从销售结构看，头部房企优势依然明显。保利发展控股集团股份有限公司（以下简称"保利发展"）、绿 城中国控股有限公司、招商局蛇口工业区控股股份有限公司（以下简称"招商蛇口"）、杭州滨江房产集 团股份有限公司（以下简称"滨江集团"）等企业的销售额均超过千亿元。 中指研究院日前发布的数据显示，2025年销售额超千亿元的房企共10家，头部企业销售规模保持韧性， 核心城市项目仍是主要支撑。 上海易居房地产研究院副院长严跃进向《证券日报》记者表示，近年来，多地在供地端持续优化出让机 制，土地供应呈现出"控量提质"的特征。一方面，地方政府不断提升供地精准度，部分城市对配建公共 服务设施的项目给予容积率奖励，另有城市通过支持土地出让金分期缴纳，缓解房企资金压力。另一方 面，围绕"好房子"建设导向，各地加大低容积率、可开发性较强地块的投放力度，优质地块供应明显增 加，房企竞拍积极性提升，高溢价成交案例增多。 展望未来，严跃进表示，2026年住宅市场有望迎来一批在区位、品质和功能上更具竞争力的"好房子"项 目，核心城市新房产品结构将进一步优化，具备持续开发能力与稳健经营能力的头部房企，有望保持竞 争优势。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development and services sectors [7]. Core Insights - The central government emphasizes the importance of managing expectations in the real estate market, indicating a proactive approach to stabilize the market [2][3]. - The report highlights that while the traditional real estate development model has reached its limits, the sector remains a crucial foundation for the national economy, with significant demand still to be released [4]. - The report suggests that if policies continue to address expectations effectively, it could accelerate market stabilization [5]. Summary by Sections Investment Opportunities - The report recommends investing in "three good" real estate companies, which are characterized by good credit, good cities, and good products, including companies like China Overseas Development and Longfor Group [5]. - It also highlights companies with strong operational capabilities that can manage cash flow during market adjustments, such as New Town Holdings and Longfor Group [5]. - Companies benefiting from the recovery of the Hong Kong market, like Sun Hung Kai Properties, are also recommended [5]. Policy Management - The report stresses the need for maintaining policy strength, effective supply management, and enhancing information and public opinion guidance to stabilize market expectations [3]. - It notes that policies should align with market expectations and be implemented decisively to avoid a situation where the market and policies are in conflict [3]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the real estate market is still adjusting, with significant declines in sales and prices, and mentions the potential for bankruptcies among some companies [2]. - It emphasizes that the real estate sector is closely linked to financial security and household wealth, underscoring its importance in the broader economic context [2]. Company Performance - The report provides detailed performance forecasts for several key companies, adjusting earnings per share (EPS) estimates for various firms based on market conditions and operational performance [12][13][14]. - For instance, Longfor Group's EPS estimates for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 0.52, 0.68, and 1.04 yuan, reflecting a downward revision due to expected profitability challenges in its development business [12]. - China Overseas Development's EPS estimates have been adjusted to 1.39, 1.48, and 1.60 yuan for the same period, indicating a more optimistic outlook based on its strong market position and project pipeline [12].

2026年翩然而至。回顾2025年，房企销售哪家强？ 岁末年初，中指研究院、克而瑞深度咨询·普睿数智研究中心、亿翰智库三大机构分别发布销售额排行榜榜单， 2025年，保利发展蝉联销冠，与中海地产、华润置地、招商蛇口、绿城中国位居前五位，而万科跌出前五。 虽然2025年房企整体业绩延续筑底态势，但可喜的是，部分企业业绩呈现出回暖。据克而瑞深度咨询·普睿数智研 究中心统计，2025年累计业绩同比增长的房企占比为24%，其中同比增幅大于30%的企业数量占到12家。 保利发展蝉联销冠，金茂晋位、万科跌出前五 根据中指研究院和亿翰智库发布的百强房企销售榜单（全口径销售额）显示，保利发展、绿城中国的销售额为 2530亿元和2519亿元，分别位居冠军和亚军。中海地产销售额为2512亿元，华润置地销售额为2336亿元，分别位 居第三位和第四位，招商蛇口以1960亿元的销售额位居第五名。 | 排名 | ग्रह के बाद में बाद में बाद में बाद में बाद में बाद में बाद में बाद में बाद में बाद में कि में बाद में कि को में ब ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][6] Core Views - The real estate market in 2025 is expected to remain sluggish, with new home transactions down by 15.8% year-on-year, while second-hand home transactions show a slight increase of 3.9% [11][22] - The report emphasizes that the policy environment is expected to become more stringent, similar to the conditions seen in 2008 and 2014, indicating that the current policy adjustments are still in progress [4] - The report suggests that the real estate sector serves as an early economic indicator, making it a valuable asset class for investment [4] - The competitive landscape in the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select mixed-ownership and private companies expected to perform better in land acquisition and sales [4] - The report highlights a focus on first-tier and select second-tier cities for investment, as these areas are likely to see better performance during market rebounds [4] Summary by Sections New Home Transactions - In 2025, the cumulative new home transaction volume in 30 sample cities reached 98.217 million square meters, a decrease of 15.8% year-on-year [11] - First-tier cities accounted for 26.191 million square meters, down 12.0%, while second-tier cities saw a decline of 15.6% to 49.040 million square meters [11] - December 2025 saw a significant drop in new home transactions, with a total of 9.679 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 40.0% [2][11] Second-Hand Home Transactions - The total area of second-hand home transactions in 2025 was 103.989 million square meters, marking a year-on-year increase of 3.9% [22] - First-tier cities recorded a total of 43.287 million square meters in second-hand home transactions, up 4.4% year-on-year [22] Market Performance - The report notes that the real estate index decreased by 0.7% this week, lagging behind the CSI 300 index by 0.10 percentage points, ranking 19th among 31 sectors [34] - The report identifies a total of 28 stocks that increased in value this week, while 82 stocks experienced declines [34] Credit Bond Issuance - In the week of December 29 to January 4, only one credit bond was issued by real estate companies, totaling 250 million yuan, a decrease of 44.82 million yuan from the previous week [45]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that in 2025, real estate companies maintain a positive attitude towards land acquisition, with the top 100 companies acquiring a total of 964 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.9% [1] - The top three companies in terms of new value added are China Overseas Land & Investment, China Merchants Shekou, and Poly Developments, with new values of 203.1 billion yuan, 193.6 billion yuan, and 143.6 billion yuan respectively [2] - The land acquisition trend shows a "high at the beginning and low at the end" pattern, with a more than 30% year-on-year increase in the first three quarters, followed by a decrease in the fourth quarter due to reduced land auction activities [1] Group 2 - In 2025, the land transfer fees in Hangzhou, Shanghai, and Beijing exceeded 140 billion yuan, leading the nation, as these cities are favored by real estate companies due to strong population inflow and resilient demand [3] - The competition for high-quality land parcels is intensifying, with some plots achieving record high total land prices or floor prices [3] - Joint acquisitions and mergers are becoming more common in first and second-tier cities, with 14 out of 40 residential land transactions in Beijing being won by joint ventures [3]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of stabilizing expectations in the real estate market, highlighting the need for proactive measures to shorten adjustment periods and smooth market fluctuations [5][14][17] - The article from "Qiushi" magazine outlines the critical role of real estate in the national economy and stresses the necessity of maintaining policy strength to align with market expectations [5][14][16] Section Summaries 1. Policy Environment During New Year - The article in "Qiushi" magazine discusses the current phase of the real estate market, indicating a shift from housing shortages to a balance in supply, with a focus on quality over quantity in housing demand [13][15] - It highlights the financial asset nature of real estate, emphasizing its significance in stabilizing the economy and the need for effective expectation management [14][15] 2. Transaction Performance: New and Second-Hand Housing - New housing transactions during the New Year period saw a significant decline, with a daily average of 15.66 million square meters sold across 32 cities, down 44.8% year-on-year [19][21] - In contrast, second-hand housing transactions showed relative stability, with an average of 2,676 units sold daily across 80 cities, a slight decrease of 1.1% year-on-year [26][28] 3. Market Trends and Insights - The real estate sector's performance was weak, with the SW real estate index down 0.7%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.1 percentage points [5][19] - The report notes that the PB valuation for major developers is at 0.45x, indicating low market expectations for price recovery [5][19] 4. Company Valuation and Financial Analysis - The report provides a detailed valuation analysis of key companies in the real estate sector, indicating a "Buy" rating for several firms based on their projected earnings and valuation metrics [6][19] - Companies like Vanke A and China Overseas Development are highlighted for their potential upside based on current market conditions and valuations [6][19] 5. Future Outlook - The report suggests that despite current challenges, there remains significant potential for growth in housing services, second-hand transactions, and real estate asset management, with estimates indicating a need for 10 to 14.9 million new homes annually [16][18] - It emphasizes the importance of maintaining policy strength and aligning it with market expectations to foster recovery in the real estate sector [16][18]

Core Insights - Despite industry challenges, four real estate companies are expected to exceed 200 billion yuan in sales by 2025, with the top 10 maintaining a threshold of 100 billion yuan [1][2] - The companies achieving over 200 billion yuan in sales include Poly Developments (253 billion yuan), Greentown China (251.9 billion yuan), China Overseas Property (251.2 billion yuan), and China Resources Land (233.6 billion yuan) [1][2] Group 1: Sales Performance - In December 2025, nearly 70% of 105 typical real estate companies reported a month-on-month increase in total sales, with almost 50% experiencing a month-on-month growth rate exceeding 20% [3] - Notable performers include Yuexiu Property, China State Construction, and Renheng Real Estate, with some companies achieving month-on-month sales growth exceeding 100% [3] - China Resources Land and China State Construction reported year-on-year sales growth rates exceeding 15% [3] Group 2: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The real estate sector is expected to continue its adjustment phase in 2026, with debt restructuring accelerating and the completion of housing delivery tasks [1][9] - The market is anticipated to seek a new supply-demand balance, with structural recovery possible while overall prices are expected to remain stable [9] - The importance of community amenities and services is expected to increase, with a focus on green, smart, healthy, and safe products gaining premium pricing [9] Group 3: Company Resilience and Strategy - 53 companies have maintained their position in the top 100 for five consecutive years, with firms like Binjiang Group and Longfor Group demonstrating stable operations while maintaining investment levels [8] - Some struggling private companies, such as Country Garden and Sunac, remain in the top rankings due to prior land reserves that support sales and debt restructuring efforts [8] - Regional private companies are focusing on local high-capacity cities through precise strategies and partnerships to mitigate financial pressures [8]

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of real estate companies in 2025 continues to show a bottoming trend, with some companies experiencing significant recovery in their performance. The proportion of companies with year-on-year performance growth is 24%, with 12 companies achieving growth rates exceeding 30% [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The real estate market in 2025 maintains a bottoming trend, with overall sales remaining at low levels. There are 10 companies with sales exceeding 100 billion yuan, 13 companies with sales between 30-100 billion yuan, 42 companies with sales between 10-30 billion yuan, and 35 companies with sales below 10 billion yuan [2]. - Among the 10 companies with sales over 100 billion yuan, only one company, China Jinmao, reported performance growth. In the 13 companies with sales between 30-100 billion yuan, three companies reported growth: Greenland Holdings, China State Construction East, and Bangtai Group [8]. Group 2: Company Performance - A total of 224 companies reported year-on-year performance growth, with 24 companies showing growth. Notably, Bangtai Group's performance surpassed 30 billion yuan for the first time, with a significant year-on-year increase of 79.7% [4][5]. - The companies with the highest sales and their respective year-on-year growth rates include: - Kerry Properties: 227.87 billion yuan, 1646.5% - Jiangshan Wanli Real Estate: 174.50 billion yuan, 731.3% - Fuzhou Jianfa: 88.90 billion yuan, 92.9% - Shanghai Construction: 92.75 billion yuan, 80.6% - Bangtai Group: 303.54 billion yuan, 79.7% [5]. Group 3: State-Owned vs. Private Enterprises - Central state-owned enterprises performed relatively well, with 42.9% of them reporting performance growth. In contrast, only 15.2% of private enterprises and 12.5% of mixed-ownership enterprises reported growth [9][13]. - The proportion of performance growth among various types of real estate companies shows a clear differentiation, with state-owned enterprises leading in growth rates compared to private and mixed-ownership enterprises [13].

Core Insights - The real estate market continues to show signs of bottoming out, with 10 companies achieving over 100 billion yuan in sales for the year [3] - 24 companies reported year-on-year growth in performance, with some experiencing significant recovery [3] - Central and state-owned enterprises performed well overall, with 42% of them reporting performance growth [3] - High-quality properties and urban renewal have become new focal points, prompting companies to enhance their internal capabilities [3] Company Performance - The top companies by operational amount include: - Greentown China: 251.9 billion yuan - China Overseas Land & Investment: 239.2 billion yuan - Poly Developments: 232.8 billion yuan - China Resources Land: 210.1 billion yuan - China Merchants Shekou: 185.8 billion yuan [5][6] - The top companies by operational area include: - Greentown China: 1,208 million square meters - Poly Developments: 1,126.2 million square meters - China Overseas Land & Investment: 1,044.2 million square meters - Vanke: 950.7 million square meters - China Merchants Shekou: 688 million square meters [5][6] Market Trends - The overall market is characterized by a continued bottoming trend, with a focus on quality properties and urban renewal as key areas for growth [3] - Companies are encouraged to strengthen their internal capabilities to adapt to changing market conditions [3]

北京商报讯(记者李晗)2026年1月1日，中指研究院发布数据显示，2025年TOP100企业中，中海地产以 2031亿元土地储备新增货值位列第一，招商蛇口（001979）新增货值规模为1936亿元，位列第二，两家 企业均通过获取上海城市更新项目，货值大幅提升。保利发展（600048）新增货值规模为1436亿元，位 列第三。TOP10企业2025年新增货值总额12203亿元，占TOP100企业的43.3%，新增货值门槛跃升至105 亿元。 ...