Core Insights - The A-share non-ferrous metal industry is projected to achieve a total revenue of 1.82 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.49%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 953.63 billion yuan, marking a significant increase of 36.55% [2][3] Revenue and Profit Growth - Over 70% of companies in the non-ferrous metal sector reported year-on-year revenue growth in the first half of 2025, with major players like Jiangxi Copper, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum leading in revenue [2][6] - The average gross profit margin for A-share non-ferrous metal companies in the first half of 2025 is approximately 17.71%, an increase of 0.14 percentage points compared to the previous year [8][12] Company Performance - Zijin Mining achieved a net profit of 232.92 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 54.41%, significantly outperforming other companies [6][11] - Companies such as Shenghe Resources and Tianqi Lithium have successfully turned losses into profits during this period [7][11] Notable Companies - The top three companies by revenue in the non-ferrous metal industry for the first half of 2025 are: - Jiangxi Copper: 2569.59 billion yuan - Zijin Mining: 1677.11 billion yuan - China Aluminum: 1163.92 billion yuan [6][8] - Other companies that reported significant revenue growth include Pengxin Resources, which saw a 100.21% increase in revenue [7][11]

Core Insights - The energy metals sector experienced a significant increase of 4.85% on September 29, with Boqian New Materials leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3862.53, up 0.9%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13479.43, up 2.05% [1] Sector Performance - Boqian New Materials (605376) saw a closing price of 59.49, with a rise of 10.00% and a trading volume of 18,400 lots, amounting to 110 million yuan [1] - Ganfeng Lithium (002460) closed at 58.50, up 7.83%, with a trading volume of 1,189,500 lots and a transaction value of 6.772 billion yuan [1] - Other notable performers included: - Sai Rui Aluminum (300618) at 53.24, up 5.78% [1] - Huayou Cobalt (603799) at 60.25, up 5.46% [1] - Tengyuan Diamond (301219) at 72.27, up 5.20% [1] Capital Flow - The energy metals sector saw a net inflow of 1.344 billion yuan from main funds, while retail funds experienced a net outflow of 828 million yuan [1] - Ganfeng Lithium had a main fund net inflow of 5.42 billion yuan, but retail funds saw a net outflow of 2.96 billion yuan [2] - Huayou Cobalt also reported a main fund net inflow of 4.97 billion yuan, with retail funds experiencing a net outflow of 4.53 billion yuan [2]

Core Viewpoint - Tianqi Lithium Industries has seen a stock price increase of 3.73% on September 29, reaching 46.44 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 76.218 billion CNY, reflecting a cumulative increase of 8.45% over four consecutive days [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Tianqi Lithium Industries, established on October 16, 1995, and listed on August 31, 2010, is located in Chengdu, Sichuan Province. The company specializes in the production and sales of lithium concentrate products and lithium compounds and their derivatives [1] - The revenue composition of Tianqi Lithium Industries is as follows: lithium compounds and derivatives account for 50.54%, lithium ore for 49.25%, and other products for 0.21% [1] Group 2: Fund Holdings - Silver Hua Fund has a significant holding in Tianqi Lithium Industries through its Silver New Energy Materials Quantitative Stock Fund A (005037), which held 343,200 shares, representing 2.21% of the fund's net value, making it the sixth-largest holding [2] - During the four-day stock price increase, the fund has realized a floating profit of approximately 124,240 CNY, with a daily profit of about 57,310 CNY [2] Group 3: Fund Manager Performance - The fund managers of Silver New Energy Materials Quantitative Stock Fund A include Zhang Kai, Yang Teng, and Li Yixuan, with varying tenures and performance records [3] - Zhang Kai has a tenure of 12 years and 323 days, with a best fund return of 130.54% and a worst return of -43.75% [3] - Yang Teng has been managing the fund for 3 years and 306 days, achieving a best return of 25.32% and a worst return of -34.29% [3] - Li Yixuan has a tenure of 7 years and 281 days, with a best return of 95.92% and a worst return of -32.56% [3]

Group 1 - Tianqi Lithium Industries Inc. experienced a stock price increase of 3.73% on September 29, reaching 46.44 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 4.014 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 5.92%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 76.218 billion CNY [1] - The stock has risen for four consecutive days, accumulating a total increase of 8.45% during this period [1] - The company, founded on October 16, 1995, and listed on August 31, 2010, primarily engages in the production and sales of lithium concentrate products and lithium compounds, with revenue composition being 50.54% from lithium compounds and derivatives, 49.25% from lithium ore, and 0.21% from other sources [1] Group 2 - According to data from the top ten holdings of funds, one fund under Huatai-PineBridge has a significant position in Tianqi Lithium, specifically the Huatai-PineBridge CSI New Energy Vehicle Industry ETF (516390), which reduced its holdings by 19,000 shares in the second quarter, maintaining 261,000 shares, representing 2.65% of the fund's net value [2] - The fund has realized a floating profit of approximately 435,900 CNY today and a total floating profit of 944,800 CNY during the four-day increase [2] - The Huatai-PineBridge CSI New Energy Vehicle Industry ETF was established on June 3, 2021, with a current size of 316 million CNY, achieving a year-to-date return of 48.53% and a one-year return of 76.57%, ranking 629 out of 4,221 and 751 out of 3,836 in its category, respectively [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term lithium carbonate futures have not obtained marginal drivers to break through the 74,000 - point resistance. Supply - side new capacity release and overseas lithium mine cost optimization are potential negatives, while demand - side new energy vehicle sales growth and stronger cathode material prices provide support. The strengthening basis shows the need for futures - spot structure repair, and pre - holiday downstream point - price procurement may limit the downside space, but the shrinking position indicates that funds lack confidence in breaking through the previous high. There is a risk of a slight downward shift in the price center if demand growth is lower than supply release [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Futures Market Data Changes**: On September 26, the lithium carbonate main contract was reported at 72,880 yuan/ton, down 1,160 yuan from the previous day. The basis strengthened significantly to 620 yuan/ton, reversing 1,160 yuan from the previous day. The main contract position decreased by 4.79% to 248,600 lots, a new low in the past five days, while the trading volume increased by 40.35% to 481,000 lots, indicating active short - term trading due to price fluctuations [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes**: On the supply side, the price of spodumene concentrate remained at 6,390 yuan/ton. Australia's Core Lithium completed the restart study of the Finniss project, with mining costs reduced by 40%, which may enhance the supply elasticity of spodumene in the future. Tibet Mining's Zabuye Salt Lake's 10,000 - ton lithium carbonate project was officially put into production, and Tianqi Lithium's 30,000 - ton lithium hydroxide project in Zhangjiagang was completed, gradually releasing domestic lithium salt production capacity. The proportion of spodumene process exceeded 60%, and the supply structure tended to be stable. On the demand side, according to the Passenger Car Association, new energy vehicle retail sales increased by 10% year - on - year on September 21, and the demand for power batteries remained resilient. The price of ternary materials continued to rise, with the power - type ternary material exceeding 121,300 yuan/ton, and lithium hexafluorophosphate rising to 58,300 yuan/ton. The price of lithium iron phosphate slightly decreased by 40 yuan to 33,600 yuan/ton. The social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased for five consecutive weeks to 136,800 tons, a decrease of 706 tons compared with September 19 [2]. 3.2 Industry Chain Price Monitoring - **Price Changes**: On September 26, the lithium carbonate main contract price decreased by 1.57% to 72,880 yuan/ton; the basis increased by 214.81% to 620 yuan/ton; the main contract position decreased by 4.79% to 248,640 lots; the main contract trading volume increased by 40.35% to 481,020 lots. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 73,500 yuan/ton, and the market prices of spodumene concentrate and lepidolite concentrate also remained unchanged. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased by 0.43% to 58,250 yuan/ton, the power - type ternary material increased by 0.50% to 121,350 yuan/ton, and the power - type lithium iron phosphate decreased by 0.12% to 33,650 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate remained at 71.31%, and the inventory decreased by 0.51% to 136,825 tons [5]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - **Spot Market Quotes**: On September 26, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,491 yuan/ton, down 187 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The price range of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 72,800 - 74,400 yuan/ton, with an average price of 73,600 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from the previous working day; the price range of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 70,750 - 71,950 yuan/ton, with an average price of 71,350 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The lithium carbonate futures price continued to fluctuate, with the main contract oscillating between 72,100 - 74,500 yuan/ton. Downstream material factories made point - price actions at low points and returned to a cautious waiting - and - seeing attitude after the price rebounded. The proportion of lithium carbonate produced from spodumene exceeded 60%, while the proportion of lithium carbonate produced from lepidolite decreased to 15%. In September, the market showed a situation of simultaneous growth in supply and demand, but the demand growth rate was faster, and it was expected that there would be a stage of tight supply in that month [6]. - **Downstream Consumption**: From September 1 - 21, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market were 697,000, a year - on - year increase of 10% and a month - on - month increase of 11%. The retail penetration rate was 58.5%, and the cumulative retail sales this year were 8.267 million, a year - on - year increase of 24%. The wholesale volume of new energy vehicles by national passenger car manufacturers was 724,000, a year - on - year increase of 10% and a month - on - month increase of 19%. The wholesale penetration rate was 55.4%, and the cumulative wholesale volume this year was 9.668 million, a year - on - year increase of 31% [7]. - **Industry News**: On September 20, the electromechanical equipment of EVE Energy's Hungary base officially entered, marking the project's civil engineering entering a critical stage. The base is expected to be completed in 2026 and will supply large - cylindrical batteries to BMW Group's Debrecen factory. On September 25, Tianqi Lithium's 30,000 - ton battery - grade lithium hydroxide project in Zhangjiagang was completed and put into production. On September 20 - 24, Tibet Mining's 10,000 - ton lithium carbonate project in Zabuye Salt Lake completed a 120 - hour functional assessment, marking its official operation, which is expected to significantly improve the domestic lithium resource self - sufficiency rate [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal industry index in China has shown strong performance, with significant increases in various stocks, driven by a government plan aimed at stabilizing growth in the sector and rising gold prices reaching historical highs [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Performance - As of September 29, 2025, the non-ferrous metal industry index (399395) rose by 3.10%, with notable stock increases including Vanadium Titanium Co. (000629) up 10.00%, Xingye Silver Tin (000426) up 9.11%, and Tongling Nonferrous Metals (000630) up 7.77% [1]. - The non-ferrous ETF fund (159880) also increased by 3.07%, with the latest price reported at 1.61 yuan [1]. Group 2: Government Initiatives - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with eight other departments, issued the "Non-Ferrous Metal Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" to support the sector [1]. Group 3: Commodity Insights - East Wu Securities forecasts that copper prices will remain strong due to anticipated supply contractions and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, while aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate amid weak demand [1]. - The gold market is influenced by a shift in the Federal Reserve's stance during the global central bank conference in August, with expectations of continued inflation and declining nominal interest rates, suggesting a broad potential for precious metals [1]. Group 4: ETF Composition - The non-ferrous metal industry index includes 50 prominent securities based on size and liquidity, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in the sector [2]. - As of August 29, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index accounted for 50.35% of the total, including Zijin Mining (601899) and Northern Rare Earth (600111) [2].

Core Insights - The article highlights the strong performance of the non-ferrous metal sector, particularly the increase in the price of copper and aluminum, driven by supply disruptions and demand recovery [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal ETF showed a stable performance with a 1.5% increase in price and a transaction volume of 1.4755 million yuan, bringing the fund's total size to 303 million yuan [1] - Key stocks such as Baiyin Nonferrous, Guiyan Platinum, and Xingye Silver Tin saw significant gains of 3.6%, 3.23%, and 2.92% respectively, while Shenghe Resources experienced a decline of 1.41% [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The Grasberg copper mine, the second largest globally, has halted production due to an accident, leading Freeport to project a significant decrease in copper sales by Q4 2025 and a potential 35% drop in production in 2026, exacerbating supply tightness [1] - The aluminum sector is witnessing a positive trend with successful technological advancements in aluminum alloy materials for automotive applications, recognized by high-end clients like BMW and Mercedes, which is expected to drive industry transformation [1] Group 3: Price Outlook - Tianfeng Securities indicates a bullish sentiment in the copper market, with prices expected to continue rising due to supply-demand dynamics and a favorable outlook for aluminum prices supported by inventory reductions and seasonal demand [1][2] - The cobalt sector is facing increased prices due to export bans and quota policies from the Democratic Republic of Congo, leading to a tightening of raw material supply [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Views of the Report - Last week, the fundamentals of the lithium carbonate market improved marginally, and the market's gaming enthusiasm cooled down, resulting in no significant fluctuations in lithium prices. The supply of lithium carbonate reached a new high, but the inventory scale decreased. The demand for energy storage remained strong, and the high - frequency sales growth rate of the power terminal rebounded. However, the market was concerned about the direction of lithium mines on September 30th, and the trading volume of the main contract decreased, indicating that both long and short positions were withdrawing their bets on the direction of lithium mines on September 30th [4]. - In the later stage, the direction of lithium mines may be the only disturbing factor, and the price will fluctuate. This week, there are only two trading days for lithium carbonate, and without the influence of external markets, the market may wait for the final ruling of lithium mines in Jiangxi. The marginal variables of the fundamentals have limited influence, and the downstream pre - holiday stockpiling is mostly over. The trading in the spot market may gradually stagnate, and the core of the market gaming is still on the resource ruling. Therefore, the trend direction of lithium prices is not clear, and the market gaming has cooled down. The short - term view is that the price will remain volatile [4][15]. Summary by Directory Market Data - The prices of imported lithium raw ore (1.3% - 2.2%), imported lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%), and domestic lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) remained unchanged from September 19th to September 26th, 2025. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1.46% to 7.29 million yuan/ton, and the industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot price dropped to 0, a decrease of 100%. The price of the lithium carbonate main contract decreased by 1.46% to 7.27 million yuan/ton. The prices of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse and fine particles) increased slightly. The total lithium carbonate inventory increased by 0.10% to 130,581 tons. The price of cobalt acid lithium increased by 6.85%, and the prices of ternary materials also increased slightly [6]. Market Analysis and Outlook Last Week's Market Analysis - **Regulatory and Delivery**: As of September 26, 2025, the total warehouse receipt scale of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 40,329 tons, and the latest matching transaction price was 74,700 yuan/ton. The position scale of the main contract 2511 was 248,600 lots [8]. - **Supply Side**: As of September 26, the weekly output of lithium carbonate was 21,469 tons, an increase of 344 tons from the previous period. New production capacities were put into operation, such as the lithium extraction project from Zabuye Salt Lake of Tibet Mining with a designed annual capacity of about 12,000 tons, and Tianqi Lithium's 30,000 - ton lithium salt project in Zhangjiagang [8]. - **Lithium Salt Import**: In August, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 21,847 tons, a month - on - month increase of 58% and a year - on - year increase of 25%. The import from Chile was about 15,608 tons, a month - on - month increase of 82%, accounting for about 71%. The import from Argentina was 4,253 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8%, accounting for about 19%. The average import price decreased by about 14% [9]. - **Lithium Ore Import**: In August, the total import of lithium ore was about 619,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.51%. The import from Australia decreased by 50.5% to 212,000 tons, the import from Zimbabwe increased by 84% to 118,000 tons, and the import from Nigeria decreased by 9.6% to 105,000 tons. The imports from Mali and Brazil increased significantly [10][11]. - **Demand**: - **Downstream Cathode Materials**: As of September 26, the output of lithium iron phosphate was about 78,166 tons, with an operating rate of 68.79%, a decrease of 0.05 percentage points from the previous period, and the inventory decreased by 96 tons. The output of ternary materials was about 18,070 tons, with an operating rate of 47.28%, an increase of 0.28 percentage points from the previous period, and the inventory increased by 60 tons. The prices of both lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased slightly, but the market trading became colder, and the downstream pre - holiday stockpiling was mostly over [12]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: From September 1st to 21st, the retail sales of the domestic new - energy passenger vehicle market were 697,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 10% and a month - on - month increase of 11%. The retail penetration rate was 58.5%, and the cumulative retail sales this year were 8.267 million units, a year - on - year increase of 24%. Overseas, Trump announced a 15% tariff on EU - imported cars and auto parts. In China, the high - frequency sales growth rate continued to pick up, but there were still concerns about the terminal consumption market [13]. - **Inventory**: As of September 26, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 130,581 tons, an increase of about 135 tons from the previous period. The factory inventory increased by about 375 tons, the market inventory decreased by about 1,085 tons, and the exchange inventory increased by 845 lots [14]. This Week's Outlook - The direction of lithium mines may be the only disturbing factor, and the price will fluctuate. With only two trading days this week and no influence from external markets, the market may wait for the final ruling of lithium mines in Jiangxi. The marginal variables of the fundamentals have limited influence, and the downstream pre - holiday stockpiling is mostly over. The trading in the spot market may gradually stagnate, and the core of the market gaming is still on the resource ruling. Therefore, the trend direction of lithium prices is not clear, and the short - term view is that the price will remain volatile [15]. Industry News - Tianqi Lithium's 30,000 - ton battery - grade lithium hydroxide project was officially completed and put into operation on September 25th in Zhangjiagang [16]. - Tibet Mining's battery - grade lithium carbonate project in Zabuye Salt Lake was officially put into production. It is the world's first large - scale salt - lake lithium extraction industrial device using a combination of membrane separation and MVR evaporation crystallization technology [16]. - The first - phase lithium carbonate project of Luopu Xihai New Energy Materials Co., Ltd. was put into operation on September 20th, with an annual production capacity of 300,000 tons of lithium concentrate processing and 30,000 tons of battery - grade lithium carbonate [16]. Relevant Charts - The document provides multiple charts showing the price trends, production, and import volume of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and the production of new - energy vehicle batteries from 2022 to 2025 [18][20][22]

Battery - Chuangneng New Energy launched a new generation 588Ah energy storage battery with an energy density of 190Wh/kg and a volume energy density of 419Wh/L, achieving an energy efficiency of 96.5%. The company plans to have over 200GWh of production capacity, with small-scale production expected in Q2 2026 and full-scale production in Q3 2026 [1] - EVE Energy's first large-capacity sodium-ion battery energy storage system has successfully entered commercial operation, featuring a cycle life of over 30,000 times and operational capabilities in a temperature range of -40℃ to +60℃, significantly reducing lifecycle carbon emissions by over 42% compared to lithium-ion batteries [2][3] Materials - Greenme's Qingmeibang park has opened a nickel electroplating production line with an annual capacity of 30,000 tons, achieving a nickel plate product purity of over 99.97%, contributing to a total global production capacity of 60,000 tons for Greenme [5][6] - Tianqi Lithium's battery-grade lithium hydroxide project, with a total investment of approximately 1.8 billion yuan, has been completed and put into production in Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone [7] - Tibet Mining's battery-grade lithium carbonate project has officially commenced production, utilizing a complex membrane separation and MVR lithium extraction process, marking a significant achievement in challenging high-altitude conditions [8] Equipment - Mannesmann has completed the dual-line product layout for solid-state batteries, with multiple devices shipped and customer validation achieved [10] Battery Recycling - A project for processing waste lithium batteries has been publicly announced, aiming to handle approximately 11,000 tons of waste batteries annually using a low-temperature physical crushing technology developed by Southern University of Science and Technology, which avoids the pollution and high energy consumption associated with traditional methods [11]

Group 1: Rare Metal ETF Performance - The Rare Metal ETF has a turnover rate of 3.51% and a transaction volume of 87.15 million yuan [3] - As of September 25, the ETF has seen an average daily transaction volume of 208 million yuan over the past month, ranking first among comparable funds [3] - The ETF's scale has increased by 247 million yuan this month, also ranking first among comparable funds [3] - The ETF's shares have grown by 43.5 million shares this month, achieving significant growth and ranking first among comparable funds [3] - Over the past 19 trading days, the ETF has experienced net inflows on 10 days, totaling 423 million yuan [3] - The ETF's net value has increased by 79.68% over the past year [3] - The highest monthly return since inception is 24.02%, with the longest consecutive monthly gains being 4 months and a maximum increase of 58.56% [3] - The average monthly return during rising months is 8.77%, and the ETF has outperformed the benchmark with an annualized return of 5.45% over the past three months [3] Group 2: Silicon Carbide and Rare Metals Market Trends - Silicon carbide prices have risen by 5.7% to 5,600 yuan per ton, reaching a three-month high, while high-purity gallium prices have increased by 1.1% due to recovering demand in the semiconductor sector [4] - The strategic importance of silicon carbide as a core substrate is increasing with its penetration in new energy vehicles, photovoltaic inverters, and 5G base stations [4] - Although short-term price fluctuations are influenced by production capacity release, the long-term outlook for the silicon carbide industry remains positive due to accelerated domestic substitution and increased downstream application [4] - Prices of tungsten and praseodymium-neodymium oxide are also at high levels, indicating a continued structural tightness in resource supply [4] Group 3: Top Holdings in Rare Metal Index - As of August 29, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Rare Metal Theme Index include Northern Rare Earth, Luoyang Molybdenum, Salt Lake Industry, Huayou Cobalt, Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, China Rare Earth, Shenghe Resources, Zhongjin Resources, and Xiamen Tungsten, collectively accounting for 57.58% of the index [4]