Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.08 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 1.9%, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 210 million yuan, down 38.2% year-on-year [1] - The decline in revenue is attributed to weaker performance in the franchise business compared to direct sales, influenced by an earlier Chinese New Year affecting wholesale business [2] - Increased expenditure on marketing and store openings has temporarily pressured profit margins, but this strategy is expected to support long-term growth [3] - The company anticipates revenue growth from 2025 to 2027, with projected revenues of 14.89 billion yuan, 15.75 billion yuan, and 16.55 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 1.8%, 5.8%, and 5.1% [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the gross margin was 47.0%, with an increase in sales expense ratio to 28.6% due to heightened advertising during the Spring Festival [3] - The company experienced a significant increase in inventory, up 29.4% year-on-year to 3.35 billion yuan, leading to a decrease in operating cash flow by 81.7% to 150 million yuan [3] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 1.10 billion yuan, 1.20 billion yuan, and 1.31 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of -3.0%, +9.0%, and +8.6% [4] - The company maintains a strong brand presence with its main brands, Balabala and Semir, and is expected to benefit from ongoing store expansions and organizational changes [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6]. Core Views - The implementation of the parenting subsidy policy is expected to benefit the children's clothing business, as 23 provinces in China have begun exploring various forms of birth subsidies [2]. - The company aims to enhance its retail transformation and supply chain capabilities by focusing on consumer insights, efficient product operations, and precise product development [3]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting revenues of 15.3 billion, 16 billion, and 17 billion respectively, with net profits of 1.1 billion, 1.2 billion, and 1.3 billion [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 3.1 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2%, and a net profit of 200 million, down 38% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin remained stable at 47%, while the net profit margin decreased by 4 percentage points to 7% [1]. - The sales expense ratio increased by 4 percentage points to 29%, and the management expense ratio rose by 1 percentage point to 5% [1]. Financial Forecast Summary - The company expects revenues for 2025 to be 15.25 billion, with a growth rate of 4.3% [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.41, 0.45, and 0.49 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is forecasted to be 14x, 13x, and 11x for the next three years [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6]. Core Views - The implementation of a parenting subsidy system is expected to benefit the children's clothing business, as 23 provinces in China are exploring various forms of birth subsidies [2]. - The company aims to enhance its retail transformation and supply chain capabilities, focusing on consumer insights, efficient product operations, and precise product development [3]. - The financial forecast has been adjusted, with expected revenues for 2025-2027 projected at 153 billion, 160 billion, and 170 billion respectively, and net profits at 11 billion, 12 billion, and 13 billion [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 31 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2%, and a net profit of 2 billion, down 38% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin remained stable at 47%, while the net profit margin decreased by 4 percentage points to 7% [1]. - The sales expense ratio increased by 4 percentage points to 29%, and the management expense ratio rose by 1 percentage point to 5% [1]. Financial Data and Valuation - The projected revenue growth rates for 2023 to 2027 are 2.47%, 7.06%, 4.30%, 5.10%, and 6.00% respectively [5]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 0.41, 0.45, and 0.49 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 14x, 13x, and 11x [4][5]. - The company's total market capitalization is approximately 15.14 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of about 12.37 billion yuan [6].

纺织服饰/服装家纺 森马服饰（002563.SZ） 2025Q1 终端零售稳步增长，短期费用扰动利润增速 2025 年 05 月 01 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/4/30 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 5.62 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 7.48/4.34 | | 总市值(亿元) | 151.41 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 123.74 | | 总股本(亿股) | 26.94 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 22.02 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 44.5 | 信 息 更 新 报 告 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -40% -20% 0% 20% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 森马服饰 沪深300 相关研究报告 《2024 年分红比例提升，库存结构 改善奠定增长基础—公司信息更新 报告》-2025.4.2 《2022 年业绩承压，期待轻装上阵 &开店下业绩修复—公司信息更新 报告》-2023.4.6 ——公司信息更新报告 请务必参阅正文后面的信息披露和法律声明 1 / 4 | 吕明（分析师） 周嘉乐（分析师） 张霜凝（分析师 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company experienced a slight decline in revenue in Q1 2025, with a total revenue of 3.08 billion yuan, down 1.9% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 38.1% to 210 million yuan, primarily due to increased sales and marketing expenses [5][6] - Despite short-term profit pressure, the company is expected to recover performance through store quality improvements and channel optimization, maintaining profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [5][6] - The company’s gross margin slightly increased to 47.0%, while the net profit margin decreased to 7.0% due to higher sales expenses [7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 15.41 billion yuan, 16.21 billion yuan, and 17.04 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.4%, 5.2%, and 5.1% [8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 1.21 billion yuan in 2025, 1.30 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.41 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.45 yuan, 0.48 yuan, and 0.52 yuan [8][10] - The company’s P/E ratios are projected to be 12.6, 11.7, and 10.7 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [8][10] Operational Insights - As of Q1 2025, the company had a total of 8,268 stores, with a net decrease of 57 stores since the beginning of the year. Despite this, terminal retail maintained steady growth, indicating effective channel optimization strategies [6] - The inventory structure has improved, with a significant increase in the proportion of new products within one year of inventory age [7]

Core Insights - Semir has opened its first store in Malaysia at 1 UTAMA Shopping Centre in December 2024, followed by a second store in Sunway Pyramid Mall and the first overseas store for its children's brand Balabala in Pavilion Kuala Lumpur [1][3] Group 1: International Expansion Strategy - The opening of three stores marks a small step in Semir's nearly decade-long overseas market expansion, reflecting the trend of domestic apparel brands going global [3][4] - Semir aims to leverage its domestic supply chain and industry understanding to explore new growth paths in overseas markets, focusing on Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and breaking into Europe and the U.S. [3][4] - As of the end of 2024, Semir and Balabala have entered 15 countries and regions, with over 100 stores outside mainland China, including 30 new stores opened in 2024 [4] Group 2: Focus on Southeast Asia and the Middle East - Southeast Asia is a primary target for Chinese apparel brands due to cultural similarities, making it easier for products to penetrate the market [5] - Semir has successfully established itself in Vietnam, with Balabala operating 9 stores and plans to upgrade its management structure in the region for better market penetration [5] - The Middle East is also a key market for Semir, with a focus on partnerships with local agents to tap into the high demand for children's products [6] Group 3: Multi-Channel Strategy - Semir employs a dual-channel strategy of direct sales and partnerships with agents to optimize market entry and resource acquisition [7][8] - The company has achieved significant online growth, covering over 130 countries with online revenue increasing by over 80% year-on-year [7] - Physical stores are essential for building brand recognition and consumer relationships, with a focus on high-end positioning in Southeast Asia [8] Group 4: Adapting to Local Markets - Semir emphasizes the importance of understanding local market trends and consumer preferences to tailor its offerings [10][11] - The company has established a dedicated team for market research and product planning to ensure alignment with local cultural nuances [10][11] - In the Middle East, Semir adapts its marketing strategies to align with local customs and traditions, such as creating special product lines for Ramadan [11][13] Group 5: Long-term Goals - Semir aims for global brand recognition and market scale, aspiring to transition from a domestic brand to a global player in the fashion industry [14]

Group 1: Company Overview - Semir Fashion was established in 2002, focusing on casual and children's clothing, with major brands including Semir for adults and Balabala for children [8] - Semir brand, founded in 1996, emphasizes comfort and quality, while Balabala, established in 2002, targets children aged 0-14, positioning itself for middle-income families [8] - Semir has become a leading domestic casual wear brand, while Balabala holds a dominant market share in children's clothing [8] Group 2: Financial Performance - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of CNY 3.08 billion, a decrease of 1.93% from CNY 3.14 billion in the same period last year [9] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 214.37 million, down 38.12% from CNY 346.44 million year-on-year [9] - The net cash flow from operating activities fell by 81.71% to CNY 152.53 million, primarily due to increased payments for goods [10] Group 3: Inventory and Assets - As of March 31, 2025, inventory stood at CNY 3.35 billion, a decrease of CNY 134 million from the beginning of the period, but an increase of CNY 760 million compared to the same time last year [10] - The proportion of inventory items with a one-year turnover increased from 55% to 72%, indicating improved inventory health [10] - Monetary assets remained stable at CNY 8.65 billion, ensuring sufficient liquidity for ongoing operations [10] Group 4: Profitability and Expenses - The gross profit margin for the period was 47%, slightly up by 0.37 percentage points compared to the previous year [10] - Sales expenses increased by CNY 111 million, primarily due to higher advertising and service costs [11] - Management expenses rose by CNY 20 million, while financial expenses decreased by CNY 39 million [10] Group 5: Store Operations - During the reporting period, the company opened 172 stores and closed 229, resulting in a total of 8,268 stores as of March 31, 2025 [11] - The breakdown includes 2,779 adult clothing stores and 5,489 children's clothing stores, with 960 direct-operated, 74 joint-operated, and 7,234 franchised stores [11] Group 6: Retail Performance - In Q1, overall retail sales, both online and offline, showed single-digit growth year-on-year [12] - Sales continued to improve in April, maintaining a mid-to-high single-digit growth rate across the entire retail system [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an expected PE of 14 times for 2025 [4][6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.08 billion yuan and a net profit of 210 million yuan for Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 2% and 38% respectively [1]. - The retail channel is expected to show steady growth, with a cautious accounting approach leading to better performance in retail sales compared to revenue [2]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its store structure, with a net increase of 299 direct stores and 96 franchise stores expected in 2024 [2]. - The children's clothing segment is anticipated to grow healthily, while the adult casual wear segment is expected to decline due to industry conditions [3]. - Inventory levels increased by 29.4% year-on-year to 3.35 billion yuan, with a healthy inventory turnover structure [4]. Financial Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve revenues of 15.77 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.8% [5]. - The net profit for 2025 is estimated at 1.23 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.5% year-on-year increase [5]. - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 0.46 yuan per share for 2025 [5]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 10.2% in 2025, increasing to 12.2% by 2027 [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" with a target price of RMB 7.50 [7][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 14.63 billion for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%, and a net profit of RMB 1.14 billion, up 1.4% year-on-year, exceeding previous expectations due to effective channel adjustments [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company experienced a revenue of RMB 3.08 billion, a decrease of 1.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 210 million, down 38.1% year-on-year. The long-term value is expected to improve after the short-term performance pressure is released [1][2]. - The company is focusing on channel optimization and enhancing store efficiency, which is expected to lay a solid foundation for medium to long-term development [1][2]. Revenue and Profitability - Online revenue for 2024 was RMB 6.67 billion, growing 7.24% year-on-year, while offline revenue from direct sales and franchises was RMB 1.55 billion (up 12.6%) and RMB 6.07 billion (up 5.1%), respectively [2]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 43.8%, primarily due to increased sales and financial expense ratios from channel layout adjustments [3]. - The net profit margin for Q1 2025 decreased by 4.9 percentage points to 6.9% [3]. Inventory and Operational Efficiency - By the end of 2024, the company's inventory was RMB 3.481 billion, an increase of 26.8% year-on-year, with inventory turnover days rising to 188 days in Q1 2025, an increase of 45 days year-on-year [4]. - Accounts receivable turnover days increased to 41 days in Q1 2025, indicating a slight short-term pressure on operational efficiency [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are RMB 1.29 billion and RMB 1.48 billion, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at RMB 1.74 billion [5]. - The company is assigned a PE ratio of 15.7 for 2025, with a target price of RMB 7.50, reflecting its position as a leading brand in children's and leisure apparel despite short-term operational pressures [5].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for Q1 2025, indicating pressure on performance and a significant drop in net profit margin compared to the previous year [1][2]. Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 3.079 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.93% - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 214 million yuan, down 38.12% year-on-year - Basic earnings per share were 0.08 yuan [1] - Gross margin and net margin for Q1 2025 were 47.00% and 6.92%, respectively, with changes of +0.37 and -4.08 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The selling and administrative expense ratio increased to 34.16%, up 5.90 percentage points year-on-year, contributing to the decline in net margin [2] - Inventory turnover days increased to 188.32 days, up 45.08 days year-on-year [2] - Net cash flow from operating activities was 153 million yuan, a decrease of 81.71% year-on-year [2] Business Strategy - The company is focusing on upgrading domestic channels and enhancing overseas business models, with significant progress in store openings and renovations for its core brands, Semir and Balabala [2][3] - In 2024, over 500 new Semir image stores and Balabala store renovations were completed [2] - The company is implementing a multi-channel strategy for overseas markets, including direct sales, e-commerce, and partnerships with agents, successfully entering 15 countries and regions by the end of 2024 [3] Future Outlook - The company aims to continue improving retail capabilities and product circulation efficiency while expanding its overseas business footprint [4] - EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 0.46, 0.51, and 0.57 yuan, with a 2025 PE valuation of 13.72 times, which is below the average of comparable companies [4]