证券研究报告 | 2025年08月28日 五粮液（000858.SZ） 优于大市 2025Q2 收入同比正增，产品及渠道端展现韧性 2025H1 收入、净利润稳健增长，2025Q2 净利率略有承压。2025H1 公司实现营业 总收入 527.7 亿元/同比+4.2%，归母净利润 194.9 亿元/同比+2.3%。其中 2025Q2 营业总收入 158.3 亿元/同比+0.1%，归母净利润 46.3 亿元/同比-7.6%。 2025H1 五粮液产品收入增速快于平均，整体吨价略有下降。2025H1 公司酒类营 收 491.20 亿元/同比+4.26%（销量+44.59%/吨价-27.89%），其中：（1）五粮液 产品 2025H1 收入 410.0 亿元/同比+4.6%（销量+12.7%/吨价-7.3%），毛利率同 比-0.24pcts；吨价承压判断系 1618 及 39 度五粮液收入占比提升影响产品结构。 （2）其他酒产品 2025H1 收入 81.2 亿元/同比+2.7%（销量+58.5%/吨价-35.3%）， 毛利率同比-1.49pcts，预计主因 1）公司增加第一代五粮春铺货，其价格低于 五粮春整体水平； ...

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 52.771 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.19%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 19.492 billion yuan, up 2.28% year-on-year [1] - The company continues to enhance its product lineup, focusing on both high-end and mid-to-low-end markets, with significant sales growth in its core products [1][4] Revenue and Profitability - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 15.831 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.10% year-on-year, but the net profit decreased by 7.58% to 4.632 billion yuan [1] - The company's gross margin for H1 2025 was 76.83%, down 0.53 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 38.16%, down 0.99 percentage points [3] Product Performance - The revenue from the company's core products, including Wuliangye liquor, other alcoholic beverages, and plastic products, reached 40.998 billion yuan, 8.122 billion yuan, and 2.010 billion yuan respectively, with Wuliangye liquor sales volume increasing by 12.75% year-on-year [1] - New product launches include various Wuliangye variants, which are expected to enhance market presence and consumer engagement [1][4] Channel Development - The company has deepened its channel layout, with revenue from distribution and direct sales reaching 27.925 billion yuan and 21.195 billion yuan respectively, marking increases of 1.20% and 8.60% year-on-year [2] - The number of distributors for Wuliangye liquor decreased by 20 to 2,510, while the number of distributors for Wuliang Nuo Xiang liquor increased by 107 to 3,587 [2] Regional Performance - Revenue from different regions showed varied performance, with the eastern region achieving a revenue of 13.552 billion yuan, up 15.70% year-on-year, while the southern region saw a slight decline of 0.58% [2] Cost Management - The company's operating expense ratio for H1 2025 was 11.48%, a slight decrease from the previous year, with sales expenses accounting for 10.23% [3] - The company is focusing on cost control while increasing investment in research and development to enhance product quality and innovation [4] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 93.206 billion yuan, 99.986 billion yuan, and 110.613 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with net profits projected at 33.230 billion yuan, 35.723 billion yuan, and 39.870 billion yuan respectively [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][12]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 52.771 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.19%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 19.492 billion yuan, up 2.28% [2]. - The company is focusing on channel construction and deepening its market presence, with stable sales growth in the first half of 2025 [3][4]. - The gross margin for the company's products slightly decreased by 0.24 percentage points, and increased expenses affected the net profit margin in Q2 [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company's revenue from Wuliangye products and other liquor products was 40.998 billion yuan and 8.122 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 4.57% and 2.73%. Sales volume increased by 12.75% and 58.81%, while average prices decreased by 7.25% and 35.31% [3]. - The company's total revenue for Q2 2025 was 15.831 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 0.10%, but net profit decreased by 7.58% [2]. Channel Development - The company achieved steady growth in revenue from distribution and direct sales channels, with revenues of 27.925 billion yuan and 21.195 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 1.20% and 8.60% [4]. - The number of distributors for Wuliangye and Wuliang Nuo Xiang products decreased by 20 and increased by 127, respectively, while the number of specialty stores decreased by 18 [4]. Regional Performance - Revenue growth in the eastern region led the company, with H1 2025 revenues of 20.109 billion yuan, up 7.88%, compared to 21.886 billion yuan in the southern region (up 1.93%) and 7.124 billion yuan in the northern region (up 1.82%) [4]. Profitability and Forecast - The company's gross margin for H1 2025 was 76.83%, a decrease of 0.53 percentage points year-on-year, with the gross margins for Wuliangye and other liquor products at 86.45% and 60.74%, respectively [5]. - The report forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 30.835 billion yuan, 32.376 billion yuan, and 33.803 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -3.20%, 5.00%, and 4.41% [6].

火势波及Calistoga东部山区及Pope Valley，多家知名酒庄位于疏散区内，包括Eisele、Kelly Fleming Wines等。 1.张德芹提出茅台的三个"不会变" 2.华涛带队调研浙江市场 3.吴向东：600元价格带有望成白酒赛道新蓝海 4.金种子酒上半年营收4.84亿 5.伊力特上半年净利1.63亿 6.百润股份上半年酒类营收下降9.35% 7.酒便利上半年营收5.98亿 8.纳帕葡萄采收季再遭山火威胁 张德芹提出茅台的三个"不会变" 据贵州茅台微信公众号消息，8月26日，贵州茅台2025年新疆茅友嘉年华在喀什举行。会上，茅台集团党委书记、董事长张德芹表示，面向未来，茅台"尊重消费者"的初心不会变，茅台"以消费 晚会举行了公益助学捐赠，新疆广大经销商纷纷倾情投入，携手贵州茅台公益基金会向新疆青少年基金会捐赠100万元，用于建设100所"希望工程图书室"，同时向第三师图木舒克市第一中学喀 华涛带队调研浙江市场 据五粮液集团微信公众号消息，8月18日-23日，五粮液股份公司党委副书记、副董事长、总经理华涛率队赴浙江湖州、宁波等地，深入一线调研市场情况，指导营销工作。他表示，品牌运营商 对于下 ...

公 司 报 告 食品饮料 2025年08月28日 五粮液(000858.SZ) 收入平稳增长，合同负债稳定 推荐 ( 维持) 股价:126.62元 行情走势图 事项： 五粮液发布2025年中报，1H25实现营收528亿元，同比+4.2%，归母净利195 亿元，同比+2.3%；2Q25实现营收158亿元，同比+0.1%，归母净利46亿元， 同比-7.6%。 平安观点： 究 报 告 S1060521030001 相关研究报告 ZHANGJINYI112@pingan.com.cn 【平安证券】五粮液（000858.SZ）*年报点评*业绩 平稳增长，合同负债亮眼*推荐20250426 【平安证券】五粮液（000858.SZ）*季报点评*控速 健康发展，加大股东回馈*推荐20241030 王星云 投资咨询资格编号 S1060523100001 BVG933 wangxingyun937@pingan.com.cn 证券分析师 张晋溢 投资咨询资格编号 证 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

在酒业不确定性增大、存量竞争激烈的大环境下，行业龙头的压舱石作用和风向标意义愈发凸显。 8月27日晚间，五粮液披露了2025年半年度报告，报告期内公司实现营业收入527.71亿元，同比增长4.19%；归母净利润194.92亿元，同比增长 2.28%。 今年以来，五粮液以变应变、变中求进，改组五粮液品牌事业部为五粮液酒类销售公司，实施市场片区负责制和五级联动责任制，进一步贴近市场， 提升营销决策效率；配强营销高管队伍，加强市场化选才机制，有效提升市场管理成效。同时，五粮液还积极实施电商业务组织变革，组建专班、补充专 业化人才，多维提升应市能力。 "线上+线下"双线发力，渠道建设全面下沉。 据了解，五粮液"三店一家"网络上半年持续建设，合计新增242家，填补18个空白区县，新增进货终端7990家，产品铺货率显著提升。同时，公司精 准推进20个核心城市终端直配，缩短流通环节，终端订单稳步增长。值得一提的是，五粮液今年上半年开展的宴席场次及开瓶扫码数据，同比均保持两位 数增长，服务消费者超283万人次。 五粮液还在线上持续深化与京东、天猫、抖音等平台的战略合作，布局以消费者为中心的电商发展体系，与头部达人"与辉同行" ...

格隆汇8月28日｜招商证券研报指出，五粮液25Q2单季度实现收入/归母净利润158.3亿元/46.3亿元，同 比+0.1%/-7.6%。单Q2收入仍保持不下滑，利润增速转负，符合此前预期。H1销售以价换量，前五大经 销商占比大幅提升至60%。毛利承压费用投入加大，盈利能力有所下降。公司开启调整，关注双节压力 测试。25Q2在外部压力下公司收入保持稳定，核心大经销商分担部分压力。产品端1618、39度开瓶量 与宴席市场稳定增长，下半年成立专班后有望贡献增量。展望三季度，需求缺口仍在的情况下，公司预 计重视价格管控，报表调整幅度预计大于二季度，关注双节压力测试。考虑到H1业绩情况及下半年展 望，该行下调25-27年EPS预测7.56、7.63、7.63元，继续维持"强烈推荐"评级。 ...

公司发布25 年半年报， 25Q2 单季度实现收入/归母净利润158.3 亿元/46.3 亿元，同比+0.1%/-7.6%。单 Q2 收入仍保持不下滑，利润增速转负，符合此前预期。H1 销售以价换量，前五大经销商占比大幅提升 至60%。毛利承压费用投入加大，盈利能力有所下降。公司开启调整，关注双节压力测试。 Q2 利润增速转负符合预期，现金流良性。公司25H1 实现收入/归母净利润527.7 亿元/194.9 亿元，同比 +4.2%/+2.3%，25Q2 单季度实现收入/归母净利润158.3 亿元/46.3 亿元，同比+0.1%/-7.6%。单Q2 收入仍 保持不下滑，利润下滑，符合此前预期。25Q2 销售收现312.3 亿元（yoy+12.0%），经营净现金流152.9 亿元（yoy+18.4%），期末合同负债余额为100.8 亿元（yoy+23.5%，环比24 年末降低16.1 亿元）。 毛利承压费用投入加大，盈利能力有所下降。25Q2 公司毛利率水平74.7%（yoy-0.3pct），主要系五粮 液及系列酒产品价格下行所致，25Q2 公司主营税金率/ 销售费率/ 管理费率分别为15.5%/18.9%/4 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the white liquor industry as "Positive" (First Time) [1] Core Viewpoints - The current moment is seen as a potential starting point for absolute returns in the white liquor sector, considering the cyclical learning effects [4] - The white liquor industry has returned to cyclical characteristics, with fund holdings dropping to levels seen in 2017, and the food and beverage sector's overweight ratio has decreased significantly from a peak of 11% in 2019 to 3.2% [4][13] - The valuation of the white liquor sector has declined by 72% over the past four years, indicating a slow and steady adjustment process, unlike previous cycles [4][18] - Historical analysis suggests that the bottoming out of the white liquor index occurred after the 2014 Spring Festival, which is anticipated to happen again during the current cycle [5][22] Summary by Sections 1. Decline in White Liquor Holdings and Return to Cyclical Stock Characteristics - Fund holdings in the white liquor sector have decreased to 2017 levels, indicating a shift back to cyclical stock characteristics [10][13] - The overweight ratio of the food and beverage sector has significantly decreased, reflecting a gradual exit of funds focused on long-term value [4][13] 2. Review of Previous Cycle's Bottoming Characteristics - The previous cycle's bottoming process involved several stages, including a decline in dealer profitability, reduced receivables, and a subsequent recovery in real demand [4][18] - The current cycle is expected to show a similar pattern, with the learning effect potentially leading to an earlier inflection point for absolute returns [4][18] 3. Upcoming Investment Timing - The report suggests monitoring for signs of risk clearance in financial statements and early inventory reduction among dealers as indicators for potential investment opportunities [4][6] - Specific companies to watch include Luzhou Laojiao for its high dividend yield and Yingjia Gongjiu for its low valuation and inventory clearance [4][6]

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·白酒Ⅱ 五粮液（000858） 2025 年中报点评：迎难而进，务实求变 2025 年 08 月 28 日 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 83,272 | 89,175 | 90,290 | 91,981 | 98,624 | | 同比（%） | 12.58 | 7.09 | 1.25 | 1.87 | 7.22 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 30,211 | 31,853 | 31,570 | 31,964 | 34,862 | | 同比（%） | 13.19 | 5.44 | (0.89) | 1.25 | 9.07 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 7.78 | 8.21 | 8.13 | 8.23 | 8.98 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 16.27 | 15.43 | 15.57 | 15.38 | 14.10 | [Table_Tag] ...