Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 11.80, up from the previous forecast of 11.20 [2][12]. Core Views - The company is expected to outperform the industry in terms of sales volume for the full year 2024, with a continued upward trend in ton price and structure, alongside a significant decrease in ton cost, leading to an expansion in gross sales margin [3][12]. - The report highlights that the company is entering a channel destocking phase in Q4 2024, which is anticipated to lay a solid foundation for growth in 2025 [3][12]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 was 5,378 million, projected to increase to 5,731 million in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.6% [5]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 624 million in 2023 to 810 million in 2024, marking a significant increase of 30% [5]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to grow from 0.28 in 2023 to 0.37 in 2024 [5]. Sales and Profitability - The company achieved beer sales of 1.4396 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.62%, with high-end beer product sales rising by 13.96% [12]. - The average selling price of beer increased by 4.3% to 3,828 yuan per ton, driven by strong sales of high-end products [12]. - The gross profit margin improved by 3.5 percentage points in 2024, with a net profit margin of 14.1% [12]. Cost Management - The ton cost of beer decreased by 2.4% to 2,103 yuan, attributed to lower barley prices and stable packaging material costs [12]. - The report indicates a notable improvement in cost management, with various expense ratios showing slight declines, contributing to enhanced profitability [12]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The company’s premium product line is expected to continue driving structural improvements and sales growth, benefiting from a favorable channel structure and competitive pricing [12]. - The report suggests that the company’s production efficiency and ongoing cost improvements will support steady profit growth in the future [12].

智通财经记者 | 张艺 啤酒界"华南王"珠江啤酒（002461.SZ）披露了一份史上最好成绩单。 珠江啤酒2024年实现营业收入57.31亿元，同比增长6.65%；归母净利润8.10亿元，同比增长29.95%。两项指标双双创下历史新高，也优 于行业整体表现。 智通财经发现，珠江啤酒业绩创新高的同时，面临三大隐忧。首先，公司靠产品高端化来提高利润水平，但其中高端产品占比已高，提 升空间有限。 其次，募资使用效率问题。七年前定增募资的43亿元，还有26亿元躺在资金专户收利息，多个项目推进缓慢。 去年年报透露出最重要的问题在于，珠江啤酒全国化进程不进反退，在整体营收增长的同时，非华南地区的营收下降超10%。 显然这不是管理层想看到的。正因全国化迟滞不前，公司营收增长也十分缓慢，规模已远远落后"啤酒五强"公司。 那么，珠江啤酒全国化为何难以有效拓展？公司下一个增长引擎在哪？ 珠江啤酒证券部人士回应智通财经，公司正努力通过持续完善全国营销网络，加强广东省外市场的开拓，增强公司在其他地区的影响 力。同时该人士认为，公司中高端市场还有一定的增长空间。 量价齐升拉动业绩 营收突破新高，归母净利润跳过7亿元区间，直接站上8亿元 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 10.14 CNY [6]. Core Views - The company has shown impressive performance in terms of volume and price, with significant profit growth in 2024. Total revenue reached 5.731 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 6.56%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 810 million CNY, up 29.95% [1][4]. - The company outperformed the industry average, driven by a high proportion of non-draft beer and effective channel profit cycles. Beer revenue was 5.511 billion CNY, a 7% increase year-on-year, with sales volume at 1.4396 million tons, up 2.62% [2][3]. - Cost advantages and product structure upgrades contributed to an increase in gross margin, which rose by 3.5 percentage points to 46.3% in 2024. The company effectively controlled expenses, leading to a net profit margin of 13.3%, an increase of 2.9 percentage points [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 5.731 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 6.56%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 810 million CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 29.95% [5][10]. - The company expects revenue for 2025-2027 to be 6.087 billion CNY, 6.388 billion CNY, and 6.648 billion CNY, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.2%, 5.0%, and 4.1% [4][5]. Profitability - The gross margin improved to 46.3% in 2024, driven by a 2.5% decrease in cost per ton, primarily due to lower raw material prices. The net profit margin reached 14.14% [3][9]. - The company anticipates continued growth in profitability, with net profit projections of 973 million CNY, 1.107 billion CNY, and 1.216 billion CNY for 2025-2027, representing growth rates of 20.1%, 13.7%, and 9.9% [4][5]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focused on the growth cycle of its flagship product, 97 Pure Draft, and aims to enhance its market presence in Southern China. The strategy includes deepening marketing reforms and expanding the mid-to-high-end product matrix [3][4]. - The company plans to strengthen its restaurant channel operations and innovate in channel capabilities, which are expected to drive revenue growth [2][3].

珠江啤酒（002461.SZ）2024 年年报点评 量价表现亮眼，盈利显著向上 2025 年 03 月 29 日 ➢ 事件：2025 年 3 月 27 日，公司发布 2024 年年报。2024 年公司实现营业 总收入 / 归 母 净 利 润 / 扣 非 归 母 净 利 润 57.31/8.10/7.62 亿元，同比 +6.56%/+29.95%/+36.79%。经测算，24Q4 公司实现营收/归母净利润/扣非 归母净利润实现 8.44/0.04/-0.06 亿元，营收同比+2.11%；归母净利润同期亏 损 0.2 亿元，扭亏为盈；扣非归母净利润同期亏损 0.47 亿元，显著减亏。 ➢ 量价表现亮眼好于行业平均，非现饮占比高+渠道利润周期创造α。24 年公 司啤酒收入 55.11 亿元，同比+7%，分量价来看，销量 143.96 万吨，同比+2.62% （同期我国规上啤酒企业产量同比-0.6%），吨价 3828 元，同比+4.3%，预计 量价均好于行业平均。产品结构来看，高档/中档/大众化啤酒产品分别 39.04/12.39/3.68 亿 元 ， 同 比 +14.0%/-11.4%/+13.5% ，占比分别 7 ...

Core Insights - Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery reported a revenue of 5.731 billion yuan for 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.56% and a net profit of 810 million yuan, up 29.95% [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.7 yuan per 10 shares to all shareholders [1] Revenue Breakdown - The beer business generated 5.511 billion yuan in revenue, reflecting a 7.04% increase year-on-year [1] - Revenue by channel: 5.155 billion yuan from ordinary sales, 198 million yuan from supermarkets, 88 million yuan from night venues, and 71 million yuan from e-commerce, with growth rates of 6%, 46.71%, -4.72%, and 20.51% respectively [1] - Gross margins by channel: 44.64% for ordinary sales, 58.44% for supermarkets, 36.33% for night venues, and 49.61% for e-commerce [1] Regional Performance - The South China region contributed 95.02% of total revenue, approximately 5.491 billion yuan, while other regions accounted for only 4.98%, a decrease from 6.81% in the first half of the year [1] Product Category Performance - Revenue from premium, mid-range, and mass-market beer products reached 3.904 billion yuan, 1.239 billion yuan, and 368 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of 13.97%, -11.41%, and 13.48% respectively [2] - The beer industry in China is entering a stable development phase, with significant competition but opportunities for structural upgrades in consumption [2] Industry Context - Despite a general decline in the domestic beer industry, Zhujiang Brewery's volume and price performance outpaced the industry, benefiting from strong brand recognition and the successful iteration of its premium product "97 Pure Draft" [3] - The overall beer production in China decreased by 0.6% in 2024, with large-scale enterprises producing 35.213 million kiloliters [2] - The trend towards quality consumption continues to influence the market, with consumers favoring personalized and distinctive products [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Zhujiang Beer with a target price of 11.76, compared to the last closing price of 10.30 [1]. Core Insights - Zhujiang Beer achieved a revenue of 5.731 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.56%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 810 million, up 29.95% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 762 million, reflecting a 36.79% increase [4][5]. - The sales volume of beer in 2024 was affected by demand, with a slight decline in overall production in China. However, Zhujiang Beer managed to increase its sales volume by 2.6% to 143.96 million tons and the average price per ton rose by 4.3% to 3828 [5][6]. - The company continues to optimize its product structure, launching new products like Zhujiang P9 and Zhujiang Beer 1985, while the flagship product, 97 Pure Draft, is expected to maintain double-digit growth [5][6]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, Zhujiang Beer reported a revenue of 844 million, a year-on-year increase of 2.11%, with net profit soaring by 118.74% to 4 million [4]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 reached 46.30%, an increase of 3.5 percentage points year-on-year, driven by product structure upgrades and cost optimization [5][10]. - The company forecasts revenue growth rates of 6% for 2025, 6% for 2026, and 5% for 2027, with net profit growth rates of 15%, 10%, and 9% respectively [5][6]. Market Position and Strategy - Zhujiang Beer has shown resilience in the South China market, with revenue from the region increasing by 7.5% to 5.49 billion, while other regions experienced a decline of 10.4% [5]. - The company has optimized its distributor network, with a net decrease of 114 distributors in Guangdong but an increase of 16 in other regions [5]. - The report highlights the ongoing structural upgrades and cost reductions as key drivers for improved profitability and market competitiveness [5][10].

Core Viewpoint - The company achieved a revenue of 5.73 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 810 million yuan, up 30.0% year-on-year, and a non-recurring net profit of 760 million yuan, up 36.8% year-on-year, aligning with performance forecasts [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 840 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, and a net profit of 4 million yuan, marking a turnaround from a loss of 20 million yuan in Q4 2023 [1] - The company’s beer volume and price increased by 2.6% and 3.8% respectively in 2024, with Q4 showing a volume increase of 2.1% and stable pricing [1][2] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 46.3%, an increase of 3.5 percentage points year-on-year, driven by a decrease in raw material costs and structural upgrades [3] Group 2: Product and Market Dynamics - In 2024, beer sales reached 1.44 million tons, with a price increase of 3.8%, reflecting a structural improvement in product offerings [2] - High-end products, particularly the 97 Pure Draft beer, saw a sales increase of 14.0% year-on-year, benefiting from improved market dynamics in Guangdong province [2] - Revenue from different sales channels showed varied performance, with supermarkets and e-commerce channels growing by 46.7% and 20.5% respectively, while night venues experienced a decline of 4.7% [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company maintains a "buy" rating, projecting earnings per share (EPS) of 0.45 yuan and 0.52 yuan for 2025 and 2026 respectively, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of net profit expected at 23% from 2024 to 2026 [4] - The target price for 2025 is set at 12.60 yuan, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 28x, reflecting confidence in continued growth and market share improvement [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 5.731 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 810 million RMB, up 30.0% year-on-year [1][4] - The company’s beer sales volume increased by 2.6% year-on-year, with a price increase of 3.8%, indicating a strong performance in both volume and pricing [2][3] - The report highlights the structural upgrade in product offerings, particularly the high-end products like 97 Pure Draft, which benefited from improved market dynamics in Guangdong province [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 46.3%, an increase of 3.5 percentage points year-on-year, driven by lower raw material costs and structural upgrades [3] - The net profit margin for 2024 increased by 2.5 percentage points to 14.1% [3] Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from beer, yeast feed, packaging materials, and restaurant leasing services in 2024 was 5.551 billion, 5 million, 60 million, and 90 million RMB respectively, with beer revenue growing by 7.0% year-on-year [2] - The sales revenue from different channels showed varied performance, with supermarkets seeing a significant increase of 46.7% year-on-year [2] Future Outlook - The report projects an EPS of 0.45 RMB for 2025 and 0.52 RMB for 2026, with a target price of 12.60 RMB based on a PE ratio of 28x for 2025 [4][8] - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of offline consumption and the continued growth of high-end products [3][4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 5.731 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.56%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 810 million yuan, which is a 29.95% increase year-on-year [7] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 1.7 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 376 million yuan, with a payout ratio of 46% [7] - The company is expected to benefit from a decrease in raw material costs and an upgrade in product structure, leading to improved gross margins and profitability forecasts for 2025 to 2027 [7] - The company has a strong market presence in Guangdong and South China, with potential for further national expansion [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Projected total revenue for 2025 is 6.066 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.8% [6] - Expected net profit for 2025 is 925 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.1% [6] - The gross margin is projected to improve to 47.3% in 2025, up from 46.3% in 2024 [6] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to reach 8.4% in 2025 [6] Market Performance - The company’s beer sales volume for 2024 was 143.96 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.62%, with premium beer sales growing by 13.96% [7] - The average price per ton of beer in 2024 was 3,828 yuan, an increase of 4.3% year-on-year [7] - The company has introduced new products to strengthen its product matrix and is focusing on both traditional and new retail channels for growth [7]

高档啤酒销量同比增长19%，结构持续升级。根据公司公告，分量价看，2024 年公司实现啤酒销量 143.96 万吨，同比增长2.62%，其中高档啤酒销量同比增长13.96%；测算啤酒吨价为3828 元/吨，同比 增长4.3%。分结构看，2024 年高档/中档/大众化啤酒分别实现营业收入39/12.4/3.7 亿，分别同比增长 13.97%/-11.41%/13.48%。2024 年，公司在产品端推出珠江P9、珠江1985 等新品，夯实产品矩阵，在渠 道端精耕传统渠道，深耕新零售渠道，实现良好的增长。展望2025 年，我们认为公司在广东市场依然 有渠道精耕下沉的空间，若终端餐饮需求回暖，那么纯生等单品依然有望延续良好的增长。 事件：公司披露2024 年报。根据公司公告，2024 年公司实现营业总收入57.31 亿，同比增长6.56%，归 母净利润8.1 亿，同比增长29.95%，扣非净利润7.6 亿，同比增长36.79%。 原材料成本下降和吨价提升推动盈利能力提升。根据公司公告，2024 年公司啤酒业务吨成本为2103 元/ 吨，同比下降2.4%，叠加吨价提升，2024 年啤酒毛利率同比提升3.77pct到45 ...