Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry in China is experiencing a recovery in both volume and pricing due to anti-involution measures, with significant revenue growth observed among major players in September. Group 1: Performance Metrics - SF Express achieved a business volume of 1.504 billion parcels, a growth rate of 31.81%, with revenue reaching 20.854 billion yuan, up 14.21%, but a decrease in average revenue per parcel by 13.31% to 13.87 yuan [1] - YTO Express reported a business volume of 2.627 billion parcels, a growth of 13.64%, with revenue of 5.799 billion yuan, up 14.89%, and an average revenue per parcel of 2.21 yuan, an increase of 1.09% [1] - Yunda Express had a business volume of 2.110 billion parcels, growing by 3.63%, with revenue of 4.252 billion yuan, up 4.14%, and an average revenue per parcel of 2.02 yuan, a slight increase of 0.50% [1] - Shentong Express reported a business volume of 2.187 billion parcels, a growth of 9.46%, with revenue of 4.633 billion yuan, up 14.89%, and an average revenue per parcel of 2.12 yuan, an increase of 4.95% [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The industry is seeing a slowdown in growth rates due to price increases, with SF Express leading the market for seven consecutive months, achieving an average daily volume of over 50 million parcels in September [2] - The State Post Bureau anticipates a year-on-year growth of approximately 12% in express delivery volume and 7% in revenue for September, with total volume expected to reach around 1.45 trillion parcels and revenue exceeding 1 trillion yuan for the first three quarters [2] - The anti-involution price increase actions have been expanding nationwide since July, showing positive effects on the performance of major express companies as the peak season approaches [2] Group 3: Challenges for Frontline Operations - While headquarters are benefiting from anti-involution measures, frontline outlets are facing varied situations, with some reporting increased losses due to rising shipping costs without a corresponding decrease in volume assessments [4] - Many outlets are struggling with the implementation of price increases, with some areas not fully passing on the increased costs to customers, leading to concerns about profitability during the peak season [5] - Despite the overall price increases, frontline outlets are still waiting for adjustments in delivery fees, with some regions only seeing minor increases, which do not alleviate the financial pressures faced by these outlets [6]

Investment Rating - The report rates the express delivery industry as "Overweight" [8] Core Insights - The express delivery industry continues to show growth, with September business volume increasing by approximately 12% year-on-year, and revenue expected to grow by around 7% [3] - The average revenue per package in September was 7.58 yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3% [3] - The report highlights a significant upward trend in pricing due to the ongoing "anti-involution" efforts within the industry, leading to improved profitability for express companies [3] Summary by Sections Business Volume and Revenue - YTO Express reported a business volume of 2.627 billion packages in September, a year-on-year increase of 13.64%, with an average revenue per package of 2.21 yuan, up 1.4% [1] - Shentong Express completed 2.187 billion packages, a 9.46% increase year-on-year, with an average revenue per package of 2.12 yuan, up 4.95% [1] - Yunda reported a business volume of 2.110 billion packages, a 3.63% increase year-on-year, with an average revenue per package of 2.02 yuan, up 0.50% [1] Pricing Trends - The report notes that the average package price has increased significantly, with Yunda seeing a month-on-month increase of 0.10 yuan, YTO and Shentong both increasing by 0.06 yuan [3] - The report anticipates that the third quarter will see express companies begin to realize profits from price increases, with a focus on the profit elasticity in the fourth quarter [3] Market Outlook - The report suggests three potential scenarios for the future of the express delivery industry: 1. Continued price recovery leading to significant dividends while ensuring the rights of delivery personnel 2. Ongoing competitive dynamics in various regions, resulting in increased industry differentiation 3. Potential for higher-level consolidation and supply-side optimization [3] - Companies recommended for investment include Shentong Express, YTO Express, and Jitu Express, with a focus on Zhongtong Express and Yunda [3]

Market Overview - The logistics sector increased by 1.01% on October 20, with Yuan Da Holdings leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3863.89, up 0.63%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12813.21, up 0.98% [1] Top Gainers in Logistics Sector - Yuan Da Holdings (000626) closed at 10.74, up 10.04%, with a trading volume of 939,300 shares and a transaction value of 956 million [1] - Yongtai Transportation (001228) closed at 26.18, up 10.00%, with a trading volume of 75,600 shares and a transaction value of 193 million [1] - Jiacheng International (603535) closed at 11.20, up 5.36%, with a trading volume of 121,100 shares and a transaction value of 134 million [1] Market Capital Flow - The logistics sector experienced a net outflow of 60.56 million from institutional investors and a net outflow of 154 million from speculative funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 215 million [2] - The top stocks with significant capital inflow included Yuan Da Holdings with a net inflow of 65.54 million from institutional investors [3] Notable Decliners - Xiamen Xiangyu (600057) closed at 7.54, down 2.84%, with a trading volume of 238,500 shares and a transaction value of 181 million [2] - ST Yuanshang (603813) closed at 27.00, down 2.60%, with a trading volume of 20,200 shares and a transaction value of 54.69 million [2]

交通运输 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 10 月 20 日 强于大市 交通运输行业周报 中美互征港口费推升航运市场避险情绪， 9 月多 家快递公司"量价齐升" 航运方面，中美互征港口费推升航运市场避险情绪，集运远洋航线运价上 涨。航空方面沃兰特 VE25-100 eVTOL 成功完成首轮试飞，三大航 9 月运 营数据释放积极信号。物流与交通新业态方面，京东物流与宁德时代达成战 略合作，9 月多家快递公司"量价齐升"。 核心观点 ①中美互征港口费推升航运市场避险情绪，集运远洋航线运价上涨。10 月 16 日，上海航运交易所发布的 CTFI 指数报 1791.28 点，较 10 月 9 日上 涨 27.3%。本周 VLCC 市场中东航线 11 月初货盘陆续进场，国际政治 与贸易消息对市场情绪影响明显，美国宣布对中国原油码头实施制裁， 中国宣布反制措施对美资船舶征收对等港口费，短期内加剧中美航运关 系紧张的担忧，推升了市场的避险情绪。随着中国交通运输部发布的关 于对美船舶征收特别港务费的实施细则落地，中国建造船舶可豁免缴纳 该费用的条款，成交运价也在大幅上涨后高位企稳。欧线方面，本周运 输需求总体稳 ...

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery sector is showing signs of recovery with increased business volume and revenue per package, particularly in September, indicating a positive trend as the peak season approaches [1] Group 1: Company Performance - ZTO Express (02057) saw its stock price rise by over 4% during trading, closing at 148.2 HKD with a transaction volume of 185 million HKD [1] - YTO Express (600233) reported a business volume of 2.627 billion packages in September, a year-on-year increase of 13.64%, with revenue per package at 2.21 RMB, up 1.09% [1] - Shentong Express (002468) completed 2.187 billion packages in September, reflecting a 9.46% year-on-year growth, with revenue per package at 2.12 RMB, an increase of 4.95% [1] - Yunda Express (002120) achieved a business volume of 2.110 billion packages in September, a 3.63% year-on-year increase, with revenue per package at 2.02 RMB, up 0.50% [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - Huachuang Securities noted that the average revenue per package for the three major express companies improved from July to September, with Shentong increasing by 0.15 RMB, YTO by 0.13 RMB, and Yunda by 0.11 RMB [1] - Shenwan Hongyuan anticipates that the third quarter will see express companies begin to realize profit recovery from price increases, with a focus on profit elasticity in the fourth quarter [1] - The report indicates that the average revenue per package was at a low point in July, but has shown improvement in August and September due to reduced competition, suggesting a positive outlook for the upcoming peak season in October [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the express delivery industry, indicating an expectation for the industry to outperform the overall market [3]. Core Insights - The express delivery sector is experiencing a significant increase in pricing, with September showing a year-on-year growth of approximately 12% in business volume and a 7% increase in revenue [3]. - The report highlights that the average single ticket revenue for September was 7.58 yuan per item, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3% [3]. - The report anticipates that the third quarter will see express companies begin to realize profit recovery due to price increases, with a focus on profit elasticity in the fourth quarter [3]. - The report outlines three scenarios for the new phase of price competition in the industry, including the potential for sustained profit recovery and significant dividends, continued competitive dynamics in certain regions, and the possibility of higher-level mergers and acquisitions [3]. Summary by Sections Business Volume and Revenue - In September, major express companies reported the following business volumes: YTO Express at 2.627 billion items (up 13.64%), Shentong Express at 2.187 billion items (up 9.46%), and Yunda at 2.110 billion items (up 3.63%) [3]. - The average single ticket revenue for YTO was 2.21 yuan (up 1.4%), for Shentong was 2.12 yuan (up 4.95%), and for Yunda was 2.02 yuan (up 0.50%) [3]. Price Trends - The report notes a significant month-on-month increase in pricing across the industry, with Yunda showing the largest recovery in single ticket pricing [3]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing trend of price increases driven by the reduction of internal competition within the industry [3]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the express delivery industry is entering a new phase of competition, with a focus on the upcoming quarterly reports and peak season pricing [3]. - Companies recommended for investment include Shentong Express, YTO Express, and Jitu Express, with a focus on Zhongtong Express and Yunda for their competitive advantages [3]. Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for key companies in the transportation sector, detailing their market capitalization and projected net profits for 2025 to 2027 [4].

Summary of China Logistics Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **China logistics industry**, particularly the express delivery sector, highlighting the performance of key players in September 2025. Key Companies Discussed - **YTO Express (600233 CH)** - **STO Express (002468 CH)** - **Yunda Holding (002120 CH)** - **SF Holding (002352 CH)** - **J&T Express (1519 HK)** - **JD Logistics (2618 HK)** - **ZTO Express (Cayman)** Core Insights and Arguments - **ASP Recovery**: In September 2025, the Average Selling Price (ASP) for Tongda players showed recovery, with YTO, STO, and Yunda increasing their ASP by Rmb 6, 6, and 10 cents month-over-month, translating to year-over-year changes of +1.1%, +4.95%, and +0.5% respectively [1][1][1] - **Revenue Growth**: - YTO achieved a **14.9% year-over-year revenue growth** with a **13.6% parcel volume growth**. - STO also reported **14.9% year-over-year revenue growth** with a **9.5% parcel volume growth**. - Yunda underperformed with only **4.1% year-over-year revenue growth** and **3.6% parcel volume growth**. - SF's parcel volume grew by **31.8% year-over-year**, contributing to a **14.2% revenue growth** despite a sequential ASP recovery [1][1][1]. - **Market Positioning**: - YTO and STO are noted for balancing volume and price effectively, while Yunda is expected to continue losing market share. - SF's strong parcel volume growth indicates effective optimization strategies in its economy express segment [1][1][1]. - **Investment Recommendations**: - The current pecking order for e-commerce express players is: **J&T (Buy) > STO (Buy) > ZTO (Buy) > YTO (Neutral) > YUNDA (Sell)**. - For premium express players, the order is **SF (Buy) > JDL (Buy)** [1][1][1]. - **Future Outlook**: - Anticipation of further ASP recovery in the upcoming peak season for e-commerce, which could positively impact ZTO and J&T. - J&T Express is highlighted as a top pick due to its superior parcel volume growth in Southeast Asia and potential ASP recovery in China [1][1][1]. Additional Important Points - **Performance Metrics**: - Detailed metrics for September 2025 show YTO with **2,627 million parcels** (13.6% YoY), STO with **2,187 million parcels** (9.5% YoY), Yunda with **2,110 million parcels** (3.6% YoY), and SF with **1,504 million parcels** (31.8% YoY) [3][3][3]. - **ASP Trends**: - ASP for YTO was Rmb 2.21, for STO Rmb 2.12, for Yunda Rmb 2.02, and for SF Rmb 13.87, indicating significant differences in pricing strategies among the players [3][3][3]. - **Strategic Considerations**: - JDL's valuation is considered attractive with limited downside potential, although uncertainties exist regarding JD's strategies for food delivery and overseas expansion [1][1][1]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, providing insights into the performance and strategic positioning of major players in the China logistics industry.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [8] Core Insights - The travel chain is experiencing a recovery in demand, with ticket prices showing a positive trend and a clear inflection point in revenue [2][5] - The shipping sector is witnessing a seasonal surge in freight rates due to peak season and geopolitical factors [6] - The logistics sector is seeing a year-on-year increase in unit prices for major express delivery companies, with a second round of price hikes initiated [6] Summary by Sections Aviation - Demand recovery is evident, with business travel gradually increasing since September, leading to improved revenue margins. The industry is expected to benefit from a tightening supply side and lower fuel costs, resulting in a resonance of income and costs [5][17] - The introduction of new aircraft is expected to remain slow in 2025, with engine maintenance squeezing capacity. The industry is projected to reach historical highs in capacity utilization [5][17] Shipping - Oil shipping rates are on the rise, with the average VLCC-TCE increasing by 8.7% to $86,000 per day. Geopolitical events and OPEC+ production increases are expected to support the oil shipping market [6][22] - The SCFI index for foreign trade shipping has risen by 12.9% to 1,310 points, driven by increased demand and tariff adjustments [6][22] - The BDI index for bulk shipping has increased by 6.9% to 2,069 points, supported by stable overseas mining shipments [6][22] Logistics - The express delivery sector is seeing a year-on-year increase in unit prices, with a second round of price hikes underway. The overall performance of the sector is expected to improve in Q4 and next year [6][36] - The average daily collection volume for postal express services has decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, indicating seasonal effects and price adjustments [6][36]

Core Viewpoint - The logistics industry is experiencing varied performance among major players, with significant differences in business volume and revenue per package, indicating a competitive landscape and potential investment opportunities. Group 1: Business Volume - SF Express leads the market with a business volume of 15.04 billion pieces, showing a year-on-year growth of 31.8% and a cumulative growth of 28.3% [1] - Shentong and Yunda follow with business volumes of 21.87 billion pieces (9.5% YoY, 17.1% cumulative) and 21.10 billion pieces (3.6% YoY, 13.0% cumulative) respectively [1] - YTO Express has a business volume of 26.27 billion pieces, with a year-on-year growth of 13.6% and a cumulative growth of 19.4% [1] Group 2: Revenue per Package - SF Express reported a revenue per package of 13.87 yuan, down 13.3% YoY but up 4.5% month-on-month [4] - Shentong's revenue per package is 2.12 yuan, reflecting a 5.0% YoY increase and a 2.9% month-on-month increase [4] - Yunda's revenue per package stands at 2.02 yuan, with a slight YoY increase of 0.5% and a month-on-month increase of 5.2% [4] - YTO Express has a revenue per package of 2.21 yuan, showing a 1.1% YoY increase and a 2.8% month-on-month increase [4] Group 3: Overall Revenue - SF Express generated a total revenue of 208.54 billion yuan, marking a 14.2% YoY increase and an 11.8% month-on-month increase [4] - Shentong's total revenue reached 46.33 billion yuan, with a 14.9% YoY increase and a 4.5% month-on-month increase [4] - Yunda reported a total revenue of 42.52 billion yuan, reflecting a 4.1% YoY increase and a 3.2% month-on-month increase [4] - YTO Express achieved a total revenue of 57.99 billion yuan, with a 14.9% YoY increase and a 7.6% month-on-month increase [4] Group 4: Market Trends - The industry is expected to see further performance improvements as the peak season in October approaches, validating the pricing logic observed in August and September [5] - The logistics sector is experiencing a shift towards increased efficiency and profitability, driven by competitive strategies and market dynamics [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the express delivery industry, indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [2][33]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the Tongda system's single ticket revenue has continued to increase month-on-month, with an increase of over 0.1 yuan compared to July, suggesting potential performance elasticity in the future [2]. - The report emphasizes the investment opportunities in the express delivery sector under the "anti-involution" theme, particularly focusing on companies like YTO Express and Shentong Express, which have shown strong performance indicators [7][9]. - The report notes that the express delivery companies have experienced varying growth rates in business volume and revenue, with SF Express leading in business volume growth at 31.8% year-on-year for September [9]. Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The express delivery industry consists of 5 listed companies with a total market value of 341.66 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 328.83 billion yuan [5]. - The absolute performance of the industry over the past 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months has been -5.8%, 5.2%, and 2.9% respectively, while the relative performance has been -5.0%, -14.5%, and -16.3% [5]. Company Performance - In September, the business volume year-on-year growth rates were as follows: SF Express (31.8%), YTO Express (13.6%), Shentong Express (9.5%), and Yunda Express (3.6%) [7][9]. - Revenue growth rates for September were led by Shentong and YTO, both at 14.9%, followed by SF Express at 14.2% and Yunda at 4.1% [9]. - The single ticket revenue for September showed an increase for the Tongda system, with Shentong at 2.12 yuan (up 5.0% year-on-year), Yunda at 2.02 yuan (up 0.5%), and YTO at 2.21 yuan (up 1.1%) [9]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on e-commerce express delivery opportunities, particularly highlighting YTO and Shentong as key investment targets due to their strong performance indicators and potential for revenue and earnings elasticity [7]. - It also suggests continued investment in SF Express, noting its leading business volume growth and potential for sustainable free cash flow optimization [7].