Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [3][4]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the broad housing demand in China has reached a bottom, although the volume and price have not yet entered a positive cycle. It predicts that the overall real estate market will continue to stabilize, with policies aimed at stopping the decline and promoting recovery [3][4]. - The report highlights significant policy support, including over 1.6 trillion yuan allocated for three major projects to stabilize the real estate market and support the delivery of nearly 20 million housing units [31][32]. - The report emphasizes the emergence of a new development track driven by favorable housing policies, which will enhance the penetration of quality housing in core cities [3][4]. Industry Data Summary New Housing Transactions - For the week of September 20-26, 2025, new housing transactions in 34 key cities totaled 2.458 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 17.2%. The transaction volume in first and second-tier cities rose by 15.4%, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a significant increase of 43.8% [4][12]. - In September, the total transaction volume for new homes in 34 cities was 8.078 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [7][8]. Second-Hand Housing Transactions - For the week of September 20-26, 2025, second-hand housing transactions in 13 key cities totaled 1.148 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 3.8%. Cumulatively, September transactions were up 21.2% year-on-year [12][13]. Inventory and Supply - In the week of September 20-26, 2025, 15 key cities launched 1.48 million square meters of new housing, with a transaction volume of 950,000 square meters, resulting in a transaction-to-launch ratio of 0.64. The total available residential area in these cities was 90.309 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 0.6% [21][22]. Policy and News Tracking - The report notes that various local governments are implementing policies to stabilize the real estate market, including subsidies for home purchases and regulations to improve housing quality [31][32]. - Shanghai has introduced new regulations to standardize balcony measurements and support the renovation of old residential areas [31][32]. Company Dynamics - New City Holdings issued USD 1.6 billion in overseas bonds, while Poly Developments announced a plan to issue corporate bonds not exceeding 150 billion yuan [38][39]. - The report tracks significant financing activities, including guarantees provided by major companies for their subsidiaries [38][39].

项目公司的主要业务为房地产发展及营运。项目公司由卖方特意为开发目标地块而新成立。目标地块位 于中国杭州市余杭区，总地盘面积为36,496平方米，将发展作住宅用途。除了开发目标地块发展作住宅 用途出售外，项目公司预期不会参与任何其他业务。 董事们认为，与卖方的合作将提升目标地块的开发效率及资源配置。 买方应付代价总额包括(i)股权转让代价人民币4.04亿元;(ii)利息(预计金额为约人民币169.92万元);及(iii) 股东贷款(预计金额为人民币3.94亿元)。该金额乃根据总土地出让金及项目公司资金的50.5%(即买方于 完成后于项目公司的股权)，连同应付卖方的利息厘定。 越秀地产(00123)公布，于2025年9月26日，买方(该公司的间接非全资附属公司杭州越珑房地产开发有限 公司)与卖方杭州滨江房产集团股份有限公司及项目公司杭州滨德房地产开发有限公司订立合作协议， 据此，在达成先决条件前提下，卖方同意向买方出售项目公司的50.5%股权。于完成后，买方及卖方将 分别持有项目公司50.5%及49.5%股权，及买方及卖方向项目公司提供的股东贷款的比例将分别为50.5% 及49.5%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company has entered into a cooperation agreement to acquire a 50.5% stake in a project company focused on real estate development in Hangzhou, China, which is expected to enhance development efficiency and resource allocation [1][2] Group 1: Transaction Details - The buyer, an indirect non-wholly owned subsidiary of the company, will pay a total consideration of approximately RMB 404 million for the equity transfer [1] - The total consideration includes an estimated interest of about RMB 1.6992 million and expected shareholder loans of RMB 394 million [1] - After the completion of the transaction, the buyer and seller will hold 50.5% and 49.5% stakes in the project company, respectively [1] Group 2: Project Company Overview - The project company is specifically established by the seller for the development of a targeted land parcel located in Yuhang District, Hangzhou [1] - The total land area for the targeted parcel is 36,496 square meters, intended for residential development [1] - The project company is expected to focus solely on the residential development of the targeted land and will not engage in any other business activities [1]

Core Insights - Yuexiu Property (00123.HK) announced a cooperation agreement to acquire 50.5% equity in a project company from Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group and Hangzhou Binde Real Estate Development Co., Ltd. [1] - The total consideration for the acquisition includes a share transfer price of RMB 404 million, estimated interest of RMB 1,699,175, and estimated shareholder loans of RMB 394 million [1] - The project company is specifically established for the development of a residential site located in Yuhang District, Hangzhou, with a total land area of 36,496 square meters [1] Summary by Sections Acquisition Details - The buyer, Hangzhou Yuelong Real Estate Development Co., Ltd., is an indirect non-wholly owned subsidiary of Yuexiu Property [1] - Upon completion, the buyer and seller will hold 50.5% and 49.5% equity in the project company, respectively [1] - The shareholder loan proportions will also reflect the equity holdings, with the buyer providing 50.5% and the seller 49.5% [1] Financial Considerations - The total payment includes: - Share transfer price: RMB 404 million - Estimated interest: RMB 1,699,175 - Estimated shareholder loans: RMB 394 million [1] - The amounts are determined based on the total land transfer fee and the project company's funding [1] Project Overview - The project company focuses on real estate development and operations, specifically for the residential site [1] - The target site is strategically located in Yuhang District, benefiting from well-established commercial, educational, and transportation infrastructure [2] - The seller is a leading real estate company in Hangzhou, known for its quality and strong customer reputation, which is expected to enhance the development efficiency and resource allocation of the target site [2]

Group 1 - The real estate sector showed resilience, with the CSI 800 Real Estate Index rising nearly 1% to reach a new high for the year, driven by significant gains in stocks like China Merchants Shekou (+3.86%) and Binjiang Group (+2.29%) [1] - The only ETF tracking the CSI 800 Real Estate Index (159707) saw a peak increase of 3% during the day, closing up 1.15% with a trading volume of nearly 80 million yuan, indicating strong investor interest with a net subscription of 23.5 million units [1] Group 2 - The new round of housing market regulation in Shanghai has shown significant short-term effects, with new home transaction volumes increasing by over 30% in the first week and a total increase of 19% compared to the previous month [3] - Analysts from Zhongyin Securities suggest that structural policy relaxations in major cities may lead to a short-term rebound in the housing market, highlighting the potential for high-quality real estate companies to outperform [3] - Guotou Securities anticipates improved new home sales due to increased supply from developers and the release of pent-up demand from relaxed regulations in core cities, alongside expectations of interest rate cuts [3] Group 3 - The CSI 800 Real Estate Index currently has a price-to-book (PB) ratio of only 0.8, indicating a significant undervaluation at the 22nd percentile over the past decade, suggesting substantial room for valuation recovery [4] - Analysts recommend accumulating real estate stocks, particularly focusing on central state-owned enterprises and high-quality developers, due to the low valuation levels and potential liquidity boosts from anticipated interest rate cuts [4] Group 4 - The real estate ETF (159707) tracks the CSI 800 Real Estate Index and includes 13 leading real estate companies, showcasing a high concentration of top-tier firms, with the top ten constituents accounting for over 90% of the index [6][7] - The presence of central state-owned enterprises in the ETF enhances its resilience amid industry challenges, positioning leading real estate firms for greater flexibility and potential recovery [7]

Group 1 - The real estate sector showed strong performance, with the CSI 800 Real Estate Index rising by 2.68% as of 10:49 AM on September 26 [1] - Leading stocks included China Merchants Shekou, which surged by 5.53%, followed by Binjiang Group at 4.58%, and New Town Holdings at 3.26% [1] - The only ETF tracking the CSI 800 Real Estate Index, the real estate ETF (159707), saw an increase of 3.01%, with a trading volume exceeding 67 million yuan and a net subscription of 18 million units [1] Group 2 - A new round of housing market regulation in Shanghai has shown significant short-term effects, with new home transaction volumes increasing by over 30% in the first week and a total increase of 19% compared to the previous month [1] - According to Zhongyin Securities, structural policy relaxations in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen may lead to a short-term rebound in the real estate market [3] - The real estate ETF (159707) tracks the CSI 800 Real Estate Index, which includes 13 leading real estate companies, demonstrating a high concentration of top-tier firms with over 90% weight in the top ten constituents [3]

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" compared to the market [1]. Core Insights - The real estate market in August 2025 showed a narrowing year-on-year decline in transaction volume due to low base effects, while land auction premiums in first-tier cities reached a six-year high [1][2]. - The overall performance of the real estate sector underperformed the CSI 300 index, with an absolute return of 6.5% and a relative return of -3.9% [2][13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of policy adjustments in major cities to stimulate market activity, particularly in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen [4][24]. Summary by Sections New Home Transactions - In August, new home transaction area in 40 cities was 859.1 million square meters, down 0.5% month-on-month and down 13.5% year-on-year, with a cumulative decline of 5.0% for the first eight months [14][17]. - First-tier cities experienced an expanded year-on-year decline in new home transactions, while second-tier cities saw a narrowing decline, and third- and fourth-tier cities turned positive [15][16]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - Second-hand home transaction area in 18 cities was 715.6 million square meters in August, down 9.2% month-on-month and down 6.4% year-on-year, with a cumulative increase of 7.5% for the first eight months [22][23]. - Year-on-year declines in second-hand home transactions narrowed in first- and second-tier cities, while third- and fourth-tier cities showed positive growth [23]. Inventory and Absorption - New home inventory increased month-on-month, with an overall absorption cycle of 17.1 months, down 0.3 months from the previous month [4][9]. - The average opening absorption rate in 30 cities improved to 42% in August, up 9 percentage points month-on-month and 13 percentage points year-on-year [4][9]. Land Market - Overall land auction activity declined month-on-month, but first-tier cities saw land premium rates reach a six-year high, averaging 22.3% [4][12]. - The average land floor price decreased by 13.4% month-on-month and 21.5% year-on-year [12]. Real Estate Companies - The top 100 real estate companies reported a sales decline of 16.5% year-on-year in August, with a total sales amount of 225.6 billion yuan [4][12]. - The land acquisition amount for the top 100 companies increased by 34.9% year-on-year in August, although it decreased by 27.1% month-on-month [4][12]. Financing - The financing scale for the real estate industry decreased both year-on-year and month-on-month in August, with a total issuance of 55.3 billion yuan [4][12]. - The average issuance interest rate was 2.51%, showing a slight decrease compared to previous periods [4][12]. Policy - Recent policy adjustments in major cities aim to support the real estate market, with a focus on urban renewal and easing purchase restrictions [4][24]. - The report highlights the significance of these policies in stabilizing market expectations and promoting demand [4][24].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report indicates that new housing transaction areas have shown a month-on-month increase, while real estate development investment has decreased year-on-year from January to August 2025 [3] - The report highlights that the decline in housing prices has been consistent since 2022, with a significant drop in both new and second-hand housing prices across 70 cities, although the rate of decline has started to narrow due to supportive policies [5][16] - It emphasizes that the relationship between population growth and housing prices is not straightforward, as effective housing demand driven by economic development and income growth is crucial for influencing prices [5][25] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The real estate market has entered a downward trend since 2022, with new and second-hand housing prices experiencing a decline for over 40 months [5][16] - As of August 2025, the new housing price index across 70 cities has decreased by 3.0% year-on-year, while the second-hand housing price index has dropped by 5.5% [16][20] Population Impact - The report concludes that population factors are long-term variables with limited mid-term impact on housing prices, as the marginal changes in housing prices are influenced more by monetary policy, supply-demand relationships, and economic expectations [25][39] - A regression analysis across several developed countries shows that housing price indices do not have a significant correlation with population growth rates [40][42] International Experience - The report draws parallels with international experiences, noting that stable fiscal and monetary policies are essential for stabilizing housing prices after declines [6][46] - It cites examples from the U.S., Japan, and South Korea, where coordinated fiscal and monetary policies have successfully supported housing market recovery after significant downturns [46][49] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on real estate companies with strong credit ratings and solid fundamentals in urban areas, such as China Overseas Development and Poly Developments [7] - It also suggests that companies excelling in both residential and commercial real estate, as well as those providing high-quality property management services, are well-positioned for growth [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the impact of mid-term population changes on housing prices in developed countries/regions is limited, as there is no significant positive correlation between housing price indices and population growth rates or numbers [1] - From 2022, housing prices in 70 cities have entered a downward trend, with a widening decline expected in Q3 2024, although the year-on-year decline has narrowed since Q4 due to supportive policies [1] - The current adjustment cycle in the housing market has seen both new and second-hand housing price indices decline for over 40 months [1] Group 2 - Historical data shows that housing prices in developed countries/regions have experienced fluctuations since the 1980s, with price corrections often exceeding those in China, but eventually stabilizing [2] - Key factors for stabilizing and recovering housing prices include coordinated fiscal and monetary policies, such as large-scale quantitative easing, interest rate cuts, and fiscal subsidies [2] - A stable policy outlook, low interest rate environment, and improved supply-demand structure are crucial for halting the decline and stabilizing the real estate market [2] Group 3 - The stabilization of housing prices is influenced by multiple factors, including monetary policy, supply-demand relationships, and economic expectations, rather than solely by population dynamics [3] - Recommended investment targets include strong credit property companies with good urban fundamentals and leading product capabilities, as well as firms that can drive both residential and commercial real estate [3] - The increasing penetration rate of second-hand housing indicates a promising outlook for the real estate after-service sector [3]

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate sector as "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Insights - New home transaction area has turned positive on a month-on-month basis, with a year-on-year increase expanding. The transaction area for new homes reached 1.87 million square meters, up 11.8% month-on-month and 25.8% year-on-year, with a significant increase in year-on-year growth by 20.6 percentage points [5][15][24] - The Shanghai government has optimized the property tax policy for non-resident buyers, allowing for a tax exemption on 60 square meters per person for families purchasing second or more homes, effective from January 1, 2025 [1] Summary by Sections 1. Key City New Home Market, Second-Hand Home Market, and Inventory Tracking - In the week of September 13 to September 19, 2025, the new home transaction area increased month-on-month, while the second-hand home transaction area decreased month-on-month. The inventory area for new homes increased month-on-month, and the de-stocking cycle rose [15] - New home transaction volume in 40 cities was 19,000 units, up 12.8% month-on-month and 37.8% year-on-year. The new home transaction area was 1.87 million square meters, with similar increases [16][24] - The inventory of new homes in 12 cities was 1.404 million units, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 15.0% [27][39] 2. Land Market Tracking - The total land transaction area across 100 cities was 1.115 million square meters, down 10.9% month-on-month and 39.5% year-on-year. The total land transaction price was 14.33 billion yuan, down 49.1% month-on-month and 73.1% year-on-year [60][64] - The average land price per square meter was 1,289.5 yuan, with a month-on-month decrease of 42.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 55.5% [61][66] 3. Company Announcements and Bond Issuance - The total bond issuance in the real estate sector was 8.71 billion yuan, up 18.9% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year. The total repayment amount was 15.8 billion yuan, up 43.5% month-on-month and 102.6% year-on-year [54][56] - The report highlights key companies such as Binjiang Group, China Resources Land, and Yuexiu Property as potential investment opportunities based on their market positioning and performance [5][13]