Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Views - The aluminum price is experiencing high-level fluctuations due to inventory depletion and macroeconomic factors, including expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [6][10] - The demand for aluminum is gradually entering a low season, with the aluminum water conversion rate facing downward pressure [10] - Long-term supply growth in the aluminum industry is limited, while demand still has growth points, indicating sustained high prosperity in the industry [10] Summary by Sections 1. Price - As of November 28, the LME three-month aluminum closing price is $2865.0 per ton, up $57.0 from the previous week, a 2.0% increase week-on-week, and up $263.0 year-on-year, a 10.1% increase [22] - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price is 21610.0 yuan per ton, up 270.0 yuan from the previous week, a 1.3% increase week-on-week, and up 1035.0 yuan year-on-year, a 5.0% increase [22] - The average price of A00 aluminum in Changjiang is 21430.0 yuan per ton, up 70.0 yuan from the previous week, a 0.3% increase week-on-week, and up 910.0 yuan year-on-year, a 4.4% increase [22] 2. Production - In November 2025, the aluminum production is 363.7 million tons, a decrease of 10.6 million tons month-on-month, and a decrease of 6.6 million tons year-on-year [51] - The alumina production in November 2025 is 743.9 million tons, a decrease of 34.6 million tons month-on-month, but an increase of 15.2 million tons year-on-year [51] 3. Inventory - As of November 27, the domestic mainstream consumption area aluminum ingot inventory is 596,000 tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons week-on-week, indicating a continued trend of inventory reduction [7] - The aluminum rod inventory is 131,000 tons, down 6500 tons week-on-week, reflecting a steady decline in inventory [7] 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - China Hongqiao (1378.HK) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 2.25 yuan for 2024, increasing to 2.54 yuan in 2025E and 2.77 yuan in 2026E [5] - Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 0.96 yuan for 2024, increasing to 1.00 yuan in 2025E and 1.27 yuan in 2026E [5] - Shenhuo Co. (000933.SZ) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 1.91 yuan for 2024, increasing to 2.13 yuan in 2025E and 2.56 yuan in 2026E [5]

Core Points - The Shenzhen State-Owned Enterprises Shareholder Return Index (470064) closed at 2212.99 points, up 0.51% with a trading volume of 16.404 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 0.67% [1] - Among the index constituents, 36 stocks rose while 12 fell, with China Steel International leading the gainers at 2.67% and China Merchants Shekou leading the decliners at 2.63% [1] Index Constituents Summary - The top ten constituents of the Shenzhen State-Owned Enterprises Shareholder Return Index include: - BOE Technology Group (9.31% weight, latest price 3.86, market cap 144.418 billion yuan) in the electronics sector - Hikvision (7.97% weight, latest price 30.02, market cap 275.129 billion yuan) in the computer sector - Wuliangye Yibin (7.71% weight, latest price 117.85, market cap 457.448 billion yuan) in the food and beverage sector - Luzhou Laojiao (6.59% weight, latest price 135.88, market cap 200.007 billion yuan) in the food and beverage sector - XCMG Machinery (5.75% weight, latest price 10.32, market cap 121.291 billion yuan) in the machinery sector - Changan Automobile (3.88% weight, latest price 11.94, market cap 118.374 billion yuan) in the automotive sector - Shenwan Hongyuan (3.84% weight, latest price 5.15, market cap 128.956 billion yuan) in the non-banking financial sector - Yunnan Aluminum (3.81% weight, latest price 24.70, market cap 85.659 billion yuan) in the non-ferrous metals sector - Yanghe Brewery (3.37% weight, latest price 66.20, market cap 99.727 billion yuan) in the food and beverage sector - Tongling Nonferrous Metals (3.18% weight, latest price 5.10, market cap 68.388 billion yuan) in the non-ferrous metals sector [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The net inflow of main funds into the index constituents totaled 56.5973 million yuan, while speculative funds saw a net outflow of 69.8164 million yuan, and retail investors had a net inflow of 13.2191 million yuan [3] - Notable capital flows include: - Changan Automobile experienced a main fund net outflow of 54.1716 million yuan - China Steel International had a main fund net inflow of 31.1027 million yuan - Hikvision saw a main fund net inflow of 27.5848 million yuan [3]

Core Viewpoint - Shenhua Co., Ltd. has shown a significant stock price increase of 49.97% year-to-date, with a recent trading performance indicating mixed trends in the short term [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Shenhua Co., Ltd. achieved a revenue of 31.005 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.50%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 1.38% to 3.49 billion yuan [2]. - Cumulatively, since its A-share listing, the company has distributed a total of 9.422 billion yuan in dividends, with 5.843 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Shareholder Information - As of November 20, 2025, the number of shareholders for Shenhua Co., Ltd. reached 71,700, an increase of 5.29% from the previous period. The average number of circulating shares per shareholder decreased by 5.02% to 31,346 shares [2]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited is the fourth largest, holding 77.6616 million shares, which is an increase of 38.6067 million shares from the previous period [3]. Market Activity - On November 28, 2025, Shenhua Co., Ltd.'s stock price rose by 2.07% to 24.60 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 303 million yuan and a turnover rate of 0.55%. The total market capitalization reached 55.326 billion yuan [1]. - The net outflow of main funds was 2.2425 million yuan, with large orders showing a buy of 61.0525 million yuan and a sell of 52.6108 million yuan [1].

Group 1: Copper - The supply-demand imbalance for copper is becoming evident, with the price center expected to rise due to tight copper concentrate supply and surging green demand [1] - Global copper mine grades are declining, and long-term insufficient capital expenditure has limited new mining projects, contributing to a tight copper concentrate market [1] - Demand for copper is supported by investments in electricity, new energy vehicles, and data center construction, driven by global monetary easing and green transition trends [1] - Recommended companies to focus on include Zijin Mining (601899.SH) and Luoyang Molybdenum (603993.SH), which have rich resource reserves and clear capacity planning [1] Group 2: Aluminum - The supply of electrolytic aluminum is tight, with domestic capacity capped at 45 million tons and limited new capacity, while overseas production progress is slow [2] - The demand for electrolytic aluminum shows structural resilience, and prices are expected to rise due to rigid supply, low inventory, and cost support [2] - The average price of electrolytic aluminum is projected to be around 22,000 yuan/ton by 2026, with increasing profitability leading companies to raise dividend ratios [2] - Key companies to watch include Yunnan Aluminum (000807.SZ), Mingtai Aluminum (601677.SH), and Shenhuo Group (000933.SZ) [2] Group 3: Precious Metals - The value of gold as an investment is highlighted amid the Fed's policy shift and ongoing global macro uncertainties [3] - Silver, with both industrial and monetary properties, shows stronger price elasticity during liquidity easing cycles [3] - The gold-silver ratio is expected to decline from around 100 in May 2025 to about 80 by November 2025, indicating potential for downward correction [3] - Recommended investment opportunities include Zijin Mining (601899.SH), Shandong Gold (600547.SH), Zhongjin Gold (600489.SH), and Shengda Resources (000603.SZ) [3] Group 4: Superhard Materials - Traditional demand for superhard products is under pressure, leading the industry into a downturn [4] - However, breakthroughs in functional diamond technology are opening new growth opportunities, particularly in high-end chip cooling applications [4] - Companies to focus on include Guoji Precision (002046.SZ), which has made progress in functional diamonds, and Sifangda (300179.SZ), which has large-scale CVD diamond production lines [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [1] Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a decline of 6.75% during the week of November 17-21, ranking low among all primary industries. The industrial metals segment saw significant price drops due to a combination of declining macroeconomic expectations and seasonal demand weakness [1][14] - The report emphasizes that while industrial metals are currently under pressure, the overall macroeconomic environment remains supportive for a bullish outlook in the long term, contingent on demand recovery [1][27] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.90%, with the non-ferrous metals sector underperforming, down 6.75% [14] - Among sub-sectors, industrial metals dropped 8.28%, while precious metals fell 3.32% [14] Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Prices fell with LME copper at $10,778/ton (-0.63%) and SHFE copper at ¥85,660/ton (-1.43%). Supply concerns arose from a mining accident in Congo, while demand showed no significant improvement [2][29] - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum closed at $2,808/ton (-1.77%) and SHFE aluminum at ¥21,340/ton (-2.29%). The market is affected by geopolitical tensions and weak domestic demand [3][36] - **Zinc**: LME zinc prices decreased to $2,992/ton (-0.75%), with LME inventories rising significantly [37] - **Tin**: Prices remained stable with LME tin at $36,970/ton (+0.30%), amid tightening supply signals [40] Precious Metals - **Gold**: COMEX gold closed at $4,062.80/oz (-0.53%) and SHFE gold at ¥926.94/g (-2.75%). The ADP employment data did not indicate a strong recovery in the labor market, contributing to price weakness [4][43] - The report suggests that despite short-term pressures, precious metals remain within a macro bullish framework, with attention needed on potential liquidity risks from rising Japanese bond yields [4][44]

2025 年 8 月，根据河南省产权交易中心出具的挂牌结果通知书， 公司与商丘新发签署了《产权交易合同》，以 29,829.09 万元的摘牌价 格受让神火新材 14.6869%股权。 2025 年 11 月 24 日，公司办理完毕本次股权转让相关的工商变更 登记备案手续，并取得了由商丘市市场监督管理局城乡一体化示范区 分局换发的《营业执照》，有关信息如下： 证券代码：000933 证券简称：神火股份 公告编号：2025-073 河南神火煤电股份有限公司 关于通过公开摘牌方式受让商丘新发投资有限公司所持 神火新材料科技有限公司 14.6869%股权的进展公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确和完整，没有虚假记载、误 导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、交易概述 河南神火煤电股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2025 年 7 月 22 日召开董事会第九届十九次会议，审议通过了《关于通过公开摘牌 方式受让商丘新发投资有限公司所持神火新材料科技有限公司 14.6869%股权的议案》，同意公司作为意向受让方以自有资金通过公 开摘牌方式受让商丘新发投资有限公司（以下简称"商丘新发"）所 持神火新材料科技有限公司 ...

Company Overview - Shenhuo Co., Ltd. is located in Yongcheng, Henan Province, and was established on August 31, 1998, with its listing date on August 31, 1999. The company primarily engages in the production, processing, and sales of aluminum products and coal, as well as power supply and sales [1] - The revenue composition of Shenhuo Co., Ltd. includes: electrolytic aluminum (69.40%), coal (14.11%), aluminum foil (6.41%), aluminum foil raw materials (4.44%), trading (3.82%), other businesses (1.73%), transportation (0.05%), anode carbon blocks (0.03%), and coking (0.03%) [1] Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Shenhuo Co., Ltd. achieved an operating income of 31.005 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.50%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.49 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 1.38% [2] - Since its A-share listing, Shenhuo Co., Ltd. has cumulatively distributed cash dividends amounting to 9.422 billion yuan, with 5.843 billion yuan distributed in the past three years [3] Stock Performance - As of November 24, Shenhuo Co., Ltd.'s stock price was 23.88 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 53.706 billion yuan. The stock has increased by 45.58% year-to-date but has decreased by 6.43% over the past five trading days and by 2.89% over the past 20 days [1] - The stock's trading volume on November 24 was 388 million yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.71% [1] Shareholder Information - As of November 10, the number of shareholders of Shenhuo Co., Ltd. was 68,100, an increase of 4.13% from the previous period. The average number of circulating shares per person was 33,003, a decrease of 3.96% [2] - As of September 30, 2025, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited was the fourth-largest circulating shareholder, holding 77.6616 million shares, an increase of 38.6067 million shares from the previous period [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Views - The aluminum price has recently retreated from high levels due to fluctuating expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with a notable drop in aluminum prices observed [6][9] - The demand for aluminum is entering a traditional off-season, leading to concerns about inventory levels and price stability [9] - Long-term prospects for the aluminum industry remain positive due to limited supply growth and potential demand increases, justifying the "Recommended" rating [9] Summary by Sections Price - As of November 21, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was $2808.0 per ton, down $500.0 from the previous week, a 2.3% decrease [13] - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price was 21340.0 yuan per ton, reflecting a 2.4% decrease compared to the previous week [19] Production - In October 2025, the aluminum production was 3.742 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.5% and a year-on-year increase of 4.7% [50] - The alumina production for the same month was 7.785 million tons, also showing a month-on-month increase of 2.4% and a year-on-year increase of 12.6% [50] Inventory - As of November 20, the domestic mainstream consumption area of aluminum ingot inventory recorded 621,000 tons, with a slight decrease of 2,500 tons from the previous week [7] - The overall inventory situation remains a concern as the market enters the off-season, with potential risks of inventory accumulation [9] Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - Key companies in the industry include China Hongqiao, Tianshan Aluminum, Shenhuo Co., China Aluminum, and Yun Aluminum, all rated as "Buy" [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the growth of China's alumina production, indicating a significant increase in output and projecting future trends in the industry [1]. Industry Overview - As of September 2025, China's alumina production reached 8 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.7% [1]. - Cumulatively, from January to September 2025, the total alumina production in China was 68.56 million tons, with an overall increase of 8.4% compared to the previous year [1]. Companies Involved - Listed companies in the alumina sector include China Aluminum (601600), Tianshan Aluminum (002532), Nanshan Aluminum (600219), Yun Aluminum (000807), Shenhuo Co. (000933), Zhongfu Industrial (600595), Jiaozuo Wanfang (000612), Hongchuang Holdings (002379), Minfa Aluminum (002578), and Ningbo Fubang (600768) [1]. Research and Analysis - The report titled "Analysis of Development Models and Future Prospects of China's Alumina Industry from 2026 to 2032" was published by Zhiyan Consulting, a leading industry consulting firm in China [1]. - Zhiyan Consulting has been dedicated to industry research for over a decade, providing comprehensive industry research reports, business plans, feasibility studies, and customized services [1].

Core Viewpoint - Shenhuo Co., Ltd. has experienced a stock price decline of 2.05% on November 21, with a current price of 24.40 CNY per share, despite a year-to-date increase of 48.75% [1] Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Shenhuo Co., Ltd. achieved a revenue of 31.005 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.50%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 1.38% to 3.49 billion CNY [2] - Cumulative cash dividends since the A-share listing amount to 9.422 billion CNY, with 5.843 billion CNY distributed over the past three years [3] Shareholder Information - As of November 10, 2025, the number of shareholders for Shenhuo Co., Ltd. reached 68,100, an increase of 4.13% from the previous period. The average number of circulating shares per person decreased by 3.96% to 33,003 shares [2] - The largest circulating shareholder, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holds 77.6616 million shares, an increase of 3.866 million shares compared to the previous period [3] Market Activity - On November 21, the stock saw a trading volume of 75.9528 million CNY, with a turnover rate of 0.14%. The total market capitalization stands at 54.876 billion CNY [1] - The net outflow of main funds was 11.0305 million CNY, with significant selling pressure observed [1]