紫金矿业成交额达200亿元，现跌0.52%。 ...

28 January 2026 | 7:31PM HKT Equity Research CHINA METALS & MINING: BASE METALS Raising earnings on higher copper and gold prices; Maintain Buy on Zijin and CMOC We revise up earnings by 9-33% for 2026-27E for Chinese copper and gold stocks under our coverage by incorporating the latest commodity price forecast from the global team and the latest company updates. We remain positive on copper and gold names under our coverage. Our preferred names are Zijin and CMOC as both companies will not only benefit fro ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily focus on the copper industry, discussing market dynamics, supply-demand factors, and price movements related to copper [1][2][3][4][5]. Key Points and Arguments Market Disturbances - Recent market disturbances affecting copper fundamentals include: - Nvidia's reduction in copper usage for AI applications [1] - The U.S. postponement of tariffs on critical minerals, which has put pressure on copper fundamentals and contributed to weaker copper prices compared to other metals [1][2]. Price Discrepancies - There is a notable divergence in copper prices between COMEX and LME markets: - COMEX prices weakened due to the U.S. tariff postponement [1]. - LME experienced significant warehouse congestion, with the near-term TOMORROW and NEXT contract price spread soaring to $100, marking the highest increase since 1998 [1]. Inventory Dynamics - North America has seen a hidden inventory of 20,000 tons returned to M1 due to high prices, with New Orleans inventory exceeding 10,000 tons, alleviating LME's low inventory concerns [2]. - The near-term copper price remains weak, while the long-term structure appears healthy, indicating a potential price advantage for U.S. electrolytic copper imports [2]. Supply and Demand Forecast - Short-term copper supply disruptions are expected to support prices, particularly due to a strike at the Capstone copper-gold mine in northern Chile, which has reduced capacity to about 30% [2]. - Current global copper mine production disruption rates are between 5%-6%, affecting profit transmission to capital expenditures and supply [2]. Price Trends and Economic Indicators - Copper prices are anticipated to remain stable before the Spring Festival, potentially underperforming compared to zinc and aluminum, but with limited downside [3]. - The gold-to-copper ratio has recently surged, indicating optimistic market expectations for economic recovery and potential copper price appreciation [3]. Structural Demand Growth - Copper demand is closely tied to electricity consumption, with historical trends showing a correlation between U.S. copper usage and GDP growth [3]. - The anticipated rise in AI-related expenditures is expected to drive infrastructure development, similar to the internet boom from 1990-2000, potentially increasing copper demand [4]. Long-term Supply Constraints - Long-term supply challenges include: - Low capital expenditures in copper mining over the past decade, with insufficient initial investments [4]. - Increased labor tensions and resource protection policies in producing countries, leading to higher production disruption rates [4]. Investment Opportunities - The structural tightness in copper supply and demand suggests a continued bullish outlook for copper prices [5]. - Key resource stocks to consider include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Nonferrous Mining, with a focus on companies improving copper self-sufficiency [5]. Recent Developments in Core Assets - Luoyang Molybdenum is set to complete the acquisition of three gold mines in Brazil, with an estimated contribution of approximately 2.5 billion yuan [6]. - Zijin Mining's acquisition of three gold mining areas in Côte d'Ivoire is expected to significantly increase production and reduce costs [6]. - The copper self-sufficiency improvement projects are projected to yield substantial performance growth, benefiting from macroeconomic recovery expectations [6].

资金流向方面，申万31个一级行业中有27个行业获融资净买入，其中，有色金属行业获融资净买入额居首，当日净买入59.68亿元；获融资净买入居前的行 业还有通信、计算机、建筑装饰、非银金融、医药生物等。 个股方面，64只股获融资净买入额超1亿元。紫金矿业获融资净买入额居首，净买入14.71亿元；融资净买入金额居前的还有天孚通信、中国平安、网宿科 技、恒运昌、长江电力、贵州茅台、江西铜业、寒武纪、北方稀土等。 | 序号 | 证券代码 ◆ | 证券简称 = | 交易日期 = | 融资净买入额(万元) ◆ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 601899.SH | 紫雯贴,亚 | 2026-01-28 | 147,056.65 | | 2 | 300394.SZ | 天孚通信 | 2026-01-28 | 82,518.08 | | 3 | 601318.SH | 中国平安 | 2026-01-28 | 79,295.45 | | ব | 300017.SZ | 网宿科技 | 2026-01-28 | 74,754.02 | | 5 | 688785.SH | 恒运昌 | 2 ...

Market Overview - On January 28, A-share indices showed divergence, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.27% to 4151.24 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.09%, and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.57% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.97 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 70.4 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Net outflow of main funds amounted to 43.598 billion yuan, with the non-ferrous metals sector seeing the highest net inflow, while the photovoltaic equipment sector experienced the largest net outflow [1] Key Stocks - The top ten popular stocks included Tongling Nonferrous Metals, Silver (core stock), Hunan Silver, China Aluminum, Zijin Mining, China Gold, Luoyang Molybdenum, LEO Technology, Jushi Group, and Intercontinental Oil and Gas [1][2] Non-Ferrous Metals Sector - Tongling Nonferrous Metals is influenced by multiple external factors, including geopolitical tensions driving up precious metal prices and tight global copper supply coupled with surging demand in the new energy sector [3] - The company is advancing resource expansion, with the Ecuador Mirador copper mine phase II project pending approval, which will significantly enhance its resource self-sufficiency [3] Silver Sector - Silver (core stock) performance is driven by both industry and company-level factors, with international precious metal prices rising and the company planning to invest 1.5 billion yuan to establish a gold subsidiary and participate in gold mining rights acquisition [3] - Hunan Silver, as the only A-share listed company focused on pure silver, benefits from external factors such as geopolitical risk and expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, which have increased demand for silver [3] Aluminum Sector - China Aluminum is affected by policy, industry, company, and market factors, with the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission incorporating "market value management" into the assessment of central enterprises [4] - The supply-demand dynamics in the electrolytic aluminum market have reversed, leading to price increases due to supply constraints [4] Gold Sector - Zijin Mining's increased attention stems from significant strategic acquisitions and favorable industry conditions, including a major overseas gold mine acquisition worth 28 billion yuan and rising international gold prices [4] - China Gold is supported by macro and micro factors, including historical highs in international gold prices and domestic gold jewelry price increases, alongside a trend of central banks purchasing gold [4] Molybdenum Sector - Luoyang Molybdenum's market performance is based on strong fundamentals and industry value, with continuous record-breaking net profits and a diverse portfolio of key mineral resources [5] Technology Sector - LEO Technology is gaining attention due to its involvement in popular sectors, particularly AI applications and liquid cooling technologies, with significant partnerships with leading companies like Huawei and NVIDIA [6]

从融资买入额占当日总成交金额比重来看，有4只个股融资买入额占比超30%。其中汇通控股、吉贝 尔、光明肉业融资买入额占成交额比重排名前三，分别为33.19%、32.13%、31.96%。 A股1月28日共有3766只个股获融资资金买入，有646股买入金额超亿元。其中，紫金矿业、中际旭创、 新易盛融资买入金额排名前三，分别获买入32.67亿元、25.64亿元、20.84亿元。 从融资净买入金额来看，有64只个股获融资净买入超亿元。其中，紫金矿业、天孚通信、中国平安融资 净买入金额排名前三，分别获净买入14.71亿元、8.25亿元、7.93亿元。 ...

金价再迈新台阶，现货黄金首次突破5500美元／盎司大关，本周金价从略低于5000美元的水平一路狂 飙，连破6道整百关口，周涨幅超500美元。而在黄金价格持续走强的市场环境下，与黄金挂钩的基金产 品也随之迎来空前热度，黄金相关主题ETF成为资金追逐的焦点，展现出极强的吸金能力。 多只黄金ETF涨停 宽基ETF"定时"成交量放大 28日，全市场ETF中，涨幅前十的ETF有9只为黄金股和有色相关ETF，其中3只黄金股相关ETF涨停。 在ETF两融资金下降的态势下，超过百亿"真金白银"逆势抢筹黄金股ETF。截至当日收盘，国泰基金黄 金股票ETF（517400）涨10%，永赢基金黄金股ETF（517520）涨9.99%，平安基金黄金股ETF （159322）涨10.02%。同时，涨势喜人的还有华安基金黄金股ETF（159321）涨9.93%，工银瑞信黄金 股ETF（159315）涨9.67%，华夏基金黄金股ETF（159562）涨9.25%。 | 序号 | 证券代码 A | 证券简称 | A 涨跌停状态 | 1 其余场内简称 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | [交易日期 ...

宏观与产业形成共振，铜的战略价值持续提升。全球地缘政治冲突加剧，铜作为关键矿产的战略属性凸 显，各国对资源的掌控力度持续加强。美元信用削弱趋势下，铜与贵金属的联动性增强，在避险情绪与 通胀预期的双重作用下，资金对铜的配置需求提升。中长期来看，AI数据中心、新能源汽车、储能等 新兴领域快速发展，将持续打开铜的需求天花板，而供给端的刚性约束难以短期缓解，供需紧平衡格局 将长期维持，铜价中枢有望逐步上移。 据新华社报道，国际黄金期货价格和现货价格29日再创新高，盘中突破每盎司5500美元。 近期工业金属板块表现亮眼，资金关注度持续提升。作为工业金属的核心品种，铜正从传统工业金属升 级为战略资产，这会如何定义其未来的价值？请看机构最新研判。 近期，有色板块中铜品种表现亮眼，资金关注度显著提升。这轮行情的核心支撑，主要来自供需两端的 共振。供给端，全球铜矿资本开支不足，矿端扰动频发，铜精矿供需格局由紧平衡转向短缺；需求端， 国内经济复苏带动下游补库，海外降息周期打开流动性宽松空间，铜的金融属性与商品属性形成正向循 环。 具体来看，供给端约束持续强化，成为铜价的核心支撑。全球铜矿长期资本开支不足，叠加矿山品位下 降、地缘 ...

来源：智通财经 2025年以来，紫金矿业（601899.SH）、洛阳钼业（603993.SH）、江西铜业（600362.SH）、灵宝黄金 （03330.HK）等上市公司加速海外"淘金"。 已跻身全球前5大黄金上市企业之列的紫金矿业，近一年多累计超450亿元连收7个海外金矿。1月26日公 司宣布，旗下紫金黄金国际（2259.HK）拟约280亿元收购加拿大上市公司联合黄金，以获得3个非洲金 矿项目。 洛阳钼业从2025年6月以来累计投入百亿收购金矿：在去年6月收购厄瓜多尔奥丁金矿后，公司今年1月 25日完成第二笔金矿交易，出资约71.62亿元收购加拿大上市矿企Equinox Gold旗下3个巴西金矿项目。 江西铜业在去年年初增资成为伦敦上市公司SolGold最大单一股东后，于12月24日第三次报价约82亿元 收购其余股份，以拿下厄瓜多尔Cascabel大金矿。 灵宝黄金去年12月10日宣布，拟以17.35亿元认购澳大利亚公司St Barbara Mining50%+1股股权，获得巴 布亚新几内亚Simberi金矿。 近一年多累计耗资超450亿元海外买金矿。此前2024年12月，紫金矿业以最高3亿美元收购秘鲁LaA ...

Overview of Public FOF Funds in Q4 2025 - As of Q4 2025, there are 549 FOF products in the market with a total scale of 244.188 billion yuan, an increase of 26.20% compared to Q3 2025 [1][2] - FOFs are categorized into three types based on the proportion of equity assets: bond-type FOFs (less than 30%), balanced FOFs (30% to 60%), and equity-type FOFs (more than 60%) [3] - The scale of bond-type FOFs reached 161.113 billion yuan, accounting for 65.98% of the total market FOF scale, which has been increasing since Q1 2024 [4] FOF Fund Manager Preferences - The top three actively managed equity funds with the most FOF holdings are: 1. Fuquan Stable Growth A (31 FOFs) 2. Boda Jiuhang C (22 FOFs) 3. Zhongou Dividend Enjoyment A (21 FOFs) [20] - The largest FOF holdings by scale are: 1. Xingquan Business Model Preferred A (4.77 billion yuan) 2. Yifangda Information Industry Selected C (3.65 billion yuan) 3. Yifangda Kerong (3.59 billion yuan) [20] Changes in FOF Fund Manager Allocations - In Q4 2025, the most net increased actively managed equity funds by FOFs are: 1. Yifangda Reform Dividend (4 FOFs) 2. Jingshun Longcheng Stable Return C (3 FOFs) 3. Zhongou Small Cap Growth C (3 FOFs) [33] - The largest net increase in scale for actively managed equity funds is for Jingshun Longcheng Stable Return C (0.66 billion yuan) [34] FOF Stock Investment Situation - By Q4 2025, 168 FOFs directly invested in stocks, with the highest proportion in balanced FOFs, followed by equity-type FOFs [1] - The top three stocks held by FOFs are: 1. Zijin Mining 2. Ningde Times 3. Hanwujing-U [1] Performance of Different Types of FOFs - In Q4 2025, the median returns for different types of FOFs are: - Bond-type FOFs: 0.33% - Balanced FOFs: -0.64% - Equity-type FOFs: -1.21% [13] - The top-performing bond-type FOFs in Q4 2025 are: 1. Tianhong Pension Target 2030 One-Year Holding (2.92%) 2. Ping An Yingyue Stable Return One-Year Holding A (1.81%) 3. Guotai Ruiyue Three-Month Holding (1.80%) [15][16] FOF Configuration by Fund Managers - The top three fund managers with the most FOF configurations in Q4 2025 are: 1. Yang Meng 2. Fan Yan 3. Liu Jianwei [1] - The most configured bond-type fund is Guangfa Pure Bond A, held by 32 FOFs [27]