Group 1 - Goldman Sachs reports significant improvement in lithium market fundamentals in recent months, expecting a tight supply-demand situation from the second half of 2025 to the first half of 2026, driven by strong domestic demand and exports, particularly from energy storage systems [1] - The firm downgraded Ganfeng Lithium (01772) from "Neutral" to "Sell," raising the target price for Hong Kong shares from HKD 28 to HKD 32, while maintaining "Sell" ratings for Ganfeng Lithium A-shares (002460.SZ) and Tianqi Lithium (09696, 002466.SZ), with Tianqi Lithium's target price increased from HKD 21.5 to HKD 24.5 [1] Group 2 - Current spot prices face downside risks due to negative feedback from downstream markets, slowing growth in energy storage system installations, and other factors affecting inventory replenishment, with a slow response from the supply side [2] - Goldman Sachs updated its lithium price forecasts, estimating an average price of USD 11,000 per ton of lithium carbonate in the first half of 2026, unchanged from previous predictions, while the second half of 2026 is expected to average USD 9,500, a 14% downward adjustment from previous forecasts, and USD 9,300 for 2027, down 15% [2] - The firm lowered its earnings forecasts for covered lithium stocks by 5% to 42% for 2026 to 2027 due to the adjustment in lithium price predictions, but raised target prices by 9% to 15% as the valuation year rolls to 2026, assuming a higher bottom valuation for the cycle [2] - It is estimated that most Chinese lithium stocks currently imply lithium carbonate prices in the range of USD 16,200 to USD 24,500 per ton for 2026 to 2027 [2]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,220, down 2.38% for the day and 5.09% for the week, but up 25.72% year-to-date[3] - The Hang Seng Technology Index fell 3.21% to 5,395, with a year-to-date increase of 20.76%[3] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index decreased by 2.45% to 8,920, with a year-to-date rise of 22.36%[3] - The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 2.45% to 3,835, with a year-to-date increase of 14.41%[3] Sector Performance - The lithium battery sector saw significant declines, with Ganfeng Lithium down over 12% and Tianqi Lithium down over 11%[9] - Semiconductor stocks also performed poorly, with Innolux down over 8% and SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor both down over 6%[9] - Xiaomi-related stocks rose against the trend, driven by the launch of Xiaomi's enhanced smart driving system[9] U.S. Market Insights - On November 21, U.S. markets saw all major indices rise, with the Dow Jones gaining approximately 1.1%[9] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December increased from under 40% to over 70% following dovish comments from New York Fed President Williams[9] - Notable movements in large tech stocks included Google up 3.53% and Nvidia down 0.96%[9] Japanese Market Trends - The Nikkei 225 index fell 2.4%, with a cumulative decline of 3.5% over the past week[13] - Japanese semiconductor stocks faced significant drops, with Tokyo Electron down 7.14% and Advantest down 12.10%[13] - The Japanese government announced a $135 billion economic stimulus plan, adding pressure to the yen and government bonds[13]

Group 1 - The A-share market lithium mining stocks experienced a collective decline for the third consecutive day, with several companies hitting the daily limit down [1] - Notable stocks such as Rongjie Co., Dawei Co., Guocheng Mining, and Shengxin Lithium fell to the daily limit, while Jinyuan Co. approached the limit down [1] - The price of lithium carbonate's main contract has seen a high-level correction, dropping over 2% during the day, marking the second consecutive day of decline [1] Group 2 - Stocks like Jiangte Electric, Tibet Summit, and Dazhong Mining fell over 8%, while Yahua Group dropped over 7% [1] - Ganfeng Lithium, Tianqi Lithium, Tibet Mining, and Chuaneng Power all saw declines exceeding 6%, with Hainan Mining down over 5% [1]

Summary of the Conference Call on the Chinese Lithium Sector Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **Chinese lithium sector**, highlighting the downside risks following a recent bull run in lithium prices and market dynamics [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Demand and Supply Dynamics** - The lithium market has shown improved fundamentals, with a tight supply-demand balance expected in **2H25-1H26** due to stronger demand from both domestic and export markets, particularly driven by the **Energy Storage Systems (ESS)** segment [1][2]. - A **12% deficit** in global lithium capacity is anticipated against demand in **2H25**, with a return to a **10% surplus** in **2H26** [2]. 2. **Price Forecasts** - The benchmark China spot lithium carbonate price is forecasted to average **US$11.0k/t-LCE** in **1H26**, **US$9.5k/t-LCE** in **2H26** (14% lower than previous forecasts), and **US$9.3k/t-LCE** in **2027** (15% lower than previous forecasts) [3]. - Current lithium prices are significantly above marginal costs, which may lead to increased production and a higher surplus by late **2026** [2]. 3. **Earnings Revisions** - Earnings estimates for lithium equities have been revised down by **5-42%** for **2026-27** due to changes in lithium price forecasts. Target prices for companies like **Ganfeng-H** have been adjusted upwards by **9-15%** [3]. - Ganfeng-H has been downgraded to a **Sell** rating, with target prices set at **HK$32.0** and **Rmb35.0**, indicating a **37% downside** potential [3][33]. 4. **Demand Drivers** - The **ESS** market has seen a **55% year-on-year increase** in production, with an annualized run-rate of **650GWh** in October 2025, leading to a **9% increase** in lithium demand compared to **1H25** [15]. - The **electric vehicle (EV)** sector in China is also growing, with a **32% year-on-year increase** in sales during the first ten months of 2025, contributing to a **16% increase** in lithium demand [16]. 5. **Risks and Upside Potential** - Risks include potential negative feedback from downstream markets, decelerating restocking rates, and the pace of supply response [1][2]. - Upside risks for Ganfeng-H include higher lithium product prices, faster project expansions, and lower raw material costs [34]. Additional Important Information - The current share prices of Ganfeng and Tianqi have factored in much higher lithium prices than the current spot levels, indicating potential overvaluation [3][35]. - The report emphasizes the sensitivity of supply to pricing outlooks, with many projects being flexible to restart based on lithium pricing [27]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the Chinese lithium sector, focusing on market dynamics, price forecasts, earnings revisions, demand drivers, and associated risks.

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate futures market experienced a significant decline after a period of continuous increase, with the main contract LC2601 dropping by over 9% on November 21, closing at 91,020 yuan/ton [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The main contract for lithium carbonate futures saw a substantial drop of 9% on November 21, following a strong upward trend that began on November 5, where it had cumulatively increased by 24.5% by November 20 [1]. - The A-share lithium battery concept sector also faced widespread declines, with leading lithium mining companies such as Shengxin Lithium Energy, Jinyuan Co., and Tianqi Lithium all hitting the daily limit down [1]. - Battery manufacturers also experienced declines, with companies like Desay Battery and XWANDA dropping over 6%, while EVE Energy fell nearly 6%, Guoxuan High-Tech dropped over 4%, and CATL fell over 2% [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The decline in lithium carbonate prices is attributed to market concerns regarding a potential narrowing of the supply-demand gap in December, following an announcement from the Guangzhou Futures Exchange regarding increased transaction fees and limits on daily opening positions for non-futures company members [2]. - The domestic inventory of lithium carbonate has been decreasing for 13 consecutive weeks, with a total reduction of 22,000 tons, leading to a new low in total inventory turnover days at 28.1 days since the futures listing [1].

Market Performance - The A-share market experienced a significant downturn, with the ChiNext Index dropping 6.15% last week and falling below the 3000-point mark on November 21, closing at 2920.08 points [1] - The Hang Seng Index also declined over 5% for the week, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell more than 7% [1] - Major Asian markets, including the Korean Composite Index and Nikkei 225, also saw declines of nearly 4% and over 3.48%, respectively [1] Sector Analysis - The technology and battery sectors, which had previously shown strong performance, underwent substantial corrections, with the electronics sector experiencing a weekly decline of 5.89% [2] - The lithium battery supply chain faced a sharp drop, with the lithium mining index falling by 9.67% on a single day, affecting multiple stocks such as Shengxin Lithium Energy and Ganfeng Lithium, which hit their daily limit down [2] - The computing power industry also saw a collective pullback, with significant declines in stocks like Xin Yi Sheng and Zhong Ji Xu Chuang [2] Long-term Outlook - Despite the short-term pressures, several brokerages indicated that the long-term slow bull trend in the A-share market remains intact [3] - Analysts suggest that the current market adjustment is a normal part of the bull market process, with expectations of a gradual recovery after the current phase of volatility [3][4] - The AI industry chain is expected to continue its long-term growth trend, although there may be short-term fluctuations [3] Valuation and Investor Sentiment - The ChiNext Index's price-to-earnings ratio has decreased to 37.72, indicating a moderate valuation level compared to historical highs, suggesting no significant overvaluation risk [7] - Despite short-term capital outflows, the continued net subscriptions of ChiNext ETFs reflect long-term investor confidence [7] - The current market adjustment is viewed as profit-taking and a reaction to market sentiment, with a focus on quality growth stocks supported by strong earnings [7]

本文自南都·湾财社。 采写 | 南都·湾财社记者 赵元 编辑 | 柴华 A股震荡调整持续，截至11月21日收盘，上证指数报3834.89，较上日下跌96.16，跌2.45%，深证成指报 12538.07，跌3.41%，创业板指报2920.08，跌4.02%。全市场超5000只个股下跌。三市全天成交额19836 亿元，较上日放量2610亿元。 业内分析 多空分歧加大，需阶段调整确认趋势 近期，大盘出现了反复震荡调整的走势，对此，前海开源基金首席经济学家杨德龙认为，临近年底，部 分投资者出于兑现全年收益的考虑，出现一定程度的获利了结行为，这在情理之中。因此，年底市场往 往呈现反复震荡的特征，但这并不意味着本轮结构性行情的结束。短期市场走势是无法预测的，但这轮 调整不会持续太久，因为场外还有很多资金等待这个调整来进行布局。 同时，杨德龙指出近期权益类基金销售明显回暖，出现了很多日光基，说明在牛市启动之后，市场的赚 钱效应逐步体现出来，已经开始吸引居民存款流入，越来越多投资者来股市找机会，特别是现在银行理 财、余额宝、银行定期存款利率都很低。日光基的出现并不意味着市场见顶的信号，只有出现一天销售 上百亿的基金，买基金 ...

11月21日，A股全天低开低走，三大指数集体下挫。截至收盘，沪指跌2.45%，深成指跌3.41%，创业板 指跌4.02%。 市场共354只个股上涨，33只个股涨停，5072只个股下跌，99只个股跌停。 来源：中国基金报 A股大跌 不多说了，今天来找找原因吧。 | 880005 张跌家数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 其中 涨停 | | | | 涨幅 > 7% | | 22 | | 涨幅 | 5-7% | 20 | | 张旭 | 3-5% | 49 | | 张帽 | 0-3% | 243 | | 跌幅 | 0-3% | 1413 | | 跌幅 | 3-5% | 2161 | | 跌幅 | 5-7% | 1047 | | 跌幅 | > 1% | 451 | | 其中 跌停 | | aa | | 上涨家数 | | 354 | | 下跌家数 | | 5072 | | 平盘停牌 总品种数 | | 27 | | | | 6453 | | 总成交额 | | 19835.99亿 | | 总成交量 | | 145111.6万 | | 张家增减 | | -2373 | | 张家增幅 | | -87.02 ...

Market Overview - The market experienced a significant decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 2.41%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 3.41%, and the ChiNext Index by 4.02% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.97 trillion, an increase of 257.5 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] Stock Performance - Over 5,000 stocks in the market fell, with nearly 100 stocks hitting the daily limit down [2] - The lithium battery industry saw a collective adjustment, with major companies like Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium hitting the limit down [2][4] - The organic silicon concept stocks also experienced rapid declines, with companies like Chenguang New Materials hitting the limit down [2] - The storage chip sector continued to weaken, with stocks such as Demingli and Shikong Technology hitting the limit down [2] Lithium Industry Insights - The lithium battery sector faced a significant downturn, with major players like Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium both hitting the limit down [3][4] - Since November, the futures contracts for lithium carbonate have been on the rise, but on November 21, the main contract hit the limit down [7] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange has made several adjustments to the trading and settlement parameters for lithium carbonate futures, including changes to transaction fees and daily opening limits [7] - Daiwa recently published a report expressing a conservative outlook on lithium prices for next year, predicting a range of 75,000 to 90,000 RMB per ton, indicating limited upward potential [8] Company Specifics - Two companies, Haixia Innovation and Pingtan Development, resumed trading after a suspension for stock price verification, but both stocks hit the limit down upon resumption [10][12] - Haixia Innovation reported a revenue of 92.06 million RMB for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.75%, but a net loss of 17.24 million RMB [12] - Pingtan Development reported a revenue of 1.03 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 13.04%, but a net profit of 31.23 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 38.39% [14] New Stock Performance - A new stock, Dapeng Industrial, saw a dramatic increase, with its price rising by over 1500% at one point, closing with a gain of 1211% and a total market capitalization of 7.253 billion RMB [16][17] - Dapeng Industrial specializes in precision cleaning equipment for the automotive and new energy sectors, aiming to meet the high-quality manufacturing needs of its clients [18]

Core Insights - The energy metals sector experienced a significant decline of 8.9% on November 21, with Hanrui Cobalt leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3834.89, down 2.45%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12538.07, down 3.41% [1] Sector Performance - Major stocks in the energy metals sector saw substantial losses, with several companies reporting a decline of 10% or more, including: - Sai Rui Aluminum: -10.98% [1] - Ganfeng Lithium: -10.00% [1] - Tibet Mining: -10.00% [1] - Yongshan Lithium: -10.00% [1] - Shengxin Lithium Energy: -10.00% [1] - Rongjie Co., Ltd.: -10.00% [1] - Tianqi Lithium: -10.00% [1] - Yongxing Materials: -9.99% [1] - Shengtun Mining: -9.14% [1] - Huayou Cobalt: -8.94% [1] Capital Flow - The energy metals sector saw a net outflow of 3.769 billion yuan from major funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 2.551 billion yuan [1] - Specific stock capital flows indicated: - Ganfeng Lithium: Major net outflow of 10.90 billion yuan [2] - Huayou Cobalt: Major net outflow of 9.51 billion yuan [2] - Tianqi Lithium: Major net outflow of 7.81 billion yuan [2] - Shengtun Mining: Major net outflow of 2.79 billion yuan [2] - Tibet Mining: Major net outflow of 1.71 billion yuan [2]