Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [10] Core Views - The company achieved stable performance in 2024, focusing on the development of nuts and sunflower seeds, with strong performance in overseas and direct sales channels. However, the profitability faced significant pressure in Q1 2025, awaiting recovery in subsequent periods [2][10] - The company reported a revenue of 71.31 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.79%, with a gross margin rising by 2.02 percentage points to 28.78% [10] - The report revises the EPS forecast for 2025 and 2026 to 1.25 yuan and 1.71 yuan respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 EPS at 1.93 yuan [10] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 was 68.06 billion yuan, with a projected increase to 71.31 billion yuan in 2024, and further growth expected in subsequent years [4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 803 million yuan, with a forecasted decline to 630 million yuan in 2025, followed by recovery to 975 million yuan in 2027 [4] - The company’s net asset return rate is projected to be 14.5% in 2023, increasing to 15.5% by 2027 [4] Market Data - The company's stock price has fluctuated between 23.89 yuan and 37.50 yuan over the past 52 weeks, with a total market capitalization of 12.085 billion yuan [5] - The report indicates a current price of 23.89 yuan, with a target price set at 28.13 yuan per share [10] Sales Performance - The company’s sales in the sunflower seed segment reached 4.38 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 2.60%, while the nut segment achieved 1.924 billion yuan, up 9.74% [10] - Direct sales channels showed a significant increase of 38.29% year-on-year, contributing 1.462 billion yuan to revenue [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Qiaqia Foods [2][6]. Core Views - Qiaqia Foods is expected to achieve a revenue of 7.13 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, with a net profit of 850 million yuan, up 5.8% year-on-year [3]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a decline in revenue to 1.57 billion yuan, down 13.8% year-on-year, and a significant drop in net profit to 77.24 million yuan, down 67.9% year-on-year, primarily due to intensified competition and the timing of the Spring Festival [3][4]. - The company’s main products, sunflower seeds and nuts, showed modest growth, with revenues of 4.38 billion yuan and 1.92 billion yuan respectively in 2024, reflecting year-on-year increases of 2.6% and 9.7% [4]. Revenue and Profitability - The revenue from distribution and other channels was 5.67 billion yuan, down 1.4% year-on-year, while direct sales (including bulk snacks, e-commerce, and key accounts) reached 1.46 billion yuan, up 38.3% year-on-year [4]. - The gross margin for 2024 and Q1 2025 was 28.8% and 19.5% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 2.0 percentage points for 2024 but a decrease of 11.0 percentage points for Q1 2025 [5]. - The net profit margin for 2024 and Q1 2025 was 11.9% and 4.9% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 0.1 percentage points for 2024 but a decrease of 8.3 percentage points for Q1 2025 [5]. Financial Forecast - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is 756 million yuan, 919 million yuan, and 990 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -10.97%, 21.50%, and 7.79% [6][7]. - Earnings per share (EPS) for the same period are projected to be 1.49 yuan, 1.81 yuan, and 1.95 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 16, 13, and 12 [6][7]. Company Overview - Qiaqia Foods Co., Ltd. primarily produces nut snacks and baked leisure foods, with key products including Qiaqia red bag melon seeds and various nut mixes [8]. - In 2023, the company was recognized as one of the "Top 500 Asian Brands" with a brand value of 46.868 billion yuan [8]. Market Position - The company has expanded its international market presence, exporting to nearly 70 countries and regions, and is actively developing the Southeast Asian market [4]. - The company’s sales in the Eastern region and e-commerce channels have shown higher growth rates compared to overall company performance, indicating a strong market position [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry [1] Core Insights - The food and beverage industry is gaining attention due to increased external uncertainties and positive domestic policy signals, with a focus on boosting domestic demand as a key driver for economic growth [12][16] - The liquor sector is expected to show a "front low, back high" performance trend for the year, with a focus on inventory digestion in the first half and gradual demand recovery in the second half [17][32] - The consumer goods sector, particularly those related to the catering supply chain and benefiting from fertility policy catalysts, is highlighted for potential investment opportunities [39] Summary by Sections 1. Policy Expectations and Industry Focus - Increased external uncertainties have led to a heightened focus on domestic demand as a crucial element for economic growth [12] - Recent government policies aimed at boosting consumption have positively influenced market confidence, with a comprehensive action plan to enhance consumer spending [13][16] 2. Liquor Sector - Liquor sales during the Spring Festival saw a year-on-year decline of approximately 10%, with a focus on inventory management during the off-peak season [17] - High-end liquor demand remains stable, while mid-range and regional brands are experiencing varied performance based on market conditions [19] - Major liquor companies are engaging in share buybacks and increasing shareholdings to bolster market confidence [24][30] 3. Consumer Goods Sector - The report emphasizes the importance of sectors related to the catering supply chain, with specific attention to the seasoning, beer, dairy, and snack segments [39] - The seasoning sector is expected to benefit from a recovery in restaurant consumption, while the beer sector is poised for growth due to the resurgence of dining scenarios [40] - Dairy demand is anticipated to rise following the introduction of fertility subsidies in various regions, which could positively impact dairy company performance [39]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Qiaqia Foods [2][6]. Core Views - Qiaqia Foods is expected to achieve a revenue of 7.13 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, with a net profit of 850 million yuan, up 5.8% year-on-year [3]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a decline in revenue to 1.57 billion yuan, down 13.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 77.24 million yuan, down 67.9% year-on-year, primarily due to intensified competition and the timing of the Spring Festival [3][4]. - The company’s main products, sunflower seeds and nuts, showed modest growth, with revenues of 4.38 billion yuan and 1.92 billion yuan respectively in 2024, reflecting year-on-year increases of 2.6% and 9.7% [4]. - The gross margin for 2024 is projected at 28.8%, with a significant drop to 19.5% in Q1 2025, influenced by rising raw material costs and competitive pressures in the nut market [5][6]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is 756 million yuan, 919 million yuan, and 990 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -10.97%, 21.50%, and 7.79% [6][7]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.49 yuan, 1.81 yuan, and 1.95 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6][7]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company’s revenue is projected to be 7.13 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 4.79% compared to the previous year [7]. - The net profit margin for 2024 is estimated at 11.9%, while for Q1 2025, it is expected to drop to 4.9% [5][6]. Market Position and Strategy - Qiaqia Foods has been expanding its international market presence, exporting to nearly 70 countries and regions, with a focus on Southeast Asia and entry into the Costco channel in Canada [4]. - The company is actively managing its sales and administrative expenses in response to the revenue pressures experienced in Q1 2025 [5].

原材料成本压力增大拖累毛利，盈利亟待修复。1、24年毛利率28.8%，同比+2.0pp；25Q1毛利率19.5%， 同比-11.0pp。25Q1毛利率下滑较多主要系原材料成本压力，受内蒙水灾影响葵花籽价格虽然Q1环比有所 下降但是依然高于去年同期，部分坚果原材料如巴旦木、腰果受关税影响价格上涨。2、24年销售费用率 10.0%，同比+0.9pp；25Q1销售费用率10.6%，同比-1.8pp。24年管理费用率4.3%，同比+0.1pp；25Q1管理 费用率4.6%，同比+0.9pp。规模效应虽有减弱，但费用率基本保持平稳。3、24年净利率11.9%，同比 +0.1pp；25Q1净利率4.9%，同比-8.3pp；由于费用管控得当，净利率下滑幅度小于毛利率。 经营节奏稳健，静待龙头穿越周期。渠道方面，公司拓展下沉市场专业经销商、探索核心城市联合业代模 式，瓜子业务与餐饮、零食专营等新兴渠道深度合作，坚果业务加大年节坚果团购及礼盒渠道终端开拓迎 合行业礼赠场景修复。成本方面，公司加码上游原料布局强化原料掌控，国葵种植面积进一步提升，新采 购季葵花籽原材料价格后续有望回落带来成本改善，坚果业务规模效应逐步凸显以及原材 ...

Core Viewpoint - Company reported a revenue increase in 2024 but faced significant declines in Q1 2025 due to various market pressures and competition [1][2][3] Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2024 reached 7.13 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 850 million yuan, up 5.8% year-on-year [1] - Q1 2025 revenue was 1.57 billion yuan, a decline of 13.8% year-on-year [1][2] - Q1 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders was 80 million yuan, down 67.9% year-on-year [1][2] - Q1 2025 non-recurring net profit was 60 million yuan, a decrease of 73.8% year-on-year [1][2] Product Performance - In 2024, revenue from sunflower seeds increased by 2.6%, with strong growth in key products [1] - Nut revenue grew by 9.7% in 2024, with gift boxes seeing double-digit growth [1] - The daily nut series experienced a slight decline in revenue [1] Cost and Profitability - The company saw a recovery in profitability in 2024, with gross margin and net margin increasing by 2.0 and 0.1 percentage points, respectively [1] - Sunflower seed gross margin improved to 29.7%, up 4.4 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Q1 2025 gross margin and net margin were 19.5% and 4.9%, down 11.0 and 8.3 percentage points year-on-year, respectively [2] Market Challenges - Q1 2025 revenue decline was attributed to the timing of the Spring Festival and high base effects from the previous year [2] - Increased competition in the nut market and a decline in traditional channel traffic contributed to the revenue drop [2] - Rising raw material costs, particularly for sunflower seeds and nuts, added significant pressure on profitability [2] Future Outlook - The company is adjusting its product and channel strategies amid rising costs and intense competition [3] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 7.46 billion, 7.80 billion, and 8.14 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.7%, 4.4%, and 4.5% respectively [3] - Net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 690 million, 870 million, and 980 million yuan, reflecting a decline in 2025 followed by growth in subsequent years [3]

Core Viewpoint - Qiaqia Food reported a dual growth in revenue and net profit for 2024, but experienced a decline in both metrics in the first quarter of 2025 due to seasonal effects and rising raw material costs [2][5]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 7.131 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.79%, and a net profit of 849 million yuan, up 5.82% [3][4]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 1.571 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.76%, and a net profit of 77 million yuan, down 67.88% [5][6]. Product Contribution - Sunflower seeds contributed over 61.45% of the total revenue, generating 4.382 billion yuan, with a growth of 2.60% and a gross margin of 29.68% [4]. - Nut revenue was 1.924 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.74%, accounting for 26.97% of total revenue, but with a gross margin of 27.18%, down 4.38% [4]. Dealer Network - As of the end of the reporting period, the company had 1,380 dealers, with 1,272 in China and 108 overseas, a decrease of 99 dealers compared to the end of 2023 [4]. R&D Investment - The company increased its R&D expenditure by 17.15% to 75.684 million yuan, focusing on technological innovation across various production stages [4]. Non-Recurring Gains - In 2023, non-recurring gains amounted to 76.813 million yuan, accounting for 9.04% of net profit, with government subsidies making up 75.604 million yuan, or 8.90% of net profit [4].

Core Viewpoint - Qiaqia Food reported a year-on-year increase in both revenue and net profit for 2024, but the stock price declined due to low growth rates and market concerns [2][3][11]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Qiaqia Food achieved a revenue of approximately 71.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.79%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of about 8.49 billion yuan, up 5.82% [4][10]. - The company's revenue from sunflower products was about 43.82 billion yuan, accounting for 61.45% of total revenue, while nut products generated approximately 19.24 billion yuan, making up 26.97% of total revenue [5][19]. Profitability - The gross margin for nut products in 2024 was 27.18%, down 4.38% year-on-year, while the gross margin for sunflower products was 29.68%, up 4.45% [6][12]. Strategic Initiatives - Qiaqia Food is focusing on developing a third growth curve by exploring new snack categories such as crispy potato chips and nut milk through a "horse racing" strategy, which emphasizes market performance and potential [7][8]. - The company aims to enhance its channel coverage and expand into new markets, including overseas, to support revenue growth [11][12]. Sales Channels - The company has established a global marketing network primarily through distributors, with 1,380 distributors as of the end of 2024, including 1,272 in China and 108 overseas [16]. - Qiaqia Food's sales through the snack wholesale channel reached approximately 4.5 billion yuan in 2024, with plans to increase SKU offerings in this channel [14][20]. Cost Management - Sales expenses for Qiaqia Food rose to about 7.12 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 15.55%, marking the highest sales expenses since its listing [20][21]. - The company plans to manage expenses while continuing to invest in brand promotion and marketing efforts [22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 30 yuan [2][7][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 7.13 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 849 million yuan, up 5.8% year-on-year. However, Q4 2024 showed a decline in net profit by 24.8% year-on-year [2][8]. - The company has a high dividend payout ratio of 76.12%, distributing a total of 649 million yuan in cash dividends [2][8]. - Despite facing operational adjustments and external pressures, the company is expected to achieve steady revenue growth throughout the year, although profit pressures may persist in the short term [2][7]. Financial Summary - **2024 Financials**: Total revenue of 7.13 billion yuan, net profit of 849 million yuan, and earnings per share (EPS) of 1.68 yuan [8]. - **2025 Projections**: Expected revenue of 7.43 billion yuan, net profit of 702 million yuan, and EPS of 1.39 yuan, reflecting a decrease in profit due to market conditions [8]. - **2026-2027 Projections**: Revenue is projected to grow to 7.85 billion yuan in 2026 and 8.27 billion yuan in 2027, with net profits expected to recover to 855 million yuan and 982 million yuan respectively [8]. Market Performance - The company's stock price as of April 25, 2025, is 23.99 yuan, with a 12-month high of 37.50 yuan and a low of 23.99 yuan [4][8]. - The company has a total market capitalization of 12.135 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 12.110 billion yuan [4][8]. Operational Insights - The company is focusing on enhancing product quality to maintain brand strength amidst increasing competition and market pressures. This includes improving the quality of raw materials and increasing the proportion of high-quality products [2][7]. - The company is also adapting to market demands by implementing promotional strategies while maintaining product quality [2][7].

商业世界的故事、逻辑、认知。由"和讯商业"团队出品。 以下文章来源于和讯商业 ，作者孟圆 和讯商业 . 螳螂捕蝉，黄雀在后，零食行业的后来者不只一位，量贩渠道的力量正在不断渗透。 随着市场竞争 加剧，行业逻辑也正在被改写。 截至4月24日收盘，洽洽食品（002557.SZ）报价23.99元，日跌7.37%，盘中一度逼近跌停，已触 及近三年最低水平。这主要是受一季度业绩超预期下滑影响。 面对近期股价接连下跌，洽洽食品此前在投资者互动平台表示，公司正在实施回购股份计划。 2024年，洽洽食品还算交出一份稳定的答卷，营收净利润双增长，业绩稍有回暖，但同时公布的 2025年一季报却再遭滑铁卢，营收下降超13%，净利润下滑近七成。另一端，竞争对手三只松鼠 （300783.SZ）则高歌猛进，以106.22亿元的营收和49.3%的增速，重回百亿营收高位。 从年报来看，三只松鼠显得从容许多。 2024年，三只松鼠结束营收连续四年的下滑状态，以106.22 亿元的营收创历史新高，同比增速达49.3% ；实现归母净利润 4.08 亿元，增长85.51%；归母扣非 净利润3.19亿元，同比大增214.3%，其增长动力主要来自抖音等 ...