证券研究报告·行业研究·电力设备与新能源行业 需求强劲，价格弹性可期，开启新周期 --电动车2026年年度策略 首席证券分析师 ：曾朵红 执业证书编号：S0600516080001 联系邮箱：zengdh@dwzq.com.cn 联系电话：021-60199798 2025年12月14日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 备注：全文的"预计"如果没有特别说明，均为东吴证券研究所电新组预测 1 摘要： 2 ◆ 26年国内预计销量同增15%，欧洲销量持续高增，全球有望14%增长，考虑带电量提升，预计动力电池维持20%增长。25年国内 汽车消费政策持续+购置税退坡前抢装+出口强劲，全年预期30%增长至1676万辆，26年购置税退坡，预计Q1需求短期承压，且 我们预计26年"两会后"以旧换新补贴续力释放，有望托底26年销量，叠加重卡+出口强势高增，预计2026年新能源车销量1925 万辆，同增15%。欧洲补贴退坡消化完毕，叠加25H2起新车周期，预计全年34%增长至394万辆，26年英国、意大利等市场政策 加码，叠加新车刺激，预计维持30%增长。美国不确定性增加，短期需求放缓，新车型延期，预计25年销量增速放缓至4% ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights a new growth cycle for energy storage, projecting significant increases in installed capacity and demand in both domestic and international markets [2][5][32] - Domestic energy storage demand is driven by capacity pricing and innovative business models, with a projected installed capacity of 163 GWh in 2025, a 47% year-on-year increase, and 265 GWh in 2026, a 60% increase [2][32] - Internationally, the U.S. is experiencing a surge in demand due to AI data centers, while Europe and emerging markets are also showing strong growth potential [2][34] Group 2: Domestic Market Dynamics - In the domestic market, the introduction of capacity pricing subsidies by local governments has significantly boosted the internal rate of return (IRR) for energy storage projects, with IRR rates ranging from 6% to 12% [2][13] - The report notes that from January to November 2025, domestic energy storage bidding reached 190 GWh, a 138% increase year-on-year, with a total of 175 GWh awarded [2][27] - The cumulative installed capacity of domestic energy storage reached 72 GWh from January to October 2025, marking a 42% increase year-on-year [2][27] Group 3: International Market Trends - The U.S. is expected to see a demand for approximately 53 GWh of new energy storage installations in 2025, driven by AI data centers and peak load shortages [2][34] - In Europe, the energy storage market is projected to grow significantly, with an expected installation of 20 GWh in 2025, a 131% increase year-on-year, and 42 GWh in 2026, a 109% increase [2][34] - Emerging markets, particularly in the Middle East, Australia, Southeast Asia, and South America, are anticipated to contribute to a combined installation of 34 GWh in 2025, a 220% increase year-on-year [2][34] Group 4: Industry Chain and Competitive Landscape - The global demand for energy storage batteries is projected to reach 628 GWh in 2025, a 91% increase, and 663 GWh in 2026, a 61% increase [2][6] - The report indicates that leading companies in the energy storage sector, such as Tesla and BYD, are expected to strengthen their market positions as battery prices stabilize and production capacity increases [2][6] - The integration of large battery cells is expected to reduce system costs by 10-15%, enhancing the competitive advantage of leading firms [2][6] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends strong investment in large-scale energy storage companies, including Sungrow Power Supply, CATL, and BYD, as they are positioned to benefit from the anticipated growth in the market [2][6] - It also highlights the potential for growth in residential and commercial energy storage sectors, suggesting companies like DeYe and Airo Energy as promising investment opportunities [2][6]

11 月新能源汽车表现强劲，动力电池产销同环比保持增长 [Table_Industry] 动力锂电 动力锂电《碳酸锂迎来上涨，钠电产业加速落 地》2025.11.20 动力锂电《电动重卡市场驶入增长快车道》 2025.10.22 动力锂电《再读固态电池投资机会》2025.09.11 动力锂电《再读固态电池投资机会》2025.08.29 动力锂电《固态电池正负极&集流体发展方向》 2025.08.26 股 票 研 究 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 徐强(分析师) | 010-83939805 | xuqiang@gtht.com | S0880517040002 | | 牟俊宇(分析师) | 0755-23976610 | moujunyu@gtht.com | S0880521080003 | | 余玫翰(分析师) | 021-23185617 | yumeihan@gtht.com | S0880525040090 | | 李依雯(研究助理) | 021-231 ...

Group 1 - Since 2025, a total of 1,468 A-share listed companies have implemented share buybacks, with a cumulative buyback amount of 137.5 billion yuan [1] - Among these companies, 14 have repurchased more than 1 billion yuan, including Midea Group, Kweichow Moutai, CATL, XCMG, Muyuan Foods, COSCO Shipping Holdings, WuXi AppTec, Hikvision, BOE Technology Group, SF Holding, Sanan Optoelectronics, Sany Heavy Industry, Guotai Junan, and Haier Smart Home [1] - Midea Group leads in buyback amount, with a total of 11.545 billion yuan [1]

具体到各细分领域，2025年11月， A股迎来回落调整期，国内主要传统整车及经销商上市公司进入蛰伏；国内部分零部件企业市值环比普遍下调，整体呈 现"规模稳中有调、结构分化明显"的发展态势；国际主流汽车公司，通用市值实现攀升，德系巨头双涨；部分汽车新创公司市值继续展现出活力与波动 性。 国内主要传统整车及经销商上市公司市值： 同环比涨落现差异 | | | | 2025年11月全球汽车类上市公司市值TOP20 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 排序 | 公司名称 | 11月市值 (单位:亿元) | 环比 | 同比 | 较上月排位变化 | | 1 | 特斯拉 | 101191.09 | -6.36% | 25.79% | 持平 | | 2 | 幸田 | 22500.51 | 0.32% | 14.24% | 持平 | | 3 | 宁德时代 | 17017.92 | -4.07% | 47.95% | 持平 | | 4 | 小米集团 | 9537.15 | -7.85% | 47.93% | 持平 | | 5 | 比亚迪 | 8676.84 | -5.58% ...

内容概要：电芯外壳作为电池的"贴身铠甲"，是包裹并保护内部电化学材料的核心封装结构，承担着物 理防护、密封防泄漏、散热及抵抗内部膨胀等多重关键安全职能。其产业链条紧密联动：上游原材料以 铝材、钢材及新兴复合材料为主，中游由科达利、震裕科技等头部制造商主导，通过精密工艺生产方 形、圆柱、软包三大主流类型外壳；下游需求呈现"动力电池主导、储能加速崛起、消费电子稳定支 撑"的格局。外壳作为电芯结构件价值占比高达75%-80%的核心部件，技术路线直接决定电池包性能， 2024年市场规模约281亿元，预计2025年有望达到374亿元。从细分市场看，方形凭借"稳、广、廉"主导 主流市场，圆柱依托标准化与大圆柱技术快速崛起，软包则以高能量密度聚焦高端领域，形成差异化竞 争。未来发展趋势将紧密围绕极致安全、材料创新（如复合材料）及与电池系统更高程度的集成设计 （如适配CTC技术）展开，竞争核心正从精密制造升维至提供一体化解决方案的能力。 上市企业：科达利（002850.SZ）、震裕科技（300953.SZ）、斯莱克（300382.SZ）、凌云股份 （600480.SH）、宁德时代（300750.SZ）、和胜股份（002824 ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a significant increase on December 12, with trading volume exceeding 2 trillion yuan, reaching 2.12 trillion yuan, a rise of 233.7 billion yuan from the previous day [2][9] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.41% to 3889.35 points, while the ChiNext Index increased by 0.97% to 3194.36 points [2] Sector Performance - The power equipment sector saw a surge, with 19 stocks hitting the daily limit, including Zhongneng Electric and Tongguang Cable, which both rose by nearly 20% [6][7] - Technology stocks, particularly in controllable nuclear fusion, high-bandwidth memory, superconductors, and fourth-generation semiconductors, performed strongly, while consumer sectors lagged due to a lack of performance inflection points [4][9] - Among 31 first-level industries, 21 sectors recorded gains, with notable increases in non-ferrous metals, electronics, power equipment, machinery, communication, and defense industries, all exceeding 1% [5] Investment Sentiment - The central economic work conference has positively influenced market sentiment, signaling supportive macro policies that bolster investor confidence [9][10] - The adjustment of the CSI 300 index components has led to increased passive investment in technology and communication sectors, further enhancing market sentiment [10] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the A-share market may continue its upward trend, supported by ongoing positive policy signals and active performance in technology sectors [11][12] - Structural opportunities are expected to arise, particularly in technology, new energy, and communication sectors, as well as in areas benefiting from policy support and domestic substitution [12]

东南亚是中国清洁能源投资的主要目的地。在印尼，宁德时代正在建设投资约60亿美元的电动汽车电池 生态系统项目，建成后可创造大量就业岗位。在马来西亚和泰国，也有类似项目。中国还通过税收减免 和快速许可加快项目进展。这些举措推动了该地区对华贸易额翻番并快速升级区域能源网络。 中国支持中东和非洲国家逐步摆脱化石燃料。在沙特、摩洛哥、阿曼、尼日利亚和埃及，中国企业投 资、参与当地清洁能源项目。这些投资不仅降低能源成本、创造就业机会，还支持该地区各国雄心勃勃 的国家能源计划。 中国企业也将视线投向欧洲能源需求，尤其是电池领域。得益于宁德时代在德布勒森建设的巨大工厂， 匈牙利成为欧洲的新能源枢纽之一。在西班牙，宁德时代和斯泰兰蒂斯集团共同投资建设磷酸铁锂电池 工厂，该项目总投资41亿欧元，规划年产能可达50吉瓦时。 来源：环球时报 美国"CarbonCredits"网站12月11日文章，原题：中国1800亿美元清洁技术投资如何影响全球南方澳大利 亚智库气候能源金融发布的一份报告显示，自2023年初以来，中国企业在海外绿色技术领域的直接投资 总额已超过1800亿美元。这些中国企业正在生产全世界的大部分光伏板、电池和电动汽车。 ...

第 516 期 2025-12-10 焦点关注 债券市场高质量发展大会首设资产证券化专场会议 12月17日至19日，2025债券市场高质量发展大会将在郑州举办。其中，12月17日上午的首场先行论坛聚焦资产证券化主题，这也是债市大会创办两年来首次 单独设立资产证券化专场会议。 作为2025债券市场高质量发展大会的首场先行论坛，资产证券化专场会议旨在响应国家"盘活存量资产"政策要求，推动企业优化融资结构、拓宽融资渠道， 聚焦REITs、CMBS、保理债权ABS等资产盘活工具，邀请交易商协会专家、交易所专家以及投资机构、评级机构、证券公司等机构嘉宾，通过政策解读、 案例解析、圆桌对话等形式，助力企业"变资产为资本"。 河南力争2026年民企债券融资超200亿元 12月10日，大河财立方记者从2025河南省民营经济高质量发展系列主题新闻发布会上获悉，河南省委金融办将开展银行间债券市场增量提质行动，加强民营 企业发债主体培育和项目储备，建立主办银行机制，加大债券承销、投资力度，引导增信公司为民营企业发债提供信用增进，力争2026年民营企业债券融资 超200亿元。 财政部拟发行两期到期续作特别国债，规模合计7500亿元 ...

Core Insights - The Hong Kong IPO market has shown a strong recovery, with the listing of JD Industrial marking the 100th new stock in 2025, highlighting the market's resilience and attractiveness as an international financial center [1] Group 1: IPO Market Performance - In 2025, the Hong Kong IPO market raised over 270 billion HKD, significantly surpassing the previous year's figures and marking the second highest fundraising level in five years [2] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) is projected to lead globally in fundraising with approximately 36 billion USD (about 280.8 billion HKD) in 2025, outpacing the New York Stock Exchange's expected 20.5 billion USD [2] - Eight new stocks raised over 10 billion HKD each, with CATL leading at 41.006 billion HKD, setting a record for the largest IPO globally this year [2] Group 2: Large IPOs and Sector Contributions - Large IPOs have been a key driver of the Hong Kong market's resurgence, with over 20 A-share companies expected to debut in Hong Kong, raising over 170 billion HKD collectively [3] - The average fundraising size has increased by 137% compared to last year, reaching the second highest level in five years, with industrial and retail sectors dominating [3] Group 3: Technology Sector Dominance - Technology-related companies have emerged as the main force in the IPO wave, particularly those under Chapter 18A (unprofitable biotech companies) and Chapter 18C (specialized technology companies) [3] - In 2025, 14 companies listed under Chapter 18A, a 250% increase from 2024, focusing on innovative fields such as cancer treatment and gene editing [4] Group 4: Market Outlook and Predictions - Major institutions are optimistic about the 2026 IPO market, predicting 150 to 200 new listings and fundraising exceeding 300 billion HKD [6] - UBS forecasts that the Hong Kong market will maintain its position as the top fundraising venue, with several large IPOs expected in January [6] Group 5: Recommendations for Companies - Companies planning to go public are advised to embrace technology and build integrated financial governance systems to ensure data transparency and compliance with regulatory standards [7]