Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has seen a significant increase in the prices of liquor stocks, with several companies reaching their daily price limits or experiencing substantial gains [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Shede Liquor has reached its daily limit up [1] - Jiu Gui Jiu is close to reaching its daily limit up [1] - Luzhou Laojiao has increased by over 7% [1] - Shanxi Fenjiu and Gujing Gongjiu have both risen by over 6% [1] - Yingjia Gongjiu has increased by over 5% [1] - Jinhui Liquor has risen by over 4% [1] - Shuijingfang, Jinzizijiu, Jianshiyuan, Wuliangye, and Laobai Ganjiu have all increased by over 3% [1] - Kweichow Moutai has risen by nearly 2% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has seen a significant rise in liquor stocks, indicating positive investor sentiment in this sector [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Zhongrui Co. and Kuaijishan both reached the daily limit increase, showcasing strong market interest [1] - Shede Liquor increased nearly 7%, while Luzhou Laojiao and Gujing Gongjiu rose over 5% [1] - Yinjia Gongjiu, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Jiu Gui Jiu saw increases of over 4% [1] - Jinhuijiu, Laiyifen, and Guyue Longshan rose over 3%, while Jinzhongzi Jiu, Wushang Group, Wuliangye, and Shui Jing Fang increased over 2% [1] - Kweichow Moutai experienced a rise of over 1% [1]

分红方面，古井贡酒A股上市后累计派现126.12亿元。近三年，累计派现71.36亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，古井贡酒十大流通股东中，招商中证白酒指数A（161725）位居 第二大流通股东，持股1598.27万股，相比上期增加235.27万股。易方达消费行业股票（110022）位居第 四大流通股东，持股778.61万股，相比上期减少19.19万股。景顺长城新兴成长混合A（260108）位居第 七大流通股东，持股580.00万股，相比上期减少300.00万股。香港中央结算有限公司位居第八大流通股 东，持股563.66万股，相比上期增加48.53万股。酒ETF（512690）位居第九大流通股东，持股532.09万 股，为新进股东。景顺长城鼎益混合(LOF)A（162605）退出十大流通股东之列。 责任编辑：小浪快报 资料显示，安徽古井贡酒股份有限公司位于安徽省亳州市古井镇古井产业园，成立日期1999年3月5日， 上市日期1996年9月27日，公司主营业务涉及白酒、啤酒、葡萄酒、酿酒设备、包装材料、玻璃瓶,酒 精、饲料、油脂、饮料,高新技术开发、生物技术开发、农副产品深加工的生产与销售等。主营业务 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Q3 report for the liquor industry indicates it is the worst quarter in the past decade, with most companies experiencing significant declines in performance, while only a few, like Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu, managed to maintain positive growth [1][4]. Group 1: Performance Comparison - Among the 21 A-share liquor companies, only 15 have fully experienced the previous adjustment period, showing improved resilience against downturns [2]. - In 2025 Q3, the revenue and net profit of these 15 companies fell by 4.5% and 5.5%, respectively, compared to more severe declines in 2013 and 2014 [4]. - The number of leading liquor companies maintaining positive growth has increased, with Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu being the only ones to achieve this in 2025 Q3 [5]. Group 2: Profitability and Financial Resilience - The total net profit of the 15 liquor companies in 2025 Q3 exceeded 110 billion, significantly higher than the less than 28 billion in 2013 [10]. - The accumulated undistributed profits of these companies reached 468.8 billion, five times that of 2013, indicating a stronger financial cushion [10][12]. - The profitability of leading companies has improved, with Moutai maintaining a gross margin above 90% and Wuliangye's gross margin rising to over 80% [13][14]. Group 3: Sales and Marketing Strategies - Unlike the previous cycle, companies have been more restrained in their sales expenditures, with many reducing their sales expense ratios compared to 2013 and 2014 [17][19]. - Guizhou Moutai's sales expense ratio remains low at around 3-4%, reflecting strong brand recognition and market confidence [20]. Group 4: Channel Confidence and Cash Flow - The confidence of distributors has improved, with contract liabilities for the 15 companies increasing by 3.6% in 2025 Q3, contrasting sharply with the declines seen in the previous cycle [22][24]. - However, some non-leading companies have reported negative cash flow from operating activities, indicating potential financial strain [28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the liquor industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The liquor industry is currently in a phase of pressure relief and clearing, with expectations for performance recovery in the future. The focus should be on companies that show early signs of a turning point and have leading growth elasticity [3] - The overall revenue of the liquor sector has declined, with a 5.5% year-on-year drop in total revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, and an 18.3% decline in Q3 alone. Net profit also saw a significant decrease of 21.9% in Q3 [12][24] - The high-end liquor segment is under pressure, with a need for macroeconomic recovery to achieve a balance in volume and price. Companies with strong brand positioning and national expansion potential are recommended for investment [3][12] Summary by Sections 1. Q3 Performance and Market Conditions - The Q3 performance of the liquor sector shows a slow recovery in consumption scenarios, with overall sales continuing to face pressure. The high-end and next-high-end liquor demand remains under pressure, particularly in business and personal dining scenarios [12][13] - The overall revenue for the liquor sector in Q3 dropped by 18.3% year-on-year, with net profit down by 21.9%, indicating a significant acceleration in the decline compared to previous quarters [12][24] 2. Revenue Trends - The liquor sector's revenue has been on a downward trend, with a 5.5% year-on-year decline in the first three quarters of 2025. The Q3 revenue decline is particularly sharp at 18.3% [12][24] - High-end liquor companies are experiencing a shift in their financial reports, with revenue declines driven by pressure on major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye [30][41] 3. Profitability Analysis - The gross profit margin for the liquor sector has decreased, with Q3 margins at 81.7%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year. The decline in profitability is attributed to structural issues and increased costs [2][3] - The report highlights that the majority of liquor companies have seen an increase in sales expenses, while management expenses have also risen slightly due to weaker revenue realization [2][3] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests prioritizing investments in companies that are likely to recover first, such as Luzhou Laojiao and Shanxi Fenjiu, which have strong governance and dividend yields. Other companies to watch include Zhenjiu Lidu and Shede Liquor [3][12] - The focus should be on companies that can maintain channel stability and show early signs of marginal recovery, as the market is expected to support valuations for these firms [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry, particularly Baijiu, has undergone a cyclical evolution characterized by periods of adjustment, iteration, and upgrading, reflecting a complex interplay of consumer demand and market dynamics [1][4]. Historical Development Foundation Period (1949-2000) - The domestic market focused on basic needs, with low industry concentration and local distilleries dominating production. The establishment of benchmark brands through "Chinese Famous Liquor Selection" laid the groundwork for future development [1]. - Gujinggong Liquor emerged as a leading brand, winning gold awards four times and becoming one of the "Old Eight Famous Liquors" [3]. Adjustment Period (2001-2015) - Following China's WTO accession in 2001, per capita disposable income increased, shifting Baijiu consumption from basic needs to high-end markets. However, the 2012 "ban on official banquets" led to a decline in overall sales [4]. - Gujinggong adapted to market changes by launching the "Year-Old Original Liquor" series in 2008, targeting the mid-to-high-end market [4]. Growth Period (2016-2024) - Baijiu production peaked at 13.584 million kiloliters in 2016 but has since declined, while revenue and profit for large-scale liquor enterprises have increased [4]. - The industry has entered a "value-driven" growth phase, with a shift in consumer demand towards quality over quantity, benefiting leading brands like Gujinggong [4]. Current Positioning - The Baijiu industry is at a cyclical turning point, transitioning from "scale dividends" to "value dividends," driven by trends in health consumption, digital transformation, and brand internationalization [4][5]. - Gujinggong has introduced a "light" concept with its 26% vol Year-Old Original Light Gu20, appealing to younger consumers and aligning with health trends [5]. Industry Trends Health Consumption - The focus of drinking has shifted from social obligation to personal enjoyment and self-expression, prompting brands to innovate [5]. Digital Transformation - The adoption of smart manufacturing and IoT technologies is enhancing production efficiency and product quality, with Gujinggong leading initiatives in digitalization [7][9]. Brand Internationalization - Chinese Baijiu brands are increasingly recognizing the importance of global brand building, with Gujinggong actively promoting Chinese liquor culture internationally [9][11]. Industry Insights Resilience Through Cycles - Successful companies in the Baijiu industry exhibit traits of maintaining foundational quality and embracing change, which are crucial for navigating cyclical challenges [14]. - Gujinggong's commitment to quality and cultural heritage has fortified its competitive edge, serving as a model for other enterprises [14]. Embracing Change - The cyclical nature of the industry necessitates a dynamic balance between supply and demand, with companies needing to adapt to evolving consumer preferences to avoid obsolescence [14]. Future Outlook - The Chinese Baijiu industry is expected to emerge from its transformation with renewed confidence and stability, poised to achieve new milestones on the global stage [14].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry, particularly Baijiu, is undergoing a cyclical evolution characterized by "adjustment-iteration-upgrade," with opportunities for high-quality growth and structural improvement, exemplified by the case of Gujing Gongjiu [1][6][14]. Group 1: Industry Cycle Evolution - The development of the Chinese Baijiu industry over the past 70 years can be divided into three typical cycles: the foundational period (1949-2000), the adjustment period (2001-2015), and the growth period (2016-2024) [1][4][5]. - During the foundational period, the industry was characterized by low concentration and local production, with Gujing Gongjiu establishing itself as a leading brand by winning multiple awards and leveraging its historical significance [3][4]. - The adjustment period saw a shift in consumer demand towards high-end products, influenced by socio-economic changes, but also faced challenges due to regulatory measures like the "ban on official banquets," leading to a consolidation of the industry [4][6]. - The growth period has been marked by a decline in production volume but an increase in revenue and profit for major enterprises, indicating a shift towards value-driven growth [5][6]. Group 2: Current Opportunities and Trends - The current phase is viewed as a "value dividend replacing scale dividend," with trends in health consumption, digital transformation, and brand internationalization opening new strategic avenues for the industry [7][11][14]. - Gujing Gongjiu is pioneering in health-oriented products, introducing lighter alcohol options and functional health drinks to cater to evolving consumer preferences [7][9]. - The company is also embracing digital transformation through smart manufacturing and IoT technologies to enhance production efficiency and product quality [9][11]. - Internationalization efforts include cultural exchanges and establishing a presence in global markets, with initiatives to promote Chinese Baijiu culture abroad [11][13]. Group 3: Industry Insights - Successful companies in the Baijiu industry demonstrate resilience through a strong foundation in quality and cultural heritage, which serve as protective barriers against cyclical risks [14][16]. - Embracing change and adapting to shifting consumer demands is crucial for survival and growth, as evidenced by Gujing Gongjiu's proactive strategies during industry fluctuations [16]. - The cyclical nature of the industry is seen as a normal aspect of its evolution, with each downturn providing opportunities for stronger recovery and innovation [16].

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the liquor sector is actively releasing pressure on financial statements, with the industry gradually bottoming out. The frozen food sector is witnessing a turning point, while the soft drink and snack sectors maintain high levels of prosperity [3][4][30] Summary by Sections 1. Liquor - The liquor sector's total revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was CNY 319.23 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5.76%, with net profit down 6.85% to CNY 122.67 billion. In Q3 alone, revenue fell 18.38% to CNY 78.48 billion, and net profit dropped 22.00% to CNY 28.09 billion [14][28] - High-end liquor brands like Moutai showed stable growth, while others like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao faced significant declines. Moutai's revenue grew by 9.28% year-on-year, while Wuliangye's fell by 10.26% [17][19] - The second-tier liquor brands, such as Fenjiu, showed resilience with a revenue increase of 5.00%, while others like Shui Jing Fang and Shede experienced declines [26][22] 2. Soft Drinks - The soft drink sector saw significant growth, with companies like Dongpeng Beverage reporting a 34.13% increase in revenue year-on-year. The energy drink segment, particularly, showed robust growth [30][31] - The introduction of new flavors and products, such as Dongpeng's summer limited edition, contributed to the sustained high growth rates in this sector [30] 3. Dairy Products - The dairy sector, led by Yili, maintained stable performance despite high base effects, with significant growth in milk powder and cold drink products. New Dairy's low-temperature products continued to show double-digit growth [4][31] 4. Frozen Foods - The frozen food industry is experiencing a turning point, with companies noting that the price war has peaked. The focus is shifting towards rational competition and value [7][30] 5. Snacks - The snack sector is undergoing strategic adjustments, with member stores and instant retail becoming key growth channels. The overall consumption environment remains weak, but the snack sector is adapting with targeted strategies [7][30]

Core Viewpoint - The recent financial reports of 20 listed liquor companies reveal that only Kweichow Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu experienced revenue and profit growth, while the remaining 18 companies, including the Anhui liquor group, faced declines or losses in the first three quarters of 2025 [2][3] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the total revenue of four major Anhui liquor companies was 24.74 billion yuan, down from 29.75 billion yuan in the same period last year [2] - In Q3 2025, Gujing Gongjiu's revenue fell by 51.65% and net profit dropped by 74.56%; Kuozi Jiao's revenue decreased by 46.23% with a net profit decline of 92.55%; Yingjia Gongjiu's revenue declined by 20.76% and net profit fell by 39.01% [2] - Jinzhongzi Jiu was the only company in the Anhui liquor group to achieve positive revenue growth in Q3, with a growth rate of 3.73% [2] Group 2: Industry Challenges - The white liquor industry is characterized by shrinking volume, falling prices, and high inventory pressure, exacerbated by the new "drinking ban" introduced in May, which significantly reduced core consumption demand [3] - The overall revenue of listed liquor companies in Q3 2025 was 77.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 18.47%, while net profit was 28.01 billion yuan, down 22.22%, marking the largest quarterly drop in nearly a decade [3] - The strict enforcement of the "drinking ban" in Anhui, despite some adjustments in late September, remains a significant factor affecting the performance of the Anhui liquor group [3] Group 3: Strategic Responses - The Anhui liquor group is undergoing a transition from "scale expansion" to "value enhancement," with a solid market foundation in the 40 billion yuan Anhui liquor market, where the top three brands hold over 50% market share [5] - Gujing Gongjiu is focusing on national expansion and mid-to-high-end positioning, implementing strategies to stabilize prices and clear inventory while launching new products targeting younger consumers [5] - Yingjia Gongjiu is advancing its dual-core strategy and organizational development to enhance market penetration and brand loyalty through data platforms and member centers [6] - Kuozi Jiao is focusing on market, structure, and brand upgrades while actively adjusting strategies to better serve consumers and distributors [7] - Jinzhongzi Jiu is committed to its "Fuhuo Xiang Strategy," achieving a 3.73% revenue increase in Q3, indicating positive brand development and potential for future performance improvement [7]

Core Viewpoint - The active funds have continued to reduce their holdings in the liquor sector during the third quarter, influenced by the underperformance of liquor stocks compared to broader indices, leading to a passive decline in their proportion within public fund holdings [2][4]. Group 1: Fund Holdings and Changes - In the third quarter, the number of liquor stocks held by active funds slightly increased from 325 million shares to 328 million shares, indicating no large-scale sell-off [4][6]. - The total number of liquor stocks held by active funds decreased significantly from 501 million shares to 325 million shares in the second quarter, a reduction of 35% [4]. - The total market value of liquor stocks held by active funds in the third quarter was approximately 6.90 billion yuan, with a slight increase in holdings compared to the previous quarter [7]. Group 2: Performance of Liquor Stocks - The China Securities Liquor Index rose by 7.75% in the third quarter, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 10 percentage points and the "Equity Mixed Fund Index" by 18 percentage points [2]. - The proportion of liquor stocks in the public fund holdings decreased due to their underperformance relative to other sectors [2]. Group 3: Fund Managers' Strategies - Fund manager He Shuai significantly increased his positions in Kweichow Moutai and Luzhou Laojiao, which became part of the top ten holdings in his fund, accounting for a total of 11.4% [9]. - Fund manager Li Xiaoxing also increased his holdings in Luzhou Laojiao and Wuliangye, citing the attractive dividend yield and potential for recovery in consumer stocks [11]. - Fund manager Nie Shilin increased his holdings in Kweichow Moutai by 77% and in Shanxi Fenjiu by 96%, indicating a strong bullish stance on high-end liquor [13]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Some fund managers expressed a cautious outlook, suggesting that the domestic consumption and real estate sectors remain under pressure, with a focus on observing policy changes affecting consumer demand [14]. - Fund managers like Zhang Feng have shifted their focus to higher dividend yield sectors, indicating a strategic pivot towards food and beverage stocks, including liquor, due to their potential for recovery [19]. Group 5: Redemption and Fund Flows - The consumer-focused active funds experienced significant redemptions, with total shares dropping from 74.5 billion to 65.5 billion, reflecting a net redemption of 12% [25]. - In contrast, the total shares of ordinary stock and mixed funds saw only a 5% net redemption, highlighting the challenges faced by consumer-focused funds [26].