Group 1 - The chemical sector continues to show strong performance, with the chemical ETF (516020) experiencing a price increase of 0.66% as of the latest update, reflecting a peak intraday gain of 1.32% [1][2] - Key stocks in the sector, including fluorine chemicals, soda ash, lithium batteries, and synthetic resins, have seen significant gains, with companies like Duofu Duo and Hebang Biological rising over 7% [1][3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has proposed measures to expand market consumption, including optimizing tax incentives for the automotive industry and promoting electric vehicles in public sectors [1][4] Group 2 - According to CITIC Construction Investment, investment in China's lithium battery industry chain has rapidly increased, with solid-state batteries emerging as a hot investment area, indicating a significant acceleration in the industrialization process [3] - The chemical ETF (516020) is currently at a low valuation point, with a price-to-book ratio of 2.31, suggesting a favorable long-term investment opportunity [3] - Donghai Securities highlights that China's chemical industry has a competitive advantage due to cost efficiency and technological advancements, positioning it to fill gaps in the international supply chain [4] Group 3 - The chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI segmented chemical industry index, with nearly 50% of its holdings in large-cap leading stocks, providing investors with a diversified exposure to the chemical sector [5] - The ETF allows investors to efficiently capitalize on the rebound opportunities in the chemical sector, with a balanced approach to various sub-sectors [5]

Report Overview - Report Title: How Will the Balance Evolve under High Supply and Demand Elasticity after the Supply Shock? - Research Institute: Orient Futures Derivatives Research Institute - Date: September 2025 - Analyst: Chen Yixuan 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - In the short term, the lithium market presents a combination of strong reality and weak expectations, with limited de - stocking and a surplus pattern. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on price rallies and reverse spread opportunities for LC2511 - 2512. In the long term, although the static balance remains in surplus, the high - growth demand will ease the apparent inventory build - up pressure in 2026, and the trading strategy can gradually shift from shorting on rallies to buying on dips [61]. 3. Summary by Relevant Directory Q3 Market Review - Since the end of June, lithium prices have rebounded rapidly from the bottom to 90,000 yuan, then fluctuated after a spike. From late June to mid - July, demand expectation correction drove the price to stabilize and rebound; from mid - July to mid - August, supply - side risks led to a rapid price increase; since mid - August, after the market priced in the shutdown of Jianxiaowo, the price corrected to account for the increased supply stimulated by high prices [2][5]. Supply - Side Uncertainty - Since mid - July, mining license risks in Jiangxi and Qinghai have intensified. The shutdown of some projects raised concerns about domestic supply risks, and the expiration of Jianxiaowo's mining license in August triggered market sentiment. However, since late August, the resumption of previously shut - down projects has cooled market enthusiasm [6][8]. Supply Pressure and Inventory - High prices have accelerated the manifestation of supply pressure. After the price rebound, the output of spodumene processing increased rapidly, offsetting the reduction in mica supply. Since late August, the generation of warehouse receipts has accelerated. Currently, domestic ore inventory is still at a moderately high level, and imported ore flows in stably, with new projects expanding production capacity, so there is no significant constraint on lithium salt supply [9][11][12]. Lithium Salt Trade and Resource Output - In terms of lithium salt shipments, South American shipments are in line with capacity ramp - up expectations, and Indonesia has brought marginal increments. The regional premium has changed the trade flow of lithium salts. The revised global lithium resource supply in 2025 is expected to increase by 270,000 tons LCE year - on - year, and the impact of mining license disruptions is limited. In 2026, the project reserve is still sufficient, with an expected year - on - year increase of 300,000 tons LCE, but some mica capacity may face supply uncertainty [16][19][22]. Terminal Demand - In the power market, new - energy passenger vehicle sales in China, Europe, and the US from January to August increased by 36%, 28%, and 4% year - on - year respectively. The new - energy commercial vehicle market is a highlight, with sales in China from January to August increasing by 66% year - on - year. The domestic and overseas energy - storage markets have continuously exceeded expectations, with high growth in domestic large - scale energy - storage project bids and a significant increase in overseas exports [30][36][41]. Market Balance - In the short term, the market is in a de - stocking phase, but the de - stocking amplitude is limited. The fundamental situation supports prices in the short term but cannot drive prices up independently. In the long term, from 2025 to 2026, the global lithium resource market remains in surplus, but the apparent inventory build - up in 2026 may narrow, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio will decrease [48][51][55]. Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: Given the strong reality and weak expectations, limited de - stocking, and the expectation of project resumption, it is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on price rallies and reverse spread opportunities for LC2511 - 2512. Long - term: As the demand growth will ease the inventory build - up pressure in 2026, the trading strategy can gradually shift from shorting on rallies to buying on dips [61].

Core Viewpoint - Cangge Mining's stock has shown significant growth this year, with a year-to-date increase of 107.59%, indicating strong market performance and investor interest [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Cangge Mining reported operating revenue of 1.678 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.74%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 38.80% to 1.8 billion yuan [2] - Cangge Mining has distributed a total of 9.629 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 5.998 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3] Stock Market Activity - As of September 29, Cangge Mining's stock price reached 55.49 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 87.132 billion yuan [1] - The stock experienced a trading volume of 484 million yuan and a turnover rate of 0.56% on the same day [1] - The stock has seen a recent net outflow of 31.5 million yuan in principal funds, with significant buying and selling activity from large orders [1] Shareholder Information - As of July 18, the number of shareholders for Cangge Mining increased to 29,400, with an average of 53,435 circulating shares per shareholder, a decrease of 4.22% [2] - Major shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited and Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, both of which increased their holdings compared to the previous period [3]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium extraction capacity from salt lakes in Tibet is expected to see significant growth, driven by leading companies such as Cangge Mining, Zijin Mining, and Blue Sky Technology, as they accelerate project layouts in the region [1] Group 1: Industry Developments - The construction of domestic lithium extraction capacity from salt lakes has entered a concentrated implementation phase since 2025 [1] - The rich reserves and cost advantages of salt lake lithium extraction are anticipated to contribute to this growth [1] Group 2: Company Activities - Leading companies in the industry are actively enhancing their project layouts in the Tibetan salt lakes, which is expected to substantially increase the lithium extraction scale in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau [1] - According to Wei Ming, Secretary-General of the Lithium Salt Branch of the China Inorganic Salt Industry Association, there are no technical challenges in developing the salt lakes in Tibet, and equipment can be ready for operation within eight months if conditions permit [1]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium extraction capacity from salt lakes, characterized by rich reserves and cost advantages, is expected to see significant growth, particularly in Tibet, starting from 2025 [1] Industry Summary - The domestic lithium extraction capacity from salt lakes is entering a phase of intensive development, with leading companies such as Cangge Mining, Zijin Mining, and Blue Sky Technology accelerating their key project layouts [1] - The scale of lithium extraction from salt lakes in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is anticipated to increase significantly [1] Company Summary - Cangge Mining, Zijin Mining, and Blue Sky Technology are identified as key players in the accelerated development of lithium extraction projects in Tibet [1] - The development of salt lakes in Tibet is not hindered by technical challenges, as equipment can be set up and operational within eight months if conditions permit [1]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium extraction capacity from salt lakes, particularly in Tibet, is expected to see significant growth due to advancements in technology and increased investment from leading companies in the industry [1][8]. Capacity Expansion - Cangge Mining's 50,000 tons/year lithium carbonate project at the Mami Cuo salt lake has commenced construction after receiving project approval in June 2023, with full production expected by 2026 [1]. - Cangge Mining has also acquired a 39% stake in Guoneng Mining, which has two high-quality salt lakes in Tibet, with a long-term plan to reach a lithium salt capacity of 130,000 tons [1]. - Zijin Mining's Lagocuo salt lake project has faced delays but is showing signs of accelerated production, with a projected output of 7,315 tons of lithium carbonate in the first half of 2025, compared to 239 tons in the same period of 2024 [2]. - Blue Sky Technology is actively involved in domestic salt lake capacity construction, including a collaboration with Guoneng Mining for a 3,300 tons lithium hydroxide production line, which aims to be the first industrialized salt lake lithium extraction project in Tibet [2]. Technological Innovation - The lithium extraction process is undergoing systematic innovation, with direct lithium extraction technologies significantly reducing production time and resource consumption [3]. - The use of advanced techniques such as membrane coupling and adsorption technology is expected to enhance resource utilization and lower production costs [3][4]. - The cost of adsorption agents has decreased from 200,000 yuan/ton to 45,000 yuan/ton, contributing to improved industrial competitiveness [4]. Industry Challenges - Despite the potential, the industry faces challenges such as low capacity utilization due to environmental factors and infrastructure difficulties in high-altitude regions [5][6]. - Projects in Tibet, including those by Zijin Mining and Jinyuan Co., have experienced slow production releases due to high-altitude conditions affecting equipment and operational efficiency [6][7]. - Water supply and power supply issues are significant hurdles, with companies needing to invest in desalination and renewable energy projects to ensure production continuity [7]. Market Outlook - The salt lake lithium extraction industry is becoming a crucial component in reducing China's reliance on imported lithium carbonate, with ongoing capital investments and policy support driving growth [8][9]. - In 2024, China's lithium carbonate production is projected to reach 702,000 tons, with salt lake extraction accounting for approximately 17.7%, a decrease from 28.6% in 2020 [9]. - The cost advantage of salt lake lithium extraction, estimated at 30,000 to 40,000 yuan/ton, is expected to encourage further investments and development in the sector [9].

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Overweight [1] Core Views - The chemical sector's overall performance ranked 17th this week, with a decline of 0.95%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.16 percentage points and the ChiNext Index by 2.91 percentage points [4][22] - The chemical industry is expected to continue its trend of differentiated growth in 2025, with recommendations to focus on synthetic biology, pesticides, chromatography media, sweeteners, vitamins, light hydrocarbon chemicals, COC polymers, and MDI [4] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The chemical sector's performance this week was -0.95%, ranking it 17th among all sectors, while the top three performing sectors were power equipment, non-ferrous metals, and electronics [22][23] - The top three individual stocks in the chemical sector this week were Bluefeng Biochemical (61.16%), Shangwei New Materials (44.81%), and Huarsoft Technology (31.83%) [28] Key Industry Dynamics - A new plan for stable growth in the petrochemical industry was released by seven departments, aiming for an average annual growth of over 5% in value added from 2025 to 2026 [34] - The plan emphasizes the importance of technological innovation, digital empowerment, and environmental sustainability in the petrochemical sector [34] Investment Opportunities - Synthetic biology is highlighted as a key area for growth, with companies like Kasei Biotech and Huaheng Biological being recommended for investment [4][8] - The third-generation refrigerants are expected to enter a high prosperity cycle due to upcoming quota policies and stable demand growth from the air conditioning and cold chain markets [5] - The electronic specialty gases market presents significant domestic substitution opportunities, driven by rapid upgrades in the semiconductor and photovoltaic industries [6][8] - Light hydrocarbon chemicals are identified as a global trend, with a shift towards lighter raw materials expected to enhance the value of leading companies in this sector [8] - The COC polymer industry is accelerating its domestic industrialization process, with companies like AkzoNobel being recommended for attention [9] - Potash fertilizer prices are anticipated to rebound as supply tightens and demand increases due to rising agricultural planting intentions [10] - The MDI market is expected to improve due to oligopolistic supply dynamics and stable demand from polyurethane applications [12]

Group 1 - The core transaction on September 25 involved a block trade of 122,900 shares of Cangge Mining, with a transaction value of 6.7816 million yuan and a transaction price of 55.18 yuan, reflecting a premium of 0.07% over the closing price of the day [2][3] - In the last three months, Cangge Mining has recorded a total of five block trades, amounting to a cumulative transaction value of 227 million yuan [2] - The closing price of Cangge Mining on the day of the transaction was 55.14 yuan, representing an increase of 1.92%, with a daily turnover rate of 0.99% and a total trading volume of 854 million yuan [2] Group 2 - The latest margin financing balance for Cangge Mining is 1.374 billion yuan, with an increase of 1.1221 million yuan over the past five days, reflecting a growth rate of 0.08% [3] - Cangge Mining Co., Ltd. was established on June 25, 1996, with a registered capital of 1.570225745 billion yuan [3]

| 交易日期 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 成交价格 | 成交量 | 成交全额 买方营业部 | 卖方营业部 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | (元) | (万股/万份) | (万元) | | | 2025-09-25 | 000408 | 藏格矿业 | 55.18 | 12.29 | 678.16 财通证券股份有限 | 中国银河证券股份 | | | | | | | 公司杭州文二西路 | 有限公司杭州东宁 | | | | | | | 证券营业部 | 路证券营业部 | 9月25日，藏格矿业大宗交易成交12.29万股，成交额678.16万元，占当日总成交额的0.79%，成交价55.18元，较市场收盘价 55.14元溢价0.07%。 ...

Core Insights - The energy metals sector experienced a rise of 1.36% on September 25, with Shengtu Mining leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3853.3, down 0.01%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13445.9, up 0.67% [1] Energy Metals Sector Performance - Shengtu Mining (600711) closed at 8.60, up 3.37% with a trading volume of 1.5912 million shares and a transaction value of 1.377 billion [1] - Tianqi Lithium (002466) closed at 44.69, up 3.11% with a trading volume of 738,300 shares [1] - Yongxing Materials (002756) closed at 35.29, up 2.23% with a trading volume of 137,900 shares [1] - Other notable performers include: - Cangge Mining (000408) at 55.14, up 1.92% [1] - Shengxin Lithium Energy (002240) at 18.18, up 1.68% [1] - Ganfeng Lithium (002460) at 55.73, up 1.47% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The energy metals sector saw a net inflow of 147 million in main funds, while retail funds experienced a net outflow of 27.5759 million [2] - Major stocks in the sector showed varied capital flows, with Tianqi Lithium seeing a main fund inflow of 260 million [3] - Cangge Mining had a main fund inflow of 59.2092 million, while Shengtu Mining experienced a main fund inflow of 46.1362 million [3]