption and enhance the shopping experience for foreign tourists [7][8] - The domestic travel market is showing growth, with significant increases in tourist numbers during the Qingming holiday [9][10] Company Dynamics - Jinbo Biotech has received approval for a new collagen product, marking a significant innovation in the medical aesthetics field [16] - Proya has announced the recruitment of several high-profile R&D experts to enhance its global research capabilities [16] - Xiaogoods City reported a revenue increase of 17.93% year-on-year for Q1 2025, indicating strong performance in essential consumer goods [17] Investment Recommendations - The report notes that the social service sector has shown resilience, with key companies trading at a PE ratio of 20-30 times for 2025, indicating stable operations [30] - The report emphasizes the strong performance of domestic retail companies amidst the tariff disruptions, with notable stock price increases for companies like China Duty Free and Yonghui Supermarket [28][30]

近期，随着年报的持续披露，叠加市场的震荡调整，被券商分析师调整评级的股票数量出现一个小高峰。 4月以来，十余只个股评级获券商上调，覆盖消费、计算机、自主可控等多个领域。与此同时，包括贵州茅 台、中国中免等多只龙头股遭券商下调评级。 从周末各券商推出的最新策略观点来看，经历近期市场调整后，多数券商对于A股后市保持乐观，认为A股短 期有望走出独立行情。 本月以来12股评级获券商上调 东方财富Choice数据显示，4月以来，券商上调了12只股票的评级，包括福斯特、华海诚科、华大九天、一致 魔芋、航天电器、柳工、鸿远电子、华电国际、金盘科技、云南白药、益生股份、民士达等。 在消费领域，中国银河证券近日上调云南白药评级。云南白药2024年净利47.49亿元，同比增长16%。中国银 河证券认为，该公司是国内中药龙头企业，短中长期布局清晰，战略定力强，近年来维持高分红比例，上调 为"推荐"评级。 江海证券近期上调北交所股票一致魔芋的评级至"增持"。江海证券称，公司魔芋粉、魔芋食品和魔芋美妆三大 业务板块均实现两位数以上的增长，其中受益于下游魔芋休闲食品的放量，公司魔芋食品去年增长63.22%。 考虑到下游魔芋食品高增长有望 ...

4月8日，国家税务总局发布《关于推广境外旅客购物离境退税"即买即退"服务措施的公告》，明确 离境退税"即买即退"服务措施在全国推广。 2025.04. 11 作者 | 第一财经 安卓 本文字数：1114，阅读时长大约2分钟 导读 ： 提振消费组合拳。 《公告》指出，境外旅客在"即买即退"商店购买退税物品时，签订协议书并办理信用卡预授权后，即 可在该商店现场申领与退税款等额的人民币款项，在离境时经海关验核通过、按照协议书约定在承诺 期限内于指定口岸离境且符合离境退税政策规定的，退税代理机构为其解除信用卡预授权，办结离境 退税业务。 近日，在互动平台上，包括王府井、中国中免在内的多家零售百货、免税店以及部分食品饮料白酒等 上市公司被投资者问及"即买即退"政策影响。 其中，广百股份回应，公司旗下广百百货北京路店、天河中怡店、广州友谊环东店、正佳店、时代 店、国金店为首批离境退税"即买即退"商店，为入境消费客户带来更舒适、便捷的购物体验。 另外，对于即将召开的广交会，广百股份亦称，为更好的接待外宾及提升服务质量，公司提供多语种 服务，安排了专属客服导购，更有城市资讯导览、外宾特惠尊享、广式礼遇相赠等贴心服务。 大东方 ...

Group 1 - China Duty Free Group Co., Ltd. (China Duty Free) experienced a significant stock decline of 3.22% on April 11 [1] - The company was established in 2008 and is primarily engaged in business services, with a registered capital of approximately 20.69 billion RMB [1] - In the fourth quarter of the previous year, Invesco Great Wall Fund's Invesco Great Wall Emerging Growth Mixed A reduced its holdings in China Duty Free [1] Group 2 - The fund manager of Invesco Great Wall Emerging Growth Mixed A is Liu Yanchun, who has a Master's degree in Management and extensive experience in the investment sector [2][3] - Liu Yanchun has been with Invesco Great Wall Fund Management Co., Ltd. since January 2015 and currently serves as the assistant general manager and head of the research department [2][3] - The fund has a year-to-date return of 1.09%, ranking 1158 out of 4559 in its category [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with an upward adjustment [11]. Core Viewpoints - The company focuses on domestic demand and innovation, aiming to expand its business footprint through strategic partnerships and market development, particularly in the "Belt and Road" regions and Southeast Asia [2][9]. - The company has established itself as a leader in China's duty-free industry, leveraging its core competitive advantages in channels, scale, operational management, and brand recognition [2][9]. - The report forecasts steady revenue growth, with expected net profits of 4.296 billion, 4.383 billion, and 4.524 billion yuan for 2025-2027, corresponding to current price-to-earnings ratios of 33.81, 33.14, and 32.11 times, respectively [2][52]. Policy Support and Domestic Focus - In 2023, various government policies aimed at boosting consumption have been introduced, emphasizing the importance of tourism consumption, particularly in the duty-free shopping sector [6][15]. - The government has outlined plans to expand cultural and tourism consumption, improve duty-free policies, and establish more duty-free shops [6][15]. Market Recovery and Growth - The global duty-free and travel retail market is projected to achieve a sales volume of 73.73 billion USD (approximately 530 billion yuan) in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.5% [7][19]. - The recovery in global travel and tourism is expected to drive growth in the duty-free sector, with significant increases in sales from airport and onboard channels [7][16]. - The report highlights that the duty-free industry is poised for new growth opportunities, benefiting from the positive outlook of the tourism sector and consumer preferences [8][36]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenues of 56.474 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.38%, and a net profit of 4.267 billion yuan, down 36.44% [52]. - The report indicates a significant decline in revenue from key regions, with Hainan's revenue dropping by 27.13% and Shanghai's by 10.02% [52]. - The company's comprehensive gross margin slightly increased to 32.03%, while the sales expense ratio rose to 16.05%, impacting net profit margins [55]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a stabilization and potential recovery in Hainan's duty-free sales, with growth expected in airport and port sales as outbound travel increases [52]. - The company is expected to leverage its core channel positions and procurement advantages to navigate through the current demand downturn and return to a growth trajectory [52].

Core Insights - On April 10, China Duty Free Group (中国中免) made its first appearance on the Hong Kong Stock Connect active trading list in a month, with a trading volume of 1.655 billion HKD and a net sell of 0.046 billion HKD, closing down 1.32% [1][2] Trading Activity Summary - The total trading volume of active stocks on the Hong Kong Stock Connect on April 10 was 85.510 billion HKD, accounting for 48.89% of the day's total trading amount, with a net sell of 17.382 billion HKD [1] - The top three stocks by trading volume were: - Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (盈富基金) with 15.262 billion HKD - Tencent Holdings (腾讯控股) with 14.538 billion HKD - Alibaba Group (阿里巴巴-W) with 14.021 billion HKD [1] - The most frequently listed stocks in the past month were Alibaba Group and Tencent Holdings, each appearing 22 times, indicating strong interest from Hong Kong Stock Connect investors [1] Individual Stock Performance - China Duty Free Group's trading details on April 10: - Trading Amount: 1.655 billion HKD - Net Buy Amount: -0.046 billion HKD - Latest Closing Price: 55.950 HKD - Daily Change: -1.32% [2]

● 公司A股股票于2025年4月8日至2025年4月10日连续3个交易日内日收盘价 格涨幅偏离值累计超过20%，根据《上海证券交易所交易规则》的有关规定，属于 股票交易异常波动情形。 ● 经公司自查并向公司控股股东书面发函查证，截至本公告披露日，不存在应 披露而未披露的重大事项和风险事项。 ● 公司敬请广大投资者注意二级市场交易风险，理性决策，审慎投资。 一、股票交易异常波动的具体情况 中国旅游集团中免股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）A股股票交易于2025年4 月8日至2025年4月10日连续3个交易日内日收盘价格涨幅偏离值累计超过20%。根据 《上海证券交易所交易规则》的有关规定，属于股票交易异常波动情形。 二、公司关注并核实的相关情况 证券代码：601888 证券简称：中国中免 公告编号：临2025-012 中国旅游集团中免股份有限公司 股票交易异常波动公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 针对公司A股股票交易异常波动情况，公司对有关事项进行了自查，并书面征 询了公司控股股东中国旅游集团有限 ...

2、本公司未于 2025年 4 月 8 日至 2025年 4 月 10 日期间内买卖 你公司股票。 特此函复。 你公司发来的《关于中国旅游集团中免股份有限公司股票交易异 常波动征询函》已收阅,经认真核查,现就征询的有关事项回复如下: 1、本公司作为你公司控股股东,截至目前,不存在涉及你公司 的应披露而未披露的重大信息,包括但不限于重大资产重组、股份发 行、重大交易类事项、债务重组、业务重组、股份回购、股权激励、 破产重整、重大业务合作、引进战略投资者等重大事项。 中国旅游集团有限公司 关于中国旅游集团中免股份有限公司 股票交易异常波动的回函 中国旅游集团中免股份有限公司: ...

Core Viewpoint - China Duty Free Group (601888) announced that its A-share stock experienced an abnormal trading fluctuation, with a cumulative closing price increase exceeding 20% over three consecutive trading days from April 8 to April 10, 2025 [1] Company Summary - The company conducted a self-examination and confirmed, after consulting with its controlling shareholder, that there are no undisclosed significant matters or risk issues [1] - Daily operational activities of the company are normal and orderly, with no significant changes reported in its main business operations and fundamentals [1] - Investors are advised to be cautious of secondary market trading risks and to make rational investment decisions [1]