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申万宏源:春节前反弹是 A 股胜率最高的日历特征之一
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-12-22 00:31
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the global monetary policy environment is expected to stabilize, with the Bank of Japan's dovish rate hike and the Federal Reserve's non-hawkish rate cut influencing market expectations [1] - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points, aligning with expectations, while the future pace and timing of rate hikes will depend on inflation and economic developments [1] - The U.S. midterm elections year is anticipated to see a return of both monetary and fiscal easing, which may dominate asset pricing expectations [1] Group 2 - In the spring, liquidity in the stock market remains ample, with high-net-worth investors reallocating to private equity amid market corrections [3] - The insurance sector is expected to perform well, with both large and small insurance premiums anticipated to show strong growth [3] - Significant net subscriptions have been observed in the CSI 300 and A500 ETFs, indicating increased investor interest [3] Group 3 - There are multiple windows for stabilizing capital market expectations from February to April, including the Spring Festival, the Two Sessions in March, and a potential visit from Trump in April [6] - The main assets in the spring are expected to face upward resistance, with market styles reverting to pre-October conditions, limiting upward potential [6] - The spring market may initially see activity in non-mainstream sectors, focusing on industrial and policy themes, high dividend plays, and various rebound opportunities [6] Group 4 - The medium-term outlook remains a "two-stage bull market," with the first stage (2025) at a high level and the second stage (2026) expected to be driven by fundamental improvements and technological trends [7] - The first half of 2026 is predicted to favor cyclical and value styles, while the second half is expected to see a comprehensive bull market led by technology and advanced manufacturing [7] - The spring market is likely to see initial activity in non-mainstream sectors, with policy and industrial themes being the main sources of profit [8]
关于申万菱信天添利货币基金变更快速取现业务协议的公告
Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao - Zhong Zheng Wang· 2025-12-21 23:21
Group 1 - The core point of the announcement is the change of management for the Shenwan Hongyuan Tian Tian Li Money Market Fund, which will be managed by Shenwan Lixin Fund Management Co., Ltd. starting from December 22, 2025 [44][46] - The original asset management plan will be transformed into a public fund, specifically the Shenwan Lixin Tian Tian Li Money Market Fund [44][46] - Investors who have signed the previous quick cash service agreement will have their rights and obligations transferred to the new fund management company without needing to sign a new agreement [44][47] Group 2 - The quick cash service allows investors to apply for immediate cash withdrawal by transferring their fund shares to the service institution, which will then pay the corresponding amount to the investors [6][7] - The service will operate during specific trading hours, and the management and service institutions can adjust these hours as needed [7][8] - The minimum withdrawal amount for the quick cash service is set at 1,000 yuan, and any amount exceeding this must be in whole yuan increments [10] Group 3 - The fund will not charge any fees for the quick cash service initially, but the management and service institutions reserve the right to adjust this in the future [9][10] - The fund's contract and related legal documents will be available on the management company's website for investor review [46][49] - Investors must be aware that the quick cash service is not a mandatory obligation and can be adjusted based on market conditions [2][11]
告别低通胀、AI接力新需求叙事,改革红利提振消费率......十大券商一文展望2026中国经济
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-12-21 01:13
Core Viewpoint - The year 2026 is projected to be a turning point for China's economy, moving away from low inflation and establishing a "new equilibrium" as per the consensus among major securities firms [1]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Growth and Price Recovery - Major securities firms, including China Merchants, Ping An, and West Securities, agree that the Chinese economy will emerge from the low inflation phase, with expectations of nominal GDP growth recovery driven by price factor improvements [1][5]. - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to limit supply, combined with the pig cycle bottoming out and PPI turning positive, which will be key in improving corporate profitability and nominal GDP [1][5][6]. Group 2: Structural Transition and New Growth Drivers - 2026 is seen as a critical juncture for the transition between old and new growth drivers, with real estate investment entering a bottoming phase while AI, data center energy demand, and high-end manufacturing are expected to become substantial growth engines [1][5][21]. - The consensus is that the economy will experience a "new-old relay" with significant changes in investment structures, particularly in manufacturing and real estate [1][21]. Group 3: Demand-Side Drivers - There is a divergence in views regarding demand-side drivers; some firms like Minsheng and Northeast Securities believe external demand will outperform internal demand, while others like West Securities and Shenwan Hongyuan predict a shift towards internal demand dominance [1][5][21]. Group 4: Asset Allocation and Market Style Predictions - Opinions on asset allocation and market style are highly varied, with Haitong International being the most optimistic, predicting a 40% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index based on "value re-evaluation" logic [2][50]. - China Merchants Securities anticipates a shift from "policy-driven" to "profit-driven" market dynamics, while others suggest a more balanced focus on both growth and cyclical opportunities [2][21]. Group 5: Key Predictions from Securities Firms - China Merchants Securities predicts a recovery in corporate profits and a shift in policy focus towards enhancing development quality, with manufacturing investment expected to grow by 5% and real estate investment's decline narrowing to -8% [5][10]. - Ping An Securities emphasizes the importance of price recovery, forecasting CPI to rise to 0.6% and PPI to narrow its decline significantly [16][18]. - West Securities expects nominal GDP growth to accelerate, driven by inflation recovery and the emergence of new growth forces [21][23]. Group 6: External Environment and Trade Dynamics - The external environment is expected to improve, with strong export performance contributing significantly to GDP growth, projected to be around 40%-50% from actual export growth [11][44]. - The report from Northeast Securities highlights that external demand will recover before internal demand, with exports expected to grow by approximately 7% [44][45].
科技领跑、周期接力、慢牛到全面牛……2026年A股怎么走,十大券商策略来了
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-12-20 04:57
Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is transitioning from a liquidity and valuation-driven phase to a new stage that emphasizes fundamentals and profit recovery, with a projected double-digit profit growth for the entire A-share market in 2026 [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Outlook - Most major domestic securities firms believe that the A-share market will remain in a bull market in 2026, with profit recovery being a key variable for market sustainability [1][2]. - The overall profit growth for the A-share market is expected to rise from 8.2% in 2025 to 10.3% in 2026, with the growth rate for non-financial sectors projected at 7.7% [12][64]. - The first half of 2026 is anticipated to maintain market momentum, but a significant transition may occur mid-year, particularly for sectors that have seen substantial gains [1][2][27]. Group 2: Sector Focus - The technology sector remains a consensus direction for 2026, with a shift from infrastructure investment to application and performance realization in AI, focusing on areas like robotics and smart driving [2][21]. - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to drive profit recovery in sectors such as steel, chemicals, and new energy, while resource products may present opportunities as they follow the technology sector [2][27]. - The report highlights four main areas for investment opportunities: AI, new energy, military industry, and innovative pharmaceuticals, with a focus on sectors that are expected to benefit from the "15th Five-Year Plan" [34][40][79]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The investment strategy should prioritize "manufacturing as a shield and technology as a sword," emphasizing advanced manufacturing and AI as core components [40][44]. - The report suggests a rotation in market style from growth to value, particularly around mid-2026, as the market may shift focus based on liquidity and industry trends [68][69]. - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying high-performance sectors within the "future industries" and suggests a focus on resource security and energy [79][91]. Group 4: Financial Metrics and Predictions - The overall A-share market is expected to see a significant recovery in profitability, with non-financial net profit growth projected to rebound from 6.5% in 2025 to 16.5% in 2026 [33][64]. - The report predicts that the supply-side reforms will lead to a more balanced market, with a focus on sectors that have undergone significant price recovery and demand stimulation [27][92]. - The report indicates that the current market valuation structure remains healthy, with no signs of overheating, suggesting further upward potential [80][89].
申万宏源集团股份有限公司关于申万宏源证券有限公司2025年面向专业投资者公开发行公司债券(第七期)在深圳证券交易所上市的公告
Shang Hai Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-12-19 19:25
申万宏源集团股份有限公司 特此公告。 关于申万宏源证券有限公司2025年面向专业投资者公开 发行公司债券(第七期)在深圳证券交易所上市的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整,没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗 漏。 登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 公司所属申万宏源证券有限公司2025年面向专业投资者公开发行公司债券(第七期)(以下简称"本期 债券")发行工作于2025年12月15日结束,本期债券发行规模人民币20亿元,期限2年,票面利率 1.84%。(相关情况请详见公司于2025年12月17日在《中国证券报》《证券时报》《上海证券报》和巨 潮资讯网 www.cninfo.com.cn上刊登的公告) 证券代码:000166 证券简称:申万宏源 公告编号:临2025-114 经深圳证券交易所审核,本期债券定于2025年12月19日起在深圳证券交易所上市,面向专业投资者中的 机构投资者交易,债券简称"25 申证13",债券代码为"524598"。 申万宏源集团股份有限公司董事会 二〇二五年十二月十九日 ...
申万宏源:“25申证13”12月19日起在深交所上市
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-12-19 13:31
申万宏源(000166)(06806)发布公告,公司所属申万宏源证券(000562)有限公司2025年面向专业投 资者公开发行公司债券(第七期)(以下简称"本期债券")发行工作于2025年12月15日结束,本期债券发行 规模人民币20亿元,期限2年,票面利率1.84%。经深圳证券交易所审核,本期债券定于2025年12月19 日起在深圳证券交易所上市,面向专业投资者中的机构投资者交易,债券简称"25申证13",债券代码 为"524598"。 ...
申万宏源董樑:2026年A股可能演绎成全面向上走势
Zhong Zheng Wang· 2025-12-19 12:04
Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Wealth Allocation and Asset Management Conference highlighted that structural opportunities are expected in 2025, with a potential upward trend in the A-share market supported by fundamentals and performance in 2026, particularly focusing on AI-driven technological advancements [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The A-share market may experience a comprehensive upward trend in 2026, driven by fundamental and performance support [1] - Recent important reform policies in the capital market, especially in public funds and wealth management, are expected to enhance the experience of ordinary investors [1] Group 2: Investment Directions - Three key investment directions are suggested: 1. Opportunities in AI applications driven by technological innovation, particularly in China's manufacturing sector, which has a strong capacity for technology application [1] 2. Cyclical industries, including manufacturing, are showing improved competition due to capacity contraction and stabilizing external demand, supported by "anti-involution" policies [1] 3. The potential release of consumer purchasing power presents new consumption opportunities that should be capitalized on [1]
申万宏源香港助力希迪智驾科技股份有限公司(3881.HK)成功于香港联交所主板上市
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-19 10:49
Core Viewpoint - Xidi Intelligent Driving Technology Co., Ltd. successfully went public on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on December 19, 2025, with an initial share price of HKD 263.00 and a base issuance scale of HKD 1.42 billion [1]. Company Overview - Xidi Intelligent Driving is a supplier of intelligent driving products and solutions for commercial vehicles in China, founded by Professor Li Xiangze, who has over 30 years of experience in motion control and manufacturing [2]. - The company focuses on the research and development of autonomous trucks for closed environments, V2X (Vehicle-to-Everything) technology, and intelligent perception solutions [3]. Market Position - Xidi Intelligent Driving ranks sixth among all intelligent driving commercial vehicle companies in China (including Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan), with a market share of approximately 5.2% [3]. - The company delivered the first fully autonomous electric mining truck fleet in China and ranks third in the autonomous mining truck solution market based on revenue for 2024 [3]. - Xidi is one of the first companies in China to commercialize V2X products and has developed the only train autonomous perception system (TAPS) that achieves independent safety perception for trains in the region [3]. Investment and Support - Five cornerstone investors participated in the project, accounting for approximately 38.39% of the shares offered [3]. - Shenwan Hongyuan Securities (Hong Kong) acted as the joint bookrunner and lead underwriter for the issuance, providing comprehensive financial services to support the company's listing [3].
申万宏源(06806.HK):“25申证13”12月19日起在深交所上市
Ge Long Hui· 2025-12-19 09:29
格隆汇12月19日丨申万宏源(06806.HK)发布公告,公司所属申万宏源证券有限公司2025年面向专业投资 者公开发行公司债券(第七期)发行工作于2025年12月15日结束,本期债券发行规模人民币20亿元,期限 2年,票面利率1.84%。经深交所审核,本期债券定于2025年12月19日起在深交所上市,面向专业投资 者中的机构投资者交易,债券简称"25申证13",债券代码为"524598"。 ...
申万宏源(06806):“25申证13”12月19日起在深交所上市
智通财经网· 2025-12-19 09:24
智通财经APP讯,申万宏源(06806)发布公告,公司所属申万宏源证券有限公司2025年面向专业投资者公 开发行公司债券(第七期)(以下简称"本期债券")发行工作于2025年12月15日结束,本期债券发行规模人 民币20亿元,期限2年,票面利率1.84%。经深圳证券交易所审核,本期债券定于2025年12月19日起在 深圳证券交易所上市,面向专业投资者中的机构投资者交易,债券简称"25申证13",债券代码 为"524598"。 ...