投资者持续关注全球贸易格局，周五美股延续本周涨势： 美股盘前，据上海证券报，外交部发言人郭嘉昆回应称中美并未在谈判，驳斥美方混淆视听的说法。特朗普则 表示将针对不同国家设定关税，一些国家"可能会发回来要求调整，我会考虑"。受此影响，美股开盘震荡，标 普500一度较开盘下跌0.6%。 美股早盘，美国密歇根大学消费者信心公布数据，处于历史最低位附近，长期通胀预期创1991年以来最高。数 据公布后，今年美国经济放缓的预期升温，拖累美国国债收益率走低。美国10年期国债收益率保持大约3.5个 基点的跌幅，10年期美国国债收益率一度逼近4.25%。 美股尾盘，特朗普声称不太可能再批准90天的关税暂停，标普500指数涨幅收窄。道琼斯指数和小型股指数当 日表现不佳，收盘时勉强回落至持平。受科技股提振，纳斯达克指数跑赢大盘。 本周伊始市场承压，投资者普遍处于"抛售美元资产"的交易中。然而，受特朗普贸关税态度的缓和，以及他不再威 胁要罢免美联储主席鲍威尔的影响，风险偏好情绪回归。本周油价低位反弹收盘持平，比特币价格自2月份以来首次 突破 9.5万美元。避险品种黄金价格在周中创下3500美元的历史新高后，回撤至3300美元上方。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The core education business shows steady revenue growth, while the overseas and cultural tourism businesses are dragging down profits [1] - For FY25Q3, the company achieved net revenue of $1.183 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of $87 million, a year-on-year increase of 0.1% [5][6] Revenue Performance - FY25Q3 net revenue (excluding revenue from self-operated products and live e-commerce) was $1.038 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.2%, aligning with previous guidance [6] - Breakdown of revenue sources includes: - Overseas exam preparation business: revenue grew by 7.1% - Overseas consulting business: revenue grew by 21.4% - Domestic exam preparation for adults and university students: revenue grew by 17.0% - New education business: revenue grew by 34.5% [6] Profitability Analysis - FY25Q3 operating profit margin was 10.5%, up from 9.4% in the same period last year; Non-GAAP operating profit margin was 12.0%, compared to 11.8% [8] - The report anticipates that the core education business's Non-GAAP operating profit margin will improve year-on-year in FY25Q4, despite pressures from the overseas high-end one-on-one business and cultural tourism [8] Future Outlook - The company expects FY25Q4 net revenue (excluding self-operated products and live e-commerce) to be between $1.009 billion and $1.037 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 10%-13% [7] - The revenue growth rate is expected to slow down due to increased base effects and macroeconomic uncertainties [7] Financial Forecasts - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for FY2025-2027 to $406 million, $536 million, and $679 million, respectively, reflecting a conservative outlook [9] - Corresponding EPS for FY2025-2027 is projected to be $0.25, $0.33, and $0.42, with current stock price corresponding to P/E ratios of 19x, 14x, and 11x [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company has shown a cautious outlook on its study abroad business and future revenue projections, focusing on improving operational efficiency [1][3] - Non-selective business revenue increased by 21.2%, slightly exceeding management guidance, while total revenue for FY2025Q3 was $1.183 billion, down 2.0% year-on-year [1][8] - The company plans to maintain a 20-25% capacity expansion for FY2025, with a focus on improving outlet utilization [2][13] Revenue and Profitability - For FY2025Q3, the company reported a net profit of $113 million, adjusted down by 14.3% due to increased tax rates [1][8] - The deferred revenue at the end of February 2025 was $1.75 billion, reflecting a 15.0% year-on-year increase, although the growth rate has slowed compared to previous quarters [1][8] - The gross margin improved to 55.1%, up 8.5 percentage points, primarily due to a decrease in the proportion of low-margin e-commerce business [2][19] Business Segments Performance - K9 education new business grew by 35%, while high school training showed strong demand with a 19% increase [2][12] - The study abroad training and consulting segments grew by 7% and 21%, respectively, but are facing downward pressure due to declining consumer spending and international relations [2][12] - E-commerce and cultural tourism revenues dropped by 49% due to the divestment of "With Huixing" [2][12] Future Outlook - For FY2025Q4, the company expects non-selective revenue to grow by 10-13%, with continued pressure on study abroad demand and a high base effect in K12 education [3][21] - The company has initiated a share buyback program, having repurchased $696 million worth of shares, and plans to adopt more diversified shareholder return methods [3][21] - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been lowered to $470 million, $570 million, and $690 million, respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment of 3%, 14%, and 22% [3][22]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating on New Oriental-S (09901) and raises the target price to HKD 42 based on the sum-of-the-parts valuation method [1] - The firm expects investor confidence to gradually improve if the company achieves its profit margin expansion guidance for the May quarter, with the valuation multiple for New Oriental's core business projected to increase from the current 1x 12-month forward P/E [1] - Management emphasized cost control and operational efficiency during the February quarter earnings call, leading to an upward revision of non-GAAP operating profit expectations for FY25-27 by 7-14% [1] Group 2 - New Oriental's February quarter revenue and EPS fell short of expectations primarily due to a significant decline in revenue from Dongfang Zhenxuan (01797), which dropped by 59% year-on-year [2] - The firm has lowered its FY25 expectations for Dongfang Zhenxuan and adjusted the target price based on P/E to HKD 7.8 from HKD 8.2, but anticipates that Dongfang Zhenxuan will start contributing positively to group profits from the August quarter [2]

Core Viewpoint - New Oriental's Q3 FY2025 financial results show a slight decline in total revenue but significant growth in specific educational segments, indicating a shift towards new business models and services [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q3 FY2025 was $118.3 million, a 2% decrease year-over-year [1][2]. - Net profit reached $87.3 million, reflecting a 0.1% increase compared to the previous year [1][2]. - Adjusted diluted earnings per ADS were $0.70, down from $0.79 in the same quarter last year, marking a 12.1% decline [1][2]. Business Segments - Excluding revenue from self-operated products and live e-commerce, New Oriental's revenue was $103.8 million, showing a 21.2% increase year-over-year, driven by growth in new educational services [1][2]. - Revenue from overseas exam preparation and consulting grew approximately 7.1% and 21.4% respectively, while domestic exam preparation for adults and university students saw a 17% increase [2][3]. New Business Growth - New educational services recorded a robust 34.5% revenue growth, with non-academic tutoring expanding into nearly 60 cities and attracting about 408,000 enrollments [3]. - The cultural tourism business experienced an impressive 85% revenue growth, contributing over 50% of its income from services offered to K-12 and university students across 55 cities [3]. Technological Investments - The company invested $29.7 million in enhancing its OMO (Online-Merge-Offline) teaching system, leveraging AI technologies to develop innovative educational solutions [3]. - New Oriental is utilizing a combination of open-source large language models and proprietary AI technology to create tools for grading, assessment, and personalized learning plans, aimed at improving student performance and operational efficiency [3]. Management Insights - The Executive Chairman emphasized a strategy focused on sustainable long-term growth through improved product quality and operational efficiency [4]. - The CEO highlighted ongoing efforts to monitor teaching space layouts and enhance the application of AI in education, aiming to boost product competitiveness through innovative technology [5].

Core Viewpoint - New Oriental's Q3 financial report shows a mixed performance with a revenue increase but underlying concerns about future growth and profitability [2][3][6] Financial Performance - For the first three fiscal quarters of 2025, New Oriental reported a cumulative revenue of $3.657 billion, a 15.1% increase from $3.177 billion in the same period last year [2] - The net profit for the same period reached $364 million, reflecting a 29.0% year-on-year growth, significantly outpacing revenue growth [2] - In Q3, net revenue decreased by 2% to $1.183 billion, which was below market expectations [3][8] - Excluding the impact of its e-commerce and live-streaming business, revenue actually increased by 21.2% to $1.038 billion [7] Business Segments - The core education business showed structural growth, with significant revenue increases in overseas exam preparation (7.1%) and domestic exam preparation for adults and college students (17%) [7] - New Oriental's new education business maintained strong growth, with a revenue increase of 34.5% in the quarter [7] Market Reactions - Following the earnings report, New Oriental's stock performance was mixed, with a decline of 0.68% in the US market and a rise of over 5.6% in Hong Kong, indicating divergent investor sentiment [3] - Several financial institutions, including Macquarie and JPMorgan, have lowered their target prices for New Oriental following the earnings report [4][13] Future Guidance - New Oriental's management has indicated that profit pressures are expected to ease in the coming quarters due to cost-cutting measures [10][11] - The company forecasts a revenue growth of 10%-13% for Q4 of fiscal 2025, which is lower than market expectations [11][13] Cash Position - As of the end of February, New Oriental had a total cash and short-term investments of $4.4 billion, with $2.68 billion available for discretionary use after accounting for deferred revenue [17]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential risks of forced delisting of Chinese companies listed in the U.S. and restrictions on U.S. investments in Chinese assets, highlighting the historical context and possible implications for the market [1][2][3]. Group 1: Historical Context of Delisting and Investment Restrictions - The U.S. government previously initiated a delisting crisis for Chinese companies from 2020 to 2022 due to the HFCAA, which required companies to meet PCAOB audit standards [8][11]. - The crisis peaked when 150 Chinese companies were placed on a "pre-delisting" list, leading to an average stock price drop of 60% for 19 tracked companies [11][12]. - Although the delisting risk was mitigated through negotiations, some companies like China Mobile were still forced to delist during the tensions [12]. Group 2: Current Risks and Potential Impacts - Recent statements from U.S. officials suggest the possibility of using the forced delisting of Chinese companies as a negotiation tool, indicating a "black swan" risk that should not be ignored [2][3]. - The article outlines the potential impact on various Chinese companies if forced delisting or investment restrictions were to occur, emphasizing that the likelihood of such actions is currently low but not negligible [2][3]. Group 3: Company-Specific Analysis - A table lists various Chinese companies, their U.S. ticker symbols, market capitalization, and the percentage of shares held by U.S. investors, indicating varying levels of risk exposure [3]. - Companies like Pinduoduo and Didi, which are solely listed in the U.S., would face the most significant impact if delisted, while those with dual listings may experience less severe consequences [20][21]. Group 4: Comparison with Previous Delisting Crisis - The current delisting risk is perceived to be more uncertain than the previous crisis, as it may involve more significant political stakes and core interests [18][19]. - The dependency of Chinese companies on U.S. markets has decreased, with the average trading volume in Hong Kong rising from 10% to 34% since March 2022 [20][38]. Group 5: Response Strategies for Companies - Companies that have established dual listings can transition their shares to continue trading in Hong Kong without significant legal hurdles [23][39]. - For companies solely listed in the U.S., there is a pressing need to convert to a primary listing in Hong Kong before any potential delisting occurs [23][39]. Group 6: Broader Implications of Investment Restrictions - If the U.S. government expands restrictions on investments in Chinese companies, the impact would be more severe than a delisting, leading to permanent capital outflows and potential panic selling [27][28]. - The average U.S. investor ownership in tracked Chinese companies is approximately 39.9%, which could lead to significant market disruptions if restrictions are enacted [28][30].

自4月3日美国总统特朗普正式宣布"对等关税"以来，中美之间多次互相提高关税，目前双方相互加征的关税都已在100%以上。且随着贸易摩擦的升温，中美两国 之间的角力有着进一步向其他领域扩散的风险。 值得关注的是：① 近日美国财政部长曾表示， 不排除以在美上市的中概公司强制退市，作为两国间谈判的筹码之一；② 2月21日， 白宫发布了"America First Investment Policy"备忘录中，也提及了在一定情况下限制美国资金投资于部分中国公司/资产的可能性。 虽然上述两条潜在的风险截至目前仅停留在口头阶段，美国政府尚没有进行任何实质性的动作。但历史上，中概退市威胁并非没有先例： 2020年~2022年间美国政 府就曾以HFCAA法案下，无法获得中概上市公司的审计监管权的原因，正式推进过中概在美退市。 尽管后续中美两国政府达成了协议，中概从美股全面退市并没真正发生，但仍有中移动等公司在争端期间被美政府强制退市，后有如中国石油等在争端缓解后仍 主动选择退市。 由此可见，无论是 强制中概从美股退市、抑或禁止美国资金投资中国资产，虽然最终落地的概率应当非常小，但属于存在先例、不能视而不见的"黑天鹅"风险。 海 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to New Oriental Education Technology (9901 HK) with a target price of HKD 46.00, indicating a potential upside of 29.8% from the current price of HKD 35.45 [1][4][14]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the overseas business may still face pressure, but cost reduction and efficiency improvements are expected to manifest in the upcoming quarter [1]. - For the fiscal year 2025, the company is projected to achieve revenue growth of 12.9% and net profit growth of 21.5% [2][9]. - The core education segment contributed 57% of total revenue, with new business revenue growing by 35%, accounting for 27% of total revenue [8][9]. Financial Overview - Revenue for fiscal year ending May 31, 2023, was USD 2,998 million, with projections of USD 4,314 million for 2024 and USD 4,871 million for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of -3.5%, 43.9%, and 12.9% respectively [2][15]. - Net profit for 2023 was USD 259 million, expected to rise to USD 381 million in 2024 and USD 457 million in 2025, with corresponding earnings per share of USD 0.15, USD 0.23, and USD 0.28 [2][15]. - The company’s operating profit margin is projected to be 12.1% for 2025, slightly down from 13.1% in 2024 [8]. Quarterly Performance - In the third quarter of fiscal year 2025, the company reported a revenue of USD 1,183 million, a 2% decrease year-on-year, with adjusted net profit of USD 102 million [8][9]. - The report anticipates a 13% year-on-year increase in core education revenue for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025, amounting to USD 1,036 million [8]. Valuation - The current price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 12 times for 2025, with an expected profit growth of over 15%, indicating an attractive valuation [8][9]. - The report maintains a target price of HKD 46.00, based on a 15 times price-to-earnings ratio for the education services business [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to see a bottoming out of its performance, with a positive outlook on profit elasticity for the full year [1]. - The core K12 business shows steady revenue growth, and operational profit margins are anticipated to improve post-autumn 2025 due to cost reduction measures [1][3]. - The non-selective business is projected to have revenue growth guidance of 10-13% year-on-year for Q4 FY25, aligning with market expectations [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 FY25, total revenue was $1.183 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2%, while revenue excluding selective business was $1.038 billion, reflecting a 21.2% increase [1][2]. - Adjusted operating profit for Q3 was $142 million, with a profit margin of 13.3%, slightly better than previous forecasts [1][2]. - The company expects non-GAAP operating profit margin to improve by approximately 1 percentage point in Q4 FY25 due to a low base effect [3]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for non-selective business are adjusted to $4.424 billion, $4.819 billion, and $5.538 billion for FY25, FY26, and FY27 respectively [4][10]. - Non-GAAP net profit estimates are revised to $457 million, $550 million, and $654 million for FY25, FY26, and FY27 respectively [4][10]. - The company anticipates a steady increase in revenue and profit margins, with a focus on enhancing management efficiency and optimizing expansion pace [3][4]. Valuation Analysis - The target price is set at $67.25 based on a 20x PE ratio for FY26E, reflecting the company's leading position in the education sector [4][13]. - The report highlights that the current demand for non-academic training remains strong, supporting the company's long-term growth potential [4][10].