投资要点 核心利润贡献占比提升，业绩符合市场预期。25 年Q1-3 营收2831 亿元，同+9%，归母净利润490 亿 元，同+36%，扣非净利润436 亿元，同+36%；毛利率25.3%，同-2.9pct，归母净利率17.3%，同 +3.4pct。其中25Q3 营收1042 亿元，同环比+13％/+11％，归母净利润185.5 亿元，同环比+41%/+12％， 扣非净利润164 亿元，同环比+36%/+7％，毛利率25.8%，同环比-5.4/+0.2pct，归母净利率17.8%，同环 比+3.6/+0.3pct。Q3 汇兑收益和其他收益下降，核心利润贡献比重提升。 要点如下： 1）Q3 电池确收近165gwh，产能供不应求：我们预计25Q3 公司产量190GWh，发货180GWh，确收 165GWh+，同环比+35%/+13%，其中储能预计37GWh，占比22%。25 年Q1-3 公司累计排产 500GWh+，预计全年排产730-750GWh，同增40%+；确收累计435GWh，预计全年确收630GWh，同增 33%，其中储能预计为130-140GWh，同增45%；25 年预计新增100GWh 库存，主要为 ...

Core Insights - As of October 21, the total market financing balance reached 2.43 trillion yuan, an increase of 140.54 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] - A total of 1,895 stocks received net financing purchases, with 496 stocks having net purchases exceeding 10 million yuan, and 38 stocks exceeding 100 million yuan [1] - The top net purchase stock was Cambrian Technologies-U, with a net purchase of 1.196 billion yuan, followed by Luxshare Precision and Industrial Fulian with net purchases of 674 million yuan and 657 million yuan respectively [1][2] Financing Balance and Stock Performance - The financing balance in the Shanghai market was 1.2285 trillion yuan, increasing by 64.97 billion yuan, while the Shenzhen market's financing balance was 1.1911 trillion yuan, up by 74.11 billion yuan [1] - The average financing balance as a percentage of the circulating market value for stocks with significant net purchases was 4.39%, with the highest being Siquan New Materials at 12.69% [2] Industry and Sector Analysis - The industries with the highest concentration of stocks receiving net purchases over 100 million yuan were electronics, communication, and power equipment, with 13, 6, and 5 stocks respectively [1] - Among the stocks with significant net purchases, the electronic sector dominated, with notable stocks including Cambrian Technologies-U, Luxshare Precision, and Industrial Fulian [2][3]

进入10月下旬，A股上市公司三季报披露也随之进入高峰期。Wind数据显示，截至10月21日午间， 已有140家A股上市公司发布了三季报以及预告，其中，117家公司实现盈利，数量占比超八成。整体来 看，140家公司合计实现营业收入2.16万亿元，同比增长5.73%；归属于母公司股东的净利润总额达 2740.45亿元，同比大幅增长21.22%。 分板块来看，主板、创业板与科创板呈现出截然不同的盈利特征与增长逻辑。主板的82家已披露上 市公司净利润合计2266.56亿元，占全部已披露利润的82.7%，而同期主板企业占全市场总量的63.5%， 这表明主板的"压舱石"作用十分明显。其中，能源、金融与高端制造等行业的持续盈利作出了重要贡 献；中国移动以1153.53亿元的净利润独占鳌头，占主板净利润总额的50.9%。其三季报显示，中国移动 2025年前三季度共实现营业收入7947亿元，同比增长0.4%；归属于母公司股东的净利润为1154亿元， 同比增长4.0%。三季度营业收入为2509亿元，同比增长2.5%；归属于母公司股东的净利润为311亿元， 同比增长1.4%。 在主板8家亏损企业中，有些企业尽管前三季度出现亏损，但 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that CATL achieved robust growth in Q3 2025, with total revenue reaching 104.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 18.55 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 41.2% [1] - The net profit margin for the period was 19.1%, which is an increase of 4.1 percentage points compared to the previous year, indicating improved profitability [1] - CATL made significant advancements in capacity, technology, and industrial ecosystem during the reporting period, with major expansions in production bases across various regions in China and successful overseas operations [1] Group 2 - The company launched the world's first NP3.0 technology and the Shenxing Pro battery, and its sodium-ion battery became the first to receive certification under the new national standards, establishing a solid safety foundation for large-scale applications [1] - CATL is deepening its industrial ecosystem through strategic partnerships with industry giants, including a collaboration with JD Group to integrate battery technology with digital supply chain advantages [2] - The partnership with Sinopec aims to build a nationwide battery swapping network, with operational chocolate battery swap stations and the first heavy-duty truck battery swap station already in place [2]

Core Viewpoint - JD.com is set to launch a "National Good Car" in collaboration with GAC and CATL during this year's "Double Eleven" shopping festival, focusing on sales and user insights rather than manufacturing the vehicle itself [1][11]. Group 1: Product Details - The "National Good Car" emphasizes safety features, including a weight capacity of over 7 tons, an 18% increase in body impact resistance, semi-hidden safety door handles, and performance in the moose test at speeds above 75 km/h [2][4]. - The vehicle is speculated to be the Aion UT battery-swappable version, leveraging existing designs rather than creating a new product [5][9]. - The Aion UT battery-swappable version is expected to have a range of 500 km, with a battery capacity of 54.036 kWh, and is projected to be priced around 120,000 yuan for the high-end version [9]. Group 2: Market Positioning - The Aion UT competes in a highly popular segment of electric vehicles priced around 100,000 yuan, but its sales have lagged behind competitors, with only 5,337 units sold in September [9][10]. - The collaboration with JD.com aims to leverage its vast user base and traffic to enhance visibility and sales for the Aion UT, addressing the challenges of the underdeveloped battery-swapping market [10][18]. Group 3: Sales Strategy - JD.com possesses significant advantages, including a large user base of over 500 million and a comprehensive automotive ecosystem that supports the entire car buying process [14][15]. - Despite the potential for initial sales boosts during the "Double Eleven" event, long-term success will depend on building brand trust and providing offline experiences, as online car sales face inherent challenges [12][18].

随着全球向清洁能源加速转型，电池储能正从边缘角色迅速崛起为能源市场的核心赛道。 天合光能董事长高纪凡表示："业内曾经有一句话，要么走向海外，要么退出市场。由于关税，仅仅出 口是不够的，你还必须在海外实现本地化生产。"美国市场迎"爆发式"增长 多年来在美国电力系统中扮演边缘角色的电池储能，如今正迎来繁荣期。 根据能源数据门户Cleanview的数据，得益于自2022年以来电池价格约40%的下降，美国公用事业规模 的电池储能容量自2020年以来实现了15倍的惊人增长，目前已接近30000兆瓦（MW）。 目前，美国已有19个州安装了100兆瓦或以上的公用事业规模电池储能。其中，加利福尼亚州以约13000 兆瓦的装机容量遥遥领先，占全美总量的约42%。这使得该州在用电高峰时段能够严重依赖电池供电。 成本优势凸显，储能竞争力超越传统能源 最新数据显示，中国储能企业的海外扩张势头迅猛。据中国储能联盟统计，2025年上半年，中国企业获 得的海外储能订单总计达186吉瓦时（GWh），同比激增超过220%。这一增长凸显了中国制造商在全球 供应链中的重要性。 尽管面临部分市场的关税壁垒，中国企业仍在积极开拓新市场。数据显示，来自 ...

10月22日，宁德时代盘中下跌2.00%，截至09:45，报368.38元/股，成交25.52亿元，换手率0.16%，总市 值16808.64亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出2.04亿元，特大单买入4.33亿元，占比16.97%，卖出6.80亿元，占比 26.64%；大单买入7.89亿元，占比30.91%，卖出7.46亿元，占比29.22%。 宁德时代今年以来股价涨42.10%，近5个交易日跌0.25%，近20日涨4.23%，近60日涨28.96%。 分红方面，宁德时代A股上市后累计派现611.05亿元。近三年，累计派现581.56亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，宁德时代十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第二大流 通股东，持股6.61亿股，相比上期增加5392.29万股。易方达创业板ETF（159915）位居第六大流通股 东，持股5486.00万股，相比上期减少915.77万股。华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF（510300）位居第八大流通股 东，持股4498.16万股，相比上期减少201.50万股。易方达沪深300ETF（510310）位居第十大流通股 东，持股3251.77万股，相比上期 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a focus on the macroeconomic environment, indicating that the industrial added value in September showed a year-on-year growth of 6.5%, which is an increase compared to August and better than market expectations [6][8] - The report notes that the fixed asset investment growth rate for the first nine months of 2025 has fallen into negative territory, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 0.5% [7][9] - The real estate sector is experiencing a decline in housing prices, with new home prices in 70 major cities decreasing by 0.4% month-on-month in September, and second-hand home prices also down by 0.6% [10][11] Macroeconomic Overview - In September, the industrial added value increased by 6.5% year-on-year, with manufacturing showing a cumulative growth of 6.8% for the first nine months [6][8] - The actual GDP growth for the first three quarters was 5.2%, with expectations to meet the annual target of 5.0% [6][9] - Fixed asset investment in the first nine months saw a decline of 0.5%, with private investment down by 3.1% [7][9] Real Estate Sector Analysis - The report indicates that in September, 63 out of 70 cities saw a month-on-month decline in new home prices, with an average drop of 0.47% [11][12] - The second-hand home prices in all 70 cities also experienced a decline, marking a significant trend as it is the first time in a year that all cities reported falling prices [10][11] - In first-tier cities, new home prices decreased by 0.3%, while second-hand home prices fell by 1.0%, indicating a more pronounced decline compared to second and third-tier cities [12][13] Investment Opportunities - The report lists a selection of stocks recommended for investment, including companies like Nanfang Airlines and Ningde Times, suggesting potential opportunities in the aviation and battery sectors [1] - The performance of various industry indices shows that the telecommunications and electronics sectors have seen significant gains, with increases of 4.90% and 3.50% respectively [4]

全固态核心瓶颈逐步突破，产业化加速： 固态电池被广泛认为是下一代电池发展方向，相对液态锂电池，其具 有更高的能量密度和热稳定性等优势，但固态电解质与金属锂电极的 界面接触问题一直是制约其产业化的难题之一。根据 10 月 7 日新华 社报道，中科院团队开发出一种阴离子调控技术，解决了全固态电池 中"固固接触"难题，为其走向实用化提供了关键技术支撑。 固态电池产业化持续推进，未来前景可期： 1）10 月 18 日，奇瑞汽车在 2025 奇瑞全球创新大会上展出全固态电 池模组，电芯能量密度高达 600Wh/kg，续航里程将提升到 1200-1300 公里。奇瑞汽车预期全固态电池 2027 年首批装车验证；2）10 月 13 日，国轩高科称公司在全固态电池技术领域实现关键突破，全固态电 池目前处于中试量产阶段，并已启动 2GWh 量产线的设计工作。 头部电池企业盈利增强，资本开支有望提升： 根据宁德时代 25 年三季报，公司三季度归母净利润 185.49 亿元，同 比增长 41.21%，电池行业盈利持续改善。宁德时代持续布局固态电 池赛道，我们认为公司盈利提升有望拉动固态设备相关资本开支。 2025 年 10 月 2 ...

文 | 《能见派》栏目 刘丽丽 宁德时代交出第三季度"成绩单"。 根据财报，第三季度单季营业收入为1041.86亿元，同比增长12.9%；归母净利润185.49亿元，同比增长41.21%。前三季度，宁德时代实现营业收入2830.72亿元，同比增长9.28%；归属母 业绩飙升的同时，其市占率的"王者地位"似乎开始动摇。根据乘联分会日前公布的数据，动力电池方面，宁德时代市场份额降至41.7%，创下近6年来的最低纪录，而行业第二梯队企业的份额在 关于宁德时代为何动力电池份额下降较快，乘联分会秘书长崔东树对《能见派》表示，电池产业发展较快，尤其磷酸铁锂产业发展特别快，宁德时代在磷酸铁锂的份额出现下降，处于一种被稀释 被蚕食的王者 乘联会的数据显示，从2020年到2025年，宁德时代的市场份额分别为50.0%、51.9%、47.2%、43.5%、45.3%以及43.3%。与之相对的，中创新航、国轩高科、亿纬锂能（维权）等电池厂商 乘联分会秘书长崔东树表示："宁德时代市场总体来看处于一个萎缩或者慢增长的市场，这主要是行业发展速度不同带来的影响。" 关于动力电池企业市场份额的变化是否会持续扩大，崔东树认为，未来竞争激烈，二 ...