当前，商业银行线下网点"瘦身"已趋于常态化。 农商行占比达八成 据金监总局官网"金融许可证信息"栏目，截至12月8日，共计6747家商业银行线下网点正式 退出，与去年退出的2533家相比大幅增加。 其中，当前最新退出的机构是广东清新农村商业银行股份有限公司浸潭中心分理处，批准日 期为2018年7月31日，发证日期为2021年12月22日，发证机关是清远分局，退出日期为今年 12月5日。 与此同时，今年第一家获批退出的是中原银行股份有限公司三门峡文博城支行，批准日期为 2014年12月23日，发证日期在2021年10月8日，发证机关为三门峡分局，退出日期为今年1月 2日。 | 机构类型 | 退出数量 | 退出数量 | 增减率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 截至2025年12月8日 | 截至2024年12月31日 | (%) | | 农商行 | 5446 | 1302 | 318. 28 | | 国有大行 | 692 | 644 | 7.45 | | 股份行 | 277 | 316 | (12. 34) | | 城商行 | 273 | 221 | 23. 53 | | 外资银行 ...

Core Insights - The issuance of green financial bonds in the banking sector has significantly increased in 2023, with a total issuance exceeding 530 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of over 186% [1][5][6] Group 1: Issuance Scale and Growth - As of December 14, 2023, the banking industry has issued 68 green financial bonds, with a total scale surpassing 530 billion yuan, which is an increase of 333.6 billion yuan compared to the previous year [1] - The issuance from state-owned banks has been substantial, with the six major state-owned banks collectively issuing 206 billion yuan in green financial bonds, approximately three times the total issuance of the previous year [3][4] Group 2: Participation of Different Banking Institutions - Regional small and medium-sized banks have accelerated their participation, with the number of green financial bonds issued increasing from 22 to 30 compared to the same period last year [1][2] - Notably, since November, eight regional banks have issued a total of 172 billion yuan in green financial bonds, indicating a rapid increase in issuance activity [2] Group 3: Policy and Market Drivers - The rapid development of green financial bonds is closely linked to the deepening of ESG practices in the banking sector, supported by policy guidance and market demand [5][6] - Recent policies have emphasized the importance of increasing green credit and developing green financial products, which has facilitated the growth of green bond issuance [5][6] Group 4: Cost and Efficiency Improvements - The average issuance interest rate for green financial bonds has decreased from 1.96% in 2024 to 1.75% in 2023, enhancing the cost-effectiveness of financing for green projects [4] - The introduction of floating rate green bonds has allowed banks to better adapt to market interest rate fluctuations, improving the resilience of the bond market [4]

本报记者 杨洁 多家国有大行在会议中表示，中央经济工作会议为做好2026年经济金融工作提供了根本遵循，结合自身实际，下一步工作 将重点围绕在全面做好金融"五篇大文章"、加力支持扩大内需、支持"两新"政策与"两重"项目实施、统筹高质量发展与高水平 安全、全面服务好高水平对外开放等多个维度。 近日，政策性银行、国有大行党委纷纷召开会议，传达学习中央经济工作会议精神，按照全国金融系统工作会议的要求， 研究部署贯彻落实举措，有力有序有效做好2026年经营管理工作。 与此同时，各家大行均强调突出主责主业。工商银行会议提出要发挥主力军作用，持续发力促高质量发展。围绕服务"四 稳"，突出主责主业，提供全面金融解决方案；农业银行会议强调要坚守服务"三农"主责主业，进一步加大县域乡村融资投 放，推动县域经济高质量发展，持续巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果；中国银行会议要求加快提升全球布局能力和国际竞争力，积极服 务高质量共建"一带一路"、自贸区（港）建设、贸易投资一体化发展，加快推进人民币国际使用，助力深化改革扩大开放；建 设银行会议强调持续优化扩大内需、科技创新、协调发展、中小微企业、民生保障等重点领域金融供给，推动金融资源向经济 社会 ...

Group 1 - The top ten financial brands in Beijing for the year 2025 have been announced [1] - The list includes major banks such as ICBC, China Construction Bank, and Agricultural Bank of China [2] - Other notable companies on the list are China Life Insurance and Ping An Life Insurance [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the banking sector, indicating an expected performance that will exceed the market by more than 10% over the next 12 months [41]. Core Insights - The report discusses the concept of "asset scarcity," which is explained through two perspectives: the mismatch between supply and demand for funds, and the insufficient supply of quality assets that meet investors' risk and return preferences. It argues that the traditional supply-demand imbalance does not adequately explain the phenomenon of asset scarcity [5][13]. - The report identifies three dimensions of asset scarcity: macro, meso, and micro. It emphasizes that the bond market is primarily concerned with the micro-level aspects of asset scarcity [5][16]. - To alleviate macro-level asset scarcity, the report suggests increasing credit issuance and fiscal efforts, enhancing liquidity management by the central bank, and guiding non-bank funds back to banks to lower residents' yield expectations on non-bank assets [20][23]. - At the meso level, the report highlights the importance of fiscal and monetary growth rates, suggesting that credit and fiscal efforts should be strengthened while avoiding capital idling [23][24]. - The micro-level analysis focuses on the expectations of institutions regarding asset-liability expansion and actual expansion, noting that there is often a mismatch between liabilities and suitable assets [25][29]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Asset Scarcity Exploration - The report explores why the market has shifted its focus away from "asset scarcity," attributing this to a lack of significant asset-liability gaps in the real economy and the nature of interest rates as contractual [5][13]. - It discusses the macroeconomic factors influencing asset scarcity, including the expected decline in bond market yields and economic forecasts [16][18]. Section 2: Financial Institutions' Asset-Liability Management - The report provides a detailed analysis of financial institutions' liabilities, emphasizing the need for a balance between asset expansion and government debt supply [25][29]. - It projects that by 2026, the demand for government bonds will increase by 1.5 trillion yuan compared to 2025, indicating a growing need for asset allocation in the banking sector [25][29]. Section 3: Insurance Sector Analysis - The report estimates that the insurance sector will face a net increase in asset-liability mismatch of 1.28 trillion yuan by 2026, driven by the expiration of high-yield non-standard investments and continuous growth in premium income [30][29]. Section 4: Expected Returns and Market Dynamics - The report highlights the compression of asset-liability yield spreads due to rigid liabilities and flexible asset yields, which contributes to the practical aspect of asset scarcity for enterprises and theoretical scarcity for residents [35][29]. - It suggests that banks should lower the rigid costs of liabilities and guide non-bank entities to adjust their yield expectations [35][29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [4][25]. Core Insights - The report highlights a slowdown in credit growth, with November's new social financing at 2.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 159.7 billion yuan, and new loans of 390 billion yuan, down 190 billion yuan year-on-year. The M1 money supply grew by 4.9%, while M2 increased by 8.0%, both showing a decline in growth rates compared to the previous month [1][4]. - The report anticipates that while credit growth may not accelerate significantly, the central bank's commitment to a "moderately loose monetary policy" and support for banks' net interest margins will likely lead to improved revenue for the banking sector in 2026 [4][2]. - Retail demand remains under pressure, with a net decrease in household credit of nearly 206 billion yuan in November, reflecting ongoing deleveraging among consumers. The report suggests that a recovery in retail demand will depend on improvements in household income [4][2]. Summary by Sections Credit and Financing - In November, new loans totaled 390 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 190 billion yuan, with total new loans from January to November at 15.4 trillion yuan, down 1.7 trillion yuan year-on-year. The growth rate of RMB loans remained stable at 6.3% [4][1]. - The report notes that corporate loans saw a slight increase, with 270 billion yuan in new loans, while the issuance of corporate bonds and off-balance-sheet financing provided support against government debt and credit drag [4][7]. Monetary Supply - The M1 money supply grew by 4.9% year-on-year, down from 7.1% in the previous year, while M2 increased by 8.0%, showing a slight decline in growth rates [4][8]. - The report indicates that the decrease in deposits reflects a shift in non-bank deposits, which is closely related to the activity in the equity market [4][8]. Future Outlook - The report expresses optimism for 2026, expecting that the focus on corporate lending will continue, and improvements in the Producer Price Index (PPI) may enhance corporate profitability, positively impacting bank earnings [4][2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the effectiveness of stimulus policies aimed at boosting domestic demand, which could lead to a more favorable environment for banks [4][2].

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|银行 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 跨境流动性跟踪 20251214 出口韧性累积蓄水池，联储鸽派降息助推资金回流 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [联系人： Table_Contacts] 李文洁 021-38003644 gfliwenjie@gf.com.cn 972918116公共联系人2025-12-14 21:42:46 1 / 24 [分析师： Table_Author]倪军 -10% -3% 4% 10% 17% 24% 12/24 02/25 05/25 07/25 09/25 12/25 银行 沪深300 | | SAC 执证号：S0260518020004 | | --- | --- | | | 021-38003646 | | | nijun@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 林虎 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260525040004 | | | SFC CE No. BWK411 | | | 021-38003643 | | | gflinhu@gf.com.cn | 请注意，倪军并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会 ...

Group 1 - Six major state-owned banks in China have initiated the distribution of mid-term dividends for 2025, with total dividends exceeding 200 billion yuan [1] - The dividend distribution dates for A-shares and H-shares have been announced, with specific dates set for each bank [1][2] - The dividend payout ratios for all six banks are maintained at 30% or above of their net profit attributable to shareholders [2] Group 2 - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) will distribute a cash dividend of 0.1414 yuan per share, totaling approximately 503.96 billion yuan [2] - Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) will distribute a cash dividend of 0.1195 yuan per share, totaling approximately 418.23 billion yuan [2] - Bank of China (BOC) will distribute a cash dividend of 0.1094 yuan per share, totaling approximately 352.50 billion yuan [2] - China Construction Bank (CCB) will distribute a cash dividend of 0.1858 yuan per share, totaling approximately 486.05 billion yuan [2] - Bank of Communications (BoCom) will distribute a cash dividend of 0.1563 yuan per share, totaling approximately 138.11 billion yuan [3] - Postal Savings Bank of China (PSBC) will distribute a cash dividend of 0.1230 yuan per share, totaling approximately 147.72 billion yuan [3] Group 3 - The encouragement from financial regulatory authorities has led to an increase in mid-term dividends among listed banks, reflecting a policy direction aimed at enhancing cash dividends [3] - Experts believe that mid-term dividends can boost investor confidence in bank stocks and foster long-term value investment concepts [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that as of December 13, 26 A-share listed banks have disclosed their mid-term or quarterly dividend plans for 2025, surpassing the 24 banks that did so in the same period of 2024, with total dividends expected to exceed 260 billion yuan [1][3] - The banks disclosing dividend plans include 6 large state-owned banks, 6 joint-stock banks, and 14 small and medium-sized banks, with the six major state-owned banks expected to contribute over 200 billion yuan in cash dividends [3] - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China leads with an estimated dividend of approximately 50.4 billion yuan, followed by China Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, Postal Savings Bank of China, and Bank of Communications [3] Group 2 - Joint-stock banks such as Industrial Bank and CITIC Bank are expected to have mid-term dividends exceeding 10 billion yuan, while China Everbright Bank and Minsheng Bank are projected to exceed 5 billion yuan [3] - Some small and medium-sized banks, like Shanghai Bank and Nanjing Bank, also show significant dividend amounts, with several banks like Industrial Bank and Ningbo Bank introducing mid-term dividend plans for the first time [3] - The increase in dividend frequency among commercial banks is a response to the new "National Nine Articles" aimed at promoting multiple dividends per year for listed companies, enhancing the connection between company profits and investor returns [3] Group 3 - More frequent dividends can directly enhance shareholder satisfaction, allowing investors to share in the banks' operational success in a timely manner [4] - Stable cash returns align well with the investment needs of long-term funds such as social security funds, pension funds, and insurance capital, helping to attract these funds for long-term holding [4] - The positioning of banks as dividend-oriented can create a virtuous cycle of attracting long-term capital, enhancing stock price stability, and reducing abnormal price fluctuations caused by short-term speculation [4]

Core Viewpoint - The development of digital RMB is crucial for establishing a new international monetary and financial order, and it is imperative to accelerate its innovation and application to gain a competitive advantage globally [1][19]. Group 1: Digital RMB Development - Since May 2025, the U.S. and Hong Kong have been advancing legislation on stablecoins and digital assets, prompting discussions in China about the need to promote digital RMB and stablecoin legislation [3][22]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced plans to optimize the positioning of digital RMB beyond the previously defined M0 level and to enhance its management system [3][22]. - A meeting was held on November 28, where 13 departments emphasized the need to continue prohibiting virtual currencies and to combat illegal financial activities related to them [3][22]. Group 2: Challenges and Controversies - The policy direction to firmly curb virtual currencies has exceeded many expectations and has sparked significant social debate [4][23]. - The initial positioning of digital RMB as M0 has led to limitations in supply and application scenarios, making it less competitive compared to mobile payments [7][27]. - There is a need to redefine the essence and positioning of digital RMB to ensure its successful development and international competitiveness [4][28]. Group 3: Technological and Structural Considerations - Digital RMB must leverage technologies such as blockchain and smart contracts to enhance efficiency and security [12][34]. - The integration of digital RMB with digital identity systems is essential for ensuring the authenticity and security of user information [14][36]. - A clear distinction between domestic and international versions of digital RMB is necessary due to jurisdictional differences [16][37]. Group 4: Strategic Importance - Digital RMB should be elevated to a national strategic project, requiring collaboration across various government departments to ensure effective resource allocation and project quality [18][39]. - The relationship between digital RMB and existing RMB clearing systems must be carefully managed to ensure seamless integration and operation [19][40].