Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Commodity Index Daily Report [2] - Report Date: June 4, 2025 [2] - Stock Code: 603093 [2] Market Data Summary Index Performance - **Composite Index**: The Nanhua Composite Index (NHCI) closed at 2382.69, up 0.89% (20.93 points) from the previous close of 2361.76, with an annualized return of -14.10% and an annualized volatility of 14.05% [3]. - **Sector Indices**: The Nanhua Black Index (NHFI) had the largest increase among sector indices, rising 2.11% (47.81 points) to 2318.50. The Nanhua Non - Ferrous Metal Index (NHNF) had the smallest increase, up 1.30% (21.09 points) to 1646.41. The Nanhua Agricultural Product Index (NHAI) had the largest decline, down - 0.23% (-2.43 points) to 1053.62, and the Nanhua Precious Metal Index (NHPMI) had the smallest decline, down - 0.02% (-0.23 points) to 1221.32 [1][3]. - **Theme Indices**: Among theme indices, only the Nanhua Oilseeds and Oils Index (NHOOl) declined, down - 0.51% (-5.99 points) to 1172.97. The Nanhua Black Raw Material Index (NHFM) had the largest increase, rising 2.58% (23.28 points) to 926.60, and the Nanhua Economic Crop Index (NHAECI) had the smallest increase, up 0.56% (4.86 points) to 876.89 [1][3]. - **Single - Variety Indices**: Among commodity futures single - variety indices, the coking coal index had the largest increase, rising 6.82%, and the plywood index had the largest decline, down - 5.16% [3]. Contribution and Volatility - **Contribution of Single Varieties**: Some single - variety indices showed different contributions to the overall index. For example, in terms of contribution, positive - contributing varieties included rebar with a contribution of 25.57%, soda ash with 20.23%, and iron ore with 16.58% and 19.23% respectively [4]. - **Volatility**: The annualized volatility and Sharpe ratio of different indices varied. For instance, the Nanhua Precious Metal Index (NHPMI) had an annualized return of 20.19%, an annualized volatility of 18.72%, and a Sharpe ratio of 1.08, while the Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index (NHECI) had an annualized return of - 23.12%, an annualized volatility of 16.98%, and a Sharpe ratio of - 1.36 [3].

Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The log market is expected to continue its weak and volatile pattern. It is recommended to operate within a range, focusing on high - selling and low - buying. With 14 days remaining until the option expiration, attention should be paid to the subsequent decay of time value. It is advised to sell lg2507C800 at high prices and lg2507P750 at low prices. If the market drops significantly, consider buying lg2507C775 at low prices. The 09 contract, corresponding to a relatively seasonal peak season, presents a chance to buy on dips [4]. Summary by Relevant Content Log Price and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for logs is 740 - 800. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 16.28%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility over 3 years is 67.4% [2]. Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - When log imports are high and inventory is at a peak, and there are concerns about price drops, for long - position inventory, it is recommended to short log futures (lg2507) at a 25% hedging ratio, with an entry range of 800 - 785. Also, buy put options (lg2507P775) at a 50% hedging ratio with an entry range of 9.5 - 14 and sell call options (lg2507C800) at a 50% hedging ratio with an entry range of 4.5 - 7.5 to lock in profits and cover production costs [2]. Procurement Management - When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is to be done based on orders, for short - position inventory, it is recommended to buy log futures (lg2507) at a 50% hedging ratio, with an entry range of 750 - 800. Sell put options (lg2507P750) at a 75% hedging ratio with an entry range of 5.5 - 12 to prevent cost increases due to price hikes and lock in the purchase price [2]. Market Conditions of Contracts - The 09 contract increased its positions by 1758 lots, dropped 1.2%, and broke through support levels, but its total open interest is still less than 10,000 lots, indicating weak liquidity and poor market - taking ability. The 07 contract reduced its positions by 829 lots, dropping 0.98%. The main contract will gradually shift to the 09 contract this month, and attention should be paid to the monthly spread changes brought about by the position - shifting [3]. Supply and Demand - In the 22nd week, 11 vessels of New Zealand logs are expected to arrive at 18 ports, 2 more than last week, a week - on - week increase of 22%. The total arrival volume is about 372,000 cubic meters, 33,000 cubic meters more than last week, a week - on - week increase of 10%. There is currently no sign of a decrease in arrivals. The ex - works price in May was 110 US dollars, with brisk transactions, and it is expected that arrivals will remain high. June - July is the off - season for downstream consumption, and there is expected to be some pressure on the outbound volume. The latest ex - works price is 110 - 112 US dollars, a 2 - dollar increase from the previous period. There are no signs of a weakening in foreign quotes. Traders' losses have not been recovered, and they have the intention to jointly support prices. The futures price is at a discount, and there is no profit in selling for hedging, so there is no strong motivation to sell on the futures market [4]. Factors Affecting the Market Bullish Factors - Traders have the intention to jointly support prices due to continuous import losses, macro - policy efforts, and an overall improvement in commodity sentiment [7]. Bearish Factors - Demand is weaker than expected, and the goods movement is slow. There will be an increase in subsequent shipments [7]. Price and Data Overview - The report provides price data for various types of logs at different ports, including 3.9m medium (3.8A) logs at Rizhao Port, 4m medium (3.8A) logs at Taicang Port, etc., along with the calculation method for the basis [8]. - It also presents a comprehensive overview of log data, such as radiation pine imports, port inventories in different regions, daily average outbound volumes at ports, import profits of radiation pine and spruce, and prices of major spot logs [9].

证券代码：603093 证券简称：南华期货 公告编号：2025-033 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 重要内容提示： ? 南华期货股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）股票于 2025 年 5 月 30 日、 据《上海证券交易所交易规则》的相关规定，属于股票交易异常波动情形。 ? 经公司自查并书面问询公司控股股东、实际控制人，截止本公告披露日， 不存在应披露而未披露的重大信息。 ? 请广大投资者注意投资风险，理性决策，审慎投资。 一、股票交易异常波动的具体情况 公司股票于 2025 年 5 月 30 日、6 月 3 日、6 月 4 日连续三个交易日内日收 盘价格涨幅偏离值累计达到 20%，根据《上海证券交易所交易规则》的相关规定， 属于股票交易异常波动情形。 三、相关风险提示 二、公司关注并核实的相关情况 根据上海证券交易所相关规定，公司对相关问题进行了必要核实。现说明如 下： （一）生产经营情况 经公司自查，公司目前日常经营活动正常，主营业务未发生变化，市场环境、 行业政策没有发生重大调整，无影响股价的重大 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View - The stock index has risen for two consecutive days, but the trading volume in the two markets has not significantly increased, and the basis of index futures has not changed much. Compared with last Friday, the discount has deepened, so market sentiment has not significantly improved. The overseas tariff war continues, and there are many uncertainties in the external environment, which suppresses the A-share market. It is expected that a continuous upward trend is difficult to form. The Lujiazui Forum will be held from June 18th to 19th, and several financial policies will be released. The expectation of policy benefits provides some support for the index, and the downside space is limited. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate within a range. A breakthrough requires a more definite change in the external environment or the implementation of the next round of domestic favorable policies [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - The stock index closed higher today. Taking the CSI 300 Index as an example, it rose 0.43% at the close. In terms of capital, the trading volume in the two markets increased by 1.16 billion yuan. Index futures rose with shrinking volume [4] Important Information - The US side claimed that China violated the consensus reached at the Geneva talks. The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian stated that the Chinese Ministry of Commerce spokesperson had previously clarified China's solemn position. The Geneva consensus was reached by China and the US under the principles of mutual respect and equal consultation. - US President Trump announced that the tariffs on imported steel, aluminum and their derivative products would be raised from 25% to 50%, effective at 00:01 on June 4, 2025, Eastern Time. The tariffs on steel and aluminum imported from the UK will remain at 25% [5] Strategy Recommendation - Hold positions and wait and see [7] Index Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | 0.41 | 0.16 | 0.76 | 0.82 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 6.9824 | 3.1907 | 5.809 | 15.1505 | | Trading volume change compared to the previous day (10,000 lots) | -0.5368 | -0.8162 | -1.129 | -1.2982 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 22.9448 | 7.8806 | 20.6376 | 31.5489 | | Open interest change compared to the previous day (10,000 lots) | -0.6744 | -0.3071 | -0.7279 | -0.5633 | [8] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | 0.42 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | 0.87 | | Ratio of rising stocks to falling stocks | 3.20 | | Trading volume in the two markets (100 million yuan) | 11530.47 | | Trading volume change compared to the previous day (100 million yuan) | 116.38 | [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Today, polyethylene followed the rise of coking coal, but its own fundamentals changed little. On the supply side, PE plants are in the peak maintenance season, with a marginal decrease in supply. However, due to the large number of new plant startups at the beginning of the year, production is still significantly higher than the same period in previous years. On the demand side, the low - profit environment suppresses the operating rate, and the agricultural film is in the off - season of production and sales, resulting in weak demand [2] - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include PE plants entering the seasonal maintenance period, which is expected to last until July, and the current futures price being at a relatively low level with limited downward space. Negative factors include the planned startups of multiple HDPE plants in the middle of the year and the reduction in domestic demand due to the off - season of downstream production and sales and the low - profit environment [3][4][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polyethylene Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for polyethylene is 6900 - 7200 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.89% and a historical percentile of 36.3% over the past 3 years [1] Polyethylene Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management (High finished - product inventory, worried about price decline)**: For the long - position in the spot market, it is recommended to short L2509 plastic futures with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 7100 - 7150 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs. Also, sell L2509C7200 call options with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 70 - 120 to collect premiums and reduce costs, and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [1] - **Procurement Management (Low regular inventory, want to purchase according to orders)**: For the short - position in the spot market, it is recommended to buy L2509 plastic futures with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 6900 - 7000 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs in advance. Also, sell L2509P6900 put options with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 100 - 130 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot purchase price if the price falls [1] Polyethylene Daily Data Futures Prices and Spreads - The plastic main - contract basis on June 4, 2025, was 116 yuan/ton, showing a daily change of - 86 yuan/ton and a weekly change of - 77 yuan/ton. The prices of L01, L05, and L09 contracts were 7018, 7000, and 7049 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 82, 65, and 86 yuan/ton and weekly increases of 39, 14, and 42 yuan/ton [5] - The L1 - 5, L5 - 9, and L9 - 1 month - spreads were 18, - 49, and - 31 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding daily changes of 17, - 21, and - 4 yuan/ton and weekly changes of 25, - 28, and - 3 yuan/ton. The L - P spread was 101 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 22 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 10 yuan/ton [5] Spot Prices and Regional Spreads - On June 4, 2025, the spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 7030, 7160, and 7170 yuan/ton respectively. The daily changes were 0, - 30, and 0 yuan/ton, and the weekly changes were - 100, - 110, and - 110 yuan/ton [7] - The East China - North China and East China - South China regional spreads were 130 and - 10 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of - 30 and - 30 yuan/ton and weekly changes of - 10 and 0 yuan/ton [7] Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads - The spreads between HDPE film, HDPE hollow, HDPE injection, HDPE drawing, HDPE pipe, LDPE film, and LLDPE film had different values and changes. For example, the HDPE film - LLDPE film spread was 510 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of - 5 yuan/ton [7] Upstream Prices and Processing Profits - The Brent crude oil price was 66 dollars/barrel, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly increase of 2.06 dollars/barrel. The US ethane price was 0.225 dollars/gallon, with a daily increase of 0.0002 dollars/gallon and a weekly decrease of 0.0231 dollars/gallon [7] - The Northwest coal price was 475 yuan/ton with no change, and the East China methanol price was 2355 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 35 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 60 yuan/ton [7] - The oil - based PE profit was - (not provided), with a daily decrease of 95.8048 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 283.2918 yuan/ton. The coal - based PE profit was 716 yuan/ton, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 35 yuan/ton [7] - The profit from purchasing methanol externally to produce PE was 270 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 30 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 205 yuan/ton. The profit from purchasing ethane externally to produce PE was 1682 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.8709 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 209.1997 yuan/ton [7] - The profit from purchasing ethylene externally to produce PE was - (not provided) previously, with a daily increase of 191.8836 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 163.8362 yuan/ton [7]

南华期货股份有限公司: 本公司于205年 6 月 Y 日收到贵司发出的《南华期货股份有限 公司股票交易异常波动问询函》,经认真自查核实,现就相关情况回 复如下: 南华期货股份有限公司: 本会已于205年 6月 十日收到贵司发出的《南华期货股份有限 公司股票交易异常波动问询函》,经认真自查核实,现就相关情况回 复如下: 截至本函发出之时,作为南华期货股份有限公司(以下简称"南 华期货")的实际控制人,除贵公司已披露事项外,不存在影响南华 期货股票交易异常波动的重大事项,不存在其他涉及南华期货应披露 而未披露的重大信息,不存在股票交易异常波动期间买卖南华期货股 票的情形。 特此回复。 实际控制人:东阳市 联合会 2075 关于对《南华期货股份有限公司股票交易 异常波动问询函》的回复 关于对《南华期货股份有限公司股票交易 异常波动问询函》的回复 截至本函发出之时,作为南华期货股份有限公司（以下简称"南 华期货")的控股股东,除贵公司已披露事项外,不存在影响南华期 货股票交易异常波动的重大事项,不存在其他涉及南华期货应披露而 未披露的重大信息,不存在股票交易异常波动期间买卖南华期货股票 的情形。 特此回复 控股股东: ...

本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 重要内容提示： 南华期货股份有限公司股票交易异常波动公告 南华期货股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）股票于 2025 年 5 月 30 日、 6 月 3 日、6 月 4 日连续三个交易日内日收盘价格涨幅偏离值累计达到 20%，根 据《上海证券交易所交易规则》的相关规定，属于股票交易异常波动情形。 证券代码：603093 证券简称：南华期货 公告编号：2025-033 经公司自查并书面问询公司控股股东、实际控制人，截止本公告披露日， 不存在应披露而未披露的重大信息。 二、公司关注并核实的相关情况 根据上海证券交易所相关规定，公司对相关问题进行了必要核实。现说明如 下： （一）生产经营情况 经公司自查，公司目前日常经营活动正常，主营业务未发生变化，市场环境、 行业政策没有发生重大调整，无影响股价的重大经营事项。 （二）重大事项情况 经公司自查，并向公司控股股东及实际控制人函证核实：截至本公告披露日， 除了在指定媒体上已公开披露的信息外，公司不存在其他影响公司股票交易价格 异常波动 ...

Core Viewpoint - The coal futures market in China is experiencing a bullish trend, particularly in coking coal, with prices showing a significant increase amid fluctuating supply and demand dynamics [1][2]. Supply Analysis - Overseas supply of coking coal at the China-Mongolia border has increased seasonally, but trade volumes remain low, leading to high inventory levels [1] - Domestic coal mines are gradually resuming operations, with an increase in the operating rate and capacity utilization of 110 washing plants, resulting in a more relaxed overall supply of coking coal [1] - The cost-effectiveness of imported Australian coal has diminished, leading to a decrease in import volumes [1] Demand Analysis - Steel mills are seeking profits from upstream coking coal producers, but the second round of price reductions for coke has begun, indicating weakening demand [1] - The overall demand for coking coal is under pressure, with expectations of a decline in terminal demand impacting the market [2] - The anticipated peak in iron and steel production has led to a negative feedback loop in the black chain, further weakening demand for coking coal [1][2] Market Sentiment and Recommendations - Current market sentiment is influenced by political changes in Mongolia, which may lead to short-term price rebounds in coking coal [1] - Analysts suggest a bearish outlook for coking coal, recommending traders to consider short positions during price rebounds, with specific resistance levels identified for coking coal and coke futures [2]

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View - The latest manufacturing PMI in May remained below 50, indicating the impact of tariffs on the domestic economy, but China's economic resilience is strong. Overseas, the US-EU tariff war has escalated, and there is still significant uncertainty in China-US tariff negotiations, which suppresses the A-share market. The upcoming Lujiazui Forum is expected to release financial policies, providing some support to the index. In the short term, the index faces both upward pressure and downward support, and a breakthrough requires external certainties or new domestic favorable policies. The recommended strategy is to hold positions and wait and see [6] Market Review - The stock index opened lower and closed higher today. Taking the CSI 300 index as an example, it closed up 0.31%. The trading volume of the two markets increased by 2231 million yuan. All stock index futures rose with increased volume [4] Important Information - In May, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month; the non-manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage points; the composite PMI was 50.4%, up 0.2 percentage points. The new export order index and import index increased by 2.8 and 3.7 percentage points respectively, and the foreign trade situation of some US-related enterprises improved [5] - US President Trump announced raising the import steel tariff from 25% to 50% starting from June 4. The EU is in the final consultation on expanding countermeasures, and if no solution is reached, existing and additional measures will take effect on July 14 or earlier [5] - The US Trade Representative's Office extended the exemption period for the 301 investigation on China from May 31 to August 31 [5] Index Futures Data Futures Market | Index | Main Contract Intraday Change (%) | Trading Volume (10,000 lots) | Trading Volume MoM (10,000 lots) | Open Interest (10,000 lots) | Open Interest MoM (10,000 lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF | 0.11 | 7.5192 | -1.3852 | 23.6192 | 0.5468 | | IH | 0.05 | 4.0069 | -0.9296 | 8.1877 | 0.1863 | | IC | 0.33 | 6.938 | -0.909 | 21.3655 | 0.6257 | | IM | 0.68 | 16.4487 | -2.3121 | 32.1122 | 0.3188 | [7] Spot Market | Indicator | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index Change (%) | 0.43 | | Shenzhen Component Index Change (%) | 0.16 | | Ratio of Rising to Falling Stocks | 1.90 | | Trading Volume of the Two Markets (100 million yuan) | 11414.09 | | Trading Volume MoM (100 million yuan) | 22.31 | [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - Glass: If glass prices remain low, attention should be paid to the increase in cold repair expectations. Although glass valuation is relatively low, short - term fundamentals and cost support are weak [3]. -纯碱: The pressure on the futures market continues. Newly invested production capacity may gradually release output, and maintenance has not provided short - term support. With the cost decline, there is still profit in the industrial chain. It should be treated bearishly, and for the continuous downward momentum of the soda ash price, soda ash plants need to further reduce prices [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Volatility - Glass price monthly forecast is in the range of 900 - 1200, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 27.74% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 46.0% [2]. - Soda ash price monthly forecast is in the range of 1100 - 1350, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 24.40% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 26.3% [2]. 3.2 Hedging Strategies - For glass inventory management: When the glass inventory is high and there is a concern about price decline, 50% of FG2509 can be sold at 1100; 50% of FG509 C1200 can be sold at 20 - 30 to collect option premiums and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [2]. - For soda ash inventory management: When the soda ash inventory is high and there is a concern about price decline, 50% of SA2509 can be sold at 1300; 50% of SA509 C1300 can be sold at 30 - 40 to collect option premiums and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [2]. 3.3 Market Analysis 3.3.1 Core Contradictions - Glass: The industrial chain faces overcapacity pressure in the future; it is in the off - season of demand with weak expectations, but no new cold repair expectations have been triggered [3]. - Soda ash: There is a consistent expectation of overcapacity, and there are still new production capacities to be put into operation in the long - term; the cost is continuously decreasing, and there is still profit in the industrial chain [3]. 3.3.2 Bullish Factors - Glass: The supply remains in a low - level fluctuation state; the futures price is approaching the full - industrial - chain loss state, and the cold repair expectation will increase at low prices [3]. - Soda ash: Factory maintenance from May to June has been gradually implemented; export is better than expected, alleviating the domestic overcapacity pressure [3]. 3.3.3 Bearish Factors - Glass: There is still an expectation of furnace ignition on the supply side, and no large - scale cold repair is expected; the actual demand is weak; the overall social inventory is high, and the off - season is coming [3]. - Soda ash: New production capacities continue to be put into operation; the social inventory is at an absolute historical high; there is still profit in the industrial chain [3]. 3.4 Price and Spread Data 3.4.1 Glass - On June 3, 2025, the price of glass 05 contract was 1069, down 27 (-2.46%) from May 30; the price of 09 contract was 954, down 28 (-2.85%); the price of 01 contract was 1014, down 29 (-2.78%) [3][5]. - The 5 - 9 month spread was 115, up 1; the 9 - 1 month spread was - 60, up 1; the 1 - 5 month spread was - 55, down 2 [5]. - The 05 contract basis in Shahe was 62, unchanged; the 09 contract basis in Hubei was 86, up 28 [5]. - The average price of Shahe delivery products was 1130.8, unchanged. The prices in some regions decreased, such as - 20 in North China, - 10 in Northeast China, etc. [6]. 3.4.2 Soda Ash - On June 3, 2025, the price of soda ash 05 contract was 1221, down 18 (-1.45%) from May 30; the price of 09 contract was 1185, down 14 (-1.17%); the price of 01 contract was 1175, down 17 (-1.43%) [7]. - The 5 - 9 month spread was 36, down 4 (-10%); the 9 - 1 month spread was 10, up 3 (42.86%); the 1 - 5 month spread was - 46, up 1 (-2.13%) [7]. - The Shahe heavy - alkali basis was 50, up 10; the Qinghai heavy - alkali basis was - 105, down 6 [7]. - The heavy - alkali market prices in some regions decreased, such as - 50 in North China, - 20 in East China, etc. [7].