Core Viewpoint - Huayou Cobalt experienced a decline of 1.46% on January 20, with a trading volume of 4.058 billion yuan, indicating a significant market activity and investor interest in the stock [1]. Financing Summary - On January 20, Huayou Cobalt had a financing buy amount of 478 million yuan and a repayment of 386 million yuan, resulting in a net financing purchase of approximately 91.85 million yuan [1]. - The total financing and securities lending balance for Huayou Cobalt reached 4.219 billion yuan as of January 20, with the financing balance accounting for 2.98% of the circulating market value, which is above the 70th percentile of the past year [1]. - In terms of securities lending, 5,400 shares were repaid and 8,600 shares were sold on January 20, with a selling amount of approximately 645,300 yuan, indicating a high level of activity in this area as well [1]. Company Performance - As of September 30, Huayou Cobalt had 257,100 shareholders, an increase of 31.78% from the previous period, while the average circulating shares per person decreased by 15.22% to 7,328 shares [2]. - For the period from January to September 2025, Huayou Cobalt reported a revenue of 58.941 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 29.57%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.216 billion yuan, which is a 39.59% increase year-on-year [2]. Dividend Information - Since its A-share listing, Huayou Cobalt has distributed a total of 3.876 billion yuan in dividends, with 2.835 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Institutional Holdings - As of September 30, 2025, among the top ten circulating shareholders of Huayou Cobalt, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited is the second-largest shareholder with 148 million shares, a decrease of 1.6723 million shares from the previous period [3]. - Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF is the fourth-largest shareholder with 23.4121 million shares, down by 843,100 shares, while E Fund CSI 300 ETF increased its holdings by 840,100 shares to 18.1417 million shares [3]. - New institutional shareholders include GF National Index New Energy Vehicle Battery ETF with 16.4181 million shares and Southern CSI Shenwan Nonferrous Metals ETF with 11.9549 million shares [3].

Precious Metals Industry - Central banks worldwide are increasing their gold reserves to diversify risk, with China's central bank having increased its gold holdings for 14 consecutive months [1] - The global monetary easing expectations are rising, leading to a weaker dollar, which enhances the attractiveness of precious and non-ferrous metals priced in dollars [1] - The market for precious metals is expected to experience a broad rally starting in early 2026, characterized by a resonance between financial and industrial attributes [1] - Key players in the precious metals sector include Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, and Guoyuan Platinum, all of which are focusing on optimizing production and expanding operations [3] Non-Ferrous Metals Industry - The demand for non-ferrous metals such as silver, copper, and aluminum is growing due to the rigid requirements from emerging industries like photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and AI servers [1] - The market dynamics for non-ferrous metals are changing, driven by both traditional infrastructure demand and new energy sectors [1] - Major companies in the non-ferrous metals sector include Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, Huayou Cobalt, and Tin Industry Co., which are involved in mining, refining, and processing of various metals [4]

Core Viewpoint - Several listed companies in the non-ferrous metals industry have released optimistic performance forecasts for 2025, driven by product price increases and production growth, reflecting a positive outlook for the sector [1][2][4]. Group 1: Company Performance Forecasts - Zijin Mining Group expects a net profit of 51 billion to 52 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 59% to 62%, supported by increased production and sales prices of gold, copper, and silver [1]. - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining anticipates a net profit of 3 billion to 3.2 billion yuan for 2025, representing a growth of 70% to 81%, with gold production expected to be approximately 14.4 tons and sales prices rising by about 49% [2]. - Northern Rare Earth forecasts a net profit of 2.176 billion to 2.356 billion yuan for 2025, a significant increase of 116.67% to 134.60%, driven by new technologies and products [2]. - Jinchuan Magnetics expects a net profit of 660 million to 760 million yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 127% to 161%, attributed to record high product sales in various applications [2]. - Xianglu Tungsten Industry predicts a net profit of 125 million to 180 million yuan for 2025, marking a turnaround from losses, supported by rising tungsten prices and increased sales orders [3]. - Huayou Cobalt anticipates a net profit of 5.85 billion to 6.45 billion yuan for 2025, a growth of 40.80% to 55.24%, benefiting from improved production and cost management [3]. - Luoyang Molybdenum expects a net profit of 20 billion to 20.8 billion yuan for 2025, with a growth of 47.80% to 53.71%, driven by increased production and effective cost control [4]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The positive performance forecasts are attributed to multiple factors, including government policy support, improved supply-demand dynamics, and strategic upgrades by companies [4]. - Emerging sectors such as new energy vehicles, power batteries, energy storage, and artificial intelligence are expected to drive sustained demand for non-ferrous metals, particularly lithium, nickel, rare earths, and tungsten [4].

Core Viewpoint - The energy metals sector experienced a slight increase of 0.44% on January 20, with significant contributions from companies like BQX New Materials, while the overall market indices showed minor declines [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4113.65, down 0.01%, and the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14155.63, down 0.97% [1]. - BQX New Materials led the energy metals sector with a closing price of 73.99, reflecting a rise of 6.77% [1]. - Other notable performers included Zangge Mining, which rose by 1.61% to 91.45, and Tianqi Lithium, which increased by 1.50% to 59.49 [1]. Group 2: Trading Volume and Value - BQX New Materials had a trading volume of 283,400 shares, resulting in a transaction value of 2.103 billion yuan [1]. - Tianqi Lithium recorded a trading volume of 485,000 shares with a transaction value of 2.862 billion yuan [1]. - The total trading volume and values for other companies in the sector varied, with Shengton Mining and Ganfeng Lithium also showing significant transaction values of 2.556 billion yuan and 3.803 billion yuan, respectively [1]. Group 3: Capital Flow - The energy metals sector saw a net outflow of 521 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 193 million yuan [2]. - The sector's capital flow indicated that speculative funds had a net inflow of 328 million yuan [2]. - Specific companies like Shengxin Lithium and Tianqi Lithium experienced varied capital flows, with Shengxin Lithium seeing a net inflow of 14 million yuan from institutional investors [3].

Core Viewpoint - The CEO of Vale Indonesia expressed concerns about the company's ability to meet mining production quotas, which are currently only 30% of the requested amount, potentially impacting the supply to downstream smelting projects [1][2]. Group 1: Mining Production Quotas - Vale Indonesia has received only about 30% of the mining production quota it applied for, raising concerns about fulfilling commitments to downstream smelting projects [1]. - The company is urging the government to revise the annual work plan and budget to increase mining quotas [1]. Group 2: Downstream Projects - Vale Indonesia is collaborating with several international companies to advance multiple nickel smelting projects using High-Pressure Acid Leaching (HPAL) technology, primarily targeting the electric vehicle battery materials market [1]. - The HPAL project in Southeast Sulawesi, developed in partnership with Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt and Ford Motor Company, is expected to complete mechanical construction by August, with a design capacity of 120,000 tons of Mixed Hydroxide Precipitate (MHP) annually, requiring approximately 21 million tons of nickel ore each year [1]. - The Morowali project in Central Sulawesi, developed with GEM Hong Kong and Ecopro, is expected to start operations in the fourth quarter, with an annual production of about 60,000 tons of MHP, needing around 5.5 million tons of limonite nickel ore and 10.4 million tons of saprolite nickel ore [2]. Group 3: Business Stability and Future Projections - The existing operations of Vale Indonesia are reported to be stable, with a projected high nickel production target of 71,234 tons for 2025, of which 66,848 tons have been completed by November 2025 [2]. - As multiple nickel smelting and battery material projects are set to commence around 2026, the coordination between mining quotas and downstream processing capabilities is becoming increasingly critical [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the steel industry and a "Positive" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, with "Buy" ratings for specific companies including Luoyang Molybdenum, Zhongjin Gold, Huayou Cobalt, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum [7][8]. Core Insights - The geopolitical situation continues to create volatility, but gold prices are expected to remain supported due to ongoing tensions [3][52]. - The steel industry is anticipated to see improved profitability due to the implementation of growth policies and an optimistic demand outlook in sectors like shipbuilding and construction [4][5]. - The copper market is expected to tighten due to supply constraints from major mines, while demand is projected to increase in sectors such as electric power grids and new energy vehicles [4][41]. - The aluminum sector faces challenges with oversupply in alumina and potential short-term price corrections, but the demand from the new energy vehicle sector remains a key focus [4][48]. - The rare earth industry is expected to see a revaluation of related companies due to China's export controls and the strategic importance of rare earth resources [7][4]. Summary by Sections Steel Industry - Current steel mill inventory pressure is not significant, and short-term demand decline is limited, with expectations of price support before the Spring Festival [5][19]. - As of January 16, 2026, the total steel inventory was 12.4955 million tons, a decrease of 0.39% from the previous week, but an increase of 7.72% year-on-year [26][27]. - The comprehensive price index for steel on January 16, 2026, was 3,457.46 CNY/ton, reflecting a 0.15% increase from the previous week [39][40]. Copper Industry - The copper market is facing a lack of driving force for price increases, but expectations for 2026 remain positive due to anticipated demand growth [3][41]. - As of January 16, 2026, LME copper prices were 13,000 USD/ton, with SHFE copper prices at 101,900 CNY/ton, showing a slight decrease in LME prices but an increase in SHFE prices [46]. Aluminum Industry - The aluminum processing sector is currently in a contraction phase, with a PMI of 42.4% as of December 2025 [48]. - The average price of alumina on January 16, 2026, was 2,666 CNY/ton, down 1.00% from the previous week [49]. Precious Metals - The geopolitical landscape and mixed economic data from the U.S. are influencing gold prices, which are expected to remain supported [52]. - As of January 16, 2026, COMEX gold prices were 4,601.10 USD/oz, reflecting a 1.83% increase from the previous week [53].

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a collective pullback in major indices, with significant declines in copper and gold prices, while emerging sectors like AI data centers are driving long-term demand for non-ferrous metals [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 20, 2026, major indices have collectively retreated, with copper prices experiencing a sharp drop and gold prices slightly declining [1]. - Gold ETFs, such as Huaxia (518850), fell by 0.2%, while the gold stock ETF (159562) decreased by 2.31%, and the non-ferrous metal ETF fund (516650) dropped by 2.34% [1]. - The trading volume was active, with a turnover of 216 million yuan and a turnover rate of 1.49%, indicating potential fund accumulation [1]. Group 2: Fund Flows and Demand Drivers - Non-ferrous metal ETFs have seen continuous net inflows over the past 18 days, totaling 10.774 billion yuan [1]. - Emerging fields like AI data centers are becoming core demand drivers for non-ferrous metals, with significant reliance on copper and aluminum for power and cooling systems [1]. - The demand for copper and aluminum is expected to be supported in the long term due to "AI capital expenditure growth" and global energy transition trends [1]. Group 3: Industrial Product Price Dynamics - According to Dongfang Securities, market expectations for short-term interest rate cuts have been dampened following statements from Trump, leading to weakened financial support for industrial product prices [2]. - Increased domestic inventory and lower downstream processing rates have contributed to negative feedback for major industrial products like copper and aluminum [2]. - Despite short-term volatility, strong support for industrial products is anticipated due to internal and external policy expectations, with some inventories at historically low levels [2]. Group 4: ETF Index Composition - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Non-ferrous Metal Industry Theme Index (000811) include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, and others, collectively accounting for 52.98% of the index [2].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is entering a new cyclical growth phase in 2026, characterized by strong demand recovery, accelerated global expansion, and disruptive technological iterations, leading to a "spiral rise" in both quantity and price [3]. Group 1: Market Outlook - Global lithium battery production is projected to reach 2250 GWh by 2025, with a growth rate of 30% in 2026, and the energy storage sector is expected to grow at an impressive rate of 48.3% [5]. - The demand surge is expected to significantly impact the supply of battery cells and four major upstream materials, highlighting a potential supply gap in the future [5]. Group 2: Conference Details - The 2026 Lithium Key Materials and Application Market Summit will be held on March 19-20, 2026, in Changzhou, Jiangsu, organized by Xinluo Information [4]. - The summit will focus on three core topics: in-depth discussions on cutting-edge technologies and market supply-demand dynamics, the announcement of the "Top Ten Lithium Material Brands of 2025," and B2B procurement matchmaking [5][6][7]. Group 3: Key Topics and Speakers - The main forum will cover topics such as the outlook for lithium ore resource supply, operational strategies for lithium carbonate in the current market environment, and advancements in high-energy-density power battery technology [9]. - Sub-forums will address the current status and development trends of key materials for power batteries, solid-state battery industry trends, and the optimization of revenue structures for energy storage projects under policy empowerment [11].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Everbright Securities highlights the increasing importance of strategic metals (copper, aluminum, cobalt, nickel, tin, antimony, tungsten, rare earths) due to supply disruptions and the limitations in production capacity in China and abroad [1][2]. Group 1: Strategic Metal Storage Initiatives - Australia announced a strategic reserve plan for critical minerals worth AUD 1.2 billion, with AUD 185 million allocated for necessary mineral reserves, prioritizing antimony, gallium, and rare earths [2] - The European Commission approved a resource revival action plan to raise EUR 3 billion for supply chain strategies, establishing a platform to support critical material reserves [2] - The U.S. Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) plans to procure USD 500 million in cobalt, USD 245 million in antimony, USD 100 million in tantalum, and USD 45 million in scandium [2] Group 2: Investment Opportunities in Strategic Metals - The focus on strategic metal storage in the U.S. and Australia presents significant investment opportunities, particularly in metals with concentrated supply chains and security risks, such as cobalt from the Democratic Republic of Congo and lithium from South America [3] - The rapid development of AI and energy transition is expected to drive demand for copper, aluminum, and tin, although supply constraints exist for these metals [4] - Military-related metals like tungsten, antimony, and rare earths are facing tightening supply, with production declines attributed to lower resource grades and regulatory controls [5] Group 3: Supply Concentration and Constraints - Copper, lithium, cobalt, and nickel supply is highly concentrated in South America, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Indonesia, with Chile and Peru accounting for 35% of global copper production and the Democratic Republic of Congo producing 76% of global cobalt [4] - The rapid growth of AI is expected to significantly increase demand for copper, aluminum, and tin, but supply for these metals is constrained [4] - Tungsten, antimony, and rare earths are critical for military applications, but their production has decreased due to resource management practices and regulatory measures [5] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - For copper, recommended companies include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining [5] - For aluminum, Yunnan Aluminum is recommended, with China Aluminum as a focus [5] - For cobalt and nickel, Huayou Cobalt is recommended, with attention to Liqin Resources and Shengtun Mining [5] - For tungsten, focus on China Tungsten High-tech [5] - For tin, Xiyang Tin Industry is recommended, with interest in Xingye Silver Tin [5] - For antimony, Huaxi Nonferrous is highlighted, and for rare earths, Northern Rare Earth is recommended with a focus on China Rare Earth [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights the renewed focus on strategic metal reserves by countries like Australia, the EU, and the US, indicating a significant increase in the importance of "critical mineral resources" since 2025 [2][3]. - The strategic metal storage initiatives are expected to create investment opportunities, particularly in metals with concentrated supply chains and those essential for AI and energy transition [2][3]. Summary by Sections Strategic Metal Storage Initiatives - Australia announced a AUD 1.2 billion strategic reserve plan for critical minerals, prioritizing antimony, gallium, and rare earths [1]. - The EU plans to raise EUR 3 billion for a supply chain strategy, establishing a platform for critical materials [1]. - The US plans to procure USD 500 million of cobalt, USD 245 million of antimony, USD 100 million of tantalum, and USD 45 million of scandium [1]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies investment opportunities in metals with high supply concentration and security risks, such as cobalt from the Democratic Republic of Congo, copper and lithium from South America, and nickel from Indonesia [2]. - It emphasizes the demand for copper, aluminum, and tin driven by AI and energy transition, while noting supply constraints for these metals [3]. - Military-related metals like tungsten, antimony, and rare earths are highlighted as having tight supply, with significant applications in defense [3]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their strategic positioning in the metals market: - Copper: Zijin Mining, Western Mining, and Luoyang Molybdenum [4]. - Aluminum: Yunnan Aluminum and China Aluminum [4]. - Cobalt and Nickel: Huayou Cobalt and others [4]. - Tungsten: China Tungsten High-Tech [4]. - Tin: Xiyang Tin and others [4]. - Antimony: Huaxi Nonferrous [4]. - Rare Earths: Northern Rare Earth and others [4].