中信证券（600030）(06030)发布公告，将于2026年2月13日派发截至2025年6月30日止六個月的中期股 息每10股2.9元。 ...

中信证券研报表示，2025Q3海外家电公司业绩延续稳健，整体收入小幅增长、盈利能力分化。我们分 地区来看：1）北美需求偏弱，消费者偏好性价比产品，价格承压；户用暖通仍在去库、企业盈利分 化；商用暖通受数据中心高景气驱动，产品结构优化，表现亮眼。2）欧洲弱复苏延续，但需求仍处历 史偏低位，热泵需求或是亮点。3）新兴市场表现分化，拉美在高利率、通胀、极端天气影响下需求偏 弱、竞争加剧，中东地区受大型项目与数据中心带动需求强劲。 ...

每经AI快讯，中信证券研报表示，2025Q3海外家电公司业绩延续稳健，整体收入小幅增长、盈利能力 分化。我们分地区来看：1)北美需求偏弱，消费者偏好性价比产品，价格承压；户用暖通仍在去库、企 业盈利分化；商用暖通受数据中心高景气驱动，产品结构优化，表现亮眼。2)欧洲弱复苏延续，但需求 仍处历史偏低位，热泵需求或是亮点。3)新兴市场表现分化，拉美在高利率、通胀、极端天气影响下需 求偏弱、竞争加剧，中东地区受大型项目与数据中心带动需求强劲。 ...

中信证券研报称，考虑到AI投资规模持续增大+模糊的投资回报率，关于"AI泡沫"的讨论已成为市场无 法回避的话题，结合算法进步、核心公司经营策略、宏观流动性等层面核心要素的推演，未来12个月， 我们判断，AI产业的走向主要存在三种可能情形，我们将OpenAI陷入经营危机、AI产业投资节奏放缓 视为基准情形（60%概率），对于当下的AI产业而言，这可能是最为合理、可能的情形。而短期AI算法 实现实质性突破、美国经济通胀反弹&泡沫破灭则分属假设情形的两个极端，我们均将其视为小概率事 件，对应概率均为20%。面对短期AI技术进步、宏观预期的高度不确定性，在AI领域，我们仍建议投资 者坚持"边走边看""逆向投资"的基本思路，同时逐步加大应用侧（互联网、应用软件）配置权重。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing discussions about the "AI bubble" are becoming unavoidable in the market due to the increasing scale of AI investments and ambiguous investment returns. The future of the AI industry over the next 12 months is predicted to have three potential scenarios, with a 60% probability assigned to OpenAI facing operational crises and a slowdown in AI investment rhythm, while significant breakthroughs in AI algorithms and a rebound in U.S. inflation are considered low-probability events at 20% each [1][2]. Scenario Analysis - **Scenario 1 (20% Probability): Substantial Breakthrough in AI Algorithms** - Recent advancements, such as Google's Gemini 3, have not led to a fundamental breakthrough but rather an extension of existing AGI model capabilities. The skepticism regarding the limitations of LLMs is growing, indicating that significant breakthroughs may require new paths outside the current technological framework [3]. - AI application usage among S&P 500 companies has surpassed 60%, but the application scenarios remain limited to areas like coding and customer service, with significant constraints in high-certainty and complex logic fields [3]. - **Scenario 2 (60% Probability): OpenAI Facing Operational Crisis** - OpenAI, as a leader in the GenAI wave, is experiencing a precarious situation as competitors like Google have surpassed its AGI model capabilities. Potential short-term impacts include a risk of losing paid users for ChatGPT, which could undermine the company's commercial foundation [4]. - OpenAI's ability to raise funds in the primary market is expected to decline significantly, leading to risks in fulfilling its massive orders (valued at $2 trillion). If OpenAI's business suffers, there may be a risk of downward revisions in performance expectations for the semiconductor and hardware sectors, while the internet and application software sectors could benefit [4]. - **Scenario 3 (20% Probability): U.S. Inflation Rising and "Bubble" Bursting** - Historical data suggests that significant capital expenditures can lead to resource crowding out in other economic sectors, structural inflation, and tightening financial liquidity, which are often key factors in the bursting of industry bubbles. The recovery in demand for consumer electronics and traditional data centers, along with rising capacity utilization rates in semiconductor and hardware companies, is increasing the structural inflation risks associated with AI CAPEX [5][6]. - The combination of a robust fiscal policy and loose monetary policy, alongside resilient inflation data, indicates that a rebound in U.S. inflation in the second half of 2026 is a risk that cannot be ignored. If inflation data rises, it could lead to liquidity tightening that may burst the AI bubble and push the U.S. economy into a brief recession [6]. Investment Recommendations - Given the high uncertainty surrounding short-term AI technological advancements and macroeconomic expectations, it is advised that investors adopt a "watch and see" approach and consider "contrarian investing" strategies while gradually increasing allocations in application sectors such as the internet and application software [1][7].

Core Insights - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the performance of overseas home appliance companies will continue to be stable in Q3 2025, with slight overall revenue growth and differentiated profitability [1] Regional Analysis - North America shows weak demand, with consumers favoring cost-effective products, leading to price pressure; residential HVAC is still in destocking, and corporate profitability is varied; commercial HVAC is performing well due to high demand from data centers and product structure optimization [1] - Europe is experiencing a weak recovery, but demand remains at historically low levels, with heat pump demand potentially being a highlight [1] - Emerging markets show mixed performance; Latin America faces weak demand due to high interest rates, inflation, and extreme weather, along with intensified competition; the Middle East benefits from strong demand driven by large projects and data centers [1]

每经AI快讯，中信证券研报表示，10月能繁母猪去化加速。短期来看，行业供给端持续维持宽松局 面，猪价震荡承压，后续去产能有望持续，加持2026H2以后周期景气及持续时间。继续推荐：1）强创 现和分红能力的头部企业；2）成本领先企业；3）并购增量的企业。 ...

中信证券研报称，按照惯例，12月政治局会议将作为中央经济工作会议的前奏，随后召开中央经济工作 会议部署2026年经济工作。在房地产市场量价齐跌、投资与土地出让收入大幅收缩的背景下，会议预计 将围绕"稳预期、稳市场、防风险"加力部署。一线城市限购优化、降低购房成本等稳需求措施有望出 台；短期内可能增长更多来自于存量盘活，政策上将延续围绕今年城市工作会议中提到的高质量开展城 市更新展开。同时，会议可能提出房地产稳定基金、保障性住房收储等举措，以缓解库存压力、稳定房 企流动性。在中长期层面，户籍制度改革、土地制度改革、租购并举住房体系完善等方向有望成为房地 产长效机制的重要组成部分。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the destocking of breeding sows accelerated in October, leading to a sustained loose supply situation in the industry, which is putting pressure on pork prices. However, the ongoing destocking is expected to support the cyclical recovery starting in the second half of 2026 [1]. Group 1: Industry Supply and Pricing - The supply side of the industry continues to maintain a loose situation, resulting in fluctuations and pressure on pork prices [1]. - The ongoing destocking process is anticipated to continue, which may enhance the cyclical prosperity and its duration post-2026 H2 [1]. Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies with strong cash flow and dividend capabilities [1]. - It also suggests investing in cost-leading companies [1]. - Additionally, companies that are involved in mergers and acquisitions for growth are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [1].

（文章来源：第一财经） 中信证券研报表示，近期，美国宣布"创世纪计划"，旨在开启人工智能加速创新，聚焦六大领域，确保 能源主导地位，提高劳动力生产力，并成倍提高纳税人对研发的投资回报，从而进一步巩固美国的技术 主导地位和全球战略领导地位。我们认为，上述计划显示了AI在全球科技竞争中的重要地位，全球AI 产业仍在高速增长阶段。 ...