Core Viewpoint - The year 2025 has seen significant performance from actively managed equity funds, with the highest annual return reaching 236.88%, setting a record for the highest annual doubling fund in public fund history [1][5][7]. Group 1: Fund Performance - As of December 26, 2025, a total of 72 actively managed equity funds have achieved returns exceeding 100% [6][12]. - The average return of actively managed equity funds surpassed 30%, significantly outperforming the average benchmark return of 15.60% [6][12]. - The median return for these funds stands at 29.03%, which is lower than the average return of 32.71% [2][12]. Group 2: Market Trends - Nearly 80% of actively managed funds outperformed their benchmarks, with 3,455 funds achieving returns above their benchmarks [2][6]. - The performance of these funds is closely tied to the structural market conditions, particularly benefiting from sectors like AI technology and innovative pharmaceuticals [8][12]. - The concentration of holdings in top-performing funds is high, with an average top ten stock position of 62.72%, compared to an average of 46.2% across all funds [8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The active equity fund sector is expected to continue its recovery, with a focus on increasing the number of high-performing funds to benefit a larger number of investors [2][12][15]. - There is a call for a more sustainable approach to fund management, emphasizing long-term value creation over short-term gains [15]. - The investment landscape is evolving, with a shift from experience-driven strategies to data and industry-driven approaches, enhancing the ability to capture opportunities in niche markets [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, both the US and Chinese stock markets performed well, with the US three major stock indices rising over 1% and the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.9%. The growth is due to the resonance of the global technology sector and year - end pre - positioning [4]. - Market risk preference is on the rise. Since mid - December, the S&P 500 volatility has generally declined, and the basis discount of stock index futures has narrowed since December [4]. - Leverage funds' activity significantly increased this week, becoming a major driving factor for the market. The proportion of margin trading turnover in A - share turnover rebounded, and leverage funds flowed into major broad - based indices [5]. - In 2026, the incremental funds flowing into the stock market are estimated to be 3.1 trillion yuan, and the scale of "fixed income +" products will double. If the market adjusts in December, incremental funds may pre - position. Next year, technology will still be the most promising direction for the spring rally [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Asset Price Performance 3.1.1 Global Asset Performance - Global stocks: Most global stock indices rose, with the Korean Composite Index rising 2.7% and the Nikkei 225 rising 2.5%. The French CAC40 and the British FTSE 100 declined [12]. - Global bonds: US Treasury yields declined, while Japanese and Chinese government bond yields rose [12]. - Global commodities: Precious metals performed well, with COMEX silver rising 18.2% and lithium carbonate rising 16.5%. The US dollar index declined [12]. 3.1.2 A - share Market Performance - Broad - based indices: A - shares generally rose, with the ChiNext and STAR 50 indices rising 3.9% and 2.8% respectively. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 also had significant gains [21][23]. - Trading volume: Except for the dividend index, the average daily trading volume of broad - based indices increased, returning to the level around mid - August [25]. - Industry performance: The top five rising industries were non - ferrous metals (8.47%), national defense and military industry (7.51%), power equipment (6.27%), machinery and equipment (5.74%), and basic chemicals (5.70%). Most cyclical sectors performed well, except for banks and coal [31]. - Technology sector: Since December, optical modules and optical communications have led the way, and on Monday, most technology sub - sectors rose and many had increased trading volume [35][39]. 3.2 Capital Behavior Tracking 3.2.1 Leverage Funds - Margin trading turnover ratio: The proportion of margin trading turnover in A - share turnover rose from 10.24% to 11.20%. The margin trading balance increased to about 2.53 trillion yuan, and the ratio of margin trading balance to A - share free - float market capitalization slightly decreased [49]. - Inflow into broad - based indices: From Monday to Thursday, leverage funds flowed into major broad - based indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 1000, and CSI 300 having daily net inflows of over 2.5 billion yuan. Most broad - based ETFs had net outflows on Monday - Thursday, and on Friday, most broad - based indices had inflows except for the Shanghai Composite Index ETF and ChiNext Index ETF [54]. - Market - cap gradient: Stocks of all market - cap gradients increased leverage, with large - cap stocks above 50 billion yuan having a larger increase. Stocks like Zhongji Innolight, Industrial Fulin, Cambricon, and Zijin Mining had large net margin purchases [58]. - Industry perspective: Industries with large margin net purchases as a proportion of turnover included communications, real estate, machinery and equipment, etc. The national defense and military industry increased leverage for six consecutive weeks, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery increased leverage for nine consecutive weeks [62]. - Hot stocks: Some hot stocks in the national defense and military industry and electronics added leverage. Stocks like Zhaoyi Innovation, Zhongji Innolight, and others had a margin net purchase as a proportion of turnover exceeding 10% [70]. 3.2.2 Quantitative Funds - Excess return: Since December, the median excess returns of CSI 500 and CSI 1000 quantitative index - enhanced strategies have been - 1.15% and 0.61% respectively [72]. - Futures basis: This week, the near - month stock index futures basis changed from premium to discount, and the far - month contract basis discount narrowed. Excluding the futures delivery week, the basis discount has been narrowing since December [78]. 3.2.3 Main Force Funds - Sector net flows: The main force funds in the CSI 300 and ChiNext continued to have net outflows, but the outflows slowed down. The main force funds in the STAR Market had net outflows for five consecutive trading days, accelerating compared to last week [80]. - Industry flows: Main force funds flowed into the power equipment industry and out of industries such as national defense and military industry, computers, electronics, and non - bank finance [88]. 3.2.4 Northbound Funds - Trading volume and proportion: The total trading volume of northbound funds decreased, with the average daily trading volume dropping from 203 billion yuan to 176.6 billion yuan, and the proportion in A - share trading volume dropping from 11.52% to 9.29% [92]. - Performance of heavy - holding stocks: The heavy - holding stocks of the Northbound Connect changed from rising to falling, and the Northbound Connect 50 index underperformed the CSI 300 [94]. 3.2.5 Southbound Funds - Trading volume and net purchases: The average daily trading volume of southbound funds decreased from 144.2 billion yuan to 110.2 billion yuan, and the proportion increased from 52.3% to 58.9%. The average daily net purchase amount decreased from 2.9 billion yuan to 0.8 billion yuan [99]. - Industry allocation: Southbound funds still had a balanced allocation, flowing into industries such as media, electronics, and non - bank finance, and flowing out of industries such as communications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and non - ferrous metals [102].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the communication sector, including Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, and Tianfu Communication, indicating strong growth potential in the upcoming years [8]. Core Insights - The communication industry is expected to experience high growth, with many companies likely to release annual performance forecasts that exceed a 50% year-on-year increase in net profit, reflecting robust market demand and solid positions of leading companies [2][5][24]. - The report emphasizes the importance of returning to performance fundamentals as the year-end approaches, with January being a critical period for performance forecasts that will set the growth tone for the first half of the following year [1][18]. Summary by Sections Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on performance fundamentals and highlights the importance of the upcoming earnings forecasts as a key observation window for investors [1][18]. - Recommended sectors include computing power, optical communication, and satellite communication, with specific companies identified for investment [5][12][25]. Market Review - The communication sector has shown an upward trend, with satellite communication navigation performing particularly well, leading the sector's growth [14][15]. - The report notes that the overall communication industry is in a high prosperity cycle, with many companies expected to report significant growth [24]. Performance Forecasting Methodology - Two methods for estimating annual net profit growth based on Q3 data are outlined: the first method involves calculating the ratio of cumulative net profit for the first three quarters to the previous year's total net profit, while the second method uses quarter-on-quarter growth trends to project Q4 profits [20][23]. - Companies showing strong performance in these analyses are likely to exceed the critical 50% growth threshold [24]. Key Companies to Watch - The report identifies several key companies for investment, including Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Tianfu Communication, and others in the computing power and optical communication sectors [5][12][25]. - Specific recommendations include companies involved in liquid cooling and satellite communication, indicating a diversified approach to investment opportunities within the sector [5][12].

Core Insights - The A-share market's AI narrative is clearly defined by a "hardware-first" approach, with exponential growth in computing power driving significant revenue increases in hardware sectors like CPO, AI servers, and storage chips [1] - The focus is shifting from hardware to applications as the AI industry matures, with expectations for a dual explosion in performance and valuation for AI application companies in 2026 [1][2] - The advertising sector is leading the commercialization of AI applications, particularly in digital advertising, where companies are leveraging AI for operational efficiency and new revenue streams [1][2] Hardware Sector Performance - Industrial Fulian (601138.SH) reported a fivefold year-on-year revenue increase in AI server-related business, while Zhongji Xuchuang (300308.SZ) saw significant growth in optical module revenue [1] - The hardware infrastructure is expected to provide the necessary support for application layers, with several brokerages indicating a shift in investment opportunities from hardware to application sides in 2026 [1] Advertising Sector Developments - Applovin (APP.US) exemplifies the success of AI in advertising, with a stock price increase of up to 56 times since the launch of ChatGPT, and a 71% year-on-year revenue growth in Q1 2025 [2] - BlueFocus (300058.SZ) and Leo Group (002131.SZ) have also begun to realize AI advertising business revenue, benefiting from large existing businesses and rich data resources [2][3] Vertical Industry Applications - Companies in vertical industries such as industrial AI, tax services, and office automation are achieving significant revenue growth through AI integration [5][6] - Nengke Technology (603859.SH) reported AI business revenue of 335 million yuan, accounting for 30.79% of total revenue, driven by its AI Agent products [5] - TaxFriend (603171.SH) achieved a 42.33% year-on-year increase in net profit, attributed to AI-driven revenue growth and efficiency improvements [6] 3D Printing Innovations - The release of Google's Nano Banana Pro is expected to revolutionize the 3D printing industry by significantly reducing design cycles and costs, thus driving demand for raw materials [8] - Companies like Changjiang Materials (001296.SZ) and Yinbang Co. (300337.SZ) are positioned to benefit from the anticipated growth in the 3D printing sector [9][10] Future Outlook - The A-share AI investment landscape is expected to transition from hardware speculation to application performance validation in 2026, with companies that have deep industry knowledge and data barriers likely to see significant profit growth [10] - The common traits among successful AI application companies include strong industry expertise, focus on vertical scenarios, and clear monetization strategies [7][10]

Core Viewpoint - The Gigabit Layer 3 switch is a high-performance network device that integrates Layer 2 MAC address switching and Layer 3 IP routing functions, with port speeds reaching gigabit and above, widely used in the core and aggregation layers of local area networks (LANs) [1] Industry Overview - The Gigabit Layer 3 switch market is expected to reach a scale of 22.66 billion yuan in 2024, significantly higher than the overall switch industry growth rate, driven by digital transformation and supportive policies in China [1][12] - The industry has a clear division of labor in its supply chain, with domestic manufacturers gradually achieving self-replacement in core components, focusing on technological upgrades such as 400G ports and silicon photonics integration [1][9] Industry Policies - Recent policies in China, including the "Action Plan for High-Quality Development of Computing Power Infrastructure" and the "Implementation Opinions on Promoting the Construction of a National Integrated Computing Network," have created favorable conditions for the Gigabit Layer 3 switch industry, driving demand in data centers, enterprise networks, and industrial internet [8][9] Industry Chain - The industry chain consists of upstream core components and materials, midstream equipment R&D and manufacturing, and downstream applications in various sectors such as data centers, enterprise networks, and government services [9][10] - The demand for Gigabit Layer 3 switches is driven by the digital transformation of various industries, with data centers being the largest and most technology-driven segment [10][11] Current Development Status - The overall switch market in China is projected to reach 42.36 billion yuan in 2024, with the Gigabit Layer 3 switch segment benefiting from the "East Data West Computing" initiative and the increasing demand for high-reliability, low-latency networking equipment [12][13] Future Development Trends - The Gigabit Layer 3 switch industry is expected to evolve towards intelligent and high-speed technology, localized market scenarios, and green safety development [13] - Key trends include the integration of AI and SDN/NFV technologies for intelligent traffic management, a focus on domestic manufacturers gaining market share, and an emphasis on green and secure product features [14][15]

- The report introduces a quantitative model named "250-day new high distance" to track market trends and identify hot sectors. The model is based on momentum and trend-following strategies, which have been proven effective in previous studies[11][18][19] - The construction process of the "250-day new high distance" model is as follows: Formula: $ 250\text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{Close_t}{ts\_max(Close, 250)} $ Explanation: - $ Close_t $ represents the latest closing price - $ ts\_max(Close, 250) $ represents the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days If the latest closing price reaches a new high, the distance equals 0; otherwise, it is a positive value indicating the degree of pullback from the high[11] - The model evaluates the proximity of major indices to their 250-day highs. For example, as of December 26, 2025, the 250-day new high distances for indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index are 1.63% and 12.56%, respectively[12][31] - The report highlights the effectiveness of tracking stocks that consistently hit new highs, as these stocks often lead market trends. This approach aligns with the principles discussed in "The Stock Wizard" and other momentum-based studies[18][19] - A screening method for "stable new high stocks" is introduced, focusing on factors such as analyst attention, relative stock strength, price path smoothness, and trend sustainability. Stocks are selected based on their performance over the past 120 days and their ability to maintain a stable upward trajectory[24][27] - The screening process includes specific metrics: - Analyst attention: At least five buy or overweight ratings in the past three months - Relative stock strength: Top 20% in market performance over the past 250 days - Price path smoothness: Evaluated using metrics like price displacement ratio - Trend sustainability: Average 250-day new high distance over the past 120 days and the last five days[27] - The report identifies 50 "stable new high stocks" for the week, including companies like Zhongji Xuchuang, Yingweike, and Xinyisheng. These stocks are primarily concentrated in cyclical and technology sectors, with the highest representation in industries like non-ferrous metals and renewable energy equipment[28][32] - Backtesting results show that the "250-day new high distance" model effectively captures market trends and identifies leading stocks. For instance, indices closer to their 250-day highs often exhibit stronger momentum, and stocks with stable new highs demonstrate consistent upward trajectories[12][31][32]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3963.68 points, up 0.1%, with a trading volume of 893.6 billion yuan [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13603.89 points, up 0.54%, with a trading volume of 1266.55 billion yuan [1] - The ChiNext Index closed at 3243.88 points, up 0.14%, with a trading volume of 578.73 billion yuan [1] - The STAR Market 50 Index closed at 1345.83 points, down 0.24%, with a trading volume of 45.2 billion yuan [1] - The total trading volume of both markets was 2160.15 billion yuan, an increase of 235.64 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - Strong performance was observed in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, steel, precious metals, electric equipment, retail, securities, chemicals, and oil and petrochemicals [2] - Active concepts included lithium mining, titanium dioxide, small metals, synchronous reluctance motors, phosphorus chemicals, gold, fluorine chemicals, satellite internet, and duty-free [2] - The electronic, communication, light manufacturing, food and beverage, and pharmaceutical sectors experienced declines [2] Individual Stock Performance - A total of 1786 stocks rose while 3212 stocks fell, with 169 stocks remaining flat and 12 stocks suspended [2] - Notable stocks with consecutive limit-up days included Victory Energy with 11 consecutive limit-ups, Jia Mei Packaging with 8, and Shen Jian Co. with 7 [4] - The stock with the highest net inflow was Sunshine Power, with a net inflow of 2.372 billion yuan, followed by Aerospace Development and BYD with net inflows of 2.072 billion yuan and 1.460 billion yuan respectively [8][9] Fund Flow Analysis - The net outflow of main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 24.243 billion yuan, with the ChiNext experiencing a net outflow of 13.396 billion yuan [5] - Six sectors saw net inflows, with the electric equipment sector leading at 7.752 billion yuan [5] - The electronic sector had the highest net outflow at 8.84 billion yuan, followed by communication and machinery sectors [5] Institutional Activity - Institutions had a net buy of approximately 434 million yuan, with Aerospace Development receiving the highest net buy of about 482 million yuan [14][15] - The stocks with the highest net sell by institutions included Shenghong Technology with a net outflow of 1.39 billion yuan [11][12]

沪指12月26日上涨0.10%，申万所属行业中，今日上涨的有19个，涨幅居前的行业为有色金属、电力设 备，涨幅分别为3.69%、1.40%。跌幅居前的行业为电子、轻工制造，跌幅分别为0.71%、0.61%。通信 行业位居今日跌幅榜第三。 资金面上看，两市主力资金全天净流出232.84亿元，今日有8个行业主力资金净流入，电力设备行业主 力资金净流入规模居首，该行业今日上涨1.40%，全天净流入资金85.60亿元，其次是有色金属行业，日 涨幅为3.69%，净流入资金为38.14亿元。 通信行业资金流出榜 | 代码 | 简称 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 今日换手率（%） | 主力资金流量（万元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300502 | 新易盛 | -0.60 | 2.81 | -126894.90 | | 300308 | 中际旭创 | -2.00 | 1.93 | -126237.63 | | 300548 | 长芯博创 | -3.66 | 8.13 | -48400.04 | | 300394 | 天孚通信 | -0.69 | 2.91 | -41804.99 | ...

Group 1 - A500ETF Southern (159352) has seen a 0.65% increase, marking a six-day consecutive rise, with a trading volume of 7.878 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 17.12% [1] - The CSI A500 Index, which the A500ETF closely tracks, rose by 0.60%, with several constituent stocks, including Yongxing Materials and Enjie Co., each increasing by 10% [1] - The CSI A500 Index is recognized as a "barometer of China's new productive forces," covering approximately 90 tertiary industries and focusing on industry leaders and ESG criteria [1] Group 2 - Listed companies in China have accelerated investments in innovation, with a total R&D expenditure of 1.16 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, marking three consecutive years of over 1 trillion yuan in R&D spending [2] - The A-share market is entering a critical window for cross-year layout, with structural opportunities expected to align with policy guidance and industry prosperity [2] - A500ETF Southern (159352) offers a low management fee of 0.15% and a custody fee of 0.05%, providing a high-precision, low-cost investment channel [2]

文/新浪财经上海站 十里 近日，市场流传消息称，长光华芯已获得中际旭创相关EML（电吸收调制激光器）订单，引发二级市 场关注。 对此，疑似长光华芯证券事务代表杜佳于12月25日在朋友圈进行辟谣称，公司近期不存在需要披露的订 单公告，并提示广大投资者注意投资风险，理性决策，审慎投资。 责任编辑：公司观察 ...