中国工业经济学会名誉会长，国务院原副秘书长，国家数据专家咨询委员会主任江小涓；复旦大学美国 研究中心副主任、教授、博士生导师赵明昊；中国石油和化学工业联合会副会长兼秘书长赵俊贵等先后 发言。 国海证券首席经济学家夏磊围绕2026年宏观经济展望进行了主题演讲，她认为我国经济根基扎实、潜力 巨大，具备发展长期向好的诸多有利因素。在宏观政策系统的规划部署下，经济运行有望总体平稳。促 消费、稳投资激发内生动力，锚定新质生产力、推动产业升级，实现经济质升量增。中国经济必将在变 局中突围，在突围中成长。 26日下午，同步举办了资产配置、AIGC、人形机器人、关键金属、出海东盟、科技前瞻、新材料新制 造、医疗AI与创新八大热点交流会。会议期间，国海证券研究所还与上海有色网（SMM）、新材料在 线进行了战略合作签约。（颜园园、李柏涛） 编辑：赵鼎 转自：新华财经 为充分发挥证券公司在"产业-科技-金融"一体化发展中的关键纽带作用和综合金融服务优势，11月26 日，国海证券以"桂启新程"为题在广西南宁举办2026资本市场年会。本次年会为期三天，以"一大主会 场+八大平行分会场+上市公司交流"的方式召开，吸引500余家上市公司、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The financial industry is focusing on empowering regional high-quality development through integrated services in industry, technology, and finance [1] Group 1: Event Overview - Guohai Securities held its 2026 Capital Market Annual Conference in Nanning, marking the first time the annual strategy meeting was hosted at its headquarters, reflecting the company's commitment to local industry upgrades and new productivity cultivation [4][5] - The event attracted over 2,000 attendees, including more than 500 listed companies and over 60 experts from various fields, indicating strong interest and participation in the capital market [5] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Guohai Securities' Chief Economist Xia Lei emphasized that China's economic foundation is solid, with significant potential for long-term growth, supported by macro policy planning [8] - Consumption is identified as the main engine for economic growth, contributing 53.5% to GDP growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with a net export contribution of 29% [8] - The structure of export products has shifted from labor-intensive to high-value-added industries, with the share of electromechanical products in exports rising from 7.8% in 1980 to 60.7% by October 2025 [8] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The roundtable discussion highlighted that the stock market is expected to enter a phase driven by both valuation and performance in 2026, with a focus on emerging sectors such as AI, robotics, and innovative pharmaceuticals [10] - Guohai Securities' Chief Asset Allocation Officer noted that the A-share market remains in a long-term slow bull phase, with opportunities in the bond market due to a favorable domestic policy environment [10][11] - The fixed income chief projected that interest rates will remain low, with a stable bond market outlook, suggesting opportunities for segment trading in a fluctuating market [11]

Group 1 - The 2026 Capital Market Annual Conference organized by Guohai Securities in Nanning, Guangxi, attracted over 500 listed companies and more than 2,000 attendees on the first day, highlighting the importance of capital markets in supporting local economic development [1][2] - The conference emphasized the integration of artificial intelligence and finance, aiming to create a "North-South R&D + Guangxi Integration + ASEAN Application" development path, which is crucial for the advancement of key metal industries in Guangxi [1][2] - Guohai Securities aims to facilitate a positive cycle between industry, technology, and finance, enhancing local industrial upgrades and fostering new productive forces [2] Group 2 - The chief economist of Guohai Securities, Xia Lei, presented a macroeconomic outlook for 2026, indicating that China's economic foundation is solid and has significant potential for long-term growth, supported by effective macro policies [2] - The roundtable discussion highlighted expectations for a bull market driven by both valuation and earnings in 2026, with a focus on emerging sectors such as AI, robotics, and innovative pharmaceuticals, as well as cyclical assets like non-ferrous metals and chemicals [3] - The conference also featured strategic cooperation agreements between Guohai Securities and organizations like Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network, indicating a commitment to enhancing collaboration in key sectors [3]

Market Overview - On November 24, the securities sector rose by 0.22% compared to the previous trading day, with Guolian Minsheng leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3836.77, up 0.05%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12585.08, up 0.37% [1] Top Gainers - Guolian Minsheng (601456) closed at 10.40, up 2.87% with a trading volume of 297,600 shares and a turnover of 304 million yuan [1] - Guosheng Securities (002670) closed at 17.86, up 2.76% with a trading volume of 444,300 shares and a turnover of 788 million yuan [1] - Industrial Securities (601377) closed at 6.69, up 2.14% with a trading volume of 941,000 shares and a turnover of 625 million yuan [1] Top Losers - Shouchao Securities (601136) closed at 20.20, down 2.27% with a trading volume of 375,700 shares and a turnover of 757 million yuan [2] - Changjiang Securities (000783) closed at 7.92, down 1.12% with a trading volume of 849,100 shares and a turnover of 679 million yuan [2] - Sihai Securities (600369) closed at 4.40, down 0.90% with a trading volume of 642,200 shares and a turnover of 284 million yuan [2] Fund Flow Analysis - The securities sector experienced a net outflow of 1.283 billion yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 914 million yuan [2] - Among individual stocks, Guosheng Securities had a net inflow of 48.03 million yuan from institutional investors, while it faced a net outflow of 22.88 million yuan from speculative funds [3] - Dongfang Securities recorded a net inflow of 31.53 million yuan from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 10.96 million yuan from speculative funds [3]

2025年10月我国摩托车出口保持较高景气度 智通财经APP获悉，国海证券发布研报称，摩托车出口仍然保持较高景气度，2025年10月摩托车出口 yoy+10%，景气持续，维持"推荐"评级。从出口总量维度看，亚非拉为主要出口地区，非洲和亚洲继续 保持较高增速，分别同比+15.0%/+42.9%。从出口>250cc维度看，除拉丁美洲外同比均保持增长。 国海证券主要观点如下： 主要的出口地区非洲和亚洲仍然保持较高增速 从出口>250cc维度看，2025年10月核心出口国家或区域及增速如下：拉丁美洲：出口33836台，同 比-17%;欧洲：出口21481台，同比+72%;亚洲：出口5451台，同比+48%;北美洲：出口958台，同比 +594%;非洲：出口1053台，同比+23%;大洋洲：出口671台，同比+36%。 风险提示：中大排量摩托车增速不及预期;禁限摩政策影响;关税加征风险;市场需求下行风险;汇率波动 风险;原材料价格大幅度波动风险;中美贸易摩擦超预期风险;本数据为跟踪数据，仅供参考，不构成投资 建议。 根据海关总署，总体来看，摩托车出口保持较高同比增速：2025年10月，摩托车出口141万辆， yoy+1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guohai Securities highlights the increasing electricity demand driven by the rapid development of AI Data Centers (AIDC), with projections indicating a significant rise in electricity consumption in the U.S. data centers from 196 TWh in 2023 to 672 TWh by 2028, increasing its share from 4.5% to 14.6% [1][2]. Group 1: Data Center Development and Electricity Demand - The construction of data centers is booming, leading to heightened requirements for power stability. The combined capital expenditure (CAPEX) of the four major cloud providers in North America (Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Meta) and domestic companies like Alibaba and Tencent is expected to grow by 57% and 169% respectively in 2024, with further increases anticipated in 2025 [1]. - The AIDC trend is characterized by large-scale, high power density, and high energy consumption, which is driving continuous growth in electricity demand [1][2]. Group 2: Impact on Power Supply and Storage Needs - The concentrated construction of AI data centers in North America is expected to create regional shocks to the power grid, exacerbated by a tight supply of gas turbines and mismatched electricity supply and demand, leading to increased risks of power outages [2]. - The demand for energy storage has shifted from being an optional configuration to a necessity for data centers, with battery energy storage systems (BESS) being crucial for stabilizing load fluctuations [3]. Group 3: Market Potential for Energy Storage - The global and Chinese data center energy storage market is projected to reach 212 GWh and 98.8 GWh respectively by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 49% from 2023 to 2030 [4]. - In the U.S., the demand for energy storage in data centers is expected to increase from 11 GWh in 2025 to 116 GWh by 2030, reflecting a CAGR of 62% from 2025 to 2030 [4]. Group 4: Key Companies to Watch - CATL (300750.SZ) is recognized as a leader in the lithium battery industry, with global capacity expansion driving growth in data center energy storage [5]. - EVE Energy (300014.SZ) has a forward-looking layout in energy storage, providing comprehensive backup solutions for AIDC [5]. - Sungrow Power Supply (300274.SZ) is experiencing strong growth in its energy storage business, with synergies in power electronics technology expected to enhance its future positioning in HVDC/SST power supply [5]. - Aotes (688472.SH) is noted for its stable operations and strong breakthroughs in photovoltaic strategies and energy storage, benefiting from the growing demand for data center energy storage [5]. - Tongrun Equipment (002150.SZ) focuses on high-profit markets, with accelerated replacement of string inverters in the U.S. opening up future growth opportunities in energy storage systems [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the volatility of global risk assets is primarily due to liquidity issues and an over-reliance on AI narratives, leading to necessary valuation corrections when industrial development lags behind market expectations [1] - The recent adjustments in the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets may present opportunities for investors to reallocate towards equities, particularly in traditional manufacturing and resource sectors [1][5] - The market is currently experiencing a "three-phase overlap," characterized by a consolidation phase in the middle of a bull market, a critical period for verifying economic conditions, and a policy vacuum affecting performance [3] Group 2 - The Chinese stock market is expected to stabilize and potentially rally in the coming months, with a focus on AI applications, robotics, and domestic consumption as key themes [2] - The recent adjustments in the A-share market are attributed to weak domestic economic data, a strong dollar, and year-end profit-taking, with expectations for a recovery following important policy meetings in December [5][10] - The current market environment is marked by high volatility, necessitating a focus on safety margins in investment strategies, particularly in sectors like food and beverage, textiles, and cyclical industries [4][11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The bond market was volatile this week. In a sideways environment, the spread changes of individual bonds are more worthy of attention. The liquidity of the 25 Attached Interest 02 bond in the 30Y Treasury bonds increased significantly this week, once exceeding that of the 25 Special 02 bond. The report focuses on three questions: why the liquidity of the Attached Interest 02 bond improved significantly, which bond might become the active bond in the future, and what the current operation suggestions are [5][11]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 This Week's Bond Market Review - The bond market was volatile this week. The liquidity of the 25 Attached Interest 02 bond in the 30Y Treasury bonds increased significantly, once exceeding that of the 25 Special 02 bond [5][11]. - The reasons for the significant improvement in the liquidity of the Attached Interest 02 bond may be twofold. Firstly, there is speculation that the next issuance scale will exceed expectations. According to the Ministry of Finance's issuance plan, the ordinary Treasury bonds will be re - issued on December 5, and the issuance scale will be known about one week in advance. The previous issuance scale of the Attached Interest 02 bond was 27 billion yuan, and the market is speculating that the issuance scale of the last issue of the Attached Interest 02 bond this year may exceed expectations, so the liquidity will improve. Historically, the issuance scale of the last issue of the 230023 bond was about twice that of the previous issue. Secondly, the market is speculating that the year - end issuance plan includes the Attached Interest 02 bond. Historically, special Treasury bonds have never been issued across years, but ordinary Treasury bonds have. As the end of the year is the final time point, as long as the expectation remains, the price may fluctuate repeatedly [5][11]. - Regarding which bond may become the active bond in the future, without considering other market sentiment disturbances, there are two time points worthy of attention: the disclosure time of the issuance scale of the Attached Interest 02 bond (around the end of November) and the year - end issuance plan of the Ministry of Finance. For the upcoming second re - issuance, if the issuance scale of the Attached Interest 02 bond exceeds expectations, its status as an active bond will be consolidated; if it is still small or fails to meet expectations, the Special 06 bond will continue to be the active bond, but the Attached Interest 02 bond may have an "active bond expectation" again by the end of the year. For the year - end issuance plan, if it is a re - issuance of the Attached Interest 02 bond, it may strengthen; if it is a new code, the pattern of active and sub - active bonds may not change significantly after the end of the year [5][12]. - For current operations, if choosing band trading, avoid 30 - year varieties; if choosing to allocate 30 - year varieties, both the Attached Interest 02 and Special 06 bonds can be held to hedge against possible spread fluctuations; if only adding a single bond in the short term, pay attention to the disturbances caused by the subsequent re - issuance scale of the Attached Interest 02 bond and trade in a timely manner [6][13][14]. 3.2 Bond Yield Curve Tracking - **Key Maturity Interest Rates and Spread Changes**: As of November 21, compared with November 17, the 1Y Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.56bp to 1.40%; the 10Y Treasury bond yield increased by 0.57bp to 1.82%; the 30Y Treasury bond yield increased by 1.85bp to 2.16%. The spread between the 30Y and 10Y Treasury bonds increased by 1.28bp to 34.10bp, and the spread between the 10Y CDB bond and 10Y Treasury bond increased by 0.28bp to 12.49bp [15]. - **Treasury Bond Maturity Spread Changes**: As of November 21, compared with November 17, the 3Y - 1Y Treasury bond spread increased by 0.23bp to 3.40bp, the 5Y - 3Y Treasury bond spread increased by 0.94bp to 15.59bp, the 7Y - 5Y Treasury bond spread decreased by 0.85bp to 11.46bp, the 10Y - 7Y Treasury bond spread increased by 0.81bp to 11.13bp, the 20Y - 10Y Treasury bond spread increased by 2.09bp to 34.09bp, and the 30Y - 20Y Treasury bond spread decreased by 0.81bp to 0.01bp [16]. 3.3 Bond Market Leverage and Funding Situation - **Balance of Inter - bank Pledged Repurchase**: As of November 21, compared with November 17, the balance of inter - bank pledged repurchase increased by 0.44 trillion yuan to 11.50 trillion yuan [19]. - **Change in Inter - bank Bond Market Leverage Ratio**: As of November 21, compared with November 17, the inter - bank bond market leverage ratio increased by 0.27pct to 106.89% [22]. - **Pledged Repurchase Turnover**: From November 17 to November 21, the average daily turnover of pledged repurchase was 7.29 trillion yuan, and the average overnight turnover was about 6.48 trillion yuan, with an average overnight turnover ratio of 88.86% [23][24]. - **Inter - bank Funding Operation Situation**: From November 17 to November 21, bank funds for lending continued to rise. As of November 21, the net lending of large state - owned banks and policy banks was 4.09 trillion yuan, the net borrowing of joint - stock banks and urban and rural commercial banks was 0.22 trillion yuan, and the net lending of the banking system was 3.88 trillion yuan. The daily lending amount of banks first decreased and then increased. As of November 21, the daily lending amount of large state - owned banks and policy banks was 3.66 trillion yuan, and that of small and medium - sized banks was 0.32 trillion yuan. In terms of funding rates, as of November 21, DR001 was 1.3209%, DR007 was 1.4408%, R001 was 1.3877%, and R007 was 1.4952% [27]. 3.4 Duration of Medium - and Long - Term Bond Funds - **Median Duration of Bond Funds**: As of November 21, the median duration of medium - and long - term bond funds (de - leveraged) was 2.76 years, an increase of 0.02 years compared with November 17; the median duration (including leverage) was 3.00 years, an increase of 0.06 years compared with November 17 [36]. - **Median Duration of Interest - Rate Bond Funds**: As of November 21, the median duration of interest - rate bond funds (including leverage) was 3.89 years, an increase of 0.01 years compared with November 17; the median duration of credit bond funds (including leverage) was 2.76 years, an increase of 0.06 years compared with November 17. The median duration of interest - rate bond funds (de - leveraged) was 3.36 years, unchanged from November 17, and the median duration of credit bond funds (including leverage) was 2.57 years, an increase of 0.03 years compared with November 17 [39][41]. 3.5 Change in Bond Lending Balance As of November 20, compared with November 17, the borrowing volume of 10Y CDB bonds showed volatility [43].

Group 1 - Shenghong Co., Ltd. announced that it will hold an investor meeting on November 20, 2025, from 10:00 to 11:00 and 14:00 to 17:00, where representatives will answer questions from investors [1] - The meeting will be attended by Ms. Yang Ning, the company's securities affairs representative, and Mr. Zhang Yuan, the director of investor relations [1] Group 2 - The article highlights the importance of AI in empowering various industries while also considering its impact on employment and income polarization [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Xindata (SZ 002983) has announced its participation in a research meeting with Guohai Securities, where the company's board secretary and CFO, Tang Xiansheng, addressed investor inquiries [1] - For the first half of 2025, Xindata's revenue composition is entirely from the manufacturing of computers, communications, and other electronic devices, accounting for 100.0% [1] - As of the report date, Xindata's market capitalization stands at 4.3 billion yuan [2]