公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 燕京啤酒（000729）2025 年中报点评 强推（维持） 业绩超预告，升级动能足 目标价：15.5 元 事项： ❖ 公司发布 2025 年中报。25H1 公司实现营业总收入 85.6 亿元，同增 6.4%；实 现归母净利润 11.0 亿元，同增 45.4%，实现扣非归母净利润 10.4 亿元，同增 39.9%；单 Q2 公司实现营业总收入 47.3 亿元，同增 6.1%；实现归母净利润 9.4 亿元，同增 43.0%；实现扣非归母净利润 8.8 亿元，同增 38.4%，超出此前 预告上限。 评论： ❖ 风险提示：U8 推广不及预期，中高端市场竞争加剧，改革初期盈利波动性大。 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 14,667 | 15,472 | 16,114 | 16,608 | | 同比增速(%) | 3.2% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 3.1% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 1 ...

Core Insights - Yanjing Beer reported a revenue of 8.558 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.37% [1] - The beer sales volume, including managed operations, reached 2.3517 million kiloliters, an increase of 2.03% compared to the previous year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.103 billion yuan, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 45.45% [1] Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from mid-to-high-end products was 5.53577 billion yuan, accounting for 70.11% of the main business revenue, up from 5.06381 billion yuan in the same period last year [2] - Revenue from ordinary products was 2.3600652 billion yuan, representing 29.89% of the main business revenue, slightly up from 2.3239278 billion yuan year-on-year [2] - Total revenue amounted to 7.8958354 billion yuan, compared to 7.3877439 billion yuan in the previous year [2] Channel Performance - Revenue from traditional offline channels was 7.4896936 billion yuan, a growth of 6.02% year-on-year, with costs increasing by 3.97% [3] - Revenue from key account (KA) channels reached 270.2745 million yuan, up 23.04%, with costs rising by 19.37% [3] - E-commerce channels generated 135.8673 million yuan in revenue, reflecting a 30.79% increase, with costs increasing by 30.52% [3] Product Performance - Mid-to-high-end products generated 5.53577 billion yuan in revenue, a 9.32% increase, with costs at 2.6732984 billion yuan, up 6.25%, resulting in a gross margin of 51.71% [4] - Ordinary products brought in 2.3600652 billion yuan, a 1.56% increase, with costs at 1.6170216 billion yuan, up 2.80%, leading to a gross margin of 31.48% [4] Market Expansion Initiatives - The company is advancing the "Hundred Counties Project" to deepen market upgrades and has initiated the "Hundred Cities Project" to enhance high-end market presence [5] - Yanjing Beer continues to expand its community tavern network and is establishing flagship stores for craft beer in first-tier cities [5] - Key products such as Yanjing U8, Yanjing U8 Plus, and various craft beers have shown strong sales performance [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown strong performance in its U8 product line, with non-recurring profit exceeding expectations. The revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 8.558 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.37%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.103 billion yuan, up 45.45% year-on-year [7] - The company is focusing on enhancing its market presence in key regions and improving its product recognition through online and offline channels, aiming for sustained growth in the U8 segment [7] - The company has maintained an improving gross profit margin, with a net profit margin exceeding 20% in Q2 2025, indicating effective cost management and operational efficiency [7] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 14.213 billion yuan in 2023, 14.667 billion yuan in 2024, 15.436 billion yuan in 2025, 16.230 billion yuan in 2026, and 17.010 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.66%, 3.20%, 5.24%, 5.15%, and 4.80% respectively [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 644.71 million yuan in 2023, 1.05568 billion yuan in 2024, 1.60253 billion yuan in 2025, 1.92588 billion yuan in 2026, and 2.27416 billion yuan in 2027, with significant growth rates of 83.02%, 63.74%, 51.80%, 20.18%, and 18.08% respectively [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.23 yuan in 2023, 0.37 yuan in 2024, 0.57 yuan in 2025, 0.68 yuan in 2026, and 0.81 yuan in 2027 [1] Market Data Summary - The closing price of the company's stock is 13.12 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 36.979 billion yuan [5] - The company has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 57.36 for 2023, which is expected to decrease to 16.26 by 2027, indicating improving valuation as earnings grow [1][8]

Industry Overview - 2023 is expected to be a year of cross-industry collaboration in the beverage sector, with beer companies launching new drinks and liquor companies introducing beer and other non-liquor products [1] - The industry is witnessing a surge in new product launches, including high-end liquor, customized supermarket liquor, innovative yellow wine, craft beer, and low-alcohol pre-mixed drinks [1] Company Performance - Yanjing Beer reported a 2.03% increase in beer sales to 2.3517 million kiloliters in the first half of the year, with revenue reaching 8.558 billion yuan, a 6.37% increase, and net profit of 1.1 billion yuan, up 45.45% [1] - Huichuan Beer achieved a net profit of approximately 39.57 million yuan, a 25.52% increase, with mid-to-high-end products contributing over 60% of its revenue [2] - Zhenjiu Lidong issued a profit warning, expecting revenue between 2.4 billion and 2.55 billion yuan, indicating a decline in revenue and net profit [3] New Product Launches - Zhenjiu Lidong launched its first high-end craft beer "Niu Shi News," priced at 88 yuan per 375ml bottle, using top fermentation techniques and premium ingredients [4] - Wuliangye Xianlin announced the release of its craft beer "Fenghuolun," set to launch on August 15, priced at 19.5 yuan for a 390ml bottle [4] - Kweichow Moutai's 70th-anniversary commemorative edition sold out quickly after its online release, priced at 700 yuan per bottle [5] - The new "Taiyuan Red" product from Moutai Health Wine Company was launched, maintaining the original price while offering upgraded quality [6] - Hema and Sichuan Liquor Group are set to launch three new liquor products this summer, with prices ranging from 27.9 yuan to 99 yuan [7] - Jinxing Beer introduced a new watermelon-flavored craft beer, maintaining consistency with previous product offerings [8] - RIO launched three new pre-mixed drinks with an alcohol content of 12 degrees, priced at 29.9 yuan each [9] Industry Dynamics - The new national standard for Fengxiang liquor will be implemented in August 2026, replacing the previous standard [11] - Guizhou province reported a production volume of 159,000 kiloliters of liquor in the first half of the year, with a 3.8% increase in industrial added value [12] - Jiusu Liquor Company is focusing on optimizing product structure and enhancing market service capabilities in response to consumer demand [10]

Macroeconomic Overview - In July, China's CPI was 0.0% year-on-year, slightly better than the expected -0.1%, while the previous month's CPI was 0.1% [4] - Core CPI rose to 0.8% year-on-year, the highest since February 2024, compared to 0.7% in June [4] - July's PPI was -3.6% year-on-year, matching the lowest since July 2023, with a month-on-month decrease of -0.2% [5] Industry Insights - The construction machinery sector showed strong performance, with excavator sales reaching 17,138 units in July, a year-on-year increase of 25.2% [8] - Domestic excavator sales were 7,306 units, up 17.2%, while exports were 9,832 units, increasing by 31.9% [8] - The engineering machinery market is expected to benefit from significant national infrastructure projects, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [8] Semiconductor Sector - Texas Instruments (TI) announced a substantial price increase on over 60,000 products, with price hikes ranging from 10% to over 30% [8] - This price increase reflects a recovery in the industrial control market, suggesting an optimistic outlook for the domestic analog chip industry [9] Automotive Industry - In July, retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 1.826 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [11] - The retail sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) were 987,000 units, up 12.0% year-on-year, but down 11.2% month-on-month [11] - The export of NEVs in June was 256,000 units, a 92% increase, indicating a shift towards international markets for growth [11] Consumer Sector - Yanjing Beer reported a revenue of 8.56 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.4% [13] - The net profit for the same period was 1.11 billion yuan, up 45.4%, indicating strong performance in the consumer market [13] - The company is focusing on strategic expansion and upgrading sales channels to enhance market presence [13]

Core Insights - In total, 6 companies released their semi-annual reports for 2025 on August 11, with 4 companies reporting year-on-year profit growth and 2 companies showing a decline [1] - All 6 companies experienced year-on-year revenue growth, with 4 companies achieving simultaneous growth in both net profit and revenue [1] - The company with the highest profit growth was Changqing Co., with a remarkable increase of 117.75% [1] Company Summaries - **Changqing Co. (002391)** - Earnings per share: 0.0676 yuan - Net profit: 42.28 million yuan - Net profit year-on-year growth: 117.75% - Revenue: 2082.97 million yuan - Revenue year-on-year growth: 7.28% [1] - **Yanjing Beer (000729)** - Earnings per share: 0.3913 yuan - Net profit: 1102.82 million yuan - Net profit year-on-year growth: 45.45% - Revenue: 8558.24 million yuan - Revenue year-on-year growth: 6.37% [1] - **Industrial Fulian (601138)** - Earnings per share: 0.6100 yuan - Net profit: 12113.36 million yuan - Net profit year-on-year growth: 38.61% - Revenue: 36075.97 million yuan - Revenue year-on-year growth: 35.58% [1] - **Kaipu Testing (003008)** - Earnings per share: 0.3900 yuan - Net profit: 4.08 million yuan - Net profit year-on-year growth: 3.73% - Revenue: 111.33 million yuan - Revenue year-on-year growth: 3.23% [1] - **Jinghua New Materials (603683)** - Earnings per share: 0.1431 yuan - Net profit: 3.77 million yuan - Net profit year-on-year growth: -7.30% - Revenue: 94.66 million yuan - Revenue year-on-year growth: 10.53% [1] - **Baiwei Storage (688525)** - Earnings per share: -0.5100 yuan - Net profit: -22.58 million yuan - Net profit year-on-year growth: -179.68% - Revenue: 391.23 million yuan - Revenue year-on-year growth: 13.70% [1]

Summary of the Beer Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The Chinese beer industry has experienced stable sales from 2018 to 2024, with an average annual price increase of approximately 4% [1][2] - Major players like China Resources and Tsingtao have significantly raised winter prices, but sales are expected to face pressure in the first half of 2025 due to alcohol bans and poor restaurant performance [1][3] Key Company Insights Zhujiang Beer - Zhujiang Beer has increased its market share in Guangdong, benefiting from product structure optimization and marketing strategies [1][8] - The company aims to exceed 400,000 tons in sales for 2025, with a mid-term target of 700,000 tons [1][8] Yanjing Beer - Yanjing Beer reported a profit growth rate of 40%-50% in Q2, driven by the U8 product line [1][9] - The company expects a 20%-30% growth in 2025, targeting total sales of 850,000 to 900,000 tons, with a mid-term goal of 1.2 million tons [1][9] Tsingtao Beer - Tsingtao Beer is undergoing inventory reduction and leadership changes, facing challenges from alcohol bans and regional adjustments in 2025 [1][10] - The company anticipates stable dividend rates above 70%, with a Hong Kong stock dividend yield of 5-6% [1][10] Industry Challenges and Trends - The beer industry is expected to maintain some resilience in 2025, but faces significant pressures from slowing winter price growth and the impact of alcohol bans on sales [3][4] - The overall consumption power and decision-making ability of consumers are crucial for maintaining sales performance [4][5] Market Dynamics - The Chinese beer market shows resilience despite a weak overall environment, with companies like Zhujiang and Yanjing performing well in the food and beverage sector [6][11] - The middle-income demographic is driving consumption upgrades, particularly in central provinces [11][12] Cost and Profitability Outlook - Costs for mainstream beer companies are projected to decrease by about 2% annually from 2024 to 2025, with net profit margins expected to exceed 10% [3][14] - The long-term price potential for Chinese beer is significant, with current winter factory prices ranging from 3,500 to 4,000 RMB, compared to much higher prices in North America [15][16] Sales Channels and Consumer Trends - Major sales channels include down-stream distribution, instant retail, and live streaming sales, each accounting for approximately 50% of the market [19] - Instant retail has notably boosted sales in first- and second-tier cities, with significant growth in transaction volumes [17] Future Directions and Investment Opportunities - The future direction of the beer industry will focus on brands like Qingpi, China Resources, and Yanjing, which are expected to benefit from underlying consumer strength despite current challenges [20][22] - Companies like Yanjing, Zhujiang, and Tsingtao are recommended as key investment targets for the next two to three years due to their growth potential and market positioning [22]

Core Insights - Yanjing Beer (000729.SZ) reported a total operating revenue of 8.558 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, marking an increase of 512 million yuan compared to the same period last year, achieving a 6.37% year-on-year growth [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.103 billion yuan, an increase of 345 million yuan year-on-year, reflecting a significant growth of 45.45% [1] - The net cash inflow from operating activities was 2.816 billion yuan, up by 242 million yuan from the previous year, representing a 9.40% increase [1] Financial Ratios - The latest debt-to-asset ratio stands at 31.94%, a decrease of 0.88 percentage points from the previous quarter and a reduction of 5.59 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The gross profit margin is reported at 45.50%, an increase of 2.71 percentage points from the previous quarter and a 2.14 percentage points increase year-on-year [3] - Return on equity (ROE) is at 7.01%, up by 1.82 percentage points compared to the same period last year [3] Earnings Per Share and Turnover Ratios - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) is 0.39 yuan, an increase of 0.12 yuan year-on-year, achieving a growth of 45.46% [3] - The total asset turnover ratio is 0.36 times, an increase of 0.01 times year-on-year, reflecting a 2.45% growth [3] - The inventory turnover ratio remains stable at 1.19 times compared to the previous year, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.21% [3] Shareholder Structure - The number of shareholders is reported at 47,400, with the top ten shareholders holding a total of 1.943 billion shares, accounting for 68.94% of the total share capital [3] - The largest shareholder is Beijing Yanjing Beer Investment Co., Ltd., holding 5.741 billion shares [3]

据Wind数据统计显示，8月11日，社保基金现身燕京啤酒前十大流通股东，合计持股3802.53万股，合计 持股市值达4.92亿元。 (本文来自第一财经) 截至8月11日，社保基金二季度共现身32只个股前十大流通股东，合计持股6.28亿股，合计持股市值达 93.68亿元。其中，13只个股持股数量超千万，常熟银行、燕京啤酒、东方雨虹持股数量居前，社保基 金分别持有2.78亿股、0.38亿股、0.38亿股。从社保基金持股行业分布来看，主要集中在制药、化工、 家庭耐用消费品，分别有3只、3只、3只。 ...

第 691期 2025-08-11 宏观要闻 老牌芯片公司重启IPO！曾结束中国无"芯"历史 8月10日消息，中国证监会官网显示，中星微技术股份有限公司（以下简称中星微技术）已启动上市辅导，拟在科创板 上市，辅导机构为银河证券。 新央企董事长拜访华为 8月9日晚，中国长安汽车集团董事长朱华荣发文称，他近日前往深圳拜访了华为公司创始人兼CEO任正非，并围绕产 业竞争态势、未来竞争格局等交流学习。朱华荣透露，任正非就支持长安汽车、阿维塔品牌等提出针对性、指导性意 见。另外，朱华荣还对徐直军、余承东等华为高管的交流支持表达感谢。 奇葩！公司亏损，总经理要求月薪200万？股东怒了 焦点事件 从新三板摘牌退市的机器人企业伯朗特，意外"火了"。近期，记者关注到，有网友在社交平台上分享伯朗特的"奇 葩"故事：董事长、总经理尹荣造要求自己固定月薪200万元、年终奖为"公司利润-1元"，但被董事会予以否决。记者 查询寻伯朗特相关公告发现，该情况属实。 与此同时，伯朗特第十大股东嘉兴君岚投资合伙企业（有限合伙）（以下 简称嘉兴君岚）近期发布致全体股东的公开信，对尹荣造进行声讨，并要求修改公司章程、恢复正常治理结构。 7月份CPI ...