（原标题：时报观察｜监管升级将加速锂矿行业告别野蛮生长） 8月11日早间，全球动力电池龙头宁德时代一则通告，引爆了沉寂多时的锂电市场。其位于江西宜春的枧下窝锂矿区因采矿许可证到期暂停开采。 这场看似"程序性"的停产事件，有望成为中国新能源产业告别野蛮生长、走向高质量发展的关键转折。 今年7月，宜春市自然资源局要求8家涉锂矿山企业须在9月底前完成储量核实报告编制，宁德时代旗下宜春时代新能源矿业有限公司在8家涉锂矿 山企业之列。同时，藏格矿业旗下察尔汗盐湖一期1万吨/年的锂盐厂被当地政府要求停产整顿。该公司需要重新提交锂开采准证的申请，并在采 矿许可证全面合规后，方可申请复产。 锂矿开采审查监管升级的背后，是我国7月1日起正式实施的新版《矿产资源法》。新版法规进一步明确了所有战略性矿产资源要按照国家有关规 定实行保护性开采。自然资源部负责保护性开采的特定矿种开采的登记、审批，地方政府仅可在获得授权的前提下进行勘查、开采的登记、审 批。可以看出，监管政策的收紧，本质上是防止内卷式恶性竞争，强化市场优胜劣汰机制，畅通落后低效产能退出渠道。 责编：叶舒筠 枧下窝矿所在的宜春，以及察尔汗盐湖所在的青海，是我国云母提锂和盐 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report covers a wide range of sectors including finance, commodities, and energy - chemical. In the financial sector, factors such as tariff policies, central bank operations, and potential leadership changes in the Fed impact market trends. In the commodity sector, supply - demand relationships are influenced by natural conditions, production disruptions, and policy regulations. In the energy - chemical sector, factors like inventory levels, production capacity, and market demand determine the price trends of various products [13][27][66]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump stated that gold will not be subject to additional tariffs. After this confirmation, gold prices dropped significantly, especially COMEX gold futures. The spread between New York gold and London gold has returned to normal, and Shanghai gold followed London gold in the correction. Short - term gold prices lack the momentum to break through, and there is a risk of a pullback [13][14]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration solicited public opinions on the implementation regulations of the VAT law. The A - share market is highly bullish, with all positive factors fully reflected. It is recommended to have a balanced allocation [15][17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - There are new candidates for the successor to Powell. Trump downplayed the expectations for the US - Russia summit, so the meeting may not yield effective results, and the US dollar index is expected to rise in the short term [18][22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Nvidia and AMD are expected to pay 15% of their sales of AI chips to China to the US government in exchange for export licenses. The market is concerned about the upcoming CPI data, and there is a risk of a pullback in the US stock market [23][24]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 112 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 432.8 billion yuan on the day. The bond market is expected to be volatile in the short term, and long - position holders should pay attention to the rhythm [25][26]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Last week, the inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills decreased. Brazil's soybean exports in the first week of August increased compared to the same period last year. The excellent - good rate of US soybeans decreased by 1% to 68%. It is necessary to closely monitor the development of China - US relations and the USDA's August supply - demand report [27][29]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil inventory in July increased by 4.02% month - on - month, which was lower than market expectations. Indonesia plans to implement B50 in 2026 and may increase the DMO, which is positive for international palm oil prices. It is recommended to buy on dips for palm oil futures [30][34]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coke price in the Linfen market is rising. Some coal mines issued a notice on the trial implementation of the 276 - working - day production plan, which affects market sentiment. Short - term futures prices have limited upside potential, and it is necessary to pay attention to subsequent policies and demand changes [35][36]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Cuba's sugar production in the 2024/25 season dropped below 150,000 tons. The US tariff on South African imports has a serious impact on South African sugarcane growers. India's ethanol production's dependence on sugarcane has decreased, and the net sugar production in the 25/26 season may increase significantly [37][40]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The spot price of corn starch is weak. Starch enterprises'开机 rate increased last week, and inventory accumulated again. It is recommended to avoid trading the 09 contract and hold short positions in the 11 and 01 contracts while monitoring weather conditions [41][45]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - In July, automobile sales increased by 14.7% year - on - year. Steel prices are rising, and the market expects supply to decrease due to environmental protection restrictions. The short - term market is expected to be strong, but there are risks [42][43]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Precipitation in North China and the Huang - Huai region has alleviated the drought, but there is a risk of waterlogging. The 09 contract of corn futures has limited upside and downside potential, and it is recommended to avoid it. Hold short positions in the 11 and 01 contracts and pay attention to weather changes [44][45]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina) - The national alumina production capacity is in a state of over - supply. Newly - added production capacity is being gradually released, and the market is moving towards a more relaxed supply situation. It is recommended to wait and see [46]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The damage to Chile's El Teniente copper mine is more severe than initially expected. Lundin Mining's copper production in the second quarter increased by 11.8% year - on - year. Short - term copper prices are expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and pay attention to the internal - external reverse arbitrage strategy [47][50]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - GCL Integrated signed a 450 - million - yuan polysilicon purchase contract. Polysilicon inventory is accumulating, and production is expected to increase in August. Short - term polysilicon prices are expected to fluctuate between 45,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to have a bullish view on pullbacks and consider selling out - of - the - money put options [51][53]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The DMC market shows a co - existence of stable prices and price concessions. The supply of industrial silicon may increase in August, but due to the increase in demand from polysilicon, the market may still be in a state of de - stocking. It is recommended to buy on dips in the short term [54][55]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - On August 8, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $31.29 per ton. The social inventory of lead ingots continued to decline. It is recommended to hold long positions established at low levels and pay attention to the internal - external positive arbitrage opportunity [56][57]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The domestic social inventory of zinc ingots increased significantly, and the supply is expected to be high in August. The short - term trading of Shanghai zinc is difficult, and it is recommended to manage positions well for single - side trading and pay attention to the medium - term positive arbitrage opportunity [58][60]. 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - CATL's Yichun project has suspended mining after the expiration of the mining license on August 9. The short - term price of lithium carbonate is expected to remain strong, and it is recommended to look for buying opportunities on pullbacks and pay attention to the inter - month positive arbitrage opportunity [61][62]. 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - LME nickel inventory decreased by 936 tons on August 11. Short - term nickel prices are unlikely to decline significantly. In the medium term, it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [63][65]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The FOB price of Middle East frozen cargo decreased. International freight rates have risen significantly, and it is recommended to pay attention to the changes in spot prices and factory warehouse behavior and consider the far - month positive arbitrage opportunity [66][68]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Iraq raised the official selling price of Basra medium - grade crude oil to Asia in September. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [69][70]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The inventory of asphalt in refineries increased significantly, and the demand is still weak. It is recommended to wait and see [71][72]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotation of bottle chip factories changed little. The current industry's production cut extension is showing results, and the processing fee has slightly recovered. The absolute price of bottle chips mainly follows the fluctuation of polyester raw materials [73][74]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The urea market has different production - sales ratios in different regions. The short - term supply - demand pattern of urea is weak, and it is necessary to pay attention to the release rhythm of autumn fertilizer demand [75][76]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (PX) - The PX price rose on August 11. The unilateral price of PX is expected to fluctuate and adjust [77][78]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of pure benzene in East China ports decreased. The production of styrene is expected to remain high in the short term, and the start - up rate may decline in September. The current price of styrene is expected to fluctuate [79][80]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The spot price of PTA increased, and the spot basis strengthened. The demand side is still weak, and the supply side may see a slight recovery in processing fees. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [81][83]. 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong increased locally. The supply of caustic soda has increased, and the demand is average. The short - term price is expected to remain stable, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate [84][86]. 3.2.25 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The spot market of imported wood pulp showed a strengthening trend. The short - term pulp futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [87]. 3.2.26 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market was slightly adjusted. The current fundamentals of PVC are still weak, but macro - level positives and rising coal prices support the futures price. It is expected to fluctuate [88]. 3.2.27 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers increased slightly. The medium - term strategy for soda ash is to short on rallies, but there may be supply - side policy disturbances [89][90]. 3.2.28 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market changed slightly. The glass futures price was slightly stronger due to market sentiment. It is recommended to be cautious in single - side trading and focus on arbitrage strategies [91].

特朗普：黄金不会被加征关税！贵金属价格大跌 据CNBC最新消息，当地时间周一，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体上写道："黄金不会被征收关税！" 早上好，先来看下重要消息。 消息公布后，贵金属价格大跌。截至发稿，COMEX黄金期货跌2.78%，报3394.1美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货跌2.29%，报37.66美元/盎司。 上周五，美国海关与边境保护局宣布黄金进口需缴纳关税。根据这项裁定，1公斤和100盎司金条将适用特朗普于8月7日生效的按国家征收关税的措施。这 项裁定也导致贵金属价格创历史新高。 如果这项裁定得以维持，将对全球黄金市场产生深远影响。 有分析人士表示，长期来看，贵金属价格或震荡偏强运行。避险溢价与政策宽松共振推动黄金价格强势突破前高，技术面需重点观察能否站稳3500美元/ 盎司大关，3400美元/盎司附近大概率已构筑了坚实的技术基底；白银则跟随黄金涨势有效突破38.5美元/盎司的关键压力位，站稳该位置后，工业消费情 绪修复叠加金融属性传导，价格有望挑战39美元/盎司关口。 美国首都进入公共安全紧急状态 据央视新闻消息，当地时间11日，美国总统特朗普发表讲话称，将把华盛顿特区警察局置于联邦的直接管辖之下 ...

Core Viewpoint - The suspension of mining operations at the Jiangxi Yichun Jianshawa lithium mine due to the expiration of its mining license marks a significant turning point for China's new energy industry, indicating a shift towards high-quality development and regulatory tightening in the lithium market [1][2]. Group 1: Mining Operations and Regulatory Changes - The Jianshawa mine, one of the largest lithium mica mines in Yichun, is crucial as Yichun produces about 25% of China's lithium carbonate [1]. - The mine was acquired by CATL for 865 million yuan, with lithium oxide resources amounting to 2.6568 million tons, equivalent to approximately 6.57 million tons of lithium carbonate [1]. - The suspension of operations is part of a broader regulatory tightening, with the Yichun Natural Resources Bureau requiring eight lithium mining companies to complete resource verification reports by the end of September [2]. Group 2: New Regulations and Market Implications - The new Mineral Resources Law, effective from July 1, emphasizes protective mining for strategic mineral resources, with the Ministry of Natural Resources overseeing the registration and approval of specific mining activities [2]. - The tightening of regulations aims to prevent cutthroat competition in the lithium market and to facilitate the exit of inefficient production capacities [2].

Economic Indicators - In July, China's CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a 0.1% decline in June, while the core CPI rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking three consecutive months of growth [2] - The PPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 3.6% year-on-year, indicating a continued decline in industrial producer prices [2][3] Real Estate Market - New policies in Beijing have led to increased interest in properties outside the Fifth Ring Road, with significant upticks in viewings and sales [4][5] - The relaxation of purchase restrictions and increased housing fund loan limits are expected to stimulate demand in the previously stagnant market [4][5] Automotive Industry - GAC Aion plans to invest up to 30% in Huawei's automotive venture, aiming to leverage Huawei's technology to enhance its product offerings amid declining sales [6][7] - GAC Aion's sales have dropped significantly, with July figures showing a 24.6% year-on-year decline, prompting a renewed collaboration with Huawei [6][7] Technology Sector - Industrial Fulian reported a 35.58% year-on-year revenue increase, reaching 360.76 billion yuan, with net profit up 38.61% to 12.11 billion yuan, driven by AI-related business growth [8] - The company’s cloud computing segment saw server revenue growth exceeding 50%, indicating strong demand for AI infrastructure [8] Futures Market - Lithium carbonate futures surged by 8% to 81,000 yuan/ton following the shutdown of a major lithium mine by CATL, which could create a supply gap of over 6,000 tons in August [14][15] - The market's reaction reflects heightened sensitivity to supply disruptions, particularly in the context of previous strong price movements in other commodities [14][15] Stock Market Performance - On August 11, the stock market experienced a rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.34% and the ChiNext Index gaining 1.96%, driven by strong performance in lithium and AI-related stocks [16][17] - The market is approaching a significant psychological resistance level, with the Shanghai Composite Index nearing its October 2022 high [17]

Group 1 - Luxshare Technology is planning to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with discussions ongoing with relevant intermediaries [4] - The world's first "pregnancy robot" prototype is expected to be launched within a year, priced under 100,000 yuan, designed to replicate the human pregnancy experience [5] - The animated film "Wang Wang Mountain Little Monster" has achieved a box office of over 574 million yuan, setting a record for domestic 2D animated films in China [10] Group 2 - The China Automobile Circulation Association reported a 2.17% year-on-year increase in used car transactions for the first seven months, with a total of 11.23 million vehicles traded [10] - Zhiyuan Robotics has secured a multi-million yuan order from Fulian Precision, marking a significant commercial milestone for industrial embodied robots [11] - The Beijing Economic and Technological Development Zone aims to produce 10,000 embodied intelligent robots by the end of 2027, supported by ten comprehensive measures [14] Group 3 - Dell has denied rumors regarding an "exit plan timeline," stating that the information circulating is false [20] - Tesla is set to release a significant update to its Full Self-Driving (FSD) software next month, promising major improvements in handling rare road conditions [20] - Apple is reportedly preparing to launch a new low-cost MacBook with an A18 Pro processor, aiming to disrupt the laptop market with a starting price between $599 and $699 [31]

导语：据知情人士透露，宁德时代（CATL）已暂停位于江西省的一个重要锂矿的生产，暂停期至少为三个月。在业内人士看来，在行业产能过剩的背景 下，"宁王"大矿停产反而是利好。 近日，"全球动力电池龙头"宁德时代已在公司内部通报，位于江西省的梘下窝锂矿将临时停产。知情人士表示，停产的原因是公司未能成功续签已于8月 9日到期的矿业许可证。 锂行业近期受到现货市场、期货市场和股市极端波动的影响，其中梘下窝锂矿的运营尤其受到关注，原因是人们对其许可证续期的前景存在疑虑。 上周，交易员们用无人机飞越该矿区，希望了解目前的产出情况,预计该矿的产量将占全球锂矿产量的约3%。 第一位知情人士补充称，尽管公司仍在与政府部门谈判寻求许可证续期，但已为暂停生产数月的局面做好了准备。由于他们没有公开发言的授权，知情 人士要求保持匿名。 此次许可证问题和生产暂停的背景，是监管层正加大对多个行业产能过剩的管理力度，并加强对矿业运营的监管。然而，对于这个已经遭遇供应过剩困 扰超过两年的行业而言，供应链中这一重要环节的停产反而可能带来一定的利好。 宁德时代2024年电池矿产资源业务收入下滑了29%，这一降幅凸显了该公司在上游投资中所面临的挑战， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the lithium carbonate futures market has experienced a significant price increase due to the suspension of mining operations at the Jiangxiawo mine, operated by CATL, which has impacted market sentiment and prices [1][2][3] - The Jiangxiawo mine's carbon lithium supply is approximately 10,000 tons per month, and its suspension could lead to a potential supply reduction of about 6.8 million tons in the second half of the year, representing a decrease of 13% in domestic monthly supply [2] - Analysts suggest that while the current market sentiment is bullish, the actual impact of the mine's suspension on supply and demand dynamics needs to be closely monitored, as price increases may stimulate additional lithium resource supply [2][3] Group 2 - The suspension of the Jiangxiawo mine is expected to create a temporary supply gap, but the overall supply-demand balance may not fundamentally change unless there are significant shifts in demand or additional supply disruptions [2][3] - The current high prices of lithium carbonate may encourage high-cost mines and smelters to resume production, which could lead to an influx of overseas supply, potentially exerting downward pressure on prices if domestic policies do not impose capacity constraints [3] - Market analysts emphasize the importance of rational investor sentiment, warning against potential price corrections following the recent price surge driven by market emotions [1][2][3]

南财早新闻，早听早知道。 5、自然资源部宣布我国首批设立的5个国家公园全部完成确权登记。大熊猫、东北虎豹、海南热带雨 林、武夷山和三江源5个国家公园都有了"户口本"。 6、据网络平台数据，截至8月11日，电影《南京照相馆》2025暑期档票房超22亿元，刷新中国影史暑期 档历史片票房纪录。动画电影《浪浪山小妖怪》累计票房突破5.74亿元，刷新中国影史国产二维动画电 影票房纪录。 7、市场监管总局（国家标准委）批准发布《动力锂电池运输安全及多式联运技术要求》（GB/T 45915 —2025）国家标准，将于2026年2月1日起实施。 8、国铁集团：自7月1日暑运启动以来至8月10日，全国铁路累计发送旅客5.99亿人次，同比增长3.9%。 1、 8月11日，中国稀土集团、蚂蚁集团双双辟谣"中国稀土集团与蚂蚁集团、中国人民银行共建全球首 个稀土人民币稳定币"。蚂蚁集团称"从未与相关机构有此类计划"。中国稀土集团也发布声明称，从未 与相关机构、单位就所谓"稀土人民币稳定币"开展任何形式的合作、磋商或计划，称该信息系不法分子 恶意编造。 2、8月11日消息，中央结算公司决定，于即日起不再要求境外央行类机构提供协议签署承诺 ...

早上好，先来看下重要消息。 特朗普：黄金不会被加征关税！贵金属价格大跌 据CNBC最新消息，当地时间周一，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体上写道："黄金不会被征收关税！" 消息公布后，贵金属价格大跌。截至发稿，COMEX黄金期货跌2.78%，报3394.1美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货跌2.29%，报37.66美元/盎司。 上周五，美国海关与边境保护局宣布黄金进口需缴纳关税。根据这项裁定，1公斤和100盎司金条将适用特朗普于8月7日生效的按国家征收关税的措施。这 项裁定也导致贵金属价格创历史新高。 如果这项裁定得以维持，将对全球黄金市场产生深远影响。 有分析人士表示，长期来看，贵金属价格或震荡偏强运行。避险溢价与政策宽松共振推动黄金价格强势突破前高，技术面需重点观察能否站稳3500美元/ 盎司大关，3400美元/盎司附近大概率已构筑了坚实的技术基底；白银则跟随黄金涨势有效突破38.5美元/盎司的关键压力位，站稳该位置后，工业消费情 绪修复叠加金融属性传导，价格有望挑战39美元/盎司关口。 美国首都进入公共安全紧急状态 据央视新闻消息，当地时间11日，美国总统特朗普发表讲话称，将把华盛顿特区警察局置于联邦的直接管辖之下 ...