文 | 《能见派》栏目 刘丽丽 宁德时代交出第三季度"成绩单"。 根据财报，第三季度单季营业收入为1041.86亿元，同比增长12.9%；归母净利润185.49亿元，同比增长41.21%。前三季度，宁德时代实现营业收入2830.72亿元，同比增长9.28%；归属母 业绩飙升的同时，其市占率的"王者地位"似乎开始动摇。根据乘联分会日前公布的数据，动力电池方面，宁德时代市场份额降至41.7%，创下近6年来的最低纪录，而行业第二梯队企业的份额在 关于宁德时代为何动力电池份额下降较快，乘联分会秘书长崔东树对《能见派》表示，电池产业发展较快，尤其磷酸铁锂产业发展特别快，宁德时代在磷酸铁锂的份额出现下降，处于一种被稀释 被蚕食的王者 乘联会的数据显示，从2020年到2025年，宁德时代的市场份额分别为50.0%、51.9%、47.2%、43.5%、45.3%以及43.3%。与之相对的，中创新航、国轩高科、亿纬锂能（维权）等电池厂商 乘联分会秘书长崔东树表示："宁德时代市场总体来看处于一个萎缩或者慢增长的市场，这主要是行业发展速度不同带来的影响。" 关于动力电池企业市场份额的变化是否会持续扩大，崔东树认为，未来竞争激烈，二 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that the current market sentiment is at a high level, with a score of 80, categorizing it as "overheated" [5][8] - The report highlights three key investment themes: energy storage, eSIM technology, and nuclear fusion, each showing significant growth potential [5] Energy Storage - The "New Energy Storage Special Action Plan" in China aims for an installed capacity of 180 million kilowatts by 2027, attracting direct investments of 250 billion yuan, with policies enhancing project IRR to over 8% [5] - Overseas orders for energy storage are expected to surge by 220% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, reaching 160 GWh, indicating a shift in supply-demand dynamics [5] - Key companies in this sector include CATL (300750) and Sungrow Power (300274) [5] eSIM Technology - China Unicom launched its eSIM service on October 13, with over 60,000 reservations, indicating strong market interest [5] - The revival of eSIM services by the three major telecom operators in China is expected to accelerate commercial adoption [5] - Relevant companies include Eastcompeace Technology (002017) and Unisoc (002049) [5] Nuclear Fusion - The CRAFT project in China achieved a significant breakthrough with the successful testing of a key component, demonstrating a steady thermal load capacity of 20 MW/m² [5] - This development marks a milestone in the creation of the largest and highest thermal load filter prototype designed independently in China [5] - Companies involved in this field include Chuangyuan New Materials (002171) and Hongxun Technology (603015) [5]

Core Insights - On October 21, brokerages issued target prices for listed companies a total of 32 times, with notable increases in target prices for Ningde Times, ChuanTou Energy, and Yanjing Beer, showing increases of 51%, 44.26%, and 40.52% respectively, across the battery, power, and food & beverage sectors [1][2]. Target Price Increases - Ningde Times received target price increases from Dongwu Securities and Huatai Securities, with target prices of 567.00 CNY and 566.18 CNY, reflecting a target price increase of 50.84% and 50.62% respectively [2]. - ChuanTou Energy was rated by Huatai Securities with a target price of 21.25 CNY, indicating a target price increase of 44.26% [2]. - Yanjing Beer also received a target price increase from Huatai Securities, with a target price of 16.75 CNY, showing a target price increase of 40.52% [2]. Brokerage Recommendations - A total of 36 listed companies received brokerage recommendations on October 21, with Yanjing Beer receiving the highest number of recommendations at 8, followed by Ningde Times with 5, and Runben Co. with 4 [3][4]. - The companies with the most brokerage recommendations include: - Yanjing Beer (8 recommendations) - Ningde Times (5 recommendations) - Runben Co. (4 recommendations) [3][4]. First-Time Coverage - On October 21, brokerages provided 5 instances of first-time coverage, including: - Hongsheng Electronics received an "Increase" rating from Jianghai Securities - Hualu Hengsheng received a "Buy" rating from Global Fortune Financial - Zhongfu Shenying received an "Increase" rating from First Capital Securities - Ruoyuchen received an "Increase" rating from Huatai Securities - Huarun Micro received an "Increase" rating from Zhongyou Securities [5].

每日晨报 2025 年 10 月 22 日 | 阿里巴巴 | | BABA US | | --- | --- | --- | | AI 及云业务价值长期仍有增长潜力 | | 评级: 买入 | | 收盘价: 美元 173.47 | 目标价: 美元 200.00 | 潜在涨幅: +15.3% | | 谷馨瑜,CPA | connie.gu@bocomgroup.com | | 2026 财年 2 季度（截至 9 月）业绩预览：预计集团收入同比增 3.9%，基 本维持此前预期（下调 0.2%）。其中预计淘天 GMV 增速与大盘趋势一 致， CMR 保持高于 GMV 增速（接近 11%）。预计淘宝闪购对 app 运营 数据拉动效果持续，受大额补贴影响，业务整体亏损预计在 376 亿元， 受此影响，电商业务整体利润表现预计同比仅增中高个位数至约 110 亿 元。海外电商受海外不确定性因素，同比增速预计放缓至 16%，并实现 盈亏平衡。云业务进一步加速，预计收入同比超 30%，利润率持稳。 今日焦点 | 中国宏观 | | | | 全球主要指数 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 中国经 ...

Group 1 - The establishment of the Technology Service Industry Standardization Technical Committee by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology aims to enhance the standardization level of the technology service industry [2] - Guangdong Province has issued an action plan for high-quality development of manufacturing empowered by artificial intelligence, focusing on building data sets and promoting industrial internet big data centers [2] - Zhejiang Province aims to achieve over 90% application rate of intelligent agents by 2030, fostering new technologies and business models [3] Group 2 - NIO delivered over 10,000 vehicles in a week, with the L90 model achieving a record delivery of over 3,500 units [3] - Yushun has launched a quadruped robot training platform aimed at enhancing engineering practice capabilities for students [4] - The Chang'e 6 mission has identified impact remnants from CI-type carbonaceous chondrites in lunar soil samples, contributing to understanding the source of lunar water [4] Group 3 - Meituan's Keeta is expanding its international talent recruitment, offering high-paying positions in various countries [5] - Kweichow Moutai has denied rumors of opening 650 new specialty stores, labeling the information as false [5] - CATL plans to build over 2,500 battery swap stations across more than 120 cities by 2026 [6] Group 4 - China's battery production for the first nine months of the year has increased by 44% year-on-year, with a total output of 1,122 GWh [7] - China maintains its position as the world's largest wind power installation market for 15 consecutive years, with a total installed capacity of 580 million kW [7] - Volvo has introduced a free home charging plan for new electric vehicle buyers in Sweden [8] Group 5 - Elon Musk claims that SpaceX is the only company capable of completing NASA's lunar missions, emphasizing competition and innovation in the space sector [9][10] - Archer Aviation has signed an agreement with Korean Air to introduce eVTOL aircraft in South Korea [10] - Science Corporation has reported successful clinical trial results for its retinal implant, restoring vision to blind patients [11] Group 6 - A new record for human genome sequencing speed has been achieved, allowing for rapid clinical applications [12] - The U.S. and Australia have signed a key minerals agreement valued at $8.5 billion [13] - The SEC's company filing database experienced intermittent outages, affecting access to critical financial information [14] Group 7 - The surge in gold prices has led to a high demand for gold bars in South Korea, with some banks suspending sales [14] - China's overseas box office revenue for films has already surpassed the total for the entire year of 2024, reaching $140 million by October 20, 2025 [15] - "Zhongzhi Keyi" has completed over 100 million A-round financing [16]

新股动态：北交所新股丹娜生物今日申购，申购代码920009，发行价17.1元。行业大事：①中国 固态电 池大会10月22-24日在合肥举行， 宁德时代、卫蓝 新能源、 国轩高科等参会。②2025 大湾区国际具身 智能 机器人产业大会暨展览会10月22-24日举办。③华为终端将于14:30发布鸿蒙 操作系统6。④2025中 国计算机大会（CNCC2025）10月22-25日在黑龙江省举办。⑤2025 工业软件创新发展大会10月22-24日 在湖南举办。大事件和会议：①NYMEX纽约原油11月 期货10月22日2:30完成场内最后交易，凌晨5:00 完成电子盘最后交易，部分平台换月时间提前一天。②美联储理事沃勒在美联储理事会支付创新会议上 致闭幕词。③欧洲央行行长拉加德发表讲话。④特斯拉、IBM将于当地时间10月22日美股盘后（北京时 间次日凌晨）公布财报。多项经济数据公布：①今日435亿元7天期逆回购到期。②日本9月出口同比， 预期4.4%，前值-0.1%；进口同比，预期0.6%，前值-5.2%；季调后商品贸易帐(亿日元)，预期-1000，前 值-1501；未季调商品贸易帐(亿日元)，预期225，前值-2425 ...

1.36 2.52 1.32 上证指数 3916 深证综指 2463 1.76 -0.39 0.95 2025 年 10 月 22 日 涨跌 (%) 收量 投资分析意见：我们维持此前盈利预测，预计 2025-2027 年公司分别 实现归母净利润 33.5、38.6、44.2 亿元，对应当前估值 19、16、14 倍，维持"买入" 评级。 风险提示：行业产能投放节奏超预期，特种布突破进展不及预期，外贸扰 动因素扩大。 宁德时代（300750）点评：业绩符合预期，需求饱满下利润稳 (联系人： 任杰/郝子禹) 风格指数 近６个月 昨日 近 1 个月 1.65 2.27 22.25 大盘指数 中盘指数 1.67 0.59 28.89 小盘指数 1.46 -1.34 23.27 计算机行业深度:摩尔线程:生态、架构、集群一国产 ASIC | 涨幅居卸 行业(%) | 時目 | 近１个月 近６个月 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 通信设备 | 6.26 | -0.13 | 127.85 | | 元件Ⅱ | 4.94 | -7 | 101.84 | | 消费电子 | 4.91 | 1.28 ...

宁德时代交出第三季度"成绩单"。 根据财报，第三季度单季营业收入为1041.86亿元，同比增长12.9%；归母净利润185.49亿元，同比增长 41.21%。前三季度，宁德时代实现营业收入2830.72亿元，同比增长9.28%；归属母公司股东净利润达 490.34亿元，同比增长36.2%，这也意味着，宁德时代每日净赚约1.8亿元。 关于宁德时代为何动力电池份额下降较快，乘联分会秘书长崔东树对《能见派》表示，电池产业发展较 快，尤其磷酸铁锂产业发展特别快，宁德时代在磷酸铁锂的份额出现下降，处于一种被稀释的状态，而 在三元电池方面，由于比亚迪全面转型磷酸铁锂电池，因此宁德时代、LG、蜂巢等企业的优势更加明 显。 被蚕食的王者 乘联会的数据显示，从2020年到2025年，宁德时代的市场份额分别为50.0%、51.9%、47.2%、43.5%、 45.3%以及43.3%。与之相对的，中创新航、国轩高科、亿纬锂能（维权）等电池厂商的份额在稳步提 升。 乘联分会秘书长崔东树表示："宁德时代市场总体来看处于一个萎缩或者慢增长的市场，这主要是行业 发展速度不同带来的影响。" 另有行业分析人士认为，第二梯队企业在细分领域有突破 ...

Group 1: Political Developments in Japan - Takashi Sawa was elected as Japan's first female Prime Minister, winning 125 votes in the second round of the Senate election and 237 votes in the first round of the House of Representatives [2] - Sawa is a proponent of expansionary fiscal policies and plans to increase defense spending, which may delay the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike plans [2][3] - The new government may face internal challenges in policy implementation due to its cross-party coalition [3] Group 2: Semiconductor Industry and China-Netherlands Relations - The Netherlands is seeking dialogue with China to resolve the deadlock surrounding Nexperia Semiconductor, which has implications for global automotive chip supply chains [4][5] - The Dutch government's intervention in Nexperia's affairs was prompted by U.S. pressure and aims to prevent the transfer of business and intellectual property out of Europe [4] - The intervention has disrupted normal production and created uncertainty in the global automotive manufacturing sector [5] Group 3: Real Estate Market in Shanghai - Shanghai's Xuhui Riverside area set a new record for land prices, with China Overseas acquiring a plot for 44.65 billion yuan, resulting in a floor price of 148,500 yuan per square meter [6] - The new home sales in Shanghai showed a significant increase in September, with a 35.9% month-on-month rise [6] - The cancellation of housing type controls in Shanghai's land auction indicates a shift in real estate market regulation, allowing market demand to dictate new home sizes [7] Group 4: Smart Glasses Market Growth - The global smart glasses market is projected to reach 4.065 million units shipped in the first half of 2025, marking a 64.2% year-on-year increase [8] - Meta's recent launch of Ray-Ban Display smart glasses has generated significant consumer interest, indicating market potential [8] - Despite initial enthusiasm, challenges such as limited battery life and high prices remain barriers to mainstream adoption [9] Group 5: CATL Financial Performance - CATL reported a revenue of 283.072 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a 9.28% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 49.034 billion yuan, up 36.2% [10] - The company's cash flow from operating activities was 80.66 billion yuan, reflecting a 19.6% increase [10] - CATL's profit growth is constrained by near-full production capacity and the need for new capacity expansion [11] Group 6: Lithium Carbonate Prices and Inventory Pressure - Lithium carbonate prices have started to recover, but CATL's battery prices have not followed suit, as the company focuses on maintaining product competitiveness [12] - The increasing share of energy storage products in CATL's sales has led to longer payment cycles and inventory pressure [12] Group 7: Cambrian Technology's Fundraising and Performance - Cambrian Technology completed a nearly 4 billion yuan private placement, raising approximately 3.985 billion yuan after expenses [13] - The company reported a 1332.52% year-on-year increase in third-quarter revenue, reaching 1.727 billion yuan, and a net profit of 567 million yuan, marking a turnaround [13] - Despite significant revenue growth, Cambrian's valuation remains high compared to global competitors, raising concerns about its long-term performance [14] Group 8: Kering's Sale of Beauty Business to L'Oréal - Kering announced the sale of its beauty division to L'Oréal for 4 billion euros, expected to close in the first half of 2026 [15] - The sale is part of Kering's strategy to reduce debt, which has reached 95 billion euros, amid declining performance in its core luxury brands [15][16] - L'Oréal aims to strengthen its position in the high-end fragrance market through this acquisition, while Kering focuses on its core business [16] Group 9: Stock Market Performance - The stock market experienced a rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.36% to 3916.33 points, and the ChiNext Index increasing over 3% [17] - Market sentiment has shifted positively due to easing tensions regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict and expectations of supportive real estate policies [18] - The market remains volatile, with significant trading volume and a mix of sector performances, indicating ongoing investor interest [18]

从评级调整方向来看，39只个股评级维持不变，2只个股评级获调高，1只个股为首次评级。此外，有8 只个股获多家券商关注，燕京啤酒、宁德时代、利安隆获评级数量居前，分别有5家、4家、2家券商给 予评级。 Wind数据显示，10月21日，共有42只个股获券商买入评级，其中10只个股公布了目标价格。按最高目 标价计算，宁德时代、宁德时代、川投能源目标涨幅排名居前，涨幅分别达50.84%、50.62%、 44.26%。 从获买入评级个股所属Wind行业来看，材料Ⅱ、资本货物、食品、饮料与烟草买入评级个股数量最 多，分别有13只、6只、6只。 ...