Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant role of Muyuan Foods in the global pork market, claiming that it is a leading player, with a substantial portion of the world's pork supply coming from the company, although the claim of "one in ten pigs" is slightly exaggerated [2][3]. Company Performance - Muyuan Foods is projected to have a pig output of 66 million to 72 million heads in 2024, accounting for approximately 4.8% of the global pork supply [2]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, Muyuan Foods reported revenue of 111.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.52%, and a net profit of 14.779 billion yuan, up 41.01% [3]. - The company experienced a remarkable performance in the first half of 2025, with revenue of 76.46 billion yuan, a 34.46% increase, and net profit soaring to 10.53 billion yuan, a staggering 1170% increase compared to the same period last year [3]. Market Position - Despite a less favorable third quarter in 2025, where revenue fell by 11.48% to 35.327 billion yuan and net profit dropped by 55.98% to 4.249 billion yuan, Muyuan Foods' stock price increased by 40% from the beginning of 2025 to November 10, 2025, with a market capitalization of 282.3 billion yuan [4]. - Among A-share listed companies, only 77 are expected to achieve over 10 billion yuan in revenue and 1 billion yuan in net profit in 2024, with Muyuan Foods being one of the standout companies in this group [4]. Industry Insights - The article discusses the profitability of pig farming compared to technology companies, indicating a growing interest in the sector [5]. - Muyuan Foods has established itself as a leader in the industry, with a focus on technological innovation and cost control, achieving the lowest production costs among major competitors at 5.8 yuan per kilogram [13][15]. - The company has integrated the entire pork production chain, from feed processing to breeding and slaughtering, enhancing efficiency and reducing costs [9][10]. Challenges and Future Outlook - The pork market is influenced by supply and demand dynamics, with commodity prices affecting profitability. In October 2025, the price of commodity pigs fell below 12 yuan per kilogram, impacting the overall performance of the industry [11][16]. - Despite the challenges, Muyuan Foods has maintained profitability due to its effective cost control measures, even as other companies in the sector face significant losses [11][13]. - The company is positioned to continue leading the market, but it must navigate the cyclical nature of the industry and potential price declines [16].

Core Viewpoints - The pig farming sector is experiencing a favorable configuration opportunity due to accelerated breeding stock reduction driven by market and policy resonance, with current prices at a relatively low level [18][43]. - The beef industry is in a cyclical uptrend, with demand increasing and supply constraints expected to continue until 2027, making it a favorable time to invest in beef-related companies [18][51]. - The poultry sector is seeing improved investment logic as it enters a demand peak season, despite challenges from disease outbreaks and production capacity reductions [19][4]. Pig Farming - The supply pressure in pig farming is gradually increasing, leading to continued downward pressure on prices, with the national average price at 11.87 yuan/kg as of November 11, 2025, down 4.85 yuan/kg year-on-year [20][23]. - Policy measures are focused on reducing breeding stock, particularly among large enterprises, while smaller farms are expected to reduce stock due to losses and disease impacts [29][41]. - The current market conditions suggest a significant opportunity for investment in the pig farming sector, with recommended companies including Wens Foodstuffs, Muyuan Foods, and Juxing Agriculture [18][43]. Beef Industry - The beef supply is tightening, with a decrease in stock levels and an expected cyclical uptrend in demand, particularly as domestic beef consumption continues to rise [46][51]. - The average beef price in September 2025 was 70.52 yuan/kg, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.36% [51]. - Recommended companies in the beef sector include Bright Dairy, Fucheng Co., and several Hong Kong-listed firms such as Modern Farming and China Shengmu [18][51]. Poultry Sector - The white chicken market is entering a peak demand season, with prices expected to rise due to reduced production capacity and increased demand [19][4]. - The supply of white feather chicken breeding stock is projected to decline, supporting a price increase for meat chickens in 2026 [19][4]. - Recommended companies in the poultry sector include Shennong Development and Hefeng Co. [19][4]. Seed Industry - The grain price cycle is at a low point, with expectations for upward trends supported by food security policies and the acceleration of genetically modified seed commercialization [19][5]. - Recommended companies in the seed industry include Dabeinong Technology, Longping High-Tech, and Denghai Seeds [19][5]. Pet Industry - The pet food export volume in China increased by 7.55% year-on-year from January to September 2025, indicating strong growth in the sector [19][7]. - Domestic pet consumption is expected to continue growing, driven by emotional value and increasing market share of domestic brands [19][7]. - Recommended companies in the pet sector include Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., and Petty Co. [19][7].

Core Insights - The report from Kaiyuan Securities indicates a significant decline in the average selling price of live pigs in October 2025, with a decrease of 10.74% month-on-month and 33.56% year-on-year, suggesting ongoing pressure on pig prices in the near future [1] - The slaughter volume in October 2025 was 5.0352 million heads, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 10.40% and a year-on-year increase of 9.55%, indicating a temporary oversupply situation [1] - The report highlights that the proportion of large pigs being sold is lower than in the same period in 2024, while the inventory of large pigs is increasing, suggesting a potential easing of supply in the future [1] Industry Overview - The gross white price difference as of November 6, 2025, was 4.18 yuan/kg, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.08 yuan/kg but a year-on-year decrease of 0.84 yuan/kg, indicating mixed market conditions [2] - The national frozen product inventory rate was reported at 20.03%, up 4.06 percentage points year-on-year, which may exert downward pressure on future pig prices due to high inventory levels [2] - In October 2025, the industry faced significant losses, with self-breeding and self-raising operations losing 167.97 yuan per head, reflecting a worsening financial situation for producers [3] - The breeding stock decreased by 0.77% month-on-month as of November 7, 2025, indicating a trend of reduction in breeding capacity [3] Company Performance - In October 2025, 12 listed pig companies reported a total of 16.9469 million heads sold, a year-on-year increase of 29.29%, with individual companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs showing significant increases in their sales volumes [4] - The average selling price for major listed pig companies fell month-on-month, with prices for companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs decreasing by 10.3% and 12.2% respectively [5] - The average weight of pigs sold by major companies also saw a decline, with Dabeinong reporting an average weight of 110.1 kg per head, down 18.8 kg from the previous month [4]

Core Viewpoint - The support from the central government for the private economy is clear and firm, boosting confidence and motivation for development in the industry [1]. Group 1: Company Development - The company, founded in 1992, has grown from 22 piglets to the world's largest pig farming enterprise, with an annual output of 70 million pigs [1]. - The company emphasizes the integration of private enterprise development with national needs, particularly in supporting food security strategies [1]. - The company has adopted innovative breeding techniques, reducing reliance on imported breeding stock and enhancing production efficiency [1]. Group 2: Technological Innovations - The company has implemented smart pig houses with advanced air filtration systems to improve health and reduce environmental impact [2]. - A digital farming model has been established, allowing for the recycling of waste into organic fertilizers and biogas, promoting sustainable agriculture [2]. - The company has developed a team of 300 agronomists to facilitate resource utilization across various crops, enhancing soil fertility and agricultural productivity [2]. Group 3: Industry Collaboration - The company is working to professionalize pig farming by providing affordable piglets and comprehensive support to small farmers, fostering a collaborative industry environment [3]. - The implementation of the Private Economy Promotion Law is seen as a positive step for creating a better business environment, encouraging legal and responsible business practices [3].

Core Viewpoint - The support from the central government for the private economy is clear and firm, boosting confidence and motivation for entrepreneurship in the industry [2] Group 1: Company Development - The company, founded in 1992, has grown from 22 piglets to the world's largest pig farming enterprise, with an annual output of 70 million pigs [2] - The company emphasizes aligning its development with national needs, particularly in supporting the country's food security strategy by promoting grain-saving actions in livestock farming [2] - The company has adopted innovative breeding techniques, reducing reliance on imported breeding stock and achieving cost reduction and efficiency improvement [2] Group 2: Technological Innovations - The company has implemented advanced air filtration systems in pig farms, which not only prevent diseases but also address environmental concerns related to odor [3] - A digital farming model has been established, where waste from pig farming is converted into organic fertilizer and biogas, promoting a circular economy [3] Group 3: Industry Collaboration - The company is working to professionalize pig farming by providing breeding stock, feed, and technical support to small farmers, thus creating a shared prosperity model [4][5] - The company plans to supply 10 million discounted piglets to support 6,300 farming households this year [5] Group 4: Legal and Regulatory Environment - The implementation of the Private Economy Promotion Law is seen as a positive step towards creating a better business environment, with the company committed to legal and responsible operations as it grows [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The industry is experiencing increasing supply pressure of live pigs as the year-end approaches, with low prices continuing to decline. In October 2025, the national average selling price of live pigs was 11.69 yuan/kg, down 10.74% month-on-month and 33.56% year-on-year. The slaughter volume in October was 5.0352 million heads, up 10.40% month-on-month and 9.55% year-on-year. The actual output in October exceeded the planned output by 5.70%, but the planned output for November is expected to decrease by 3.27% compared to October [3][14][24] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The supply pressure of live pigs is gradually accumulating as the year-end approaches, with low prices continuing to decline. The average selling price in October 2025 was 11.69 yuan/kg, reflecting a significant decrease [3][14] - The slaughter volume in October was 5.0352 million heads, indicating a month-on-month increase of 10.40% and a year-on-year increase of 9.55% [3][14] Market Dynamics - The proportion of large pigs (over 150kg) in the slaughter structure was 4.89%, which is lower than the same period in 2024. The stock of large pigs is expected to increase, leading to a more relaxed supply in the future [4][18] - The winter pork consumption is expected to improve, which may drive the price difference between lean and fatty pork. However, the high inventory rate of frozen products may suppress future prices [4][19][23] Financial Performance - In October, the industry faced deepening losses, with self-breeding losses reaching 167.97 yuan per head. The breeding stock decreased by 0.77% month-on-month [5][24] - The average selling price of major listed pig companies decreased month-on-month, with prices ranging from 10.97 to 11.87 yuan/kg, reflecting declines of 9.9% to 13.9% [6][7][34]

Core Insights - The pig farming industry is facing significant challenges as many companies are experiencing losses despite increased output during the traditional peak season for pig sales [1][2][3] - The average selling prices of pigs have dropped to their lowest levels of the year, leading to a situation where companies are selling pigs at a loss [3][5] - Companies with lower breeding costs are better positioned to withstand price declines, while those with higher costs are under severe financial pressure [5][6] Industry Performance - In October, major pig farming companies reported substantial increases in the number of pigs sold, with Muyuan Foods selling 7.076 million pigs (up 13.17% year-on-year) and Wens Foodstuffs selling 3.8928 million pigs (up 45.69% year-on-year) [2][3] - Despite the increase in sales volume, the average selling prices for major companies like Muyuan and Wens fell by approximately 32.73% and 34.41% year-on-year, respectively [3][4] Cost Dynamics - The cost of pig farming varies significantly among companies, with leading firms like Muyuan and Wens reporting costs below 12.5 yuan/kg, while others like Huazhong and Jinxinnong have costs exceeding 13.5 yuan/kg [5][6] - The industry is currently experiencing an overall loss, with average breeding costs maintained between 12.5 and 13 yuan/kg, and losses per pig reaching 161.69 yuan for self-breeding and 283.92 yuan for piglets [5][6] Future Outlook - The demand for pork is expected to increase as the southern regions begin their seasonal consumption, which may provide some support for prices in the coming months [4] - However, the overall price trend is expected to remain weak due to the cyclical nature of the pig market [4]

Market Overview - The livestock sector declined by 0.45% on November 11, with Muyuan Foods leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4002.76, down 0.39%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13289.0, down 1.03% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the livestock sector included: - Fucheng Co., Ltd. (600965) with a closing price of 5.86, up 7.92% on a trading volume of 443,600 shares [1] - Zhengbang Technology (002157) closed at 3.13, up 2.62% with a trading volume of 1,801,200 shares [1] - Yike Foods (301116) closed at 11.66, up 2.10% with a trading volume of 72,400 shares [1] - Major decliners included: - Muyuan Foods (002714) closed at 50.58, down 2.11% with a trading volume of 373,400 shares [2] - Luoniushan (000735) closed at 8.26, down 1.90% with a trading volume of 668,700 shares [2] Capital Flow - The livestock sector experienced a net outflow of 496 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 184 million yuan [2] - Key stocks with significant capital flow included: - Zhengbang Technology had a net inflow of 85.26 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 53.12 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Fucheng Co., Ltd. saw a net inflow of 26.91 million yuan from institutional investors, with a net outflow from retail investors [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "positive" outlook on the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors, with specific attention to the potential for value reassessment in leading pig farming companies [2][3]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector's net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 increased by 11% year-on-year, with five sub-sectors showing profit growth, including animal health (+96%) and agricultural processing (+50%) [11][12]. - The pig farming industry is experiencing significant challenges, with a notable decline in pig prices leading to widespread losses among companies, although some are still managing to maintain profitability due to cost advantages [3][19]. - The pet food sector continues to show strong domestic sales growth, while exports are negatively impacted by increased tariffs, highlighting a divergence in performance between domestic and international markets [3][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Agricultural Sector Overview - The agricultural sector's net profit for Q1-Q3 2025 reached CNY 369.4 billion, reflecting an 11% increase year-on-year, with most sub-sectors reporting profit growth [11][12]. - In Q3 2025, the sector's net profit dropped by 58% year-on-year, with significant declines in the feed and breeding industries [13][14]. 2. Key Sub-Sectors Performance 2.1 Pig Farming - The pig farming sector saw a 30% increase in the number of pigs slaughtered in the first three quarters of 2025, but Q3 prices fell sharply, leading to a 68.4% drop in net profit for the quarter [21][16]. - The average profit per pig for self-breeding operations was approximately CNY 60 per head, but this dropped to CNY 43 in Q3, indicating a significant decline in profitability [32][33]. 2.2 Chicken Farming - The white feather chicken segment is facing price declines, but downstream companies are seeing profit recovery due to improved cost structures [53][59]. - The yellow feather chicken segment is experiencing a significant downturn, with profits down by 75.2% year-on-year for the two listed companies in this category [3][59]. 2.3 Pet Food - The domestic pet food market remains robust, with a 17.7% increase in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, while exports to the U.S. fell by 25.6% due to tariffs [3][6]. - Leading domestic brands are gaining market share, with significant growth in online sales [5][6]. 2.4 Animal Health - The animal health sector reported a 70.2% increase in net profit, driven by high livestock inventory levels and the introduction of new products [4][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry for the third quarter of 2025 [2] Core Insights - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector's net profit increased by 11% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with five sub-industries showing profit growth [16][17] - The overall performance of the sector declined in Q3 2025, with a 58% year-on-year drop in net profit, primarily due to significant losses in the breeding industry [18][19] - The pig farming sector faced a downturn with falling prices and a return to industry-wide losses, while the poultry sector showed mixed results with white feathered chickens stabilizing and yellow feathered chickens experiencing a significant decline [22][58] - The pet food segment continues to thrive domestically, although exports have been negatively impacted by increased tariffs [22][58] - The animal health sector benefited from high livestock inventory levels, leading to substantial revenue growth for companies in this space [22][58] Summary by Sections 1. Overview of Agricultural, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Sector - The sector's net profit for Q1-Q3 2025 reached 369.4 billion, marking an 11% increase year-on-year [16] - In Q3 2025, the sector's net profit was 95.9 billion, reflecting a 58% decrease year-on-year and a 27% decrease quarter-on-quarter [18] 2. Key Sub-Industry Performance 2.1 Pig Farming - The pig farming sector's revenue for Q1-Q3 2025 was 3036.4 billion, with a 9.9% year-on-year increase, but Q3 saw a significant profit drop of 68.4% [22] - The average profit per head for self-bred pigs was approximately 60 yuan, with significant variations among companies [36][38] 2.2 Poultry Farming - White feathered chicken companies reported a revenue of 243.4 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, with a net profit increase of 104.6% [64] - Yellow feathered chicken prices declined significantly, leading to a challenging market environment [58] 2.3 Pet Food - The pet food sector achieved a revenue of 103.0 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 17.7% [22] - Domestic brands are gaining market share, while exports to the U.S. have decreased by 25.6% due to tariffs [22] 2.4 Animal Health - The animal health sector's revenue reached 132.7 billion in Q1-Q3 2025, with a 70.2% increase in net profit [22] - New product launches have contributed to above-average growth for some companies in this sector [22]