证券研究报告 | 2025年10月21日 公司 2025Q3 实现归母净利润 185.49 亿元，同比+41%、环比+12%。公司 2025 年前三季度实现营收 2830.72 亿元，同比+9%；实现归母净利润 490.34 亿元， 同比+36%；毛利率为25.31%、同比+0.34pct；净利率为18.47%，同比+3.52pct。 公司 2025Q3 实现营收 1041.86 亿元，同比+13%、环比+11%；实现归母净利 润 185.49 亿元，同比+41%、环比+12%；毛利率为 25.80%、同比-1.92pct、 环比+0.23pct；净利率为 19.13%，同比+4.12pct、环比+0.55pct。 公司电池销量快速提升，盈利能力表现强劲。我们估计 2025 年前三季度公 司动储电池销量超435GWh，同比增长超31%；其中Q3动储电池销量超165GWh， 同比增长超 31%、环比增长 14%。国内及欧洲新能源车需求持续向好，国内 以及海外储能订单饱满，带动公司电池销量持续走高。我们估计 2025Q3 公 司动储电池单位扣非净利约为 0.10 元/Wh、同环比基本持平。展望后续，公 司产能利用 ...

17 October 2025 Global Energy Storage Global Energy Storage: Should investors chase the rally in battery stocks? Neil Beveridge, Ph.D. +852 2123 2648 neil.beveridge@bernsteinsg.com Brian Ho, CFA +852 2123 2615 brian.ho@bernsteinsg.com Hengliang Zhang +852 2123 2629 hengliang.zhang@bernsteinsg.com China's battery value chain has surged on unexpectedly strong demand (+50% y- o-y), sparking a significant rally. In 3Q25, shares across the battery value chain rallied more than 50% for most Chinese companies, wit ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a collective rise, with foreign investors expressing optimism about China's market, particularly highlighting the potential for growth in the A-share index compared to other emerging markets like India [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance and Investor Sentiment - The A-share indices collectively rose on the 21st, with the Shanghai Composite Index reclaiming the 3900-point mark [1]. - UBS has maintained an "overweight" rating on China within emerging markets, citing faster revenue and earnings growth compared to India, and improvements in capital return rates for the MSCI China Index [1][3]. - Since October, A-shares have shifted from a "technology growth" style to a "value dividend" style, influenced by factors such as renewed US-China trade tensions and profit-taking by investors [1][3]. Group 2: Foreign Investment Trends - Foreign investors have been actively targeting leading A-share stocks, with significant holdings in companies like Siyuan Electric, Huaming Equipment, and Hongfa Technology, each having over 24% foreign ownership [2][6]. - As of the end of September, major foreign-favored stocks included Kweichow Moutai, Ping An Insurance, and Wuliangye, with foreign institutional holdings reaching 85, 83, and 81 respectively [6]. - The banking sector remains a strong focus for foreign investors, with seven of the top ten A-share companies by foreign holdings being banks [6][7]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Strategic Focus - UBS believes that the A-share market will continue to perform well in the medium term, with growth styles likely to outperform value styles [9]. - Investors are encouraged to focus on companies with strong fundamentals and pricing power to navigate uncertainties in the trade environment [10]. - The upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to provide investment opportunities, particularly in areas like "anti-involution" and service consumption, which may drive cyclical improvements in various industries [10][11].

Core Insights - The overall performance of A-share listed companies shows signs of recovery, with 103 companies reporting year-on-year profit growth and 101 companies reporting revenue growth as of October 21 [1] Group 1: AI Industry Performance - AI industry companies have shown remarkable performance, with Cambricon Technologies reporting a revenue of 4.607 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2386.38%, and a net profit of 1.605 billion yuan, turning from loss to profit [2] - Cambricon's third-quarter revenue reached 1.727 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1332.52%, despite a quarter-on-quarter decline in net profit [2] - Other AI companies like Haiguang Information and Shijia Photonics also reported significant revenue and profit growth, indicating strong market confidence in the AI sector [3] Group 2: Gold and Non-ferrous Metals Sector - Zijin Mining achieved a revenue of 254.2 billion yuan and a net profit of 37.864 billion yuan in the first three quarters, marking a year-on-year increase of 10.33% and 55.45% respectively [4] - The increase in Zijin's profits is attributed to rising gold prices and production, with gold production reaching 65 tons, a 20% increase year-on-year [4] - Other non-ferrous metal companies, such as Cangge Mining, also reported solid profit growth, driven by high metal prices and increased production [5] Group 3: New Energy and High-end Manufacturing - CATL reported a revenue of 283.072 billion yuan and a net profit of 49.034 billion yuan for the first three quarters, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.28% and 36.2% respectively [6] - The company’s third-quarter revenue was 104.186 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.9%, indicating strong performance in the new energy sector [7] - CATL's cash flow remains robust, with net cash flow from operating activities reaching 80.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.6% [7] Group 4: Challenges in Certain Sectors - Despite overall positive trends, 37 companies reported a year-on-year decline in net profit, and 39 companies saw a drop in revenue [8] - Notably, the pharmaceutical company Pianzaihuang reported a revenue decline of 11.93% and a net profit decline of 20.74%, marking its worst quarterly performance since listing [8] - Other companies, such as Rongbai Technology, also faced significant revenue and profit declines due to geopolitical impacts and increased idle capacity costs [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the competitive landscape of the battery industry, particularly focusing on the dominance of CATL and BYD in the domestic market, while highlighting the challenges and opportunities for second-tier battery manufacturers in both domestic and overseas markets [5][9][10]. Group 1: Domestic Market Dynamics - The domestic battery market is primarily dominated by CATL and BYD, which together hold approximately 70% market share, leaving only 30% for other manufacturers [9][10]. - Since 2019, the installed capacity of domestic power batteries has increased more than eightfold, with CATL's market share rising from 10% in 2015 to 41% by 2018, surpassing BYD [9][10]. - The shift in subsidy policies from "supporting the weak" to "strengthening the strong" has favored manufacturers with higher energy density batteries, allowing CATL to secure significant partnerships with major automakers [9][10][13]. Group 2: International Expansion - Second-tier battery manufacturers are increasingly looking to international markets for growth due to the saturated domestic market [9][14]. - The article highlights that overseas markets, particularly in Europe, offer higher profit margins and lower market concentration compared to the domestic market, making them attractive for expansion [16][23]. - The average price of lithium battery packs in Europe is significantly higher than in China, with a reported average of $139/kWh in Europe compared to $94/kWh in China, indicating greater profit potential for manufacturers operating in Europe [19][23]. Group 3: Challenges for Second-Tier Manufacturers - Second-tier manufacturers face intense competition from CATL, which has established a strong brand presence and customer loyalty, making it difficult for others to gain market share [14][33]. - The article notes that the number of domestic battery manufacturers has increased to 49, leading to oversupply and fierce competition, while the European market remains less saturated [26][30]. - The high costs associated with establishing production facilities overseas, including labor and operational expenses, pose significant challenges for second-tier manufacturers aiming to compete with established players like CATL [33][34].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance in Q3, with significant year-on-year growth in both revenue and net profit, driven by stable shipment volumes and increasing demand for energy storage batteries [3][4][5]. Financial Performance - In Q3, the company's revenue was approximately 104.19 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.9% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 18.55 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 41.21% [4]. - The net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses was 16.42 billion yuan, up 35.47% year-on-year [4]. - Basic and diluted earnings per share were both 4.10 yuan, reflecting a growth of 37.23% and 37.34% respectively [4]. - Total assets at the end of the reporting period reached 896.08 billion yuan, up from 786.66 billion yuan at the end of the previous year [4]. Shipment and Production - The total shipment volume in Q3 was approximately 180 GWh, with power batteries and energy storage batteries accounting for about 80:20 [5]. - The company noted an increase in the proportion of energy storage battery sales, which positively impacted net profit, although energy storage currently represents only 20% of total shipments [5]. - The company is experiencing a surge in energy storage orders, maintaining full capacity utilization, and is expanding production capacity across multiple bases [5]. Market Outlook - The company predicts continued high growth in the power battery business through 2026, unaffected by the reduction in purchase tax [6]. - Despite a 34% year-on-year increase in inventory to 80.2 billion yuan, the company maintains that inventory turnover days remain stable, indicating normal circulation [6]. - The company is advancing its sodium battery applications, which are expected to enhance energy density and expand the boundaries of electric vehicles [6]. Market Reaction - Following the earnings release, the market responded positively, with the company's A and H shares both experiencing gains [7].

每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——展望"十五五"|专访贺铿：必须改变以往将资金过度集中于房屋建设和基础 设施建设的倾向，更加突出民生领域投入 （记者 王晓波） 每经AI快讯，宁德时代发布公告称，2025年10月20日，宁德时代召开业绩说明会，与会投资者约1360 人，公司董事会秘书兼副总经理蒋理等人回答了投资者提出的问题。 ...

全国首个5A级智算中心——商汤临港智算中心内，一排排服务器高速运转，这些耗电巨大的算力机器正通过一套 智能系统，与宁德时代的储能设备和电网进行着实时"对话"，精准匹配每一度电的消耗。 2025年，被称为"全球AIDC建设元年"，国内外主要云厂商资本开支迎来放量增长。在这场算力竞赛的背后，是巨 大的能源需求——国际能源署预计，到2026年，全球数据中心总耗电量将突破800TWh，四年内增长75%。 当人工智能成为新生产力，承载算力的AIDC（人工智能数据中心）正从科技巨头的专属基建，演变为席卷产业的 投资狂潮，而手握储能技术钥匙的跨界者，正试图在这场变革中改写行业规则。 算力围城，AIDC 爆火的双重推力 AIDC，即人工智能数据中心，不同于传统IDC，是AI算力驱动下的升级形态，堪称智能时代的"算力工厂"。 2025年初，幻方发布的Deepseek-R1大模型，以极具竞争力的成本实现卓越性能，极大激发了国内AI产业的投资热 情，而AIDC的爆发性增长则主要源于两大核心驱动力。 一方面，随着大模型技术快速迭代，引发训练端和推理端算力需求的双重爆发。AI技术正从GenAI向Agentic AI、 Physical ...

许映童曾任华为光伏、昇腾计算业务总裁，带领团队多年"霸榜"全球光伏逆变器出货量第一名。2022年，他携众多华为骨干另立门户，杀入储能赛道。创办仅三年，思格新能源便在可堆叠分布 快速扩张带来较大资金缺口，思格新能源三年融资六轮，估值增加40倍，高瓴参与投资两轮，至IPO前浮盈大约3倍。IPO前，近三成员工持有思格新能源股权，价值超过4亿元。 来源：新财富杂志（ID：xcfplus） 作者：鲍有斌 成立3年就冲刺港股上市，70后创始人或带领诸多华为前同事，创造资本时速新案例。 其主角，就是许映童和他创办的思格新能源（上海）股份有限公司（简称"思格新能源"）。 思格新能源成立于2022年5月，2025年2月曾向港交所提交招股书，因6个月内未完成聆讯，招股书自动失效。9月，思格新能源再向港交所递表，保荐人是中信证券和法国巴黎银行。 疾步上市的思格新能源，业务聚焦于当下大热的新能源储能领域。据弗若斯特沙利文报告，2024年，思格新能源的储能产品出货量约为0.5千兆瓦时，占同期储能系统市场的0.2%，但在更细分 其财务数据也颇为惊艳。 2022年是其初创之年，思格新能源未产生收入。2023年、2024年，其分别实现收入0 ...

人民财讯10月21日电，宁德时代（300750）10月20日在业绩说明会上表示，在产品技术进步、经济性、 基础设施的完善、政策的多重驱动下，国内新能源商用车迎来快速增长，目前国内电动化率已达到 23%。公司正在打造重卡换电生态，加速重卡的电动化。公司商用动力电池出货快速增长、占比逐步提 升，目前占总出货的比例约两成。 ...