本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1787 | -3 郑州尿素5-9价差(日,元/吨) | 32 | 7 4032 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 240285 | -6009 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -21160 | | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 11256 | -1434 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1790 | 0 河南(日,元/吨) | 1770 | 0 | ...

免责声明 铝类产业日报 2026/2/2 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客 为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 23,035.00 | -1525.00↓ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 2,772.00 | +4.00↑ | | | 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | -1,335.00 | -1395.00↓ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | -162.00 | -4.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 238,005.00 | -46894.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 375,783.00 | -67133.00↓ | | | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) ...

2月2日，国内期市有色金属板块全线飘绿。其中，铸造铝合金期货主力合约开盘报22805.0元/吨，今日 盘中低位震荡运行；截至发稿，铸造铝合金主力最高触及22960.0元，下方探低21840.0元，跌幅达 7.00%附近。 新湖期货指出，近期消费端总体走弱，订单下降，部分压铸企业减产明显。而再生铝合金企业产业也小 幅下降，但库存继续攀升，总体库存处于相对高位。不过由于废料价格上涨，再生铝合金企业成本上 涨，现货价格也跟随上调。高库存有压力，成本上涨则有支撑，短期铸造铝合金多空交织，仍难形成有 力驱动，仍跟随铝价为主。操作上建议谨慎操作。 国信期货分析称，原料方面，近期铝价抬升下，废铝报价亦随之全线大幅上调，且考虑到废铝自身供应 趋紧的情况，废铝将呈现出更强的抗跌性。随着现货价格走高，再生铝行业扭亏为盈，但原料价格同步 上涨，成本压力、原料供应的限制以及环保管制下，再生铝行业开工率难以回升，预计春节前包括 ADC12在内的再生铝产量难有增长。需求方面存在车企长单的支撑，但暂难给予价格上涨动力。近期 再生铝社会库存持续去库，但仍处于历史高位。整体而言，短期内铝合金预计随铝价自高位回调震荡， 中长期以偏多思路对待。 ...

瑞达期货研究院 关 注 我 们 获 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 「2026.01.30」 玉米类市场周报 续涨动能略显不足 玉米期价高位回落 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 取 更 多 资 讯 联系电话：0595-86778969 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 3 Ø 玉米： Ø 行情回顾：本周玉米期货震荡收跌。主力2603合约收盘价为2271元/吨，较上周-29元/吨。 Ø 行情展望：美玉米供需格局较为宽松，继续牵制国际玉米市场价格，国际市场潜在的进口压力仍 存。国内方面，东北产区基层余粮持续消耗，干粮价格高企导致发货情况不理想，剩余粮源相对 集中于种植户及贸易环节，随着春节前下游备货的启动，种植户售粮心态有所松动，出粮速度较 前期偏快，贸易商对优质粮源存囤积意愿偏强，下游产品进入消费旺季，深加工企业为保障生产 连续性，加大玉米收购力度，玉米现货价格总体受到支撑。盘面来看，受现货偏强支撑，近期盘 面维持偏强震荡。不过，上方压力仍然较大，短期有望高位震荡。 「 周度要点小结 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2260 - 2400 in the short - term [7] - The domestic methanol market shows a split between the port and the inland. The port market oscillates, while the inland price continues to decline. The overall domestic methanol production is increasing, and the inventory shows different trends in different regions. The short - term MTO industry's operating rate is expected to rise slightly [8] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2260 - 2400 in the short - term [7] - Market performance: The port methanol market oscillates, with the price in Jiangsu ranging from 2240 - 2330 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2220 - 2290 yuan/ton. The inland price continues to decline, with the price in Ordos North Line ranging from 1785 - 1805 yuan/ton [8] - Outlook: The domestic methanol production increases. The inland enterprise inventory decreases slightly, the port inventory accumulates, but the port inventory is expected to decline next week. The short - term MTO industry's operating rate is expected to rise slightly [8] 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - Price trend: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou methanol futures oscillates and closes up, with a weekly increase of 0.96% [11] - Inter - delivery spread: As of January 30th, the MA 5 - 9 spread is - 24 [16] - Position analysis: As of January 29th, the number of Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts is 7410, a decrease of 335 compared to last week [25] Spot Market - Domestic price: As of January 29th, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang area is 2300 yuan/ton, an increase of 37.5 yuan/ton compared to last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia is 1790 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton compared to last week. The spread between East China and Northwest is 510 yuan/ton, an increase of 42.5 yuan/ton compared to last week [30] - Foreign price: As of January 29th, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port is 272 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton compared to last week. The spread between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port is 50 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 8 US dollars/ton compared to last week [35] - Basis: As of January 29th, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol is - 52 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16.5 yuan/ton compared to last week [39] 3.3. Industry Chain Analysis Upstream - Coal and gas prices: As of January 28th, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5500 kcal is 685 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of January 29th, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.88 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 1.48 US dollars/million British thermal units compared to last week [42] Industry - Production and operating rate: As of January 29th, China's methanol production is 2037735 tons, an increase of 28820 tons compared to last week; the device capacity utilization rate is 91.21%, a month - on - month increase of 1.43% [45] - Inventory: As of January 28th, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 42.41 tons, a decrease of 1.42 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%; the order backlog of sample enterprises is 26.57 tons, an increase of 2.74 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 11.50%. The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 147.21 tons, an increase of 1.46 tons compared to the previous data. The inventory in East China accumulates, while that in South China decreases [52] - Import volume and profit: In December 2025, China's methanol import volume is 173.40 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.56%; from January to December 2025, China's cumulative methanol import volume is 1440.54 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.75%. As of January 29th, the methanol import profit is - 12.43 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.94 yuan/ton compared to last week [57] Downstream - Operating rate: As of January 29th, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins devices is 81.95%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.2%. The MTO devices of Zhejiang Xingxing, Sierbang, and Shandong Hengtong continue to be shut down, while the Ningbo Fude device restarts, but the weekly average operating rate still decreases [60] - Profit: As of January 30th, the domestic methanol - to - olefins on - paper profit is - 936 yuan/ton, an increase of 102 yuan/ton compared to last week [63] 3.4. Options Market Analysis - Not provided in the content

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) rose collectively. The main contract EC2604 closed up 7.81%, and the far - month contracts rose between 3 - 11%. The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index was 1859.31, down 94.88 points from last week, a 4.9% month - on - month decline [6][37]. - The full - refund cancellation of photovoltaic products is expected to lead to a rush of shipments, boosting long - term contract cargo volume. Geopolitical conflicts and extreme weather in Northwest Europe have also short - term boosted freight rates [6][37]. - In December, China's foreign trade rebounded beyond expectations. Exports are the core driving force of China's economy, and it is expected to maintain a high growth rate in 2026 [6][37]. - In terms of spot freight rates, Maersk's price reduction pressure has slightly improved, but other shipping companies continue the pre - festival trend of reducing prices to attract cargo [6][37]. - The decline in eurozone inflation provides conditions for policy wait - and - see, but leading indicators such as PMI are still near historical lows, indicating a fragile recovery foundation [6][37]. - Overall, the slight price increase by multiple shipping companies at the current price end boosts futures prices, and the rush - export effect of the photovoltaic tax - refund policy supports contracts after April [6][38]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - The main contract price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures rose significantly this week. The EC2604 contract's trading volume and open interest both decreased [13][15]. - The table shows the week - on - week changes and closing prices of different futures contracts and the spot index [10]. 2. News Review and Analysis - Trump said Putin agreed to a one - week suspension of air strikes on Ukraine, and plans to announce the nomination of the next Fed chair next week. The US plans to reopen Venezuelan airspace [18]. - The EU and India reached a free - trade agreement, with significant tariff cuts on both sides [18]. - The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75%. Unemployment has shown signs of stabilizing, and inflation remains relatively high [18]. - China and the UK reached a series of positive results, including developing a comprehensive strategic partnership and tariff cuts on whisky [18]. 3. Weekly Market Data - The basis and spread of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures contracts both contracted this week [24]. - The export container freight rate index fluctuated slightly this week [27]. - Global container capacity continued to grow, and European Line capacity rebounded slightly. BDI and BPI declined, and freight rates fluctuated slightly [30]. - The charter price of Panamax ships rebounded this week, and the spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar converged [33]. 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The same as the core viewpoints, including the price trends of futures and spot, the impact of policies, and suggestions for investors [37][38]

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.1.30」 股指期货周报 作者：廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 联系电话：4008-8787-66 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息面概览 3、周度市场数据 4、行情展望与策略 「摘要」 1、行情回顾 2020.06.30 厦门 「行情回顾」 | 期货 | 合约名称 | 周涨跌幅% | 周五涨跌幅% | 收盘价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IF2603 | 0.04 | -1.32 | 4711.0 | | | IH2603 | 1.19 | -1.64 | 3074.0 | | | IC2603 | -3.42 | -2.07 | 8362.4 | | | IM2603 | -3.01 | -0.84 | 8260.6 | | 现货 | 指数名称 | | | 收盘价 | | | 沪深300 | 0.08 | -1.00 | 4706.34 | | | 上证50 | 1.13 | -1.43 | 3066.50 | | | 中证500 ...

1月30日，国内期市能化板块大面积飘绿。其中，PVC期货盘面表现偏强，截至发稿主力合约大幅上涨 3.62%，报5073.00元/吨。 供应方面，华联期货指出，当前供应压力总体仍偏高，不过2026年国内仅有浙江嘉化30万吨新增产能， 国外原计划的阿联酋项目计划推迟，供应扩张进入尾声。 库存方面，广州期货介绍，截至1月29日，样本总库存来看，华东及华南原样本仓库总库存54.36万吨， 较上一期增加1.78%，同比增加22.88%。华东及华南扩充后样本仓库总库存106.82万吨，较上一期增加 1.70%，同比增加33.89%。 后市来看，光大期货表示，PVC整体表现为弱现实强预期结构，但是出口在4月1日之后不再退税，长期 会有上行压力，而短期反而会有支撑，预计PVC价格维持底部震荡。 需求方面，瑞达期货（002961）分析称，终端地产、基建正处低温淡季，春节临近下游企业陆续休假停 工，下游节前促销带来的需求难以持续。短期出口预期仍较好，但对国内供需矛盾缓解有限，库存预计 维持高位上升趋势。 ...

供应方面，广州期货指出，废铝原料供应偏紧价格整体保持稳定，有进口增量货源流入国内市场，临近 春节，部分企业对原料备货需求走增，成本端为铝合金价格提供较强支撑。 需求端，瑞达期货（002961）分析称，由于行业淡季影响，下游压铸企业实际订单增量较少，向上采买 仅为刚需补货，消化库存为主，加之铸铝价格偏高位运行，其备货意愿亦不足。 1月30日，国内期市有色金属板块跌多涨少。其中，铸造铝合金期货行情呈现震荡下行走势，截至发稿 主力合约报23110.0元/吨，跌幅达3.04%。 消息面上，上期所公告，经研究决定，自2026年1月30日(星期五)收盘结算时起，铸造铝合金期货已上 市合约的涨跌停板幅度调整为7%，套保持仓交易保证金比例调整为8%，一般持仓交易保证金比例调整 为9%。 展望后市，五矿期货表示，铸造铝合金成本端价格明显冲高回落，虽然需求相对一般，但在供应端扰动 持续和原料供应季节性偏紧背景下，短期价格预计仍有较强支撑。 ...

瑞达期货（002961）指出，目前港口库存持续去化，外盘价格稳定，原木下游整体需求边际恢复，基本 面矛盾不大，后续注意原木进口情况，现货有支撑。LG2603合约建议关注下方775附近支撑。 1月30日，国内期市能化板块多数飘绿。其中，原木期货主力合约开盘报789.0元/立方米，今日盘中高 位震荡运行；截至发稿，原木主力最高触及799.5元，下方探低788.0元，涨幅达1.66%附近。 目前来看，原木行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于原木后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 西南期货表示，后续供给方面需关注新西兰天气对新西兰发运的延迟影响，需求方面则受放假影响持续 收缩，基本面整体基调偏宽松持平。但成本端方面受地缘政治事件影响，原油、燃料油大幅上行，与海 上运费关联性较强，原木运费成本支撑强化。 格林大华期货分析称，供需矛盾突出，需求疲软压制价格上行，而低库存限制下跌空间，市场情绪以谨 慎观望为主导。低库存对价格形成一定支撑，国内外价格倒挂及盘面低于仓单成本的格局下，大幅下行 空间有限，但现货端弱现实制约反弹驱动，预计主力合约维持低位震荡，操作上建议区间交易并关注资 金动向。 ...