Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal sector is entering a "Golden Era 2.0," with core value assets expected to rise again. The current weak domestic economy and external pressures, such as tariffs from the Trump administration, along with a downward trend in interest rates, make coal a stable dividend investment. Insurance funds have begun new allocations in coal and other dividend sectors, which are perceived as low-risk due to state-owned backgrounds [4][12]. - The coal market is expected to stabilize and rebound as supply-demand fundamentals improve. Both thermal and coking coal prices are at low levels, with potential for upward movement following the implementation of macroeconomic policies and the upcoming construction season in 2025 [4][12]. - The coal sector is likely to see a renewed investment focus due to supportive macro policies and capital market initiatives. High dividend payouts have become a trend, with several listed coal companies announcing mid-term dividend plans, indicating a positive shift in market sentiment [4][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Logic - The coal sector is viewed as a stable dividend investment due to weak domestic economic performance and favorable macroeconomic conditions. Insurance funds are starting new allocations in coal, which is seen as a low-risk investment [4][12]. 2. Key Indicators Overview - The coal sector experienced a slight decline of 0.5% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.38 percentage points. The sector's PE ratio is 11.81, and the PB ratio is 1.18, ranking low among all A-share industries [7][9]. 3. Thermal Coal Industry Chain - As of June 6, the Qinhuangdao port price for Q5500 thermal coal is 609 CNY/ton, a slight decrease of 0.33%. The operating rate of coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia is 81.3%, with a minor decline [3][15]. - The inventory at ports in the Bohai Rim has decreased to 29.31 million tons, down 4.1% from the previous week, indicating a continued trend of inventory reduction [3][15]. 4. Coking Coal Industry Chain - The price for main coking coal at the Jing Tang port remains stable at 1270 CNY/ton. However, the market is facing potential supply disruptions due to political changes in Mongolia and domestic cost pressures [3][16]. - The average daily iron output remains above 240 CNY/ton, indicating resilient demand for coking coal despite pressures from the steel industry [3][16]. 5. Company Announcements - Several coal companies have announced plans for stock buybacks and increased shareholder holdings, signaling confidence in the sector's valuation and potential for price appreciation [4][12]. 6. Selected Coal Stocks - Key stocks to watch include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy for dividend potential; Pingmei Shenma and Huabei Mining for cyclical logic; and Guanghui Energy and Xinjie Energy for growth potential [4][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several coal companies, including Jin控煤业, 陕西煤业, 华阳股份, 中国神华, 中煤能源, 山煤国际, 新集能源, 兖矿能源, and 淮北矿业, indicating a positive outlook for these stocks [3][11]. Core Views - The report highlights that the continuous destocking at ports and the upcoming peak summer demand are expected to drive a rebound in thermal coal prices. The demand side is seeing an increase in daily consumption by power plants as temperatures rise, while supply is tightening due to reduced production and stricter safety inspections [1][7]. - The report suggests that after verifying the bottom support for coal prices, the stable high dividend yield of coal stocks enhances their investment value, leading to a potential valuation uplift for the sector [1][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with stable performance and high cash flow growth, recommending specific stocks based on their financial health and market position [11]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The report notes that the coal market is experiencing mixed price movements, with low-calorie coal prices slightly increasing due to tight supply. The overall market remains stable, with port coal prices showing minor fluctuations [1][7]. - The report indicates that the average daily coal consumption by power plants has increased, with a week-on-week rise of 33.7 thousand tons, reflecting a growing demand for electricity [9]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report discusses the supply side, noting a significant decline in coal production due to low prices and stricter environmental checks, particularly in regions like Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia. This is expected to lead to a tighter supply situation [1][10]. - On the demand side, the report highlights that non-electric demand remains high, and the anticipated increase in thermal power generation could lead to a positive shift in coal prices [1][7]. Company Performance - The report provides earnings forecasts and valuations for key companies, with Jin控煤业 expected to have an EPS of 1.68 yuan in 2024, while 陕西煤业 is projected to have an EPS of 2.31 yuan. The report recommends these companies based on their stable earnings and growth potential [3][11]. - The report also notes that the coal sector has underperformed compared to the broader market, with a weekly decline of 0.3% for the coal sector compared to a 0.9% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [12][15]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with robust performance and cash flow, such as Jin控煤业 and 陕西煤业, as well as industry leaders like 中国神华 and 中煤能源. It also suggests looking at companies with growth in production, such as 华阳股份 and 山煤国际 [11][12].

中国中煤能源股份有限公司 2024 年度股东周年大会及 2025 年第一次 A 股类别股东会 会议资料 2025 年 6 月 中煤能源 2024 年度股东周年大会及 2025 年第一次 A 股类别股东会会议资料 目 录 | 会 | 议 须 | 知 | 1 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2024 | | 年度股东周年大会会议议程 | 2 | | 2025 | 年第一次 | A 股类别股东会会议议程 | 4 | | 2024 | | 年度股东周年大会会议议案 | | | 议案一 | 关于《公司 | 2024 年度董事会报告》的议案 | 5 | | 议案二 | 关于《公司 | 2024 年度监事会报告》的议案 | 6 | | 议案三 | 关于《公司 | 2024 年度财务报告》的议案 | 10 | | 议案四 | 关于《公司 | 2024 年度利润分配预案》的议案 | 12 | | 议案五 | | 关于提请股东大会授权董事会制定并实施 2025 年中期分红方案的议案 | 13 | | 议案六 | | 关于继续给予公司发行债务类融资工具一般性授权的议案 | 14 | | 议案七 | 关于 ...

迎接 6 月基本面拐点 [Table_Industry] 煤炭 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.06.05 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 ——煤炭行业周报 | [table_Authors] 黄涛(分析师) | 王楠瑀(研究助理) | | --- | --- | | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | | 登记编号 S0880515090001 | S0880123060041 | 本报告导读： 煤价底部企稳，预计随着全国气温的逐步攀升，再考虑到库存去化，预计煤价拐点 就在 6 月，当前就是基本面拐点。 投资要点： [投资建议： Table_Summary] 从板块推荐角度，依然推荐红利的核心中国神华、陕西煤业、 中煤能源；继续推荐兖矿能源、晋控煤业。 疆煤外运及内蒙的铁路运费再次下调，背后或反应新疆内蒙外运大规模 亏损压力。上周疆煤外运及内蒙的铁路运费再次下调，物流成本继续下 降。旺季来临时候下调运费，显示出产地，新疆内蒙外运大规模亏损压 力，运量下降倒逼铁路降价，在当前 620 元港口价格下已经刻不容缓， 侧面反映两大产地压力。我们认为 4 月全国产量 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, China Coal Energy (601898.SH), with a target price of 14.33 CNY per share based on absolute and relative valuation methods [1][4][18]. Core Views - The report anticipates that the company's net profit attributable to shareholders will be 16.15 billion, 17.97 billion, and 18.57 billion CNY for the years 2025-2027, with corresponding EPS of 1.22, 1.36, and 1.40 CNY, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of -16.41%, 11.26%, and 3.31% [1][17]. - The market perceives an oversupply in the coal industry, leading to potential price declines; however, the report argues that a balanced supply-demand scenario will maintain spot prices between 750-850 CNY/ton [2][13][54]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - China Coal Energy is a leading state-owned enterprise in the coal sector, focusing on integrated operations and clean coal utilization [22]. - The company has substantial coal reserves of 26.52 billion tons and a recoverable reserve of 13.821 billion tons, with a mining life expectancy of nearly 100 years [56]. Financial Data - The company reported a revenue of 189.4 billion CNY in 2024, a slight decrease of 1.9% from the previous year, with a net profit of 19.32 billion CNY, down 1.1% [7][27]. - The average dividend payout ratio since its listing is 30.65%, with a projected payout ratio of 32.87% for 2024 [14][17]. Industry Analysis - The report highlights a stable coal price environment, with expectations for prices to remain between 750-850 CNY/ton due to balanced supply and demand [2][54]. - The coal production capacity is nearing its limits, with expected production stabilizing around 38.5-39 billion tons from 2025 to 2027 [54]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 182.29 billion, 186.23 billion, and 187.70 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of -3.75%, 2.16%, and 0.79% respectively [17]. - The report employs a Dividend Discount Model (DDM) for valuation, suggesting a reasonable stock price of 13.68 CNY based on dividend expectations [18].

Summary of China Coal Energy Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Coal Industry - **Company**: China Coal Energy Key Points and Arguments 1. **Coking Coal Price Recovery Expectations**: The market anticipates an increase in coking coal demand due to clarified real estate policies, potentially leading to a price rebound. However, deeper analytical support for this expectation is lacking. Coking coal prices remained around 1,100 RMB/ton in Q1 and Q2 of 2025, with stability expected in Q3 and beyond [2][3][4]. 2. **Impact of New Mineral Resources Law**: The new law, effective July 1, 2025, provides a legal framework for mineral resource management, promoting orderly and legal market operations. It is expected to benefit China Coal Energy in resource and asset disposal, although the increase in environmental costs for new mines remains uncertain [2][5]. 3. **Stable Operational Performance in Q2**: For the first four months of 2025, coal production and sales remained stable. While performance is expected to be flat compared to the previous quarter, there may be year-on-year pressure due to coal price impacts, with detailed data pending [2][6]. 4. **High Coal Inventory with Decreasing Trend**: The company’s coal inventory, including production segment and port inventories, remains high but shows a clear trend of reduction [2][7]. 5. **Long-term Contract Fulfillment**: China Coal Energy maintains a long-term contract fulfillment rate above 90%, with a contract ratio of no less than 75% for 2025, in compliance with national requirements [2][8]. 6. **Coal Price Stability and Future Outlook**: Since early 2025, coal prices have been declining but stabilized around 620 RMB for 5,500 kcal spot prices by the end of May. The upcoming summer peak demand and price increases in major production areas are expected to support coal prices, leading to narrow fluctuations [4][9]. 7. **Cost Reduction and Efficiency Improvement**: The company emphasizes cost reduction and efficiency as key development strategies in response to low coal prices. This includes refined management and efficient production practices, which have contributed to positive performance in 2024 and Q1 2025 [4][11]. 8. **Profitability of Coal Chemical Projects**: All operational coal chemical projects have been profitable, even during periods of high coal prices [12]. 9. **Progress of Ongoing Projects**: Two major projects, the Libu Anthracite Mine (4 million tons/year) and the Weigou Thermal Coal Mine (2.4 million tons/year), are expected to commence production by the end of 2026 [13]. 10. **Dividend Plans Amidst Falling Coal Prices**: While the dividend ratio will not be affected, the total dividend amount may decrease due to lower current prices compared to last year. However, the company’s long-term contracts mitigate significant performance fluctuations [14]. 11. **Long-term Resource Availability**: The group has substantial coal mine resources, with a total capacity of approximately 340 million tons, indicating potential for resource injection into the listed company [20]. 12. **Future Capital Expenditure Plans**: The company plans to maintain capital expenditures around 15 billion RMB over the next three years, primarily for ongoing projects [21]. 13. **Overall Profitability Amid Price Declines**: Despite a decline in coking coal prices, the company has maintained relative stability in profitability, with coking coal prices around 1,100 RMB/ton, slightly better than the market average [22]. Additional Important Content - **Market Dynamics**: The stability of current coal prices is influenced by various factors, including increased imports and the impact of renewable energy on thermal power demand [9][16]. - **Customer Compliance**: Even in a low market, customer compliance with contracts is expected to remain stable due to national policy requirements [15]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the company's operational status, market expectations, and strategic directions within the coal industry.

Core Insights - The coal industry is experiencing significant supply contraction due to falling prices, with over 53.64% of coal companies reporting losses as of April 2025, the highest level since 2018 [1][20][22] - Electricity demand is expected to rebound with the onset of summer, as average daily power generation showed a year-on-year increase of 3.32% in mid-May 2025, despite a 14.37% decline in hydroelectric power generation [1][59] - A strong expectation for a rebound in thermal coal prices is anticipated as demand increases with rising temperatures, potentially peaking during the July-August consumption high [2][59] Supply and Demand Analysis - The coal supply has contracted significantly, with April 2025 coal production down 11.64% month-on-month, primarily due to reductions in output from regions like Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia [20][59] - The decline in coal imports, which fell by 16.4% year-on-year in April 2025, is expected to support the domestic market [24][26] - The overall supply reduction is greater than the demand decrease, indicating that coal prices are currently in an oversold state [20][21] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include industry leaders with stable performance such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, as well as growth-oriented companies like Jinkong Coal and Shanmei International [3] - The report highlights the defensive value of leading companies with low debt and high cash flow, which are expected to benefit from market confidence and potential asset injections [2][3] Price Outlook - Thermal coal prices are expected to rebound due to seasonal demand increases and supply tightening, with a peak anticipated during the summer consumption high [2][59] - Coking coal prices are projected to stabilize, supported by a bottoming out of thermal coal prices and potential increases in export demand due to easing trade tensions [2][60]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.14% as of 10:28 AM, with a trading volume of 470.90 billion shares and a turnover of 564.58 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.56% compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - The top-performing industries included: - Beauty Care: Increased by 3.21% with a transaction amount of 60.32 billion yuan, up 14.82% from the previous day, led by Beitaini with a rise of 12.83% [1] - Comprehensive: Increased by 1.90% with a transaction amount of 13.55 billion yuan, up 3.98%, led by Zhangzhou Development with a rise of 4.98% [1] - Non-ferrous Metals: Increased by 1.68% with a transaction amount of 203.46 billion yuan, up 42.48%, led by Western Gold with a rise of 10.03% [1] - The worst-performing industries included: - Household Appliances: Decreased by 1.57% with a transaction amount of 86.91 billion yuan, up 13.63%, led by Gree Electric with a decline of 3.02% [2] - Steel: Decreased by 1.55% with a transaction amount of 28.09 billion yuan, up 41.91%, led by Benxi Steel with a decline of 7.23% [2] - Coal: Decreased by 1.17% with a transaction amount of 30.97 billion yuan, up 49.83%, led by China Coal Energy with a decline of 3.27% [2] Stock Performance - A total of 3,065 stocks rose, with 55 hitting the daily limit up, while 2,094 stocks fell, with 5 hitting the daily limit down [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - Port coal inventories are declining, and thermal coal prices have stopped falling. As of May 30, the coal inventory at ports in the Bohai Rim was 30.572 million tons, down 4.78% week-on-week but up 18.83% year-on-year. The average closing price for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 611 CNY/ton, remaining stable week-on-week. The approaching summer peak electricity demand is expected to support a rebound in coal prices [1][4]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - The average closing price for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 611 CNY/ton, with a slight decrease of 0.03% week-on-week. The average price for mixed thermal coal at Yulin was 475 CNY/ton, unchanged week-on-week. The FOB price for thermal coal at Newcastle, Australia, was 67 USD/ton, down 2.14% [2]. Production and Utilization - The operating rate of 110 sample coal washing plants was 61.6%, down 0.8 percentage points week-on-week and down 7.3 percentage points year-on-year. The capacity utilization rate of 247 blast furnaces was 90.69%, down 0.63 percentage points week-on-week but up 2.52 percentage points year-on-year. The average daily pig iron output was 2.4185 million tons, down 0.7% week-on-week but up 2.6% year-on-year [3]. Inventory Tracking - As of May 30, the coal inventory at Qinhuangdao port was 6.75 million tons, down 7.53% week-on-week and up 42.41% year-on-year. The Bohai Rim port coal inventory was 30.572 million tons, down 4.78% week-on-week and up 18.83% year-on-year. The inventory levels at independent coking plants and sample steel mills are currently at low levels [4][53]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the seasonal increase in electricity demand during the summer is likely to support a rebound in coal prices. It recommends companies with a high proportion of long-term contracts and stable profitability, specifically China Shenhua and China Coal Energy [4]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - The report includes earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for key companies, with China Shenhua's EPS forecast for 2025 at 2.5 CNY and a PE ratio of 16. The investment rating for China Shenhua is "Accumulate" [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry [6]. Core Views - Port coal inventories are declining, and thermal coal prices have stopped falling. As of May 30, the coal inventory at ports in the Bohai Rim was 30.572 million tons, down 4.78% week-on-week but up 18.83% year-on-year. The average closing price for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 611 CNY/ton, remaining stable week-on-week. The approaching summer peak electricity demand is expected to support a rebound in coal prices [1][4]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - The average closing price for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 611 CNY/ton, with a slight decrease of 0.03% week-on-week. The average price for mixed thermal coal at the pit in Yulin, Shaanxi, was 475 CNY/ton, unchanged from the previous week [2]. Inventory Tracking - As of May 30, coal inventories at Qinhuangdao port were 6.75 million tons, down 7.53% week-on-week and up 42.41% year-on-year. The Bohai Rim port coal inventory was 30.572 million tons, down 4.78% week-on-week and up 18.83% year-on-year, indicating a high level for the same period [4][53]. Production and Utilization - The operating rate of 110 sample washing coal plants was 61.6%, down 0.8 percentage points week-on-week and down 7.3 percentage points year-on-year. The capacity utilization rate of 247 blast furnaces was 90.69%, down 0.63 percentage points week-on-week but up 2.52 percentage points year-on-year, with an average daily pig iron output of 2.4185 million tons, down 0.7% week-on-week but up 2.6% year-on-year [3][36]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the seasonal increase in electricity demand during the summer is likely to support a rebound in coal prices. It recommends companies with a high proportion of long-term contracts and stable profitability, such as China Shenhua and China Coal Energy [4][5].