Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][11]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 19.4% in 2024, reaching 240.1 billion RMB, with a net profit growth of 20.0% to 38.4 billion RMB [2][3]. - The company has a strong customer base, including well-known brands like Nike and Adidas, which supports its robust performance [4][5]. - The company plans to increase its dividend payout ratio to 60.8%, indicating a focus on long-term cash return value [9][11]. - Despite short-term challenges due to new factory ramp-ups, the company is expected to maintain double-digit growth in 2025 due to strong order demand [8][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company sold 223 million pairs of sports shoes, a year-on-year increase of 17.5%, with an average selling price increase of approximately 1.8% to 107.5 RMB [3][5]. - The company reported a revenue of 64.9 billion RMB in the fourth quarter of 2024, with a net profit of 10.0 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.9% and 9.2% respectively [5][6]. Capacity Expansion - The company is actively expanding its production capacity with new factories in Vietnam and Indonesia, which are expected to start contributing to revenue in 2024 and 2025 [4][8]. - The company anticipates that the new factories will help meet the high demand for its products, despite potential short-term impacts on profit margins [11]. Valuation and Market Position - The company is currently valued at a relatively low level compared to the past year, with a projected price range of 73.1 to 79.5 RMB, corresponding to a PE ratio of 20-22x for 2025 [11][12]. - The company has a competitive edge in cost management and supply chain optimization, which positions it favorably in a volatile market environment [5][9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [2] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 240.06 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.4%, with a net profit of 38.41 billion yuan, up 20.01% year-on-year [5] - The company is actively expanding its production capacity, with a significant increase in order volume and new customer acquisition, entering a new expansion cycle [6] - The company has started a collaboration with Adidas in 2024, which is expected to contribute to stable order growth in 2025 [6] - The net profit margin is projected to remain high, with estimates of 16.0% for 2024 and 15.4% for Q4 2024, despite a slight decline due to capacity expansion [7] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 44.6 billion yuan and 51.7 billion yuan in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 17x and 15x [7] Financial Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 64.61 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 754 billion yuan [4] - The company reported a total revenue of 20.11 billion yuan in 2023, with projections of 24.00 billion yuan in 2024, 27.67 billion yuan in 2025, and 31.89 billion yuan in 2026, indicating a growth rate of 19.35% in 2024 [10] - The company's net profit for 2023 was 3.20 billion yuan, with forecasts of 3.84 billion yuan in 2024, 4.46 billion yuan in 2025, and 5.17 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 20.03% in 2024 [10] - The company's asset-liability ratio is 22.3%, indicating a strong financial position [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" investment rating for the company, indicating a forecasted stock price increase of 5% to 15% relative to the industry index over the next six months [6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 19% and a net profit growth of 20% in 2024, with projected revenues of 24.006 billion yuan and net profits of 3.841 billion yuan [1][4]. - The company has established a partnership with Adidas starting in 2024, which is anticipated to enhance its customer base and revenue streams [2]. - The company has expanded its production capacity with new factories in Vietnam and Indonesia, contributing to a 17.53% increase in sneaker sales in 2024, totaling 223 million pairs sold [3]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue**: The company reported revenues of 20.569 billion yuan in 2022, with a slight decline to 20.114 billion yuan in 2023, followed by a projected increase to 24.006 billion yuan in 2024 [1]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit was 3.228 billion yuan in 2022, slightly decreased to 3.200 billion yuan in 2023, and is expected to rise to 3.841 billion yuan in 2024 [1]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: The EPS is projected to increase from 2.77 yuan in 2022 to 3.29 yuan in 2024 [1][4]. - **Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio**: The P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 23.4 in 2022 to 19.6 in 2024, indicating improved valuation [1][4]. Production and Market Expansion - The company has successfully launched three new factories in Vietnam and is expanding its production capabilities in Indonesia and China to mitigate geopolitical risks [3]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its customer structure and expanding production capacity in response to customer demand and growth plans [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [2] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 240.06 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.4%, with a net profit of 38.41 billion yuan, up 20.01% year-on-year [5] - The company is actively expanding its production capacity, with a significant increase in order volume and new customer acquisition, entering a new expansion cycle [6] - The company has started a partnership with Adidas in 2024, which is expected to contribute to stable order growth in 2025 [6] - The net profit margin is projected to be 16.0% for 2024, with a slight decrease in Q4 due to capacity expansion effects [7] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 44.6 billion yuan and 51.7 billion yuan in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 17 times and 15 times [7] Financial Summary - The latest closing price is 64.61 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 754 billion yuan [4] - The company forecasts revenue growth rates of 19.35% in 2024, 15.26% in 2025, and 15.26% in 2026 [10] - The projected net profit for 2024 is 38.41 billion yuan, with an expected increase to 44.57 billion yuan in 2025 and 51.73 billion yuan in 2026 [10][12] - The company maintains a low debt-to-asset ratio of 22.3% [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [7]. Core Views - The company is expected to see revenue growth driven by the collaboration with Adidas, which began mass production in September 2024 [2]. - The company reported a revenue of 24.01 billion with a year-on-year increase of 19.4% for 2024, and a net profit of 3.84 billion, up 20.0% [1]. - The company has diversified its client base, primarily consisting of publicly listed companies, which supports stable growth [3]. - New factories in Vietnam and Indonesia are expected to enhance production capacity and mitigate geopolitical risks [2]. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are adjusted to 24.00 billion, 26.89 billion, and 30.92 billion respectively, with corresponding net profits of 3.84 billion, 4.39 billion, and 5.05 billion [5]. - The company sold 223 million pairs of sports shoes in 2024, reflecting a 17.5% increase, with an average price of 107.65 yuan per pair, up 1.5% [1]. - The overall gross margin is expected to remain stable despite the initial impact of new factory ramp-ups [4]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 3.29 yuan, 3.76 yuan, and 4.33 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is forecasted to be 21x, 18x, and 16x for the same years [5]. - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 22.07 billion in 2024 to 27.59 billion by 2026 [13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The new factory's efficiency ramp-up is expected to impact Q4 earnings, but the outlook for Adidas orders is optimistic. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.33 billion yuan, with a payout ratio of approximately 60%, up from 44% in 2023. Revenue for 2024 is projected at 24 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.4%, while net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise by 20.0% to 3.84 billion yuan [5][7]. Financial Summary - Revenue and profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted, with net profit estimates now at 3.84 billion yuan for 2024, 4.34 billion yuan for 2025, and 5.07 billion yuan for 2026. The previous estimates were 3.90 billion yuan, 4.56 billion yuan, and 5.30 billion yuan respectively. The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 20.1 for 2024, 17.8 for 2025, and 15.3 for 2026 [5][8]. Sales and Orders - In 2024, the company expects sales volume to grow by 17.53% to 223 million pairs, with an average selling price of 107.7 yuan. The sales volume for each quarter is projected to be 46 million, 62 million, 55 million, and 60 million pairs respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 18.4%, 18.8%, 23.9%, and 10.5% [6][7]. Capacity Expansion - The company is actively expanding production capacity in response to order demand, with four finished shoe factories expected to commence operations in 2024. Additionally, new factories in Sichuan, China, and Indonesia are set to begin production in February 2025. The total capacity from the Indonesian factories is projected to reach 50-60 million pairs per year [7][8]. Profitability Metrics - The company's net profit margin for 2024 is projected to be 16%, with a slight increase from 15.9% in 2023. The net profit margins for each quarter in 2024 are expected to be 16.5%, 16.3%, 16%, and 15.4% respectively. The increase in the dividend payout ratio is anticipated to lead to a higher tax rate compared to 2023, but the net profit margin is expected to remain stable due to effective management [8]. Valuation Ratios - The company's P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 23.9 in 2022 to 15.3 by 2026, indicating an improving valuation as earnings grow. The P/B ratio is expected to decline from 5.9 in 2022 to 3.2 in 2026, reflecting a more attractive valuation over time [8].

证券研究报告 | 2025年03月13日 华利集团（300979.SZ） 2024 年收入增长 19%，近期新工厂加速投产 | 公司研究·公司快评  | |  | 纺织服饰·纺织制造 | 投资评级：优于大市（维持）  | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 丁诗洁 | 0755-81981391 | dingshijie@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520040004 | | 证券分析师： | 刘佳琪 | 010-88005446 | liujiaqi@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523070003 | 事项： 公司公告：2025 年 3 月 12 日，公司公布 2024 年业绩快报及分红预案，2024 年营收同比增长 19.4%至 240.1 亿元；归母净利润同比增长 20.0%至 38.4 亿元；扣非归母净利润同比增长 18.9%至 37.8 亿元。公司拟每 10 股派发 20 元，分红率达 60.8%。 国信纺服观点：1）公司客户结构优质订单饱满，2024 年再次实现好于同行的业绩；分量价看，2024 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase of over 15% compared to the CSI 300 index in the next six months [10][11]. Core Views - The company's 2024 performance report shows revenue of 24 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.35%, and a net profit of 3.84 billion yuan, up 20% [4]. - The company is expected to benefit from new orders from Adidas, which began production in September 2024, contributing to revenue growth [6]. - The report highlights the company's stable partnerships with major brands like Nike and Converse, alongside successful new customer acquisition [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a net profit margin of 16.0% for 2024, with a proposed dividend of 20 yuan per 10 shares, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 61% [4][5]. - In Q4 2024, revenue was 6.5 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.9% increase, while the net profit was 1 billion yuan, a 9.3% increase [5]. Market Position and Expansion - The company is expanding its production capacity with four new factories launched in 2024, including three in Vietnam and one in Indonesia [6]. - The report anticipates that the new factory in China and the new site in Indonesia will begin production in early 2025, aligning with order growth [6]. Profitability Forecast - The projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 3.84 billion yuan, 4.43 billion yuan, and 5.17 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 20, 17, and 15 [7][8]. - The company is expected to maintain steady growth driven by a combination of stable existing customers and rapid growth from new clients [7].

2025 年 03 月 13 日 公司点评 买入/维持 华利集团(300979) 目标价: 昨收盘:64.61 (20%) (6%) 8% 22% 36% 50% 24/3/13 24/5/24 24/8/4 24/10/15 24/12/26 25/3/8 华利集团 沪深300 ◼ 股票数据 24 年业绩快报点评：业绩符合预期，期待 Adidas 订单新增量 ◼ 走势比较 | 总股本/流通(亿股) | 11.67/11.67 | | --- | --- | | 总市值/流通(亿元) | 754/753.99 | | 12 个月内最高/最低价 | 85/55.31 | | (元) | | 相关研究报告 <<24Q3 财报点评：量增驱动稳健增 长，积极扩产、期待新客放量>>-- 2024-11-03 <<华利集团 24H1 财报点评：业绩表 现亮眼，订单饱满扩产提速>>-- 2024-08-26 <<华利集团 24Q1 财报点评：表现超 预期，看好全年弹性释放>>--2024- 04-28 证券分析师：郭彬 E-MAIL：guobin@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190519090001 证券分析师 ...

2025 年 03 月 13 日 公司点评 买入/维持 华利集团(300979) 目标价: 昨收盘:64.61 24 年业绩快报点评：业绩符合预期，期待 Adidas 订单新增量 ◼ 走势比较 (20%) (6%) 8% 22% 36% 50% 24/3/13 24/5/24 24/8/4 24/10/15 24/12/26 25/3/8 华利集团 沪深300 ◼ 股票数据 | 总股本/流通(亿股) | 11.67/11.67 | | --- | --- | | 总市值/流通(亿元) | 754/753.99 | | 12 个月内最高/最低价 | 85/55.31 | | (元) | | 相关研究报告 <<24Q3 财报点评：量增驱动稳健增 长，积极扩产、期待新客放量>>-- 2024-11-03 <<华利集团 24H1 财报点评：业绩表 现亮眼，订单饱满扩产提速>>-- 2024-08-26 <<华利集团 24Q1 财报点评：表现超 预期，看好全年弹性释放>>--2024- 04-28 证券分析师：郭彬 E-MAIL：guobin@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190519090001 证券分析师 ...