2025年12月31日，盐湖股份发布2025年度业绩预告，预计公司全年净利润实现大幅增长，归属于上市公司股东的净利润同比增幅最高可达90.65%，扣除 非经常性损益后的净利润同比最高增长100.66%。 2025年12月31日，盐湖股份发布2025年度业绩预告，预计公司全年净利润实现大幅增长，归属于上市公司股东的净利润同比增幅最高可达90.65%，扣除 非经常性损益后的净利润同比最高增长100.66%。 业绩预告显示，2025年1月1日至12月31日期间，盐湖股份归属于上市公司股东的净利润预计为829,000万元至889,000万元，上年同期该数据为466,311.65万 元，同比增长77.78%至90.65%；扣除非经常性损益后的净利润预计为823,000万元至883,000万元，较上年同期的440,051.86万元增长87.02%至100.66%；基 本每股收益预计为1.56元/股至1.69元/股，上年同期为0.8812元/股。 对于业绩大幅增长的原因，盐湖股份表示主要有两方面因素。 一方面，公司主营业务保持稳健发展，2025年氯化钾产量约490万吨，销量约381.43万吨；碳酸锂产量约4.65万吨，销量 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 有色金属行业周报（20251229-20260102） 推荐（维持） 金属供给刚性逻辑持续，期待春季躁动下表现 观点：我们建议关注春季躁动行情下电解铝的弹性和红利属性。从基本面看， 本周全球铝安全库存总体仍维持低位，海外项目因电力问题减产预期在持续发 酵，未来 2-3 年全球供需或维持紧平衡，库存或维持低位对铝价形成支撑。从 金融属性看，本周国内外铜铝比虽然环比上周有所回落，但依然维持历史高位， 铝补涨空间仍存，考虑美国当前铝面临高升水，若未来缺电逻辑造成美国地区 减产，铝上涨弹性或更强，静待春季躁动行情叠加铜铝比修复带来的铝价弹性。 我们持续看好电解铝红利属性，我们预计本周电解铝行业平均利润提升至 6000 以上，预计未来电解铝利润有望维持高位。从分红意愿看，因为这几年 电解铝企业总体进入现金流持续修复和盈利稳定性提升的阶段，并且由于行业 未来资本开支强度较低，上市公司普遍具备提高回馈股东的能力和意愿，红利 资产属性逐步凸显，看好电解铝行业弹性和红利属性。 观点：我们认为公司 2025 年业绩符合预期，公司作为全球矿业龙头，核心金 属稳步扩张，预计公司 2025 年 Q4 实现归母净 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Salt Lake Co. plans to acquire a 51% stake in Minmetals Salt Lake from its controlling shareholder, China Salt Lake, for approximately 4.605 billion yuan, which will make Minmetals Salt Lake a subsidiary of Salt Lake Co. [1] - This acquisition aims to resolve the competition issue between the listed company and its controlling shareholder, facilitating resource integration and enhancing the company's leadership role in the global salt lake industry [1] - Salt Lake Co. has set a "three-step" development strategy, targeting the establishment of a world-class salt lake industry by 2025 and aiming for production goals of 10 million tons/year of potash fertilizer and 200,000 tons/year of lithium salts by 2030 [1] Group 2 - Minmetals Salt Lake has shown stable profitability, with projected revenues of 2.084 billion yuan and a net profit of 690 million yuan for 2024, and a commitment from China Salt Lake for net profits of no less than 668 million yuan, 692 million yuan, and 745 million yuan for the years 2026 to 2028 [2] - Salt Lake Co. primarily relies on potash fertilizer and lithium carbonate, with a production capacity of 5 million tons/year of potash fertilizer, ranking fourth globally, and an increased annual capacity of 80,000 tons for lithium carbonate [2] - Following the consolidation with Minmetals Salt Lake, Salt Lake Co.'s production capacity for potash fertilizer and lithium carbonate is expected to increase by 6% and 18.8%, respectively [2] - Salt Lake Co. reported a strong recovery in performance, with Q3 revenues of 4.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.81%, and a net profit of 1.988 billion yuan, up 113.97% year-on-year [2]

Core Viewpoint - Salt Lake Co. is expected to achieve significant growth in net profit for the year 2025, with a potential increase of up to 90.65% year-on-year, driven by stable business performance and favorable pricing trends in key products [2][3] Group 1: Financial Performance - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is estimated to be between 829 million and 889 million yuan, compared to 466.31 million yuan in the previous year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 77.78% to 90.65% [2] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is expected to be between 823 million and 883 million yuan, up from 440.05 million yuan last year, indicating a growth of 87.02% to 100.66% [2] - The basic earnings per share are projected to be between 1.56 yuan and 1.69 yuan, compared to 0.8812 yuan per share in the previous year [2] Group 2: Growth Drivers - The company's main business has shown steady development, with an estimated production of approximately 4.9 million tons of potassium chloride and sales of about 3.81 million tons in 2025 [3] - The production of lithium carbonate is expected to be around 46,500 tons, with sales of approximately 45,600 tons [3] - The prices of potassium chloride products have increased compared to the previous year, while lithium carbonate prices have shown volatility but are gradually recovering in the second half of the year, contributing to the overall growth in performance [3] - The successful re-examination of high-tech enterprise qualifications has allowed the company to recognize deferred tax assets based on accounting standards, further enhancing net profit [3]

此外，通过降低解吸温度、回收低品位热能的创新实践，该公司碳酸锂单位生产成本较预算显著下降， 突破行业长期存在的"高耗低效"瓶颈，构建起突出的成本优势。目前，产品纯度稳定在99.7%以上，整 体运营效率保持在较高水平。 新建锂盐项目自2022年5月起立项建设，于2025年9月28日正式投产。该公司通过强化全过程管控，实 现"投产即量产"的高效开局，并在"决战四季度"的关键阶段，持续优化试车方案和运行参数，推动产量 节节攀升。2025年11月，碳酸锂产量达1700吨，完成月度计划的113%，环比增长4%。 中化新网讯 2025年12月29日，青海盐湖工业股份有限公司锂电科技分公司(以下简称盐湖锂电)圆满完成 年度生产经营任务，新建锂盐项目实现了产能的快速爬坡与品质的稳步提升，交出了一份亮眼的"成绩 单"。 在科技创新方面，盐湖锂电引入"连续离子交换移动床+膜耦合"先进工艺，推动产业高端化、智能化、 绿色化转型。实际运行数据显示，成锂卤水平均锂含量达0.2417g/L，明显优于0.2g/L的设计值，单吨碳 酸锂卤水消耗量显著下降，综合能耗指标持续优化。 在安全生产方面，盐湖锂电以"雷霆行动"为抓手，系统构建全员安全 ...

Group 1: Macro News - The U.S. military successfully executed an operation to arrest Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife, who are now on a U.S. warship and will face charges in New York [1][2] - The Venezuelan government condemned the U.S. actions as a severe military invasion and declared a national emergency [1] - The Chinese government expressed strong condemnation of the U.S. military action, calling it a violation of international law and an infringement on Venezuela's sovereignty [2] - France's Foreign Minister stated that the U.S. military action against Venezuela violates the principle of non-use of force established by international law [3] - Russia's Foreign Ministry called for the immediate release of Maduro and his wife, emphasizing the need for dialogue to resolve issues between the U.S. and Venezuela [3] - The UN Secretary-General expressed shock at the escalation of the situation in Venezuela, warning of potential regional impacts from the U.S. military actions [3] Group 2: Industry Information - The global sovereign wealth fund assets reached a record high of $15 trillion, with increased investments in the technology sector, particularly in AI and digitalization [6] - The National Integrated Circuit Fund increased its stake in SMIC from 4.79% to 9.25% [10] - BYD reported December 2025 sales of 420,398 new energy vehicles, with a total annual sales of 4,602,436 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.73% [10] - Baidu plans to spin off Kunlun Chip and seek independent listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [11]

Investment Expansion - CATL has signed an investment cooperation agreement for a new 30GWh power and energy storage battery production base in Guizhou, expanding its existing facility which already has a 30GWh capacity [1] - Capchem plans to invest up to 200 million RMB in Poland to enhance its lithium-ion battery materials production capacity by 50,000 tons per year through technical upgrades [2] - Capchem also announced a project in Saudi Arabia with an investment of approximately 260 million USD to produce 200,000 tons of carbonate solvent and 100,000 tons of ethylene glycol [3] - Hanchuang has launched a 4.8 billion RMB project in Ningxia to produce 130,000 tons of lithium manganese iron phosphate annually, enhancing the local battery materials industry [4] Production Commencement - CATL's subsidiary, Yichang Bangpu, has officially launched a new 450,000 tons per year lithium iron phosphate project, achieving a record of signing, starting, and completing the project within the same year [6][7] Major Projects and Developments - The largest independent energy storage demonstration project in China, with a capacity of 500,000 kW and 3 million kWh, has been completed in Inner Mongolia [8][9] - The largest all-vanadium flow battery energy storage station in China has been put into operation in Xinjiang, with a rated power of 200,000 kW and a storage capacity of 1 million kWh [10] Mergers and Acquisitions - Salt Lake Co. plans to acquire a 51% stake in Wenkang Salt Lake for 4.605 billion RMB to enhance its position in the salt lake industry [12] - Shengxin Lithium Energy intends to acquire a 30% stake in Qicheng Mining for 2.08 billion RMB, gaining full control over the company [13] Financing Activities - Taiblue New Energy has completed a financing round of over 400 million RMB to accelerate the production of solid-state batteries [14] - CATL is set to invest 2.563 billion RMB in Jiangxi Shenghua to gain a controlling stake in the company [15] Company Orders - CATL has signed contracts for 55 electric cargo ships, marking a significant milestone in the electric shipping industry [18] - LG Energy Solution has lost contracts worth 39 trillion KRW due to a client exiting the battery industry, impacting its revenue significantly [19]

Core Viewpoint - Seven companies in the A-share market have collectively announced optimistic performance forecasts for 2025, with expected year-on-year profit growth exceeding 300% for some, indicating strong recovery in specific industries and the ability of companies to navigate through cycles via product upgrades, cost control, and strategic mergers and acquisitions [1][4]. Group 1: Company Performance Highlights - Transfar Zhilian is expected to achieve a net profit of 6.5 billion to 7 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 256.07% to 361.57%, driven by high-margin product focus and strategic asset optimization [3][4]. - Tianci Materials anticipates a net profit of 11 billion to 16 billion yuan, with a growth of 127.31% to 230.63%, primarily due to the expanding demand for lithium-ion battery materials in the electric vehicle and energy storage markets [4][7]. - Guangku Technology forecasts a net profit increase of 152% to 172%, attributed to continuous investment in new product development and successful market expansion [4]. Group 2: Industry Trends and Drivers - The performance of companies related to the lithium battery supply chain has significantly improved, reflecting a recovery in both downstream demand and upstream material prices [6][7]. - Salt Lake Co. expects a net profit of 8.29 billion to 8.89 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 77.78% to 90.65%, driven by rising market prices for its main product, potassium chloride [7]. - The overall recovery in the lithium battery industry is characterized by strong end-market demand driving growth in midstream battery manufacturing and material production, which in turn supports upstream resource extraction and processing [7]. Group 3: Additional Company Insights - Shougang Co. has achieved growth through a commitment to high-end product transformation and cost reduction, enhancing profitability despite market challenges [5]. - Kidswant has implemented a "three expansion" strategy and accelerated its franchise model, particularly in lower-tier markets, resulting in over 50% growth [5]. - Huazhong Steel is expected to achieve positive net profit growth despite facing a one-time environmental tax payment of over 657 million yuan, showcasing its operational resilience through cost control and ongoing transformation efforts [5].

Core Viewpoint - A total of 7 companies in the A-share market have collectively announced their performance forecasts for 2025, with expected significant year-on-year growth, highlighting strong industry recovery and companies' capabilities in product upgrades, cost control, and strategic mergers and acquisitions [2]. Group 1: Company Performance Forecasts - Transfar Zhilian expects a net profit of 650 million to 700 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 256.07% to 361.57%, driven by high-margin product focus and asset optimization [3][4]. - Tianci Materials anticipates a net profit of 1.1 billion to 1.6 billion yuan, with a growth of 127.31% to 230.63%, primarily due to the expanding demand for lithium-ion battery materials in the electric vehicle and energy storage markets [4]. - Guangku Technology forecasts a net profit increase of 152% to 172%, attributed to continuous investment in new product development and successful market expansion [5]. - Shougang Co. expects a net profit of 920 million to 1.06 billion yuan, with a growth of 95.29% to 125.01%, driven by high-end product transformation and cost reduction [5]. - Yilong Co. predicts a net profit of 8.29 billion to 8.89 billion yuan, with a growth of 77.78% to 90.65%, reflecting the recovery of upstream resource prices [7]. - Kidswant anticipates a net profit of 275 million to 330 million yuan, with a growth of 51.72% to 82.06%, driven by its expansion strategy and market penetration [5]. - Hualing Steel expects a net profit of 2.6 billion to 3 billion yuan, with a growth of 27.97% to 47.66%, despite facing a one-time environmental tax payment [5]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The lithium battery supply chain is experiencing a significant recovery, with companies like Tianci Materials and Yilong Co. showing strong performance linked to robust downstream demand and rising material prices [6][7]. - Tianci Materials' growth signals a strong demand for battery materials driven by the global energy transition and increasing penetration of electric vehicles [7]. - Yilong Co.'s performance reflects the recovery of market prices for its main product, potassium chloride, and the stabilization of lithium carbonate prices, indicating a positive trend for the lithium battery materials industry [7]. Group 3: Additional Company Insights - Lixun Precision has forecasted a net profit of 16.518 billion to 17.186 billion yuan for 2025, with a growth of 23.59% to 28.59%, driven by its strong position in the refrigeration and air conditioning components market [9]. - Sanhua Intelligent Control expects a net profit of 3.874 billion to 4.648 billion yuan, with a growth of 25% to 50%, supported by its leading position in the automotive parts sector [9]. - Zijin Mining anticipates a net profit of 51 billion to 52 billion yuan, with a growth of 59% to 62%, driven by increased production and rising sales prices of its main mineral products [10].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium price rebound has led to a new phase of resource mergers and acquisitions, characterized by a "full industry chain game" as companies seek to secure upstream resources amid rising lithium carbonate prices [2][3]. Group 1: Mergers and Acquisitions - Shengxin Lithium Energy announced a cash acquisition of 30% equity in Sichuan Qicheng Mining for 2.08 billion yuan, aiming for full control and securing lithium resources from two mines [2][5]. - Salt Lake Co. disclosed plans to acquire 51% of Wenkang Salt Lake for 4.605 billion yuan, integrating its lithium production capacity into its financial statements [2][8]. - The combined value of these transactions is approximately 6.685 billion yuan, coinciding with lithium carbonate prices surpassing 100,000 yuan per ton [3]. Group 2: Resource Valuation and Production Capacity - The valuation of Qicheng Mining is approximately 6.933 billion yuan, consistent with previous funding rounds [6]. - The core asset of Qicheng Mining is the Yajian Muro Lithium Mine, with proven lithium oxide resources of 989,600 tons and a planned extraction capacity of 3 million tons per year [7]. - Wenkang Salt Lake's core asset, the Yili Ping Salt Lake, has established production capacities of 15,000 tons/year for lithium carbonate and 200 tons/year for lithium phosphate, among others [8][11]. Group 3: Industry Trends and Strategic Shifts - The trend in mergers is shifting from speculative assets to those with visible production and core processes, with a focus on achieving over 51% control [12][13]. - Companies are increasingly targeting upstream resources and key materials, as seen with Shengxin Lithium Energy's multiple acquisitions and Huazhong Holdings' purchase of Argentum Lithium [14]. - The integration of assets is becoming a primary tool for restructuring within the industry, as companies seek to enhance their competitive positions and resolve historical issues [15][16].