Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and profit for 2024, with operating income of 3.251 billion yuan, down 37.79% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.580 billion yuan, down 24.56% year-on-year [5][6] - The investment income from the company's subsidiary, Giant Dragon Copper Industry, accounted for 74.72% of the net profit, with a total investment income of 1.928 billion yuan, an increase of 48.72% year-on-year [5] - The company is actively expanding its potassium salt production and has achieved a production target of 1.073 million tons, exceeding its goal [5] - The lithium segment is progressing with projects in Tibet, with significant lithium reserves and production plans in place [5] Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue for 2024 is projected to be 3.251 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 37.79% [6] - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 2.580 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 24.56% [6] - Forecasted revenues for 2025 and 2026 are 3.036 billion yuan and 4.248 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 3.052 billion yuan and 5.415 billion yuan [7] - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 44.9% in 2024 to 49.6% in 2025 [7] Market Performance - The company’s stock has shown a relative performance against the CSI 300 index, with absolute gains of 9.78%, 16.42%, and 28.35% over 1, 2, and 3 months, respectively [4]

5[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 藏格矿业(000408.SZ) 2025 年 03 月 31 日 所属行业：有色金属/能源金属 当前价格(元)：35.81 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 康宇豪 资格编号：S0120524050001 邮箱：kangyh＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 -34% -23% -11% 0% 11% 23% 34% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 藏格矿业 沪深300 | 沪深300对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对涨幅(%) | 9.78 | 16.42 | 28.35 | | 相对涨幅(%) | 11.11 | 13.85 | 30.45 | | 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 | | | | 相关研究 买入（维持） 1.《藏格矿业（000408.SZ）：巨龙铜 业投资收益大幅增长；结则茶卡与龙 木错盐湖项目进展顺利》，2024.10.25 2.《铜行业跟踪：24Q3 降息影响定价， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 35.81 CNY per share [5]. Core Views - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue due to falling prices of potassium chloride and lithium carbonate, but investment income from its stake in Jilong Copper Industry reached a new high [2][3]. - The company’s revenue for 2024 was 3.251 billion CNY, a decrease of 37.79% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.580 billion CNY, down 24.56% year-on-year [1][4]. - The company is set to change its controlling shareholder to Zijin International, which is expected to enhance resource development and operational synergy [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 927 million CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 10.55% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 64.98%. Net profit for the same quarter was 712 million CNY, up 57.76% year-on-year and 24.71% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The average selling prices for potassium chloride and lithium carbonate were approximately 2,115 CNY/ton and 75,200 CNY/ton, reflecting year-on-year declines of 14.9% and 60.8%, respectively [2]. Investment Income - The investment income from Jilong Copper Industry was 1.928 billion CNY, marking a year-on-year increase of 48.7%. The copper concentrate production for the year was 166,300 tons [2]. - The second phase of the Jilong Copper Mine expansion is expected to be completed by the end of 2025, with an annual copper production capacity of 300,000 to 350,000 tons [2]. Future Outlook - The report projects net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 3.028 billion CNY, 4.369 billion CNY, and 5.175 billion CNY, respectively, indicating a recovery in profitability [4]. - The company’s revenue is expected to grow by 10% in 2025, following the decline in 2024 [4].

藏格矿业（000408） 2024 年年报点评：Q4 钾锂销量双升，铜矿盈 利维持高位 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 5226 | 3251 | 3113 | 4749 | 7987 | | 同比（%） | (36.22) | (37.79) | (4.25) | 52.58 | 68.17 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 3420 | 2580 | 2725 | 3499 | 5425 | | 同比（%） | (39.52) | (24.56) | 5.64 | 28.40 | 55.04 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 2.18 | 1.64 | 1.74 | 2.23 | 3.46 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 16.44 | 21.79 | 20.63 | 16.07 | 10.36 | [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 风险提示：产 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [13]. Core Views - The decline in potash and lithium prices has negatively impacted the company's performance, with a reported revenue of 3.251 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 37.79%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.580 billion yuan, down 24.56% year-on-year [1][5]. - The company's growth potential is significantly bolstered by the Giant Dragon Copper Mine, which contributed 1.928 billion yuan to the net profit, accounting for 74.72% of the total [5]. - Future projects in the potash and lithium sectors are progressing steadily, with significant growth potential anticipated from the Ma Mi Cuo and Laos projects [5]. Financial Summary - **2024 Financial Performance**: - Total revenue: 3,251 million yuan, down 37.79% year-on-year - Net profit: 2,580 million yuan, down 24.56% year-on-year - Fourth-quarter revenue: 927 million yuan, down 10.55% year-on-year, but up 64.98% quarter-on-quarter - Fourth-quarter net profit: 712 million yuan, up 57.76% year-on-year, and up 24.71% quarter-on-quarter [1][5]. - **Future Financial Projections**: - Expected revenues for 2025-2027 are projected at 3.258 billion yuan, 3.391 billion yuan, and 3.391 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to rise to 3.240 billion yuan, 5.119 billion yuan, and 5.498 billion yuan [6]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 1.64 yuan in 2024 to 3.50 yuan by 2027 [6]. - **Valuation Metrics**: - Price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 22 in 2024 to 10 by 2027, indicating improved valuation as earnings grow [6]. - The target price for the stock is set at 39.2 yuan, based on a 19 times valuation for 2025 [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [7]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from three driving forces: potassium, lithium, and copper, with significant growth potential. The cost advantage in lithium extraction from salt lakes is notable, and the expansion projects for the giant dragon copper segment are progressing steadily. The copper segment shows significant earnings elasticity, and with Zijin Mining's involvement, project timelines may exceed expectations. The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 2.93 billion, 4.97 billion, and 6.71 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 19, 11, and 8 based on the closing price on March 28 [5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.25 billion yuan, a decrease of 37.8% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.58 billion yuan, down 24.6% year-on-year. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 930 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.6%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 65.0%, with a net profit of 710 million yuan, up 57.8% year-on-year and 24.7% quarter-on-quarter [1]. Lithium Segment - The company met its annual production target for lithium, producing 11,600 tons of lithium carbonate in 2024, a decrease of 4.1% year-on-year, while sales increased by 31.7% to 13,600 tons. The average market price for battery-grade lithium carbonate in 2024 was 90,000 yuan, down 64.6% year-on-year, with the company's selling price at 75,000 yuan, a decrease of 60.8% [2]. Potassium Segment - The potassium chloride production and sales reached 1.07 million and 1.04 million tons, respectively, in 2024, with a significant recovery in Q4 sales, which increased by 88.7% quarter-on-quarter. The average market price for potassium chloride was 2,519 yuan, down 14.8% year-on-year, while the company's selling price was 2,115 yuan, a decrease of 14.9% [3]. Copper Segment - The giant dragon copper segment produced 166,000 tons in 2024, with a net profit of 6.26 billion yuan, achieving a net profit per ton of approximately 38,000 yuan. The average LME copper price was 9,271 USD per ton, up 8.8% year-on-year. The company holds a 30.78% stake in the giant dragon, contributing 1.93 billion yuan in investment income in 2024 [4]. Employee Stock Ownership Plan - The company announced a second employee stock ownership plan to enhance management and employee motivation, with performance targets set for 2025-2027 based on net profit growth and project milestones [5].

藏格矿业（000408.SZ）2024 年年报点评 铜矿业绩贡献再创新高，期待巨龙扩产落地 2025 年 03 月 30 日 ➢ 钾：Q4 销量大幅恢复，成本恢复正常水平。1）量：24 年氯化钾产销 107、104 万 吨，完成年度产量目标，其中 24Q4 产量 31.7 万吨，环比+35.7%，销量 33.0 万吨，环 比+88.7%，Q4 销量大幅恢复；2）价：24 年国内氯化钾市场价 2519 元，同比-14.8%， 公司 24 年氯化钾不含税销售均价 2115 元，同比-14.9%；3）本：24 年单吨生产成本 1167 元，同比+7.1%，其中 24Q4 单吨生产成本 1072 元，环比-555 元，我们预计主要 由于 Q3 盐田一次性绿色矿山投入较高，Q4 钾肥成本恢复正常。 ➢ 铜：巨龙 Q4 单吨净利约 4.1 万，投资收益亮眼。1）量：24 年巨龙铜产量 16.6 万 吨，其中 24Q4 产量 4.4 万吨，环比+8.0%；2）价&利：24 年 LME 铜均价 9271 美元/ 吨，同比+8.8%，凭借优秀的控本能力，巨龙铜业实现净利润 62.6 亿元，单吨净利约 3.8 万元，其中 24Q ...

年报数据显示，报告期内，藏格矿业销售氯化钾实现收入22.10亿元，销售碳酸锂实现收入10.22亿元； 参股公司巨龙铜业贡献投资收益19.28亿元。 具体来看，一方面扎实推进氯化钾稳产保供与成本管理。报告期内，藏格矿业积极响应国家对保障粮食 安全号召，主动上调氯化钾生产计划至年产量105万吨。报告期内，公司实际生产氯化钾107.30万吨， 完成率达102.19%；实际销售104.49万吨，完成率为100.28%。 2024年，面对外部氯化钾的价格波动，公司在"降能耗、提效率"上下功夫，实现全年氯化钾平均销售价 格(含税)2305.66元/吨，销售成本1167.06元/吨，公司最近三年氯化钾平均销售成本稳定在合理水平，夯 实了氯化钾业务作为业绩"压舱石"的地位。 另一方面，藏格矿业精研生产工艺与科学统筹产销并进，周期波动下持续夯实碳酸锂成本优势。报告期 内，公司围绕碳酸锂生产工艺，尤其在吸附工艺环节开展优化。报告期内，公司实现碳酸锂产量11566 吨，销量13582吨。报告期内，公司碳酸锂平均售价(含税)为8.50万元/吨，平均销售成本4.10万元/吨， 毛利率为45.44%。同时，公司被指定为广期所碳酸锂期货交 ...

Core Viewpoint - Cangge Mining (藏格矿业) demonstrates strong resilience in performance, with significant contributions from its copper segment and a projected net profit exceeding 2.5 billion yuan for 2024, indicating ongoing high-quality development and new growth momentum [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, Cangge Mining achieved revenue of 3.251 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.580 billion yuan, with Q4 revenue reaching 927 million yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 64.95% [1] - The company reported a total asset of 15.083 billion yuan, a 7.04% increase from the beginning of the year, and a net asset of 13.865 billion yuan, up 6.18% [1] Potassium and Lithium Operations - Cangge Mining produced 1.073 million tons of potassium chloride in 2024, achieving a completion rate of 102.19%, with sales of 1.045 million tons [2] - The potassium chloride segment generated revenue of 2.210 billion yuan with a gross margin of 44.83% [2] - The lithium carbonate production reached 11,566 tons with sales of 13,582 tons, a year-on-year increase of 31.7%, contributing 1.022 billion yuan in revenue and a gross margin of 45.44% [3] Copper Segment Contribution - The investment income from the associated company, Julong Copper, reached 1.928 billion yuan, accounting for 74.72% of the net profit, with a year-on-year increase of 48.72% [3] - Julong Copper's second-phase expansion is expected to be operational by the end of 2025, potentially doubling the copper production capacity [3] ESG and Social Responsibility - Cangge Mining has integrated social responsibility into its corporate values, receiving multiple awards for its contributions to community development and environmental sustainability [4] - The company initiated its first carbon inventory in 2024 and is committed to enhancing its ESG governance and green development practices [4] Shareholder Returns - Cangge Mining implemented a "dividend + buyback" strategy, distributing approximately 408 million yuan in mid-year dividends and accumulating a total cash dividend of 7.429 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024 [5] - The company has repurchased shares worth about 300 million yuan, successfully canceling 10.21 million shares [5] Strategic Collaboration with Zijin Mining - The acquisition by Zijin Mining is expected to enhance Cangge Mining's asset scale, resource reserves, and management efficiency, facilitating the achievement of international mining group standards [6] - The collaboration is anticipated to leverage both companies' strengths in lithium resource development and cost control [6] Resource Reserves and Future Outlook - Cangge Mining holds substantial resources, including potassium salt projects in Laos and lithium resources in the Marmizuo Salt Lake, which are expected to enhance economic benefits through potential technical cooperation with Zijin Mining [7] - The company aims to optimize its internal structure and expand its global operational management system, focusing on key resources like potassium and lithium to strengthen its competitive advantage [8]

Group 1 - Cangge Mining (000408.SZ) released its 2024 annual report on March 29, 2025, indicating that as of March 28, 2025, 135 institutional investors disclosed holding A-shares, totaling 840 million shares, which accounts for 53.14% of the total share capital [1] - The top ten institutional investors include Tibet Cangge Venture Capital Group Co., Ltd., Ningbo Meishan Bonded Port Area Xinsahongyun Investment Management Co., Ltd., Sichuan Yonghong Industrial Co., Ltd., and others, with a combined holding ratio of 51.53%, showing a decrease of 0.91 percentage points compared to the previous quarter [1] Group 2 - In the public fund sector, one fund, Dongcai Nonferrous Enhanced A, increased its holdings slightly, while six funds, including Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF and others, reduced their holdings by 0.11% [2] - A total of 102 new public funds were disclosed this period, including Jiashi CSI 300 ETF and others, while 18 funds were no longer disclosed, including Dacheng Active Growth Mixed A and others [2] - In terms of foreign investment, one foreign fund, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, increased its holdings by 0.17% [2]