Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that 2026 will be a crucial year for China's economic work, marking the beginning of the "15th Five-Year Plan" and the transition to a period of solid foundation and comprehensive efforts [1] - Analysts from ten major securities firms provide insights on market trends, industry allocations, and major investment opportunities for 2026, aiming to clarify the investment landscape for investors [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities predicts that A-share company profit growth will show a trend of low growth initially followed by a recovery [2] - The market is expected to be influenced by the US-China trade agreement and the US midterm elections, with three phases of market performance anticipated [4] - Key investment themes include global pricing power in manufacturing, the expansion of Chinese companies overseas, the continuation of the tech trend with AI, and the potential recovery of domestic demand [4] Group 3 - CICC highlights that the restructuring of international order and China's industrial innovation will support A-share performance, with a market trend of initial growth followed by stabilization [5] - Analysts suggest focusing on growth sectors such as AI applications, industries benefiting from external demand, and cyclical sectors nearing recovery [7] Group 4 - GF Securities indicates that the A-share market is likely to maintain a "slow bull" pattern, with corporate profit structures undergoing significant changes [8][10] - The expected nominal GDP growth for China in 2026 is projected to reach 6.45%, significantly higher than in 2025, supporting the overall improvement in corporate profits [21] Group 5 - Analysts from various firms suggest that the market will shift from valuation-driven to profit-driven dynamics, with traditional and emerging industries contributing to profit recovery [15][17] - The focus on new production capabilities and the impact of policies like "anti-involution" are expected to improve competition in traditional industries and boost domestic demand [17] Group 6 - Analysts predict that more industries will enter a profit recovery phase in 2026, with nominal economic recovery and price increases being the most evident trends [18][20] - UBS forecasts that A-share company profit growth could rise to 8% due to improved nominal GDP growth and the narrowing of PPI declines [32] Group 7 - Analysts recommend focusing on four main investment themes: technological self-reliance, consumer sector recovery, "anti-involution" related sectors, and the global competitiveness of Chinese companies [34] - The market is expected to maintain a balanced style between growth and value, with cyclical sectors likely to outperform defensive sectors as the economy recovers [34]

Core Viewpoint - The analysis highlights the expected trends and investment opportunities in the A-share market for 2026, emphasizing a shift towards profitability-driven growth amid a recovering economy and evolving global dynamics [1][28]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - 2026 marks the beginning of the "15th Five-Year Plan," focusing on solidifying foundations and comprehensive efforts for economic modernization [1][28]. - The A-share market is anticipated to experience a recovery in corporate profitability, with a projected increase in earnings growth to 8% driven by improved nominal GDP growth and narrowing PPI declines [53][52]. Group 2: Market Phases - The market is expected to be segmented into three phases influenced by U.S.-China trade agreements and U.S. midterm elections, with a potential for sustained growth in a stable external environment [3][30]. - Analysts predict a "slow bull" market pattern, with corporate profitability stabilizing and the return of investment interest from insurance and high-net-worth individuals [7][34]. Group 3: Investment Themes - Key investment themes include: - The manufacturing sector's pursuit of global pricing power, particularly in non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and new energy [3][30]. - The globalization of Chinese enterprises, opening up new market opportunities in machinery, innovative pharmaceuticals, and military industries [3][30]. - Continued growth in the AI sector, with a focus on semiconductors, computing power, and AI applications [3][30]. - Recovery opportunities in domestic demand, particularly in sectors with potential for valuation elasticity [3][30]. Group 4: Sector Focus - Analysts suggest focusing on sectors with clear growth trends, such as AI, where capital expenditure is expected to expand, and cyclical industries like chemicals and renewable energy that may benefit from policy support [5][38]. - The technology sector is projected to maintain high profit growth, although the valuation gap with traditional sectors may pose challenges [40][42]. Group 5: Policy and Market Dynamics - The market is expected to transition from valuation-driven to profitability-driven dynamics, supported by fiscal policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and improving competition in traditional industries [38][40]. - Analysts emphasize the importance of capital market reforms to enhance flexibility and attract long-term investments, particularly in emerging industries [45][48].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the outlook for the A-share market in 2026, emphasizing the importance of economic work and investment strategies as China enters a critical period of its "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends and Economic Outlook - A-share company profit growth is expected to show a "low first, high later" trend in 2026, influenced by the US-China trade dynamics and the upcoming US midterm elections [3][5]. - The international order's restructuring and China's industrial innovation are anticipated to support A-share performance, with a market trend of initial growth followed by stabilization [6][8]. - The nominal GDP growth in China is projected to reach 6.45% in 2026, significantly higher than in 2025, indicating a recovery in corporate earnings [21]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities and Sector Focus - Key investment themes include the global pricing power in manufacturing, the expansion of Chinese companies overseas, the continuation of the tech trend with AI, and the potential recovery in domestic demand [5][8][19]. - Analysts suggest focusing on sectors with clear growth trends, such as AI applications, machinery, innovative pharmaceuticals, and energy equipment [5][8][19]. - The A-share market is expected to maintain a "slow bull" pattern, with a focus on industries experiencing supply constraints and clear growth trends, such as AI and energy storage [11][25]. Group 3: Policy and Structural Changes - The article highlights the need for policies that support long-term market stability and the development of new industries, particularly in technology and innovation [6][17][24]. - The "anti-involution" policies are expected to improve competition in traditional industries and stimulate domestic demand, contributing to overall market recovery [15][17]. - The capital market is anticipated to transition from valuation-driven to profit-driven dynamics, with a focus on sectors that can benefit from both traditional and emerging growth drivers [15][19].

Core Insights - The capital market showed a positive trend in 2025, with active trading reflected in the significant increase in transaction volume on the Longhu list, reaching 3.34 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of over 40% [1][2] - The competition among brokerage firms intensified, with notable changes in the rankings of the top 100 brokerage departments, highlighting the emergence of several "dark horse" firms [1][3] Group 1: Market Performance - In 2025, a total of 7,029 brokerage departments appeared on the Longhu list 123,900 times, with a total transaction volume of 3.34 trillion yuan, marking a 42.6% increase year-on-year [2] - The top 100 brokerage departments accounted for 2.26 trillion yuan of the total transaction volume, representing 67.66% of the market share, indicating a strong head effect [2] Group 2: Top Brokerage Departments - The "Lhasa team" under Dongfang Caifu Securities maintained a strong performance, occupying three of the top ten positions, with the Lhasa Tuanjie Road No. 1 Securities Department leading with a transaction volume of 127.87 billion yuan [2] - New entrants to the top ten include Kaiyuan Securities' Xi'an Xidajie Securities Department, which rose from 27th place in 2024 to 3rd in 2025, and several other firms that significantly improved their rankings [2][3] Group 3: Emerging Firms and Foreign Participation - Several "dark horse" brokerage departments made significant leaps in rankings, such as Guotai Junan's Shanghai Jing'an District New Zha Road Securities Department, which rose from 559th to 14th place [3] - The presence of foreign brokerage firms is increasing, with six foreign brokerage departments making it into the top 50, including UBS and Goldman Sachs, showcasing their growing influence in the market [4] Group 4: Industry Trends - The competition in brokerage business has intensified, reflecting differences in client scale, market share, and overall strength among various firms, as well as the strategic focus on regional development by branch offices [5] - The Longhu list serves as an important indicator of market sentiment and hotspots, with sectors like general equipment, chemical products, computer software, automotive, and semiconductors attracting significant investment [6]

东方财富证券首席策略分析师陈果表示，2026年市场虽然可能有波动，但牛市仍在，整体策略可概括 为"踏浪逐牛"。潜在超预期因素包括中国企业盈利修复、AI（人工智能）产业进展及中美务实合作的可 能性。 他提醒，在风险层面，市场波动或将源于美国再通胀与AI商业化进程的博弈，投资者需灵活应对。战 略布局上，建议投资者把握逢低配置机会；若外部环境恶化（如AI发展叙事受挫），则可转向内需政 策加码的相关主线。 （文章来源：证券时报） 陈果表示，2025年面对房地产等内需老经济下行及外部关税挑战，中国股市仍走出"信心重估牛"。这得 益于多领域"DeepSeek事件"，让市场重新认识到中国新经济的活力与AI全球竞争力。 他表示，进入2026年，配置上建议把握当前确定性较高的两大方面：一是AI成长板块，二是受益于商 品价格回暖的周期板块。若外部环境变化，则内需板块机会或将上升。具体聚焦三大线索：一是AI泛 科技链（如半导体、海外算力、有色、电网设备、端侧AI等）；二是供需有望反转的周期行业（如海 风、储能、锂电设备、光伏、化工以及油/煤领域等）；三是出海优势方向（如工程机械、创新药）。 ...

新元肇启、万象更新，我谨代表东方财富向所有投资者、合作伙伴及社会各界朋友致以诚挚的问候和美好的祝 愿。 过去一年，中国经济展现出强大韧性与蓬勃生机。作为资本市场参与者、科技创新实践者，东方财富始终与时代 同频，与市场共进，坚持以科技赋能金融，高效链接居民财富管理需求与实体经济融资需求。 新的一年，让我们满怀信心，携手共进，共同迎接一个更健康、更开放、更具活力的资本市场新明天！祝福大家 新年安康，阖家幸福，投资顺遂！ MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 面向"十五五"，我们始终坚信，金融的核心价值在于赋能实体经济血脉，在于服务人民美好生活。未来，东方财 富将勇担使命，做好"三棱镜"——折射政策阳光，聚焦用户需求；解析市场光谱，服务多元主体；透射时代光 芒，照亮价值航程。我们将继续以金融科技为桨，以专业诚信为帆，做金融变革浪潮中的"扬帆者"。 ...

Core Insights - The capital market showed positive trends in 2025, with active trading reflected in the turnover data of the "Long Hu Bang" (龙虎榜) trading departments, reaching 3.34 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of over 40% [1][2] - The competition among brokerage firms intensified, with significant changes in the rankings of the top 100 trading departments, highlighting the emergence of several "dark horse" departments [1][3] Trading Volume and Rankings - In 2025, a total of 7,029 brokerage departments appeared on the Long Hu Bang 123,900 times, with a total trading volume of 3.34 trillion yuan, marking a 42.6% year-on-year increase [2] - The top 100 trading departments accounted for 2.26 trillion yuan, representing 67.66% of the total trading volume, indicating a strong head effect [2] - The top ten positions saw significant representation from Oriental Fortune Securities, which held three spots, with the top position taken by the Lhasa Tuanjie Road department at 127.87 billion yuan [2] Emergence of New Players - New entrants made notable advancements, such as Kaiyuan Securities' Xi'an Xidajie department rising from 27th to 3rd place, and UBS and Goldman Sachs' Shanghai departments entering the top ten [2][3] - Several "dark horse" departments made significant leaps, including Guotai Junan's Shanghai Jing'an New Zha Road department moving from 559th to 14th, and Guosheng Securities' Ningbo Tiantong South Road department from 1014th to 48th [3] Growth of Branch Offices - The rankings of many brokerage branch offices improved significantly, showcasing their growth potential, with 22 branch offices appearing in the top 100 list [3] - Notably, Guoxin Securities' Zhejiang Internet branch, established only about five years ago, entered the top ten, while Guojin Securities' Shenzhen branch improved from 65th to 26th [3] Foreign Brokerage Participation - Six foreign brokerage departments made it into the top 50, reflecting their increasing importance in the market [4] - UBS's Shanghai Garden Shiqiao Road department and Goldman Sachs' Shanghai Pudong Century Avenue department ranked 8th and 9th, respectively, with significant improvements from the previous year [4] Market Trends and Insights - The changes in the Long Hu Bang rankings reflect the competitive landscape among brokerages, indicating differences in client scale, market share, and overall strength [5] - The trading activities of the top departments suggest a preference for sectors such as general equipment, chemical products, computer software, automotive, and semiconductors [5]

Core Viewpoint - Dongfang Caifu (300059.SZ) has been selected as a core asset in the financial sector, reflecting its strong performance and growth potential in the upcoming market environment [1] Industry Overview - The brokerage sector is entering a favorable growth cycle, driven by government policies aimed at stabilizing growth and the stock market, with a projected ROE of 8.61% for 2026, representing a 24% increase from 2025 [4] - The average daily trading volume in A-shares is expected to stabilize at 1.5 trillion yuan in 2025, with margin financing balances exceeding 2.5 trillion yuan, indicating a "healthy bull market" [1] Company Analysis - Dongfang Caifu has established a unique ecosystem combining "Dongfang Caifu Network + Tian Tian Fund + Securities," enhanced by AI technology, positioning it as a core asset with both beta and alpha advantages [1] - In the first three quarters of 2025, Dongfang Caifu reported revenue of 11.589 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 58.67%, and a net profit of 9.097 billion yuan, nearing the total for 2024 [1] Business Drivers - The brokerage business is expected to benefit from a bull market, with increased trading volumes leading to higher commission revenues [7] - The wealth management sector is expanding as Chinese residents shift asset allocation from deposits to funds and stocks, with Dongfang Caifu poised to capture more market share [7] - The integration of AI technology is enhancing service efficiency, with significant improvements in customer service response rates and user retention [7] Competitive Advantages - Dongfang Caifu's competitive edge lies in its "traffic + license + technology" model, creating a robust moat that is difficult for competitors to replicate [9] - The company has a comprehensive licensing structure, allowing it to meet diverse financial needs and enhance user stickiness [10] - Significant investment in technology has resulted in high profit margins and operational efficiency, with a gross margin of 69% and a net margin of 81.2% in 2025 [11] Financial Performance - The financial performance of Dongfang Caifu is strong, with a net asset of 72 billion yuan and a debt-to-asset ratio of 76.63%, indicating a solid financial position [19] - The dynamic PE ratio is 28.81, which is lower than the average PE of traditional brokerages at around 20, suggesting a favorable valuation relative to growth prospects [22] Growth Projections - Revenue from brokerage services is expected to exceed 8 billion yuan, with margin interest income reaching 4.5 billion yuan, and fund distribution income projected to hit 2 billion yuan in 2026 [22] - The AI and data services segment is anticipated to experience explosive growth, transitioning from a supplementary role to a core growth driver [16]

Core Viewpoint - Dongfang Caifu (300059.SZ) has been selected as one of the "Top Ten Core Assets" in the "Betting on China" list for 2026, representing the financial industry in a global perspective [2] Summary by Sections Selection Reasons and Analysis Logic - The "14th Five-Year Plan" for a strong financial nation is being implemented, leading to a significant shift in resident deposits and a "healthy bull market" in A-shares, with an expected average daily trading volume of 1.5 trillion yuan in 2025 [3] - The brokerage industry is experiencing a mismatch between high profit growth and stock price stagnation, indicating that the sector has defensive and offensive characteristics in the anticipated "slow bull" market of 2026 [3] Business Performance - In the first half of 2025, Dongfang Caifu's securities service revenue reached 5.279 billion yuan, accounting for 76.99% of total revenue, a year-on-year increase of 54.24% [5] - The company’s net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 was 9.097 billion yuan, nearing the total for the entire year of 2024, showcasing its position as the only internet brokerage leader in A-shares [6] Industry Opportunities - The brokerage industry is expected to benefit from three major opportunities in 2026: a bull market driving brokerage business, continuous expansion of wealth management, and the integration of financial technology [11][14] - The average daily trading volume in A-shares is projected to exceed 2 trillion yuan in 2026, with Dongfang Caifu's market share in stock funds reaching 4.25% [11] Competitive Advantages - Dongfang Caifu has established a unique competitive edge through a combination of traffic, licenses, and technology, creating a moat that is difficult for competitors to replicate [15][16] - The company has a significant user base with over 50 million daily active users, and its customer acquisition cost is only 150 yuan, which is one-fourth of traditional brokerages [17][18] Financial and Valuation Insights - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenues of 11.589 billion yuan and a net profit of 9.097 billion yuan, with growth rates significantly surpassing traditional brokerages [29] - The dynamic PE ratio for the third quarter of 2025 was 28.81 times, indicating a valuation that is lower than traditional brokerages while maintaining a higher growth rate [31] Business Breakdown - The revenue from securities business is expected to be the main growth driver, with projected commission income exceeding 8 billion yuan in 2026 [23] - The fund distribution business, known for its high profit margins, is anticipated to generate 2 billion yuan in revenue in 2026, benefiting from the increasing popularity of equity funds [24] - AI and data services, although currently a smaller revenue contributor, are expected to see significant growth as technology becomes more integrated into financial services [25]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the securities industry, indicating an expected stock performance that will exceed the market by more than 10% over the next 12 months [9]. Core Insights - The public fund sales fee reform has been smoothly implemented, with a focus on benefiting investors and addressing market concerns. The reform is expected to save approximately 51 billion CNY in investment costs annually, with a comprehensive fee rate reduction of about 20% [5]. - The new rules on redemption fees have been established to protect market liquidity while benefiting investors. The differentiation in redemption fees is aimed at encouraging long-term investment practices [5]. - The classification of products and supporting policies have been upgraded to create a more refined fee rate regulatory system, promoting the development of index funds and equity funds [5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of wealth management institutions' service capabilities in the context of the growing equity fund market, suggesting a focus on companies like Huatai Securities, CICC, Guotai Junan, and CITIC Securities [5]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Changes - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) issued new regulations on public fund sales fees, effective from January 1, 2026, marking the completion of a three-phase fee reduction process [5]. - The third phase of the reform is projected to provide approximately 30 billion CNY in annual benefits to investors [5]. Product Classification - The new regulations simplify redemption fee structures into three tiers and allow flexible arrangements for different types of funds, particularly benefiting individual investors in index funds [5]. - The maximum subscription fee rates have been refined, with specific caps for different fund types, encouraging the growth of index funds [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that are well-positioned to benefit from the reforms and the anticipated growth in the equity fund market, including Huatai Securities (AH), CICC (H), Guotai Junan (AH), and CITIC Securities (AH) [5].