新浪财经"酒价内参"过去24小时中收集的数据显示，中国白酒市场十大单品的终端零售均价在1月6日未 能延续反弹，整体价格再度显著下行，创下双十二以来新低。如果十大单品各取一瓶整体打包售卖，今 日总售价为9068元，较昨日回落13元，价格中枢再度下探。 今日市场呈显著分化格局，五涨五跌，核心产品的价格压力突出。上涨产品方面，青花郎延续强势，环 比上涨17元/瓶，实现大幅二连阳领涨市场。习酒君品价格上涨12元/瓶，反弹力度较大。洋河梦之蓝 M6+价格上涨6元/瓶。水晶剑南春价格上涨4元/瓶。国窖1573价格上涨2元/瓶。下跌产品方面，受i茅台 推出平价茅台影响的逐渐传递，飞天茅台的价格回调幅度惊人，大幅下跌35元/瓶，对市场整体价格形 成明显影响。精品茅台价格下跌9元/瓶。青花汾20价格下跌6元/瓶。五粮液普五八代价格下跌3元/瓶。 古井贡古20价格小跌1元/瓶。 "酒价内参"的每日数据源自全国各大区均有合理分布的约200个采集点，包括但不限于酒企的指定经销 商、社会经销商、主流电商平台和零售网点等，原始取样数据为过去24个小时中各点位经手的真实成交 终端零售价格，力求为社会各界提供一份关于知名白酒市场价格的客观、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor market is experiencing a significant price decline, with the average retail price of the top ten liquor products hitting a new low since the Double Twelve shopping festival, indicating a notable market correction [1]. Price Trends - The overall price of the top ten liquor products decreased to 9068 yuan, down 13 yuan from the previous day, reflecting a downward trend in the price center [1]. - The market shows a clear divergence, with five products increasing in price and five decreasing [1]. Price Increases - Qinghua Lang saw a strong performance with a price increase of 17 yuan per bottle, marking a significant two-day rise [1]. - Xijiu Junpin's price rose by 12 yuan per bottle, indicating a robust rebound [1]. - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ increased by 6 yuan per bottle, while Shuijing Jian Nan Chun rose by 4 yuan per bottle [1]. - Guojiao 1573 experienced a slight increase of 2 yuan per bottle [1]. Price Decreases - The price of Feitian Moutai dropped significantly by 35 yuan per bottle, influenced by the introduction of a more affordable Moutai product [1]. - The price of Boutique Moutai fell by 9 yuan per bottle, and Qinghua Fen 20 decreased by 6 yuan per bottle [1]. - Wuliangye Pu 58th generation saw a decline of 3 yuan per bottle, while Gujing Gong Gu 20 dropped by 1 yuan per bottle [1]. Data Collection Methodology - The data is sourced from approximately 200 collection points across various regions, including designated distributors, social distributors, mainstream e-commerce platforms, and retail outlets, ensuring a comprehensive and objective representation of the liquor market prices [2].

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant decline in the retail prices of major Chinese liquor brands, with the overall price reaching a new low since the "Double Twelve" shopping festival [1][6]. Price Trends - The average retail price of the top ten liquor products in China on January 6 fell to 9068 yuan, a decrease of 13 yuan from the previous day, indicating a downward trend in price levels [1][6]. - The market exhibited a notable divergence, with five products increasing in price and five decreasing, reflecting significant pricing pressure on core products [7]. Price Changes of Key Products - The following products experienced price increases: - Qinghua Lang rose by 17 yuan per bottle - Xijiu Junpin increased by 12 yuan per bottle - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ went up by 6 yuan per bottle - Shuijing Jianan Chun increased by 4 yuan per bottle - Guojiao 1573 saw a rise of 2 yuan per bottle [7]. - Conversely, the following products saw price declines: - Feitian Moutai dropped by 35 yuan per bottle, significantly impacting the overall market price - Boutique Moutai decreased by 9 yuan per bottle - Qinghua Fen 20 fell by 6 yuan per bottle - Wuliangye Pu 58th generation decreased by 3 yuan per bottle - Gujing Gong Gu 20 saw a minor drop of 1 yuan per bottle [7][9]. Data Collection Methodology - The daily data for the liquor price reference is sourced from approximately 200 collection points across various regions, including designated distributors, social distributors, mainstream e-commerce platforms, and retail outlets, aiming to provide objective and traceable market price data [2][7]. iMoutai App Launch - Starting January 6, iMoutai allows users to purchase two types of Guizhou Moutai products via its app, with options for selecting production dates, either past or future, enhancing consumer purchasing flexibility [2][7].

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant decline in the retail prices of major Chinese liquor brands, with the average price of the top ten products reaching a new low since December 12, indicating ongoing market pressure [1][6]. Price Trends - The overall retail price of the top ten liquor products on January 6 is reported at 9068 yuan, a decrease of 13 yuan from the previous day, marking a downward trend in price levels [1][6]. - The market shows a notable divergence with five products increasing in price and five decreasing, reflecting varying pressures on core products [7]. Price Increases - Key products that saw price increases include: - Qinghua Lang, which rose by 17 yuan per bottle, continuing its strong performance [7]. - Xijiu Junpin, which increased by 12 yuan per bottle, showing significant rebound strength [7]. - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ with a rise of 6 yuan per bottle [7]. - Shuijing Jian Nan Chun up by 4 yuan per bottle [7]. - Guojiao 1573, which increased by 2 yuan per bottle [7]. Price Decreases - Major products experiencing price declines include: - Feitian Moutai, which saw a dramatic drop of 35 yuan per bottle, significantly impacting the overall market price [7]. - Boutique Moutai down by 9 yuan per bottle [7]. - Qinghua Fen 20 decreased by 6 yuan per bottle [7]. - Wuliangye Pu 58th generation down by 3 yuan per bottle [7]. - Gujing Gong Gu 20 with a slight decrease of 1 yuan per bottle [7]. Data Collection Methodology - The daily data for the liquor price reference is sourced from approximately 200 collection points across various regions, including designated distributors, social distributors, mainstream e-commerce platforms, and retail outlets, aiming to provide objective and traceable market price data [2][7]. iMoutai App Update - Starting January 6, iMoutai allows users to purchase two types of Moutai products via its app, with options for selecting production dates, enhancing consumer access to the products [2][7].

Industry Environment - The liquor industry is undergoing a channel transformation, with traditional inventory strategies failing and instant retail emerging as a new opportunity. Leading companies like Moutai and Luzhou Laojiao are exploring online channels and new models such as "live streaming + instant fulfillment" [3] - The scattered liquor market is expected to grow from 80 billion yuan in 2024 to over 100 billion yuan in 2025, driven by companies like Gujing Gongjiu and Kuozi Jiao, which are targeting young consumers with experiential and diverse product offerings [5] - The competition in the liquor industry is shifting towards "value deepening," with companies focusing on product reconstruction and cultural resonance to meet the demands of younger and female consumers [6] Market Trends - The trend of low-alcohol liquor is gaining traction, with major brands like Wuliangye and Gujing Gongjiu launching new products to cater to younger consumers' preferences for lower alcohol content. The low-alcohol market is projected to reach 57 billion yuan by 2025 [7] - The white liquor market is experiencing a shift from "face consumption" to "substance consumption," with a focus on quality and experience rather than just brand prestige [9][14] - The scattered liquor market is becoming a new growth area, with brands leveraging community consumption and flexible pricing strategies to attract consumers [20][21] Sales and Marketing Strategies - Companies are increasingly focusing on enhancing bottle opening rates to address high inventory levels and declining consumption. Some brands have reported significant increases in opening rates through targeted marketing strategies [15] - The concept of "user co-creation" is emerging as a key strategy for brands to engage consumers and enhance brand loyalty, with companies like Wuliangye and Fenjiu exploring new ways to connect with their audience [16][17] - The wedding market is seeing a resurgence, with a 30% increase in wedding events in certain regions, although overall liquor consumption at these events is declining due to economic pressures [19] Brand Dynamics - Moutai is facing challenges with declining prices and inventory buildup, prompting the company to optimize its product structure and marketing strategies to attract younger consumers [12][14] - The introduction of new products and collaborations, such as the partnership between Water Well and actor Tony Leung, is aimed at enhancing brand image and connecting with consumers on an emotional level [26][34] - The rise of health-oriented products, particularly in the health liquor segment, is attracting younger female consumers, with brands like Jinjiu successfully tapping into this demographic [36] Future Outlook - The liquor industry is expected to continue evolving, with a focus on digital transformation and the integration of AI technologies to enhance operational efficiency and consumer engagement [37] - The scattered liquor market is projected to exceed 100 billion yuan, indicating a significant shift in consumer preferences towards more affordable and accessible options [20][21] - The industry is likely to see a continued emphasis on quality and value, as brands adapt to changing consumer demands and market conditions [22][29]

Overall Industry Review - The food and beverage sector significantly underperformed the market, with a year-to-date decline of -0.62%, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index by 15.0 percentage points [7][11] - The snack sector showed strong performance with a year-to-date increase of 28.88%, driven by channel expansion and a total revenue growth of 30.97% in the first three quarters of 2025 [11] - The beverage sector, particularly soft drinks, benefited from travel demand and low-price, high-frequency consumption, achieving a revenue and profit growth in double digits [11][14] Alcoholic Beverages - The liquor sector exhibited weak performance, with a decline in sales and prices, particularly for white liquor, which saw a year-on-year revenue drop of -5.83% and a net profit decline of -6.93% in the first three quarters of 2025 [11][44] - The overall white liquor sector's revenue decreased by -5.8% and net profit by -6.9% in the first three quarters of 2025, with a significant drop in Q3, where total revenue fell by -18.4% [44] - The report indicates that the white liquor industry is in a prolonged adjustment phase, with the current downturn lasting 57 months, marking the longest adjustment period in history [35][40] Future Outlook - The central economic work conference emphasized the importance of boosting domestic demand in 2026, with expectations for policy support to stimulate recovery [3] - The report suggests focusing on sectors with low bases for recovery, such as frozen foods and beverages, which are expected to benefit from demand recovery and new product opportunities [3][4] - The report highlights the potential for structural opportunities in the food and beverage sector, particularly in overseas markets and cost improvements, recommending companies like Anqi Yeast and Mijiu Group for their overseas expansion strategies [4][34] Investment Strategies - The report identifies four key investment themes for 2026: opportunities in overseas markets, cost benefits, new product launches, and value-for-money consumption [4] - Companies with strong platform capabilities and innovative products, such as Dongpeng Beverage and Wancheng Group, are recommended for their potential in the beverage sector [4] - The report also emphasizes the importance of identifying companies that can adapt to a low-inflation, low-confidence environment by offering high-value products [14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the liquor industry, indicating an expectation that the industry index will outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [21]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the demand for liquor is showing weak recovery, with a year-on-year decline of over 20% during the New Year period, although there is a slight month-on-month improvement from November and December [4]. - The report notes that the high-end liquor prices are under pressure, with a decline of over 10% for high-end products and 5-10% for mid-range products, while the mass consumption segment remains resilient [4]. - The report anticipates a narrowing of the decline in demand for the upcoming Spring Festival, with expectations of a double-digit decline but less severe than during the New Year [4]. - The report emphasizes that the pricing for high-end liquor will remain under pressure, with expectations of continued marginal declines in prices [4]. Industry Overview - The liquor industry consists of 20 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 288.22 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 288.18 billion yuan [1]. - The report provides a comparative performance analysis, indicating absolute performance declines of -6.0% over one month, -1.4% over six months, and -9.9% over twelve months [2]. Company Feedback and Strategies - Moutai is focusing on market-oriented transformation and has introduced a digital platform to stimulate consumer demand [5]. - Wuliangye is emphasizing sales growth and market order maintenance, with a strategy to enhance market share in the 800 yuan price range [5]. - Luzhou Laojiao plans to increase subsidies and rebates to ensure consumer affordability while maintaining its brand position [5]. - Shanxi Fenjiu is focusing on key markets and maintaining growth momentum for its premium products [5]. - Yanghe is adjusting its sales strategies based on terminal orders and distributor inventory, with a focus on maintaining reasonable inventory levels [5]. - Jinsiyuan is experiencing growth in its mass price segment, which is expected to continue contributing to overall growth [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that pessimistic factors have been priced in, and as the Spring Festival approaches, demand is expected to recover, particularly for Moutai and Gujing [4]. - The report recommends focusing on Moutai for its high certainty and dividend yield, while also highlighting Gujing as a key player in the mass price segment [4].

Core Viewpoint - Today, 11 stocks received buy ratings from institutions, with Tian Ci Materials having its rating upgraded and Min Sida and China National Foreign Trade being newly covered by institutions [1] Group 1: Institutional Ratings - A total of 13 buy ratings were issued today, covering 11 stocks, with Tian Ci Materials and Guizhou Moutai receiving the highest attention, each having 2 buy ratings [1] - Among the stocks rated, 6 provided future target prices, with 5 stocks showing an upside potential exceeding 20%. Guizhou Moutai has the highest upside potential at 82.33%, with a target price of 2600.00 yuan set by Huachuang Securities [1][2] - Other stocks with significant upside potential include Qibin Group and Shiji Information, with upside potentials of 73.03% and 30.30% respectively [1] Group 2: Market Performance - The average increase for stocks with buy ratings today was 2.96%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index. Ten stocks saw price increases, with Min Sida, Qibin Group, and Shiji Information leading the gains at 8.72%, 5.06%, and 4.52% respectively [1] Group 3: Individual Stock Ratings - Guizhou Moutai received a strong buy rating from Huachuang Securities with a target price of 2600.00 yuan and a latest closing price of 1426.00 yuan [2] - Min Sida was rated as "Increase" by GF Securities with a target price of 54.34 yuan and a latest closing price of 44.49 yuan [2] - Tian Ci Materials received buy ratings from both CITIC Securities and Western Securities, with a latest closing price of 48.04 yuan [2]

来源：翠鸟资本 净值不上不下，反弹力度有限，持有人开始频繁问一个问题：白酒到底还行不行？ 在很多普通投资者的记忆里，白酒指数曾经是一条清晰而省心的赛道。不用选股，不用判断公司治理， 只要我国消费升级存在，白酒龙头就会走出趋势。 招商中证白酒指数LOF就是这一轮逻辑下的典型代表之一，但是，当时间拉长到最近几年，这种熟悉的 安全感正在被反复消耗。 站在今天回看这只产品的阶段性表现，它并不是突然失效，而是被完整地拖进了一个行业与估值同步消 化的周期里。 下跌时间长 从阶段性数据看，招商中证白酒指数基金A份额的表现给人的第一感受是：乏力。 截至2025年12月26日，产品近3个月下跌5.91%。近1年下跌11.27%，近2年下跌20.14%，近3年下跌 36.15%。 这组数据的特点很清晰：下跌时间长，反弹幅度弱。 即便在近6个月内实现0.72%的微弱正收益，也很难给投资者带来明显的信心修复。 但同时也要看到，这并不是一只出现极端回撤或结构性失控的产品，而是一种典型的行业横盘期指数表 现。 什么情况？ 这意味着可以得出一个非常直接的结论：招商中证白酒指数的表现，本质上就是几家核心白酒公司的加 权组合。 当茅台、五粮液 ...

Core Viewpoint - Yanghe Co., Ltd. is actively reducing inventory and is expected to operate with a lighter burden in the future, as the industry faces pressure from demand fluctuations [1] Industry Summary - The overall industry is experiencing certain pressures due to demand-side fluctuations, which necessitates a reduction in growth expectations and maintenance of channel health to alleviate inventory cycle volatility [1] Company Summary - The company is currently assisting distributors in inventory clearance, leading to a gradual return to a healthy and positive channel [1] - Future earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 2.25 yuan for 2025 and 2.66 yuan for 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 27 and 23 times [1] - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on these projections [1]