要点 2025 年 5 月 2 日 公司研究 25Q1 业绩稳定增长，装机容量有望持续扩张 ——中国核电（601985.SH）2024 年年报暨 2025 年一季度报点评 事件：公司发布 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季度报。2024 年，公司实现营收 772.72 亿元，同比+3.09%；归母净利润 87.77 亿元，同比-17.38%。2025 年一季度， 公司实现营收 202.72亿元，同比+12.70%；归母净利润 31.37 亿元，同比+2.55%。 24 年核电发电量同比稍有下降，绿电发电量同比大增。公司 2024 年累计商运 发电量为 2163.49 亿千瓦时，同比+3.09%；上网电量为 2039.23 亿千瓦时，同 比+3.28%。其中，核电发电量 1831.22 亿千瓦时，同比-1.80%；上网电量 1712.60 亿千瓦时，同比-1.83%。主要原因系维修次数增多及受台风影响：秦山大修安 排同比增多，发电量同比-1.52%；海南核电受"摩羯"台风影响，配合电网线 路检修降功率，发电量同比-7.85%；福清 4 号机组小修，发电量同比-6.74%。 由于新能源在运装机规模增加，新能源发 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The significant increase in income tax expenses has negatively impacted profitability, but the existing nuclear power projects ensure stable growth [5] - The company reported a revenue of 77.27 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.09%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 17.38% to 8.78 billion yuan [7] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.16 yuan per share for 2024, with a payout ratio of 41.9%, an increase of approximately 7 percentage points year-on-year [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecasts: - 2023: 74.96 billion yuan - 2024: 77.27 billion yuan - 2025E: 84.54 billion yuan - 2026E: 88.54 billion yuan - 2027E: 99.29 billion yuan - Year-on-Year Growth Rates: - 2023: 5.15% - 2024: 3.09% - 2025E: 9.41% - 2026E: 4.73% - 2027E: 12.13% [6] - Net Profit Forecasts: - 2023: 10.62 billion yuan - 2024: 8.78 billion yuan - 2025E: 9.99 billion yuan - 2026E: 10.50 billion yuan - 2027E: 11.28 billion yuan - Year-on-Year Growth Rates: - 2023: 17.91% - 2024: -17.38% - 2025E: 13.89% - 2026E: 5.05% - 2027E: 7.41% [6] Operational Highlights - In 2024, the company achieved a nuclear power generation volume of 183.12 billion kWh, a decrease of 1.8% year-on-year, primarily due to increased maintenance at the Fuqing Nuclear Power Plant [7] - The company completed a renewable energy generation volume of 33.23 billion kWh in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 42.21% [7] - The marketization ratio of nuclear power reached 50.78%, an increase of 8.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the renewable energy marketization ratio reached 66.43%, an increase of 7.31 percentage points year-on-year [7] Future Outlook - The company has received approval for 10 new nuclear power units, bringing the total number of units under construction or approved to 19, which is expected to support stable long-term growth [7] - The forecasted net profit for 2025-2027 is expected to be 10.00 billion yuan, 10.50 billion yuan, and 11.28 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 13.9%, 5.1%, and 7.4% [7]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 77.272 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.09%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.777 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.38% [1] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 20.273 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.70%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.137 billion yuan, an increase of 2.55% [1] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The average on-grid electricity prices for nuclear, solar, and wind power in 2024 were approximately 0.4151, 0.4466, and 0.3885 yuan per kilowatt-hour, respectively, with changes of +0.4, -0.09, and -0.03 yuan compared to 2023 [2] - The company's income tax expenses for 2024 were 6.011 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 68.34%, primarily due to the provision for value-added tax refunds affecting income tax expenses [2] Power Generation and Capacity - The total on-grid electricity for 2024 was 203.923 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 3.28%, with nuclear power generation at 171.260 billion kilowatt-hours, a decrease of 1.83% [1] - The company has 18 nuclear power units under construction or awaiting approval as of December 31, 2024, with a total installed capacity of 20.641 million kilowatts [3] Future Growth Prospects - The company plans to commission the Zhangzhou Nuclear Power Unit 2 in 2025, with additional units expected to come online in 2026 and 2027, indicating strong growth potential [3] - The company forecasts net profits of 9.6 billion, 10.3 billion, and 11.4 billion yuan for 2025 to 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 9.42%, 7.32%, and 10.77%, respectively [3]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting of China Nuclear Power's board of directors approved the nomination of non-independent director candidates by the National Social Security Fund Council and China Reform Holdings Corporation, marking a significant step in the company's governance and development [1] Group 1: Company Developments - The National Social Security Fund and China Reform Holdings' nomination of directors is a practical implementation of the government's call to deepen capital market reforms and promote long-term capital investment [1] - China Nuclear Power is a leading enterprise in domestic nuclear energy generation, with three core industries: nuclear energy, non-nuclear clean energy, and strategic emerging industries [1] - The company has accelerated innovations in various reactor types, including Hualong One, high-temperature reactors, fast reactors, and small reactors, as well as isotope production technology [1] Group 2: Industry Context - The government's work report emphasizes the importance of integrating long-term capital into the capital market, which is now being realized through a series of related policies [1] - The involvement of long-term capital in corporate governance is expected to enhance the quality of listed companies [1]

Group 1 - The China Power Utility Index has seen a decline of 0.85% as of April 30, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks, including Shenzhen Energy leading with a rise of 2.73% [1] - The Power ETF (159611) has shown a cumulative increase of 0.63% over the past week, with a trading volume of 188 million yuan and a turnover rate of 5.64% on the latest trading day [1] - The Power ETF has experienced significant growth in scale, increasing by 1.641 billion yuan over the past six months, ranking first among comparable funds [1] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Power Utility Index account for 55.94% of the index, with major players including Changjiang Electric Power and China Nuclear Power [2] - The five major power generation groups reported profits in 2024, with Guodian Power distributing cash dividends of 3.567 billion yuan, representing 36.28% of its net profit [2] - The power and utility sector is recognized for its stability and defensive characteristics, with expectations for favorable fiscal and monetary policies in 2025 to support high dividend, low valuation assets [2] Group 3 - The National Energy Administration anticipates a rapid increase in national electricity load during the summer of 2025, with a projected year-on-year increase of approximately 10 million kilowatts [3] - The total electricity consumption in China is expected to reach 10.4 trillion kilowatt-hours in 2025, with a growth rate of around 6% [3] - Recommendations have been made to focus on investment opportunities in the power sector, particularly in light of potential supply pressures during peak periods [3]

在能源结构持续向低碳化、安全性与稳定性并重的背景下，核电作为重要的清洁基荷能源正重回政策与 资本的双重焦点。2024年，在传统能源承压、新能源竞争加剧的大环境下，中国核电(601985.SH)交出 了一份稳健中有增长、扩张中控节奏的财报，展现出作为"清洁能源央企梯队中第二核心资产"的长期潜 力。 营收稳中有升，现金流优异，盈利能力保持韧性 根据公司2024年年报，中国核电全年实现营业收入772.72亿元，同比增长3.09%；实现利润总额225.64 亿元，同比微降1.82%；净利润为165.53亿元，其中归属于母公司股东的净利润为87.77亿元，同比下降 17.38%。尽管盈利短期承压，但整体仍维持在历史高位，显示出良好的基本盘和管理韧性。 这一"高位稳住"的表现，是否意味着公司穿越周期的能力已被市场低估？从长期视角看，中国核电的盈 利节奏值得重新审视。 从图中可以看出，中国核电近十年归母净利润整体呈"阶梯式上行"。2015至2019年，公司每年都在稳步 增长，节奏不急不躁，却非常扎实，体现了电力运营央企在政策、电价与成本周期变化中的强抗压能 力；2020年起，公司进入新一轮装机投产周期，盈利水平迎来明显抬升 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for China Nuclear Power (601985), expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [1][22]. Core Views - The report highlights a 3% year-on-year growth in net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2025, with new projects receiving approval, ensuring long-term growth potential [1]. - The company is expected to see a revenue increase from 77.27 billion yuan in 2024 to 84.87 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 9.8% [2]. - The report emphasizes the company's robust pipeline of projects under construction, which is anticipated to support its medium to long-term growth trajectory [6]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit**: In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 77.27 billion yuan, a 3.09% increase year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.77 billion yuan, down 17.4% year-on-year [6][7]. - **Quarterly Performance**: For Q1 2025, the company reported a net profit of 3.14 billion yuan, a 2.55% increase year-on-year, with revenue reaching 20.27 billion yuan, up 12.7% year-on-year [6][7]. - **Electricity Generation**: The total electricity generated in 2024 was 203.92 billion kWh, a 3.28% increase year-on-year, with a significant growth in renewable energy generation [6]. Project Pipeline and Growth Potential - The report notes that as of March 31, 2025, the company has 26 operational nuclear power units with a total capacity of 24.96 million kW and 17 units under construction or approved, with a capacity of 19.43 million kW [6]. - The recent approval of two new nuclear units at the Zhejiang Sanmen Nuclear Power Project is expected to further enhance the company's growth prospects [6]. Valuation and Price Target - The report adjusts the earnings forecast for 2025 to 10.5 billion yuan and for 2026 to 11.5 billion yuan, with a new target price set at 10.7 yuan, indicating a 15% upside from the current price of 9.33 yuan [2][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for China Nuclear Power (601985.SH) with a target price of 9.33 CNY, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [6][12]. Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is reported at 77.272 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 3.09%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 17.38% to 8.777 billion CNY. The basic earnings per share (EPS) is 0.463 CNY [1][5]. - The increase in income tax expenses significantly impacted the Q4 2024 performance, while the decline in profits from the renewable energy sector affected the growth rate in Q1 2025 [2]. - The company achieved a total power generation of 2,163.49 billion kWh in 2024, with nuclear power generation at 1,831.22 billion kWh, a decrease of 1.80%. However, renewable energy generation saw substantial growth, with solar power increasing by 44.81% and wind power by 39.02% [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 20.273 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, and a net profit of 3.137 billion CNY, up 2.55% [1][2]. - The company plans to achieve a total power generation target of 2,370 billion kWh in 2025, with nuclear power expected to contribute 1,954 billion kWh, a 6.7% increase year-on-year [3]. Growth Potential - The company has 26 operational nuclear units with a total installed capacity of 24.962 million kW and 17 units under construction or awaiting approval, totaling 19.429 million kW. The approval of additional projects is expected to further enhance capacity [4]. - The dividend payout ratio reached a record high of 41.8% in 2024, with potential for future increases to 80% during mature phases without significant capital expenditures [4]. Profit Forecast - The profit forecasts for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 10.328 billion CNY, 11.136 billion CNY, and 12.376 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.50 CNY, 0.54 CNY, and 0.60 CNY [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for China Nuclear Power (601985.SH) with a target price based on a PE ratio of 19/17/16 for the years 2025/2026/2027 respectively [6][4]. Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is reported at 77.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.09%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 17.38% to 8.78 billion yuan. The basic earnings per share (EPS) is 0.463 yuan [1][4]. - The increase in income tax expenses significantly impacted the Q4 2024 performance, while the decline in profits from the new energy sector affected the growth rate in Q1 2025 [2][4]. - The company achieved a total power generation of 216.35 billion kWh in 2024, with nuclear power generation at 183.12 billion kWh, a decrease of 1.80%. However, renewable energy saw significant growth, with solar power generation increasing by 44.81% [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 20.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, and a net profit of 3.14 billion yuan, up 2.55% [1][2]. - The total power generation for Q1 2025 was 59.74 billion kWh, a 16.93% increase year-on-year, with nuclear power contributing 49.48 billion kWh, a 13.30% increase [3][4]. Growth Prospects - The company plans to achieve a total power generation target of 237 billion kWh for 2025, with nuclear power expected to generate 195.4 billion kWh, a 6.7% increase year-on-year [3][4]. - The company has 26 operational nuclear units with a capacity of 24.96 million kW and 17 units under construction or awaiting approval, with a total capacity of 19.43 million kW [4]. Dividend Policy - The dividend payout ratio for 2024 reached a record high of 41.8%, with potential increases in future payout ratios as the company matures and capital expenditures decrease [4].

公用事业/电力 中国核电（601985.SH） 2024 年业绩不及预期，核电核准进入常态化阶段 2025 年 04 月 30 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/4/29 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 9.33 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 12.29/8.66 | | 总市值(亿元) | 1,918.99 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 1,761.81 | | 总股本(亿股) | 205.68 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 188.83 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 28.98 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 48% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 中国核电 沪深300 相关研究报告 《核电加速核准，风光多线布局，开 启新一轮成长—公司首次覆盖报告》 -2024.11.26 周磊（分析师） zhoulei1@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524090002 公司发布 2024 年报&2025 一季报，2024 年计提大量所得税导致业绩不及预期 2024 年公司实现营业收入 772. ...