Core Viewpoint - The beer industry is experiencing a decline in sales volume, but there is a positive trend in cost optimization, particularly due to falling raw material prices and a shift towards high-end products. Group 1: Company Performance - Chongqing Beer reported a revenue of 14.645 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.222 billion yuan for 2024, with sales volume reaching 2.9749 million kiloliters [1] - High-end product sales for Chongqing Beer increased by 1.37% year-on-year, accounting for nearly 49% of total sales [1] - The proportion of canned products in Chongqing Beer’s sales rose to 26%, an increase of 3.5 percentage points [1] Group 2: Cost Optimization - Major beer companies, including China Resources Beer, Budweiser APAC, Qingdao Beer, and Chongqing Beer, have all seen reductions in operating costs [2] - Qingdao Beer’s operating costs decreased by 7.72%, while Chongqing Beer’s operating costs saw a slight reduction of 0.03% [2] - The decline in costs is attributed to lower prices for barley, packaging materials, and effective cost control measures [2][4] Group 3: Raw Material Trends - The price of imported barley in China is expected to decline by approximately 20% compared to 2023, with a 10% decrease anticipated by the end of 2024 [7] - Glass prices in China are at a relative low over the past three years, and the average market price for corrugated paper has also seen a decline [8] - The overall trend of decreasing raw material costs is expected to continue into 2025, benefiting the beer industry [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [7][18]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 5.731 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.56%, and a net profit of 810 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 29.95% [1]. - The company has shown strong performance in the premium beer segment, with a sales volume of 143.96 thousand tons in 2024, up 2.62% year-on-year, while the industry overall saw a decline of 0.6% [2]. - The net profit margin improved by 2.5 percentage points to 14.5% in 2024, driven by a 3.5 percentage point increase in gross margin due to structural upgrades and cost reductions [3]. - The company is projected to continue its growth trajectory with revenue growth rates of 8%, 7%, and 6% for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively, and net profit growth rates of 18%, 14%, and 12% for the same period [4]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company's revenue is expected to reach 5.731 billion yuan, with a net profit of 810 million yuan, and an EBITDA of 1.204 billion yuan [6]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.28 yuan in 2023 to 0.37 yuan in 2024 [6]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 36.24 in 2023 to 27.89 in 2024, indicating improved valuation metrics [6]. Sales and Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the revenue from high-end, mid-range, and mass-market segments is expected to be 3.9 billion yuan, 1.24 billion yuan, and 370 million yuan, respectively, with high-end revenue growing by 14% [2]. - The company’s sales channels show significant growth in supermarkets and e-commerce, with revenues increasing by 46.7% and 20.5%, respectively, while night venues faced some pressure [2]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The company achieved a reduction in unit costs by 2.5% year-on-year, with raw material costs decreasing by 4% [3]. - The gross margin for high-end beer products improved by 2.9 percentage points, highlighting the benefits of scale and cost efficiencies [3].

公司报告 | 年报点评报告 珠江啤酒（002461） 证券研究报告 结构升级延续，成本红利兑现 24 年业绩分拆：2024 年营业收入 57.31 亿元，同比+6.56%；归母净利 8.10 亿元，同比+29.95%；扣非净利 7.62 亿元，同比+36.79%。Q4 营业收入 8.44 亿元，同比+2.1%；归母净利 0.04 亿元，同比扭亏；扣非净利-0.06 亿元， 同比减亏 0.40 亿元。 高档双位数增长，量价跑赢行业。 24 年啤酒销量 143.96 万吨，同比+2.62%（行业产量同比-0.6%）；啤酒业务 吨价 3828 元，同比+4.3%。 1、分档次看：24 年高档/中档/大众化收入为 39.0/12.4/3.7 亿元，同比 +14.0%/-11.4%/+13.5%；高档（纯生、雪堡等）销量同比+13.96%（吨价持 平），带动高档收入占比+4.3pct 至 71%，结构持续优化。 2、分渠道看：24 年普通/商超/夜场/电商收入为 51.6/2.0/0.9/0.7 亿元，同 比+ 6.0%/+46.7%/-4.7%/+20.5%，夜场有所承压，商超&电商快速成长。 3、分区域看，24 年 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 董思远 徐爽 冯萱 SAC：S0490517070016 SAC：S0490520030001 SAC：S0490524060001 SFC：BQK487 公司研究丨点评报告丨珠江啤酒（002461.SZ） [Table_Title] 珠江啤酒 2024 年年报点评：高档酒逆势扩容， 公司净利率再创新高 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司 2024 年营业总收入 57.31 亿元（同比+6.56%）；归母净利润 8.1 亿元（同比+29.95%）， 扣非净利润 7.62 亿元（同比+36.79%），其中 2024Q4 营业总收入 8.44 亿元（同比+2.11%）； 归母净利润 373.51 万元，扣非净利润-628.77 万元。 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 事件评论 丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_Title 珠江啤酒 2024 2] 年年报点评：高档酒逆势扩容， 公司净利率再创新高 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 珠江啤酒（002461.SZ） cjz ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zhujiang Beer (002461) with a current price of 10.14 CNY and a target price not specified for the next 6 months [1]. Core Insights - The company achieved a significant increase in both volume and price, leading to a notable improvement in profitability for the year [1]. - The total revenue for 2024 was 57.31 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.56%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 8.10 billion CNY, up 29.95% year-on-year [3][8]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.70 CNY per 10 shares to all shareholders [8]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profitability**: - Revenue for 2024 was 57.31 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 6.56%. The net profit was 8.10 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 29.95% [3][8]. - In Q4 2024, revenue was 8.4 billion CNY, up 2.1% year-on-year, and net profit was 0.04 billion CNY, up 118.8% year-on-year [8]. - **Sales Volume and Pricing**: - The company sold 144,000 tons of beer in 2024, a 2.6% increase year-on-year. The average price per ton increased by 4.3% to 3,828 CNY [8]. - High-end product sales grew by 16% year-on-year, driven by the increasing market share of the pure draft series [8]. - **Cost and Margin Analysis**: - The gross margin for 2024 was 46.3%, an increase of 3.5 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin improved by 2.5 percentage points to 14.5% [8]. - The cost per ton decreased by 2.4% to 2,103 CNY, contributing to the overall margin improvement [8]. Future Outlook - The company has a clear "3+N" brand strategy aimed at enhancing the high-end product mix, which is expected to drive further revenue growth [9]. - Forecasts for 2025-2027 predict EPS of 0.43 CNY, 0.48 CNY, and 0.54 CNY, with corresponding dynamic PE ratios of 23, 21, and 19 [3][9].

（文/朱道义 编辑/张广凯） 扎根华南39年的啤酒巨头，近日交出了代表性区域型酒企的转型答卷。 对此，酒类分析师蔡学飞表示："虽然目前整体啤酒行业呈现复杂的发展趋势，但是品质消费的大方向 没有变化，消费者更加个性化与特色化的消费习惯正在深刻影响市场。珠江啤酒借此趋势推广了包括珠 江P9、珠江啤酒1985等在内的高端啤酒，不仅完善了产品线，还拉升了整体产品结构，提升了盈利能 力。" 但值得注意的是，经测算，珠江啤酒中高档产品的总营收占比已接近90%，这也意味着高端化战略未来 的上升空间已非常有限。 此外，更为严峻的是，珠江啤酒的全国化进程遭遇了滑铁卢，区域市场的依赖性凸显。去年，公司华南 地区贡献的营收为54.91亿元，同比增长了7.45%，占比则高达95.81%；非华南地区只有2.41亿元，同比 下滑了10.37%，占比则由2023年的4.98%进一步下降至4.19%。 这也导致珠江啤酒尽管在业绩方面的表现颇为亮眼，但因迟迟未能"走出去"，经营风险正在进一步加 剧。不过，蔡学飞指出，啤酒本身消费场景广泛，适应人群众多。随着消费的多元化，高端啤酒市场虽 然短期内受制于经济环境影响，但是在行业龙头企业的引领下，啤 ...

Core Viewpoint - The beer industry in China is experiencing a decline in sales volume, with major players facing challenges, while some smaller brands are showing growth in both sales and profitability [1][2][4]. Sales Performance - In 2024, major beer companies in China reported sales volume changes: Budweiser APAC down 11.8%, Qingdao Beer down 5.86%, China Resources Beer down 2.5%, Chongqing Beer down 0.75%, Yanjing Beer up 1.6%, and Zhujiang Beer up 2.62% [2][4]. - The overall beer production in China decreased by 0.6% in 2024, indicating a decline in consumer sentiment towards daily fast-moving consumer goods [2]. Market Dynamics - The gap in market share among major players has narrowed, with leading companies like China Resources, Qingdao, and Budweiser all experiencing declines in revenue and sales, while Yanjing and Zhujiang have continued to grow beyond industry levels [4]. - Zhujiang Beer saw a nearly 37% increase in net profit, while Yanjing Beer’s net profit surged by over 50% [4]. Premiumization Trends - Yanjing Beer achieved total sales exceeding 4 million kiloliters in 2024, with its flagship product Yanjing U8 selling close to 700,000 kiloliters, marking a growth rate of over 30% for two consecutive years [5]. - Zhujiang Beer reported a nearly 14% increase in sales of high-end beer products in 2024 [5]. Challenges for Leading Brands - Budweiser APAC faced a 1.4% decline in revenue per hectoliter in China, while Qingdao Beer’s sales of mid-to-high-end products dropped by 2.65% [6]. - Despite overall revenue and sales declines, leading beer companies emphasize that their premium products continue to grow, with China Resources Beer reporting that mid-range and above beer sales exceeded 50% of total sales for the first time [7]. Pricing and Profitability - The ton price for major brands in 2024 was as follows: China Resources Beer over 3,300 yuan, Qingdao Beer over 4,200 yuan, Budweiser APAC over 5,300 yuan, Chongqing Beer over 5,200 yuan, while Yanjing and Zhujiang Beer were around 3,100 yuan and 3,800 yuan respectively [9]. - Despite slight revenue declines, China Resources and Qingdao Beer still reported revenues exceeding 36 billion yuan and 32 billion yuan respectively, indicating a significant lead over smaller competitors [11]. Future Outlook - The beer industry, while facing volume declines, still has potential for slow growth if price increases can outpace volume decreases [11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Add" [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.731 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 6.56%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 810 million yuan, up 29.95% year-over-year [1][2] - The gross margin and net margin have significantly improved, with the gross margin at 46.30% (up 3.48 percentage points) and net margin at 14.50% (up 2.53 percentage points), primarily due to lower raw material costs and product mix upgrades [2][3] - The company has seen strong performance in high-end products, with high-end product revenue reaching 3.904 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 13.97%, and accounting for 70.84% of total revenue [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 5.731 billion yuan and a net profit of 810 million yuan, with a year-over-year growth of 6.56% and 29.95% respectively [1] - The company’s gross profit margin improved to 46.30%, while the net profit margin reached 14.50% [2] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from different channels in 2024: ordinary channel 5.155 billion yuan (+6.00%), supermarkets 198 million yuan (+46.71%), night venues 88 million yuan (-4.72%), and e-commerce 71 million yuan (+20.51%) [3] - High-end products showed the highest growth, with sales volume of high-end beer increasing by 13.96% year-over-year [3] Future Projections - The company expects steady revenue growth, with projected revenues of 6.188 billion yuan in 2025, 6.681 billion yuan in 2026, and 7.182 billion yuan in 2027 [4] - The forecasted net profit for 2025 is 896 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 10.60% year-over-year [4][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Add" [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.731 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 6.56%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 810 million yuan, up 29.95% year-over-year [1][2] - The gross margin and net margin have significantly improved, with the gross margin at 46.30% (up 3.48 percentage points) and net margin at 14.50% (up 2.53 percentage points), primarily due to lower raw material costs and product mix upgrades [2][3] - The company has seen strong performance in high-end products, with revenue from high-end products reaching 3.904 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 13.97%, and accounting for 70.84% of total revenue [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 5.731 billion yuan and a net profit of 810 million yuan, with a year-over-year growth of 6.56% and 29.95% respectively [1] - The company’s gross profit margin improved to 46.30%, and net profit margin increased to 14.50% [2] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from different channels for 2024: ordinary channel 5.155 billion yuan (+6.00%), supermarkets 198 million yuan (+46.71%), night venues 88 million yuan (-4.72%), and e-commerce 71 million yuan (+20.51%) [3] - High-end products showed the highest growth, with sales volume of high-end beer increasing by 13.96% year-over-year [3] Product and Market Strategy - The company is expanding its product matrix and enhancing product strength by integrating elements of sports, music, and food, and hosting events like the Pearl River Beer Music Festival [4][10] - The company is actively pursuing high-end product development and has introduced new products to align with market trends [10] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain steady growth, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 at 896 million yuan, 967 million yuan, and 1.059 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-over-year growth rates of 10.60%, 7.95%, and 9.46% [10][12]

Core Viewpoint - The beer industry in China is experiencing a decline in sales and revenue, with major players facing challenges in maintaining growth, while some smaller brands are gaining market share and profitability [1][3]. Group 1: Company Performance - Qingdao Beer reported a revenue of 32.138 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decline of 5.3%, with a net profit of 4.345 billion yuan, an increase of 1.8%, and sales volume of 7.538 million kiloliters, down 5.86% [1]. - Among the five major beer companies, four experienced a decline in sales last year, with Budweiser APAC down 11.8%, Qingdao Beer down 5.86%, China Resources Beer down 2.5%, and Chongqing Beer down 0.75% [1]. - Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer were exceptions, with Yanjing Beer growing by 1.6% and Zhujiang Beer by 2.62% [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The market share gap among major players has narrowed, with leading companies like China Resources, Qingdao, and Budweiser all facing revenue and sales declines, while Yanjing and Zhujiang continue to grow beyond industry levels [3]. - Yanjing Beer achieved total sales exceeding 4 million kiloliters in 2024, with its flagship product Yanjing U8 seeing sales close to 700,000 kiloliters, growing over 30% for two consecutive years [3]. - Zhujiang Beer reported a nearly 14% increase in high-end beer product sales year-on-year, with net profit rising by nearly 37% [3]. Group 3: Pricing and Profitability - Despite overall revenue and sales declines, leading beer companies emphasize growth in their premium products, with China Resources reporting that mid-range and above beer sales accounted for over 50% of its total sales [3]. - The average price per ton for China Resources Beer exceeded 3,300 yuan, Qingdao Beer over 4,200 yuan, Budweiser APAC over 5,300 yuan, and Chongqing Beer over 5,200 yuan, while Yanjing and Zhujiang's prices were around 3,100 yuan and 3,800 yuan respectively [5]. - The leading companies still maintain significant revenue advantages, with China Resources and Qingdao Beer generating revenues of over 36 billion yuan and 32 billion yuan respectively, while Chongqing Beer, Yanjing Beer, and Zhujiang Beer reported revenues of 14.6 billion yuan, less than 13 billion yuan, and 5.7 billion yuan respectively [7].