苹果AI选择谷歌Gemini | 图源：AIG 作者／ IT时报 贾天荣 编辑／ 郝俊慧 孙妍 1月13日，苹果与谷歌共同宣布达成一项多年协议，苹果将在其下一代基础模型中采用谷歌Gemini技术，驱动包括即将推出的新版Siri在内的多项AI功能。 路透社评价称，这是谷歌取得的一场"重大胜利"。此前，谷歌的AI技术已为三星GalaxyAI提供支持，而此次与苹果的合作，意味着其技术将进入一个覆盖 超20亿台活跃设备的巨大市场。 苹果在声明中强调："经过仔细评估，我们认为谷歌的AI技术能为苹果基础模型提供最强的底层支持。" 目前，这笔协议的财务细节尚未披露。但资本市场反应迅速。消息公布后，谷歌母公司Alphabet收涨超1%，连续三日创历史新高，市值首次突破4万亿美 元。苹果股价也在七连跌后实现两连阳，小幅上涨。 与此同时，苹果AI团队正面临明显的人才流失。自去年以来，已有数十名核心成员离职。在模型能力、算力储备与人才结构上，苹果的短板集中显现。 这种内压之下，苹果迫切需要一个成熟、稳定、可规模化的AI底座。 AI，正在成为穿透一切估值逻辑的核心变量，也正在成为巨头们新的财富密码。 为什么是谷歌？ 2010年，当乔 ...

Core Viewpoint - The investment logic in the AI industry between China and the US shows significant divergence, stemming from differences in industrial foundations and development paths, but it is expected that the global AI industry will eventually converge towards Physical AI [1][2][3] Investment Logic Divergence - The current investment paths in AI are clearly differentiated, with US companies focusing on foundational research and core technologies, while China emphasizes application scenarios due to limitations in computing power [2][11] - The US investment is guided by the "Scaling Law," which prioritizes increasing computational power to enhance model quality, particularly in areas leading to Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) [2][11] - China leverages its vast AI talent pool and market space to achieve breakthroughs from the application side, particularly excelling in sectors like autonomous driving and robotics [3][12] Roots of Divergence - The divergence in investment logic is driven by the US's focus on foundational capabilities and model performance, while China's strengths lie in its manufacturing capabilities and industrial technology [3][12] - Historical examples from the internet industry illustrate that companies that effectively apply technology to consumer needs, like Facebook and Google, tend to be the most profitable [3][12] Shift in Market Focus - The previously high interest in AGI is waning, with market attention shifting towards Physical AI, which includes applications like robotics and autonomous vehicles [4][13] - Physical AI aligns well with China's current focus on robotics and autonomous driving, matching its industrial advantages [5][14] Future Trends in AI Investment - The US is expected to maintain significant capital expenditure in the chip sector, with major cloud service providers allocating 40-55% of their server spending to GPUs in 2024 [6][15] - The GPU capital expenditure in the US is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of over 50% from 2024 to 2026, with total data center capital spending expected to reach $1 trillion by 2028 [8][16] - The total investment in Physical AI in the US is anticipated to exceed $50 billion between 2025 and 2026, indicating a comprehensive approach from foundational research to commercialization [9][19] Major Investments in Physical AI - Significant investments are being made by US tech giants in Physical AI, with Tesla investing over $4 billion in its humanoid robot project, Nvidia over $10 billion in its AI platforms, and Google’s DeepMind allocating $5 billion for robotics research [9][17]

Alphabet Company and Industry Analysis Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Alphabet - **Sector**: Internet/e-Commerce - **Description**: Alphabet is a global technology company focused on search, advertising, operating systems, platforms, enterprise, and hardware products, generating revenue primarily through online advertising and app sales on Google Play [12][13]. Key Financial Metrics - **Stock Price**: 331.86 USD - **Price Objective**: 370.00 USD - **Market Value**: 4,120,042 million USD - **EPS Estimates**: - 2023A: 5.80 USD - 2024A: 8.04 USD - 2025E: 10.57 USD - 2026E: 11.13 USD - 2027E: 12.51 USD - **Revenue Estimates**: - 2026E: 397,318 million USD (up 16.5% YoY) - 2027E: 456,109 million USD (up 14.8% YoY) [5][9][25]. Core Insights Positive Outlook for 2026 - **AI Positioning**: Alphabet is well-positioned in the AI sector with strong assets like Gemini and TPUs, which could drive higher traffic monetization and cloud growth [2][28]. - **Traffic Monetization**: Shift to AI query results is expected to enhance traffic monetization, with AI-native formats potentially outperforming traditional search [36][40]. - **Cloud Growth**: Anticipated growth in Google Cloud revenues by 37% YoY in 2026, supported by Gemini and TPU differentiation [43][44]. - **Agentic AI Ecosystem**: New opportunities in the Agentic AI ecosystem could lead to increased commercial viability and valuation premium [2][50]. Risks and Challenges - **Competition**: Increasing competition in search and AI could impact Google's market share and sentiment [3][23]. - **Cost Pressures**: Rising AI costs and cloud sector overcapacity may affect margins and valuation [3][23]. - **Ad Growth Deceleration**: Slower growth in advertising could weigh on overall valuation [3][24]. Scenario Analysis - **Valuation Multiples**: Alphabet is trading at approximately 25x Street 2027 GAAP EPS, compared to S&P 500 at 21x. Historically, Alphabet has traded at a premium to the S&P [4][19]. - **Balanced Risk/Reward**: The analysis suggests a balanced risk/reward setup, with potential for further multiple expansion driven by AI-related catalysts [4][19]. Investment Rationale - **Long-term Positioning**: Alphabet is expected to benefit from increasing mobile and video usage, as well as connected device activity. The company is likely to trade at a premium due to its technology leadership and strong cash flow generation [13][22]. Additional Insights - **Gemini Traffic Growth**: Since the launch of Gemini 3.0, web traffic has increased significantly, indicating strong market interest and potential for future growth [28][29]. - **TPU Sales Potential**: Expanding TPU sales could create new revenue streams and enhance Alphabet's competitive position in AI [61]. - **Waymo's Growth**: Waymo's advancements in autonomous driving could represent a significant long-term growth opportunity not fully reflected in current valuations [61]. Conclusion Alphabet is positioned for substantial growth driven by its leadership in AI, cloud services, and innovative advertising solutions. However, it faces challenges from competition and cost pressures that could impact its valuation and market position. The investment outlook remains positive, with potential catalysts for growth in the coming years.

Core Insights - Agentic Commerce represents a significant shift in the way commerce operates, potentially transforming the landscape of internet advertising, e-commerce, and payment infrastructure if successfully implemented [2][5] - The article explores two main questions: 1) Can Agentic Commerce be commercially viable? 2) If successful, how will it reshape the distribution of benefits across the internet ecosystem? [5] Commercial Viability - The article reviews past failures of Meta and Google in e-commerce, contrasting their approaches with those of OpenAI and Perplexity, to identify which third-party models (3P) are most likely to succeed in the future [5][24] - The potential total addressable market (TAM) for three consumer behavior categories—Impulse Buys, Routine Essentials, and Life Purchases—is estimated to be $3 trillion, with Lifestyle and Functional Purchases being the most promising areas for Agentic Commerce [8][9] E-commerce Spectrum - E-commerce is described as a continuous spectrum, with Amazon and Shopify at opposite ends, defined by who acts as the Merchant of Record (MoR) [10][11] - The distinction between "Platform is the MoR" (e.g., Amazon) and "Merchant is the MoR" (e.g., Shopify) affects the business scale, merchant control over customer data, and the potential for disruption in payment systems [12][13] Agentic Commerce Paths - Perplexity and ChatGPT represent two different approaches to Agentic Commerce, with Perplexity acting as the MoR and ChatGPT allowing merchants to retain that role [14][19] - OpenAI's Agentic Commerce Protocol (ACP) decouples the front-end checkout experience from back-end payment processing, allowing merchants to maintain their existing payment service providers while integrating with ACP [15][18] Historical Context - Google and Meta's reluctance to become MoR contributed to their struggles in e-commerce, as they prioritized advertising revenue over the complexities of managing e-commerce transactions [24][26] - The article suggests that if Google or Meta had developed a protocol similar to ACP, their e-commerce trajectories might have been different [26] Impact on Advertising and Payment - The article discusses how Agentic Commerce could redefine the relationship between advertising costs and commission rates, likening both to a form of "digital tax" [32][33] - Shopify is positioned as a structural winner in the Agentic Commerce context, benefiting from its lack of MoR responsibilities and the potential for increased market penetration among small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) [38][39] Future Considerations - The article envisions a future where a Universal Catalog could be developed to facilitate AI-driven shopping experiences, requiring rich and structured metadata to support precise consumer needs [44]

Core Insights - Google has announced the launch of the next-generation open-source medical AI model MedGemma 1.5, which enhances support for medical imaging [1] - Concurrently, Google has released the open-source medical speech-to-text model MedASR [1] Group 1 - The new MedGemma 1.5 model focuses on improving capabilities in medical imaging [1] - The introduction of MedASR aims to facilitate medical transcription and improve accessibility in healthcare settings [1]

Core Insights - The launch of the Universal Commerce Protocol (UCP) by Google in collaboration with Shopify, Walmart, Target, Visa, and Stripe marks a significant shift in the e-commerce industry towards a new era of "conversation as transaction" [1][6][11] - Traditional e-commerce giants are facing immediate challenges as the UCP aims to standardize interactions that were previously controlled by centralized platforms [2][4][8] Group 1: UCP Overview and Implications - UCP is not just an API specification; it aims to create a universal language for e-commerce transactions, allowing AI agents to interact seamlessly with merchant systems [6][10] - The protocol threatens centralized e-commerce platforms by reducing the necessity for consumers to visit sites like Amazon or Taobao, as they can interact directly with AI agents [6][8] - UCP redefines human-computer interaction from a graphical interface to an intent-based interface, potentially diminishing the value of traditional platform features like homepage traffic and personalized recommendations [8][11] Group 2: Strategic Responses from Major Players - Amazon's absence from the UCP alliance signals a strategic choice to maintain its closed ecosystem, focusing on internal AI developments and reinforcing its control over its platform [13][14] - In contrast, Alibaba's Ant International actively embraces UCP, leveraging its extensive commercial ecosystem and payment capabilities to support AI-driven business growth [19][21] - The differing strategies highlight a fundamental divergence: Amazon seeks to fortify its existing model, while Alibaba aims to become a foundational infrastructure provider within the new open ecosystem [25][31] Group 3: Future Competitive Landscape - The competition in e-commerce will evolve across three levels: entry points dominated by AI assistants, infrastructure provided by companies like Shopify and Ant International, and the transformation of product information and service capabilities to be AI-friendly [27][28][29] - The UCP's establishment signals a shift from platform-centric competition to a broader contest over who can define the next generation of consumer interactions [29][39] - The future of commerce will require businesses to prepare for AI agents, marking a transition from an "attention economy" to an "intention economy" [40][41]

智通财经APP获悉，为了利用日益增长的可穿戴设备需求，Meta (META.US) 正与其合作伙伴依视路陆 逊梯卡(EssilorLuxottica)进行讨论，计划在 2026 年底前将具备 AI 功能的雷朋智能眼镜产量翻倍。 Meta 和依视路陆逊梯卡已经讨论了到今年年底实现 2000 万副或更多的生产目标，如果需要，还有潜力 增加到 3000 万副以上。 通过提升智能眼镜的产量，Meta希望扩大其在智能眼镜市场领先于竞争对手谷歌(GOOGL.US)的优势。 谷歌正通过对 Warby Parker 投资 1.5 亿美元，开发旨在全天佩戴的智能眼镜。这款搭载 Android XR 系 统的眼镜将于今年上市，产品线将包括音频类眼镜和显示类眼镜。 尽管这一消息对 Meta的股价提振有限，市场推测谷歌将会跟进 Meta 激进的生产目标。 目前，依视路陆逊梯卡每年的雷朋眼镜产量为 1000 万副。 这一雄心勃勃的生产目标突显了 Meta 加大人工智能投资的承诺，以及该公司对智能眼镜普及的信心。 上周，该公司表示由于"库存有限"和"前所未有的需求"，将推迟雷朋显示眼镜的国际扩张；同时，周一 有报道称，Meta 正在裁减 ...

Macroeconomic and Market Analysis - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on January 14, 2026, to introduce the full-year import and export situation for 2025, which is significant for assessing China's external demand performance and related industry prosperity [1][5] Sector Hotspots and Rotation - The U.S. has relaxed export controls on Nvidia's H200 chips to China, as announced on January 13, 2026. This adjustment, previously indicated by former President Trump, allows for the sale of this AI chip, with the U.S. Department of Commerce responsible for approval and security review, potentially benefiting the domestic semiconductor industry and AI-related sectors [2][6] Peripheral Markets and Related Assets - On Tuesday, U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.80%, Nasdaq down 0.10%, and S&P 500 down 0.19%. Large tech stocks showed mixed results, with Intel up over 7% and AMD up over 6%, while Micron and Qualcomm fell over 2%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index dropped 1.84%, with notable declines in Chinese concept stocks, which may exert pressure on A-share sentiment [3][7] Commodity Market Dynamics - In domestic commodity futures, methanol rose 2% to 2308.00 yuan, fuel oil increased 5% to 2560.00 yuan, silver surged 6% to 22336.00 yuan, and tin climbed 4% to 398380.00 yuan, indicating significant volatility in energy and base metals [4][8] - Internationally, spot gold reached a historical high of $4631.34 per ounce, with New York futures surpassing $4640 per ounce. Spot silver and New York futures both exceeded $89 per ounce, reflecting heightened market risk aversion [4][8]

Group 1: Photovoltaic Industry - The export tax rebate for photovoltaic products will be fully canceled starting April 1, 2026, increasing export costs for companies [2] - The export tax rebate for photovoltaic silicon wafers, batteries, and modules was previously reduced from 13% to 9% in December 2024, indicating a trend of declining export tax rates [2] - The Chinese photovoltaic industry has seen a decrease in export prices since 2024, leading to a "volume increase, price decrease" situation, with some companies passing on rebate amounts to foreign buyers, resulting in profit loss [2][3] - The cancellation of export tax rebates aims to promote rational competition in the photovoltaic industry and curb excessive price declines [3] Group 2: Elderly Care Robotics - Eight departments, including the Ministry of Civil Affairs, have issued measures to encourage the development of the elderly care robotics industry, promoting technological integration across various sectors [4] - The initiative aims to provide comprehensive intelligent support for the elderly, leveraging technologies such as embodied intelligence and new materials [4][5] - The market for elderly care technology products and services is expected to expand rapidly, although current technology maturity remains insufficient [5] Group 3: Real Estate Market in Tianjin - Tianjin will tighten control over new housing prices, limiting price changes to within 10% of the registered price for new sales permits [6] - The city has previously implemented price control measures to stabilize housing prices, with over 20 cities having introduced similar "price drop limits" [6][7] - The new management approach aims to control both price increases and decreases, although enforcing price decreases may face challenges [6] Group 4: AI and Technology Collaborations - Google and Apple have entered a strategic partnership, with Google's Gemini model being used to support Apple's AI developments, including Siri [8] - Apple is expected to pay approximately $1 billion annually to Google for technology licensing, indicating a significant investment in AI capabilities [8] - Nvidia and Eli Lilly have announced a $1 billion collaboration to establish a research lab focused on AI applications in the pharmaceutical industry, highlighting the growing intersection of AI and healthcare [10][11] Group 5: ByteDance's Stock Options - ByteDance's stock option price has increased from $44 in 2019 to $226.07 in January 2024, representing a rise of over 4 times [14] - The company is reportedly raising its valuation to between $350 billion and $370 billion as it continues to enhance employee compensation and stock option incentives [14][15] - ByteDance's strong financial performance and aggressive AI application strategy position it as a leading player in the tech industry, despite facing increasing policy risks in overseas markets [15]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market experienced a decline across major indices, with notable movements in specific sectors and companies, particularly in technology and banking [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On January 13, major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.80% at 49,191.99 points, the S&P 500 down 0.19%, and the Nasdaq Composite down 0.10% [1] - The KBW Bank Index fell by 1.3%, reflecting broader concerns in the banking sector [1] Group 2: Individual Company Performance - Intel's stock rose significantly by 7.33%, reaching a nearly two-year high, while its competitor AMD also saw an increase of over 6% [1] - Alphabet, Google's parent company, saw its stock increase by 1.24%, achieving a market capitalization of $4.05 trillion, following a significant partnership with Apple to support AI features [1] - JPMorgan Chase's stock fell by 4.19% despite exceeding market expectations for Q4 2025 revenue and earnings, due to an unexpected decline in investment banking fees [1] - Visa's stock dropped by 4.46%, amid concerns regarding the potential impact on credit card business profitability following President Trump's call for a 10% cap on credit card interest rates [1] Group 3: Sector Trends - The banking and payment sectors faced widespread pressure, with market sentiment influenced by regulatory concerns and profitability outlooks [1] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index, which tracks U.S.-listed Chinese companies, declined by 1.86%, with Pinduoduo's stock falling by over 5% [1]