Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve steady revenue growth in 2025, driven by solid domestic demand and strategic market development [4][9] - The revenue targets for 2025-2027 are projected at 255.05 billion, 280.64 billion, and 321.06 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 8.17%, 10.03%, and 14.40% respectively [9][11] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 60.75 billion, 68.27 billion, and 80.37 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 10.11%, 12.38%, and 17.72% [9][11] Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 167.11 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 883 billion yuan [3] - The company has a total share capital of 5.29 billion shares, with 4.09 billion shares in circulation [3] - The company's debt-to-asset ratio stands at 36.6%, and the price-to-earnings ratio is 16.01 [3] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company is projected to achieve total operating revenue of 235.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.41% [4][11] - The gross profit margin is expected to be 79.9%, with a net profit margin of 23.4% [4] - The company plans to distribute a total cash dividend of 31.72 billion yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 57.49%, an increase of 5.66 percentage points year-on-year [4] Product and Channel Performance - For 2024, revenue from different product lines is expected to be 180.86 billion from aged original liquor, 22.41 billion from Gujing liquor, and 25.38 billion from other products [6] - Online and offline channels are projected to generate revenues of 7.72 billion and 228.06 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.81% and 16.81% [6] - The number of distributors increased to 5,089, up by 448 year-on-year, indicating a strengthening distribution network [6] Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are estimated to be 11.49, 12.92, and 15.20 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 15, 13, and 11 times [9][11] - The company is expected to maintain a healthy return on equity (ROE) of around 22.4% in 2024, gradually decreasing to 21.3% by 2027 [11][14]

食品饮料 2025年04月28日 古井贡酒(000596.SZ) 2024顺利收官，分红稳定提升 推荐 ( 维持) 股价:167.11元 行情走势图 相关研究报告 公 司 报 告 【平安证券】古井贡酒（000596.SZ）*季报点评*环 比降速，稳扎稳打*推荐20241031 【平安证券】古井贡酒（000596.SZ）*半年报点评* 市场稳扎稳打，利润持续释放*推荐20240831 证券分析师 事项： 古井贡酒发布2024年年报与2025年1季报。2024年实现营收236亿元，同比 +16.4%，归母净利55亿元，同比+20.2%，其中4Q24实现营收45亿元，同比 +4.8%，归母净利7.7亿元，同比-0.7%，业绩符合快报。1Q25实现营收91亿 元，同比+10.4%，归母净利23.3亿元，同比+12.8%。公司拟每10股派发红利 50元（含税），2024年拟总分红31.7亿元，分红率57.5%。 平安观点： 司 年 报 点 评 研 究 报 告 张晋溢 投资咨询资格编号 S1060521030001 ZHANGJINYI112@pingan.com.cn 王萌 投资咨询资格编号 S106052203000 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·白酒Ⅱ 古井贡酒（000596） 2024 年报及 2025 年一季报点评：业绩符合 预期，延续韧性增长 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 20,254 | 23,578 | 26,252 | 29,270 | 32,550 | | 同比（%） | 21.18 | 16.41 | 11.34 | 11.50 | 11.20 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 4,589 | 5,517 | 6,199 | 7,013 | 7,826 | | 同比（%） | 46.01 | 20.22 | 12.35 | 13.14 | 11.59 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 8.68 | 10.44 | 11.73 | 13.27 | 14.81 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 19.25 | 16.01 | 14.25 | 12.59 | 11.29 | [Table_ ...

公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 古井贡酒（000596）2024 年报及 2025 年一季报点评 强推（维持） Q1 实现开门红，稳健增长可期 事项： ❖ 公司发布 24 年报及 25 年一季报，24 年营收 235.8 亿元，同增 16.4%;归母净 利润 55.2 亿元，同增 20.2%，分红率达 57.5%，同比提升 5.7pcts;测算单 Q4 实 现营收 45.1 亿元，同增 4.9%;归母净利润 7.7 亿元，同减 0.7%。25Q1 营收/归 母净利润分别为 91.5/23.3 亿元，同比+10.4%/+12.8%。Q1 末合同负债 36.7 亿 元，环比 24Q4 末上升 1.59 亿元。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 23,578 | 26,086 | 28,813 | 31,758 | | 同比增速(%) | 16.4% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 10.2% | | 归母净利润( ...

古井贡酒（ [Table_StockNameRptType] 000596） 公司点评 | 产品结构升级持续 | | --- | ——古井贡酒 24 年报&25Q1 点评 | 投资评级：买入（维持） [Table_Rank] | | --- | | 报告日期： 2025-04-28 | | [Table_BaseData] 收盘价（元） | 167.11 | | --- | --- | | 近 12 个月最高/最低（元）280.00/139.02 | | | 总股本（百万股） | 529 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 409 | | 流通股比例（%） | 77.30 | | 总市值（亿元） | 883 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 683 | [公司价格与沪深 Table_Chart] 300 走势比较 执业证书号：S0010524010001 邮箱：dengxin@hazq.com 主要观点： ⚫ 收入：产品结构升级持续 ⚫ 利润：盈利能力提升持续兑现 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评级说明 证券研究报告 -56% -35% -15% 6% 27% 4/24 7/24 10/24 1/25 古井贡酒 沪深300 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company continues to upgrade its product structure, leading to sustained revenue growth [7] - Profitability is consistently improving, with net profit margins increasing [8] - The company has reported strong financial performance in Q1 2025, exceeding market expectations [10] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 9.146 billion (up 10.4%) and net profit of 2.330 billion (up 12.8%) [10] - For the full year 2024, revenue was 23.578 billion (up 16.4%) and net profit was 5.517 billion (up 20.2%) [10] - The company’s gross margin for Q1 2025 decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 79.7%, attributed to increased channel expenses [10] - The gross margin for the full year 2024 improved by 0.8 percentage points to 79.9% due to product structure enhancement [10] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain strong growth, with projected revenues of 26.041 billion, 29.023 billion, and 32.609 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 10.4%, 11.5%, and 12.4% [11] - Net profit forecasts for the same years are 6.252 billion, 7.130 billion, and 8.236 billion, with growth rates of 13.3%, 14.0%, and 15.5% respectively [11] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 14, 12, and 11 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [11]

Industry Overview - The performance of listed liquor companies has been disclosed, with nearly 20 companies reporting their 2024 annual reports and some also releasing Q1 reports as of April 27 [1] - The overall trend shows a slowdown in the liquor industry, particularly in the white liquor segment, while top brands continue to show growth [1] - Beer stocks have rebounded in Q1 after a decline last year, with companies like Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer reporting high growth in profits [1] Company Performance - Wuliangye reported a revenue of 89.175 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.09%, with a net profit of 31.853 billion yuan, up 5.44% [1] - Gujing Gongjiu achieved a revenue of 23.578 billion yuan in 2024, growing 16.41% year-on-year, and a net profit of 5.517 billion yuan, up 20.22% [2] - Luzhou Laojiao's revenue for 2024 was 31.196 billion yuan, a 3.19% increase, with a net profit of 13.473 billion yuan, up 1.71% [3] - Yanjing Beer reported a revenue of 3.827 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a 6.69% increase, with a net profit of 165 million yuan, up 61.10% [4] - Zhujiang Beer achieved a revenue of 1.227 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a 10.69% increase, with a net profit of 157 million yuan, up 29.83% [4] - Laobai Gan Jiu reported a revenue of 5.358 billion yuan for 2024, a 1.9% increase, with a net profit of 787 million yuan, up 18% [5] - Tianyoude Jiu's revenue for 2024 was 1.255 billion yuan, a 3.7% increase, but net profit fell by 53% to 42.135 million yuan [7] - Zhangyu A reported a revenue of 811 million yuan in Q1 2025, a slight increase of 0.01%, with a net profit of 159 million yuan, up 0.21% [8] Market Dynamics - The liquor industry is experiencing a significant differentiation between leading brands and others, with some companies facing delisting risks due to poor performance [1] - The overall liquor market is still in a period of adjustment, with increased competition and declining production [7] - Guizhou province's liquor manufacturing sector saw a growth of 6.6% in Q1 2025, contributing to the overall economic growth of the region [16] - The import of wine has rebounded to become the top category, while the import value of spirits has decreased significantly [17]

Group 1: Key Insights on Gujinggong Liquor (古井贡酒) - The company reported 2024 revenue of 23.58 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.4%, and a net profit of 5.52 billion, up 20.2% year-on-year [12][16] - For Q1 2025, revenue reached 9.15 billion, growing 10.4% year-on-year, with net profit at 2.33 billion, a 12.8% increase [12][16] - The company maintains a buy rating with projected net profits for 2025-2027 at 5.92 billion, 6.29 billion, and 6.63 billion respectively, reflecting growth rates of 7.3%, 6.3%, and 5.3% [16] Group 2: Key Insights on Chongqing Bank (重庆银行) - In Q1 2025, Chongqing Bank achieved revenue of 3.6 billion, a 5.3% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 1.6 billion, also up 5.3% [15][20] - The bank's non-performing loan ratio decreased to 1.21%, with a provision coverage ratio rising to 248% [15][20] - The bank's loan growth accelerated, with a 16.4% year-on-year increase, driven by a more than 30% growth in corporate loans [20] Group 3: Industry Insights on Real Estate - The recent political bureau meeting emphasized the importance of stabilizing the real estate market, highlighting the need for high-quality housing supply [22][26] - The meeting also called for optimizing the policies for acquiring existing housing stock, indicating a proactive approach to address market challenges [26] - The real estate sector is viewed as crucial for economic stability, with ongoing support expected to enhance market conditions [22][26]

机构指出，从资产配置的角度来说，依然建议关注红利板块，重视经济周期下大类资产的价格规律。 【财经日历】 北京香山论坛先导会； 国新办就稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展政策措施有关情况举行新闻发布会。 | 树 盘前必读 | // 外盘怎么样 // | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 道琼斯工业指数 | 42374.36 | -140.59 | -0.33% | | 纳斯达克指数 | 18415.49c | 138.84 | 0.76% | | 标普500 | 5809.86 | 12.44 | 0.21% | 上周五美股全线周涨，投资者消化一系列企业财报，并寻找缓解贸易争端紧张局势的迹象。截至收盘，道指涨20.10点，涨幅0.05%，报40113.50点，纳指涨 1.26%，报17382.94点，标普500指数涨0.74%，报5525.21点。上周道指周涨2.5%，纳指周涨6.7%，标普500指数周涨4.6%。 明星科技股表现不俗，英伟达涨4.3%，Meta涨2.7%，亚马逊涨1.3%，微软涨1.2%。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌0.4%，阿里 ...

(责任编辑：王治强HF013) 【古井贡酒2025年一季度业绩披露】古井贡酒4月28日公布2025年第一季度报告。公司营业总收入达 91.46亿元，同比增长10.38%。归母净利润23.3亿元，同比增长12.78%。扣非净利润23.12亿元，同比增 长12.78%。经营活动产生的现金流量净额为18.45亿元，同比下降24.81%。报告期内，基本每股收益为 4.41元，加权平均净资产收益率为9.21%。以4月25日收盘价计算，其市盈率(TTM)约为15.28倍，市净率 (LF)约3.34倍，市销率(TTM)约3.61倍。公司主要从事白酒生产和销售。2025年一季度，加权平均净资 产收益率同比上升0.05个百分点，投入资本回报率较上年同期下降0.38个百分点。截至一季度末，经营 活动现金流净额同比下降24.81%，筹资活动现金流净额减少4亿元，投资活动现金流净额由上年同期的 864.93万元变为-8.86亿元。资产方面，应收款项融资较上年末增加55.19%，存货增加0.09%，固定资产 减少0.84%，货币资金增加3.8%。负债方面，应付票据及应付账款较上年末减少18.65%，其他流动负债 增加32.18%，应交 ...