Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [12] Core Views - The company is expected to sustain its growth momentum due to its competitive supply chain advantages and a multi-channel, multi-category strategy, which is likely to enhance profitability [2][12] - The company has achieved significant sales milestones with its differentiated konjac product, indicating strong market potential [12] - The company is expanding its overseas market presence with localized products under its own brand, "Mowon," which is expected to contribute to revenue growth [12] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 4,115 million RMB in 2023 to 9,694 million RMB in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26.3% [4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 506 million RMB in 2023 to 1,264 million RMB in 2027, with a CAGR of 24.3% [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 1.85 RMB in 2023 to 4.63 RMB in 2027 [4] Market Position and Strategy - The company has established a comprehensive multi-channel matrix in the domestic market, enhancing brand strength for its "Big Demon King" konjac products [12] - The company is focusing on optimizing its product mix and channel structure, which is anticipated to improve profitability [12] - The company is leveraging its efficient organizational management and supply chain capabilities to capture market trends effectively [12]

Core Insights - The report indicates a stabilization in food and beverage demand, with signs of recovery becoming increasingly clear [1] - The core conclusion emphasizes a transition between old and new market dynamics, prioritizing market share [4] Industry Review - The food and beverage industry faced pressure in Q2 due to seasonal consumption declines and policy impacts, with significant differentiation among segments. Notably, the liquor and beer sectors were most affected, while beverages and snacks continued to show good growth [6] - Alcoholic beverages, particularly high-end liquor, are undergoing adjustments due to policy changes, while lower-alcohol options are experiencing growth. The report suggests monitoring long-term trading opportunities in the liquor sector [6][12] - The beverage sector remains robust, with double-digit growth expected in categories like electrolyte water and coconut water. The report highlights the upcoming IPO of a coconut water brand, projecting an 80% revenue growth for 2024 [6] - The snack industry is transitioning from channel expansion to category-driven growth, with strong momentum expected to continue into 2026 [6] - The restaurant supply chain is experiencing weak demand, but signs of stabilization are emerging, particularly in basic condiments and frozen prepared foods [6] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors sensitive to policy changes, such as liquor, beer, and dairy products, with specific stock picks including Guizhou Moutai and Yanjing Beer [6] - It suggests selecting strong individual stocks with clear market share gains or strong earnings certainty, such as Dongpeng Beverage and Haitian Flavoring [6] - High dividend yields are highlighted as a significant safety net in the current weak market environment, with Chongqing Beer being a notable example [6] Liquor Sector Analysis - The liquor index has underperformed the broader market, with a 12% decline year-to-date, primarily due to weakening consumer demand and increased competition [12] - The report notes that the performance of individual liquor stocks has diverged, with some brands gaining market share while others struggle [13] - Guizhou Moutai's price has seen a significant decline, with a year-on-year drop exceeding 20%, impacting overall sector valuations [12][19] Profitability Forecasts - The report anticipates that many companies will struggle to meet their growth targets in 2025, with a general downward revision of revenue growth expectations [44] - It highlights that the external environment remains uncertain, putting pressure on demand, and companies are focusing on inventory reduction and sales promotion [45]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market index [1][57]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of new product categories and channels, highlighting potential alpha opportunities within the food and beverage sector [4]. - The secondary market performance shows a decline of 0.62% in the food and beverage sector, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.92 percentage points, ranking 20th among 31 sectors [7][12]. - The report identifies key trends in various sub-sectors, including the stabilization of liquor prices, improving beer demand, and high growth potential in the snack segment [7][27]. Summary by Sections 1. Secondary Market Performance - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 0.62%, with the liquor sub-sector showing a relative increase of 1.20% [12]. - Top-performing stocks included Huang Shang Huang, Jiu Gui Jiu, and ST Tong Pu, with gains ranging from 5.12% to 11.71% [12][17]. 2. Major Consumer Goods and Raw Material Prices - Liquor prices as of July 7, 2025, show a mixed trend, with the 2024 Flying Moutai price at 1,890 RMB for scattered bottles, down 160 RMB from the previous month [21]. - Beer production in May 2025 reached 3.584 million kiloliters, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.30% [27]. - Dairy prices indicate a stable trend, with fresh milk priced at 3.04 RMB per kilogram, while pork prices are at 20.58 RMB per kilogram, showing a slight increase [29]. 3. Industry Dynamics - The report notes that there are currently 65,900 beer-related enterprises in China, predominantly located in East and Northeast regions [54]. - Recent promotional activities, such as the Taobao flash sale, have significantly boosted sales in the liquor and dairy sectors [54]. 4. Core Company Dynamics - Key company updates include Kuozi Jiao's announcement of a cash dividend of 1.30 RMB per share, totaling 778 million RMB [56].

Group 1: Beer Industry - The beer sector is experiencing marginal demand improvement, with cost reductions enhancing profit elasticity. In 2024, terminal consumption remains weak, but leading beer companies are working on channel inventory destocking, with inventory levels at historical lows. The sector's valuation has dropped to a five-year low, but there is a high certainty of sales data recovery in 2025 due to low base effects and consumption policy stimuli, which may catalyze valuation increases. Additionally, costs are in a downward cycle, and product structure optimization is ongoing, indicating potential profit elasticity. Companies to watch include Qingdao Beer and Yanjing Beer, which have strong growth momentum and stable profit improvement [2][41]. - The beer production volume has stabilized over the past four years, with expectations for steady production in the next five years. The main consumer demographic for beer is aged 18-49, and after peaking in 2013, beer production has gradually declined. The production volume is expected to remain stable, with a slight decrease projected for 2024 [9][11]. - The beer industry has a high concentration, with the top five companies holding over 90% market share. Price increases remain a key growth driver for leading companies, particularly in the 6-10 yuan price range, as low-end products upgrade and high-end demand recedes [13][17]. Group 2: Snack Industry - The snack industry is entering a stable growth phase, with accelerated penetration into lower-tier markets and continued channel benefits. The retail market for leisure food and beverages is projected to reach 3.7 trillion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 4.1%. The lower-tier market is expected to grow faster than higher-tier markets, with a projected market size of 1.18 trillion yuan by 2025 [44][45]. - Health-conscious and quality-oriented demands are increasingly shaping the snack market. Products like konjac and quail eggs are gaining popularity due to their health benefits and taste experiences. The konjac market is expected to continue its rapid growth, with significant sales increases noted in recent quarters [68][79]. - The rise of membership supermarkets is creating new opportunities for snack growth. Companies are actively expanding their presence in membership channels like Sam's Club and Hema, which are becoming key points for product launches and rapid sales growth [61][79]. Group 3: Dairy Industry - The dairy industry is experiencing a gradual improvement in supply-demand dynamics, with expectations for a turning point in the raw milk cycle. The price of fresh milk has been declining, leading to increased losses in dairy farming, but a reduction in raw milk inventory is anticipated as summer demand for cold dairy products rises. This could enhance the profitability of dairy companies once prices stabilize [2][82]. - The dairy sector has faced three rounds of price declines since 2008, with the current cycle extending due to weak demand and excess supply. The total milk production in China is projected to decrease for the first time since 2018, indicating a significant adjustment phase for the industry [88].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Chinese A-share market and its performance as of June 2025, highlighting improvements in market sentiment and liquidity leading to a rise in stock prices [1][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Performance**: Major indices such as the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 increased by 2.5%, 4.3%, and 5.5% respectively in June, while the Hang Seng Index rose by 3.4% [4]. - **Sector Returns**: - Information Technology led with a 9.7% increase YTD, driven by strong performance in tech hardware and AI-related stocks [2][6]. - Financials and Materials sectors also performed well, with increases of 7.3% and 6.9% respectively [2][6]. - Conversely, the Real Estate sector saw a decline of 1.0% YTD, reflecting ongoing challenges in the market [2][7]. - **Earnings Expectations**: By the end of June, the market's earnings expectations for the CSI 300 index for 2025 and 2026 remained stable at a year-on-year growth of 15.5% and 12.5% respectively [4][24]. - **Investment Trends**: There was a net outflow of $475 million from A-shares in the four weeks ending June 20, with the financial, industrial, and consumer sectors experiencing the most significant sell-offs [10][4]. Additional Important Insights - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: - Retail sales in May grew by 6.4%, supported by government policies, while fixed asset investment growth slowed to 2.9% [31][34]. - The trade surplus for May was reported at $103.2 billion, with exports increasing by 4.8% year-on-year [32][34]. - **Market Sentiment**: The report indicates a cautious sentiment regarding potential reforms from the upcoming political bureau meeting, with expectations for further financial market openings and industry policy adjustments [4][30]. - **Sector-Specific Challenges**: The daily consumer sector faced a decline of 3.4% due to regulatory measures affecting government officials and state-owned enterprise employees [7][6]. Conclusion - The Chinese A-share market is experiencing a mixed performance across sectors, with technology and finance leading gains while real estate and consumer sectors face challenges. Macroeconomic indicators suggest a cautious recovery, with potential for future reforms to stimulate growth.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the liquor industry, suggesting a bottoming opportunity for investment in high-end liquor brands and potential cyclical recovery in beer and yellow wine sectors [2][11][12]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is experiencing pressure on sales due to external risks and a need for demand improvement, with expectations for the price of original box Feitian Moutai to stabilize around 2000 RMB [2][11]. - The beer industry is showing signs of stabilization with a recovery in dining demand and potential for high-frequency sales tracking, suggesting a favorable outlook for the upcoming peak season [3][12]. - The yellow wine sector is witnessing a trend towards premiumization and market promotion efforts by leading brands, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [3][13]. - The snack food industry remains robust, driven by channel expansion and new product penetration, with expectations for continued high growth in Q2 [3][12]. - The soft drink sector is seeing demand improvement driven by health-oriented and functional beverages, with a positive outlook for brands like Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring [4][14]. - The seasoning industry is stabilizing at a low point, with growth relying on structural upgrades and increased demand from the restaurant sector [5][15]. Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - Feitian Moutai's original box price is stable between 1900-1950 RMB, with expectations for a price stabilization around 2000 RMB [2][11]. - The industry is under pressure, but the market's expectations for short-term performance have been adequately priced in, suggesting a potential for recovery [12]. Beer Industry - The beer sector is expected to stabilize with a recovery in dining demand and increased focus on non-drinking channels [3][12]. - The industry is positioned for a favorable performance in the upcoming peak season, with anticipated steady mid-year earnings [3][12]. Yellow Wine Industry - The trend towards premiumization is becoming a consensus among leading brands, with increased marketing efforts and a focus on younger consumers [3][13]. Snack Food Industry - The snack food sector is maintaining high growth due to channel expansion and new product introductions, with Q2 performance expected to continue the positive trend [3][12]. Soft Drink Industry - The soft drink market is improving, driven by health and functional beverages, with brands like Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring expected to perform well [4][14]. Seasoning Industry - The seasoning sector is stabilizing, with growth dependent on structural upgrades and increased demand from the restaurant industry [5][15].

证券代码：002847 证券简称：盐津铺子 公告编号：2025-037 盐津铺子食品股份有限公司 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整， 没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 特别提示： 规定，盐津铺子食品股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）回购专用证券账户持有 的公司股份 1,050 股不享有参与本次利润分配的权利。 实施后除权除息价格计算时，每股现金红利应以 0.9999961 元/股计算，每 10 股 现金红利为 9.999961 元。 公司总股本折算每股现金红利比例计算如下： 按总股本折算每股现金红利=实际现金分红总金额/总股本（含回购股份）， 即：272,778,629 元÷272,779,679 股=0.9999961 元/股； 除权除息参考价=除权除息日的前一交易日收盘价-按总股本折算每股现金 红利； 综上，2024 年度权益分派实施后的除权除息价格按照上述原则及计算方式 执行，即本次权益分派实施后的除权除息价格=除权除息日的前一交易日收盘价 -0.9999961 元/股。 公司 2024 年度权益分派方案已获 2025 年 5 月 14 日召开的 2024 年年度股东 大会审议 ...

没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 证券代码：002847 证券简称：盐津铺子 公告编号：2025-037 盐津铺子食品股份有限公司 2024年度权益分派实施公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整， 特别提示： 1、根据《深圳证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 9 号-回购股份》的相关 规定，盐津铺子食品股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）回购专用证券账户持有 的公司股份 1,050 股不享有参与本次利润分配的权利。 2、因公司回购股份不享有参与本次利润分配的权利，因此，本次权益分派 实施后除权除息价格计算时，每股现金红利应以 0.9999961 元/股计算，每 10 股 现金红利为 9.999961 元。 公司总股本折算每股现金红利比例计算如下： 按总股本折算每股现金红利=实际现金分红总金额/总股本（含回购股份）， 即：272,778,629 元÷272,779,679 股=0.9999961 元/股； 除权除息参考价=除权除息日的前一交易日收盘价-按总股本折算每股现金 红利； 综上，2024 年度权益分派实施后的除权除息价格按照上述原则及计算方式 执行，即本次权益分派实施后的除权除息价 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of 91.84 CNY [1][4]. Core Viewpoints - The company is transitioning from "product export" to "supply chain + brand export," with a significant investment of 220 million CNY in establishing its first overseas factory in Thailand, focusing on konjac and potato chip categories [3]. - The company aims to achieve a 10%-20% share of overseas business within 3-5 years, indicating a strategic shift towards globalization [3]. - The financial performance remains robust, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 at 783 million CNY, 999 million CNY, and 1.215 billion CNY respectively, despite adjustments due to raw material and labor cost fluctuations [4][8]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 4.115 billion CNY in 2023 to 9.190 billion CNY by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.1% [6]. - The net profit margin is projected to stabilize around 12% over the forecast period, with net profit growth rates of 67.8%, 26.5%, and 22.3% for the years 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively [6][10]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to increase from 1.85 CNY in 2023 to 4.45 CNY in 2027 [6][10].

Core Viewpoint - Company is transitioning from "product export" to "supply chain + brand export," aiming to establish a global growth trajectory through local manufacturing and branding strategies [1][2] Group 1: Overseas Expansion Strategy - Company announced an investment of 220 million yuan to establish its first overseas factory in Thailand, focusing on konjac and potato chip products, leveraging local low-cost raw materials and labor advantages [1] - The chairman set a target for overseas business to account for 10%-20% of total revenue within 3-5 years, indicating a significant strategic shift towards international markets [1] Group 2: Market Potential and Product Performance - The konjac market is experiencing rapid growth, with the "Big Devil" konjac product projected to achieve a 76% year-on-year revenue increase in 2024, highlighting its status as a phenomenon in the industry [1] - The Chinese konjac snack market has surpassed 30 billion yuan, with an expected five-year CAGR of 28%, indicating strong growth potential [1] Group 3: Channel and Organizational Evolution - The company is undergoing a channel transformation, with the share of supermarkets decreasing from 54% in 2017 to 3.6% in 2024, while e-commerce and new retail channels now account for over 96% [1] - The company has established a foundation for "standardized replication" across supply chain, branding, and channels, supporting its ability to replicate success in overseas markets [1] Group 4: Financial Performance and Projections - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.537 billion yuan, a 25.7% increase, and a net profit of 178 million yuan, an 11.6% increase, with a net profit margin of 11.5% [2] - The gross profit margin was 28.5%, down 3.6 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to changes in channel and product category structures [2] - Forecasts for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 are 783 million yuan, 999 million yuan, and 1.215 billion yuan, reflecting adjustments due to fluctuations in raw material and labor costs [2]